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Kovach

Bitcoin Holds a Narrow RangeAs predicted yesterday, Bitcoin had prohibitive resistance at $19.5K, and was not able to even test the $20K's. There are numerous red triangles on the KRI suggesting that every attempt to do so was thwarted. We are currently testing $19.0K, the next level down, which we anticipated yesterday as well. So far it looks like this level is holding and if so, expect Bitcoin to drift between $19.0K and $19.5K, which is a very narrow range. Almost a $Billion worth of Bitcoin was taken off one exchange, which will result in a lack of liquidity and supports our idea of a slow drift until more signficant momentum can come through. We expect $18.6K to hold as a floor for now, with $20K as a ceiling.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by quantguy
The S&P at Pivotal CrossroadsThe S&P 500 has run into resistance at our level at 3758. We have predicted this to be the case yesterday. Recall that we should run into prohibitive resistance here, but if not, the next target is a relative high at 3810, which we anticipate to be a ceiling. Today is a make-or-break for stocks. If they can break out, then we will be able to test higher levels, but if not, the price action is likely to 'round off' and we may retrace the entire range to 3584 or find intermediate support at 3676.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Ethereum Rejection Soon?Ethereum has gained with the rest of the crypto markets as stocks gain and the US dollar softens. We were able to pivot from $1288 back to $1341, where we are currently running into resistance. We actually saw resistance at every step of the way with this rally as confirmed by red triangles on the KRI. It is unlikely we will break out from this level, but if we do, then we have a wide gulf before testing the next level at $1424. If we reject current levels, anticipate support at $1288, then $1235.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDShort
by quantguy
4
Can Exhuberance in Stocks Last?Stocks have gained after ' shrugging off ' yet another worse than expected inflation print. Additionally, traders seem hopeful of good earnings prints as banks lead the way , with strong numbers. All major indexes have risen sharply, with the S&P 500 touching our level at 3758, just below highs at 3810. The Kovach OBV has picked up sharply with the momentum, but we will see if this will last. Netflix earnings are today and there are serious questions about subscriber growth. In the event of a strong selloff, we could completely retrace this move, with 3584 likely to provide support yet again. If we are able to break through 3810, the next target is 3825.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Litecoin at the Base of the RangeLitecoin has equilibrated, tending to the lower bound of the range it has been holding for the past month. This lower bound was breached as CPI data on Thursday rocked the entire crypto market. Incredible volatility was introduced but we were quickly able to reestablish equilibrium. We are currently seeing support at $50.64, which is the final technical level in the $50's. We are likely to see further resistance from $51.92, but if we can break through that, we will recover the range between these two lower levels and $55.84, which we anticipate will hold as an upper bound.
BITSTAMP:LTCUSDShort
by quantguy
2
Ethereum Struggles with the $1300'sEthereum got a boost from $1288, after testing below it briefly. We saw green triangles on the KRI as we dipped below this level, confirming support. The Kovach OBV has flatlined, suggesting that we will need more momentum to reach higher levels, though we have recovered the bottom of the $1300 handle for now. We are running into resistance confirmed by two red triangles on the KRI around $1320, so unless ETH can find a burst of momentum, it is not likely that we will hold these levels. If we are able to break through then $1341 is the next target. Anticipate support at $1288 again, or below at $1235 if we retrace.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDShort
by quantguy
2
Can Bitcoin Hold $19K?Bitcoin has equilibrated around the base of the $19K handle. This follows a great deal of volatility introduced by CPI last Thursday. We are seeing quite a few green triangles on the KRI at $19K indicating strong support here. But if we fall further, then $18.6K will provide support with $17.6K a floor price for now. A rally will encounter resistance at $19.5K, then $20K. The latter will provide significant resistance which we anticipate will be prohibitive at this time.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by quantguy
2
Can Oil Break Out Again?Oil has continued its corrective pattern as we have fallen from the $90's, back deep into the mid $80's. The corrective impulse took us back to $85.55, which dedicated readers will remember is a strong support level. We have seen green triangles on the KRI to confirm support every time this level has been tested. The Kovach OBV has flattened, suggesting we will need another strong burst of momentum before we are able to press higher. If so, $88.74 is the next immediate target which we will need to break before $90.06, the barrier to the $90's. If we retrace further the next target from below is $84.75.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by quantguy
Stocks Retrace GainsThe S&P 500 has found support at 3584 after the CPI dip tested the base of the 3500 handle. We have since solidly recovered the 3500's, with a strong burst of momentum breaking through to 3714, where a red triangle on the KRI confirmed resistance. We then fell back to support at 3584, and are currently seeing an attempt at a pivot. We identified 3617 and 3624 as two levels where we would see resistance and that is exactly what we are seeing. A red triangle on the KRI is confirming resistance at these levels. If we are able to break past them, expect further resistance at 3714. If we retrace, then 3584 should hold, otherwise the base of the 3500 handle should hold as a floor.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
1
Litecoin Recovers the $50'sLitecoin tumbled through our support levels at the base of the $50 handle, testing $49, before a swift buy-back clawed back the $50 handle. We broke through our level at $50.64 and are currently testing $51.92. It appears as though we may recover the range it has been holding for the past month, between $51.92 and $55.84. We will need more momentum to come through before we can teset the upper bound again, where we expect resistance to hold. Otherwise, $50.64 should hold as a lower bound.
BITSTAMP:LTCUSDShort
by quantguy
Ethereum Claws Back the $1300'sEthereum dipped deep into the $1100's after US CPI indicated yet again that inflation remains high, beating expectations. The dip was swiftly bought back, and we recovered the $1200's almost immediately, breaking through our level at $1235. Currently, appear to be making a run for the high $1300's with $1341 a barrier for now. Readers should have been prepared for resistance here, as we have highlighted this level daily for a while. Red triangles on the KRI are confirming resistance at this level. If we break through, then the next target is $1424, but this is ambitious. If we retrace, $1235 should provide support.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDShort
by quantguy
3
Bitcoin Recovers After SelloffBitcoin sold off sharply after US CPI showed that inflation was yet again hotter than expected. This confirms the Fed's rate hike trajectory, which some were hoping would pivot after signs of inflation cooling. Initially, Bitcoin sold off hard with the news, breaking through our level at $18.6K. But soon after the selloff, Bitcoin pivoted and recovered the losses. We quickly recovered back to the $19K's, breaking through $19.0K with ease and then $19.5K. Dedicated readers should have been prepared for resistance at $20K, as we have been highlighting this as a barrier for Bitcoin for a while. Sure enough, we are currently facing resistance here. We will need a lot more momentum to break through to recover the $20K's. Expect support in the $19K's, with $18.6K a floor price for now.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by quantguy
Volatility in the DXY After US DataThe US dollar has been a bit volatile after US CPI and Retail Sales data. We initially rallied a bit, breaking through 113.38, but sharply retraced back to support in the mid 112's. We appear to be equilibrating in this range, continuing the sideways correction, we anticipated earlier this month. We are in a fairly wide range, with the lower bound at 111.37 and a high above at 114.54. We expect this range to continue as the markets equilibrate and find footing after this week's data.
TVC:DXY
by quantguy
Stocks React to CPI and Retail SalesStocks took a sharp dive after yet another hotter than expected CPI print. We tested 3500, then dip-buyers came in and we subsequently pivoted back to recover the 3600's. More momentum followed and we are currently testing our target highs at 3714. Stocks still look strong despite another flaccid data point in retail sales, which came in relatively weak. If we are able to break through highs, then 3810 is the next target. Otherwise, we can expect support at 3624.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Gold Tests Lower LevelsGold has broken down from $1670, finding support at $1658 before equilibrating after the hotter than expect CPI data. Support was confirmed by a green triangle and we were able to recover, testing $1658 one more time before tending toward $1670 again. The Kovach OBV is pretty flat, suggesting we may waver around current levels before we see another significant move. We can expect a great deal of resistance above, especially at $1683, which is the lower anchor of our previous Fibonacci levels. If we break through $1658, there is a vacuum zone below to $1640.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by quantguy
Litecoin Breaks Support!Litecoin has slipped from support at $51.92, which has provided support all month. We are currently testing $50.64, which is a level we have mentioned many times here in these reports, and one dedicated readers should remember. This is our expectation for a lower bound, and if this does not hold the next support level is $45.48, deep in the $40 handle. If we are able to pivot from here, we must break through $51.92 again before considering $55.84 again, the upper bound of the range.
BITSTAMP:LTCUSDShort
by quantguy