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Kovach

Relief Rally in Bitcoin Stalls at $20KBitcoin rallied off of a bid in risk-on assets, as investors become hopeful that the Fed will pivot from their hawkish stance. Risk-on assets have rallied, and the sentiment has bled into the crypto markets, with Bitcoin breaking through $19.5K. We are meeting resistance at $20K, which is anticipated. If we are able to break through then we will meet immediate resistance at $20.7K. We are meeting resistance at current levels confirmed by a red triangle on the KRI, and if we reject this level, then $19.5K or $18.6K are sure to provide support.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by quantguy
Stocks Rally Expecting A Fed PivotThe S&P 500 rallied off of increased confidence that the Fed will pivot their pervasively hawkish stance. This is likely to be transient and the market was due for a relief rally, anyway. We are currently testing a dense patch of levels in the 3740's, and will face significant resistance here. If we can break through, then 3792 is the next target. If we reject current levels, the most likely scenario, we should have support from 3714 or so, at the base of the 3700 handle.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Can Ethereum Regain $1300?Ethereum has edged lower with the rest of the crypto market. We have pulled back further and further from $1341, our support level above. Multiple red triangles on the KRI confirm resistance to the upside. We made a run deeper into the $1200's, but have found some meager support and are currently hugging the $1300. If we see more momentum come through, the next target is $1341 which is sure to provide resistance. As a floor, we should expect $1235 to provide support.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDShort
by quantguy
6
Will Bitcoin Test Lower Levels?Bitcoin has been meandering between $18K and $19K, maintaining a very narrow range. The Kovach OBV has completely leveled off and is starting to turn downwards and the price wanes. This suggesets we will most likely maintain the range between $18.6K and $19.5K, unless some momentum comes through either way. Gloom in risk-on markets suggests another dump is likely before any serious buying occurs. If so, we can expect $18.6K to provide support, then $17.6K after that. We are placing some limit orders at $17.6K, as this is a significant low and a likely floor price for now.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by quantguy
1
OPEC Lifts OilOil has dipped into the $70's again, but has regained the $80's following reports that OPEC will cut production . We blasted through lower levels in the $80's, and are currently retesting $83.21, with a red triangle on the KRI confirming resistance. If momentum continues, we have several more levels to cross before our target of $85.55. Depending on how much OPEC cuts, this could drive prices back to the $100's again in the longer term. Expect support at the base of the $80 handle if we reject current levels.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy
More Gloom For Stocks?The S&P 500 has edged lower yet again, showing little buying interest even at these levels. The fourth quarter has just begun and all indications point to more gloom for stocks. We have broken our level at 3584, finding support just above the next level down at 3547. Multiple green triangles on the KRI are suggesting good support here at these levels, but the lack of a buyback suggests we are not out of the woods yet. We are looking incredibly oversold and due for a pullback. If so, we must break through 3610 and 3617, which seem to be providing significant resistance. If we edge down yet again, then 3547 is the next target.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
1
Can Gold Regain $1700?Gold prices have lifted as risk-off assets rally. We have clawed our way back through the mid $1600's and have hit $1683. We appear to be encountering resistance here, which is to be expected as this is a major level. The Kovach OBV has risen, but has flatlined, indicating that we will need more momentum to properly break out. If so, $1692 is our next target, and we are sure to encounter further resistance as we head toward the $1700 handle. If we retrace, anticipate support at $1670 or $1658.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by quantguy
Bitcoin Attempts a BreakoutBitcoin has established value in the mid $19K's and appears to be making an attempt to break out. At the time of this writing we are seeing a wick above $19.5K, a strong level of resistance and upper bound to the bull wedge BTC was forming. The Kovach OBV is incredibly bullish suggesting a divergence in price that is being realized at this moment. We are currently running into resistance at $20K, but if we can break through then $20.7K will provide resistance, and is our next target. If we retrace, then $19.5K or $18.6K will provide support.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by quantguy
Will the $80's Hold for Oil?Oil has weakened with the price action rounding off at $83.21. We are currently seeing support at the base of the $80 handle with the level at $80.00 holding strong for now. We have several green triangles on the KRI confirming support. The Kovach OBV has dipped with the selloff, and we will need more momentum to come through in order to establish higher levels. If we break down further, then $78.90 or $77.56 are the next levels where we can anticipate support.
NYMEX:CL1!
by quantguy
Bitcoin Gains Off Dollar Selloff and Risk On PivotBitcoin pivoted off of $18.6K. We anticipated support off of this level, and a bid in risk-on assets combined with a selloff in the USD was able to lift BTC to $19.5K. Currently, this level is offering significant resistance, although the Kovach OBV has picked up a bit. We don't anticipate much more action, but if so, $20K is a likely ceiling. We expect a retracement back to $18.6K, and if that does not hold, then $17.6K is a likely floor.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by quantguy
3
DXY Sells off As the Euro and Sterling RallyThe DXY saw the retracement we have been discussing today, owing to a massive rally in the Sterling and Euro after the BoE bought UK bonds. This is likely to be temporary, as persistent hawkish Fed rhetoric is likely to keep interest rates high in the US, boosting the dollar further. We are currently seeing support in the 112.70's just a bit below where we anticipated support at 113 or so. If things continue to go south, we could retrace all the way back to 111.37, otherwise we will likely make a run for highs again.
TVC:DXYLong
by quantguy
Gold PivotsGold caught a massive bid off Bonds and the selloff in the US dollar. We broke several levels above to finally run out of steam exactly at our level of 1670. Although the Kovach OBV picked up, resistance kicked in and we appear to be taking a breather. It is likely that the rally is transient and we will retrace soon. The first level to provide support will be 1658, then after that we have a vacuum zone back to 1640. If we continue to rally, 1683, the base of our levels before using inverse Fibonacci extensions to predict lower levels, will be the next target.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by quantguy
Can Litecoin Hold the $50's?Litecoin made a run for $55.84 as we mentioned in the reports yesterday. This proved to be a hard upper bound, as anticipated, and prices quickly retraced back to support in the low $50's. Currently, $51.92 is holding, and this should come as no surprise to dedicated readers who have heard this level called out over and over again. If support does not hold then $50.64 is the final barrier between the $40 and $50 handles. If we are able to pivot, we could potentially test $55.84 again, but we are sure to encounter steep resistance here again.
BITSTAMP:LTCUSDShort
by quantguy