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Kovach

King Dollar Marches OnThe US dollar has broken out, as we anticipated yesterday. We inched above highs established at 114.54. Although red triangles on the KRI are confirming resistance at these highs, we appear to have broken out from the bull wedge pattern discussed yesterday. If we are able to break through then our next target is a bit aggressive at 120.66. However we are likely to meet resistance at several levels before then. If we retrace, then we could go as low as 111.37, but this is unlikely as a range was established with a bottom at about 113, which we expect to hold once again.
TVC:DXYLong
by quantguy
Litecoin Pivots from the Low $50'sLitecoin benefited from a massive rally in crypto, pivoting off of $51.92. We crossed the vacuum zone with ease and are currently testing the next level at $55.84. This level should be very familiar to dedicated readers. As anticipated, we are seeing resistance here, confirmed by a red triangle on the KRI. If the rally continues, we could easily make a run for the $60 handle. If we reject current levels then $51.92 is sure to provide support again.
BITSTAMP:LTCUSDShort
by quantguy
Ethereum Pivots, Regaining the $1300'sEthereum found good support just above our level at $1235 with green triangles on the KRI suggesting strong support around $1280. From there, we experienced a massive rally, in the face of persistent malaise among risk-on assets. We broke through $1341, the next level above, with ease. We are currently facing resistance, confirmed by a red triangle on the KRI, at $1380 or so. If we are able to break through then $1424 is the next target, with $1547 a likely ceiling. If we reject current levels, then $1235 is likely to provide support.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDShort
by quantguy
Thoughts on Bitcoin's RallyA strong buying impulse in Bitcoin pushed us past $19.5K and hit our target and anticipated ceiling of $20K. As anticipated, we are seeing extreme resistance here, confirmed by a red triangle on the KRI. The Kovach indicators are very strong, suggesting that this rally has some momentum behind it. This stands in stark contrast to persistent selloffs in virtually every other risk-on asset. One possible explanation for this this is inflows from the Russian market seeking to fund their exodus from a potential draft. If the rally continues, we are sure to meet further resistance at $20.7K, with $22.4K as a likely ceiling. If we reject current levels, then $18.6K should provide support once more.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by quantguy
1
Will Support Hold for Stocks?The S&P 500 is still in bear-mode, though it appears to have found some support at 3645 as we reported yesterday. We do appear to be seeing some meager consolidation with a narrow range forming between this lower bound and 3714. A red triangle on this level confirms strong resistance. The Kovach OBV does appear to be trekking upward, which may indicate that a relief rally is due. If so, it is not likely we will be able to break past 3749. If we sell off further, 3624 is the next target.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Ethereum To Test Lower Levels?Ethereum has tested our level at $1341 several times over the weekend, but it has provided significant resistance with several red triangle on the KRI confirming resistance. We are gradually trending down with the rest of the crypto markets, meandering in the vacuum zone between this level and $1235. The latter should hold as a lower bound, but if not, then $1100 is the next target. The Kovach OBV is abysmally bearish which could suggest an impending relief rally. If so, watch $1341 as a ceiling.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDShort
by quantguy
4
DXY Blasts Through Highs, What's Next?The DXY has blasted through highs, one of the only assets we cover that is benefitting from the current state of the economy and the outlook of the Fed. We have resorted to Fibonacci extensions to project the next targets. Our next target of 114.54 was hit to the tick, and as anticpated, we are pulling back a bit from this target. Support in the 113's is holding strong and the dollar is expected to continue to gain strength. There is a vacuum zone through two full handles back to 111.37, a target just a few days ago. This level now serves as a floor price in the event of a technical correction. Our next target is quite bold at 120.66.
TVC:DXYLong
by quantguy
New Relative Lows in OilPersistent rececession fears have slammed oil. A momentous selloff has blasted through the $80's, digging deeply into the $70's, currently feeling out the high $77's at the time of this writing. We are getting support from just above $77.56, but are edging lower and things are looking very bearish. The Kovach OBV has pressed lower and is showing little signs of relief. If we are able to pivot, then $80 should be a ceiling, with $76.16 the next target to the downside.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by quantguy
S&P 500 Slammed AgainThe S&P 500 has been slammed by recession fears, a hawkish Fed, pervasive risk-off themes in the news, and a potentially disastrous hurricane barreling toward the gulf of Mexico (oil refinery hub) and Florida. We have completely given up the 3700's, and are deep into the 3600's with 3645 providing support at the moment. The Kovach OBV is hugging lows and appears to be very oversold. A relief rally could attempt 3700 again, but otherwise the sentiment is extraordinarily bearish. Our next target is 3624.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Bitcoin Maintans the Range After FOMCBitcoin saw some volatility from the FOMC yesterday. We did not get the 'dovish hike' that the markets expected and risk-on assets responded accordingly. We did see support from $18.6K (as anticipated and voiced here in these reports). We are currently seeing a meager pivot off of this level, but there is very little momentum associated with it, so we don't expect to break the next level at $19.5K. If we do, $20K is the next target and we should see resistance there. If $18.6K does not hold, $17.6K will surely provide support.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by quantguy
Bitcoin Quiet Ahead of FOMCBitcoin caught a bit of a pivot from $18.6K, which has provided strong support before. It held strong again as Bitcoin tested it with another dump from $19.5K. Strong support was confirmed with green triangles on the KRI. We made another run for $19.5K, but this was immediately rejected, as we mentioned in yesterday mornings report. It is unlikely BTC will have the strength to break this level any time soon, but if it does, then $20.7K is the next target. If we dump again, $18.6K should hold but if not, then $17.6K should be considered an absolute floor. Watch for ranging before the FOMC at 2 PM EST.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by quantguy
2
DXY Tests Highs Ahead of FOMCThe DXY made a run for highs yesterday as we had one more rally in yields just before the FOMC. We are currently flirting with highs, with a wick peaking past 110.75 to 110.86 or so. We will need to solidly break this if we are able to hit our next target at 111.37. We don't expect too much action until the Fed rate hike today at 2 PM EST. We are expected to see a 75 bps rate hike, with some small probability of a 100 bps increase. If we see a retracement after the release, we should see support at 110.20, with further support in the 109's, and a floor of 108.50. If we rally, then 111.37 is our next target.
TVC:DXYShort
by quantguy
1
Stocks Brace for the FOMCThe small rally we saw in stocks yesterday was quickly batted down. We managed to make a run for 3909, which was our target and lower bound of some congestion from earlier this month. However, we promptly rejected that level, as anticipated, and immediately sought support again at lows just above 3825. The markets, usually quiet before an FOMC, reacted out of one last burst of fear for the impending meeting today at 2PM EST. It is expected that we will get yet another 75 bps rate hike, with some saying it could be as high as 100 bps. After this, it is likely that we see a relief rally that could test the 3900's again, with 4009 being the ultimate target for a rally. If we sell off again then we should have support at the base of the 3800's.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy