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Kovach

Bitcoin Slammed as Investors Prepare for the Fed Rate HikeBitcoin got slammed as investors brace for another rate hike this week. All risk-on assets are selling off with Dow futures falling 200 points, and the S&P 500 testing relative lows. Bitcoin gave up the $20K's, finding support at $19.5K for a bit. Last night support gave and we tumbled further to support at $18.6K. We are currently seeing support here confirmed by a green triangle on the KRI, but it's also looking quite weak. Additionally, there is a lack of a pivot, suggesing that investors are still not enticed to buy back at these levels. If the selloff continues, then $17.6K is the next target. If we are able to pivot we will likely see strong resistance at $19.5K or $20K.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by quantguy
'The Merge' Hangover Slams EthereumEthereum has dumped, despite the fact that the long awaited 'merge' finally happened yesterday. We have been warning you not to get too excited over this and that it would probably end up in a pump and dump. As predicted, we got slammed back to the $1400's from just below $1800. The selloff coincided nicely with a tanking stock market, in addition to gold, and bonds. We appear to be seeing strong support at $1424, confirmed by green triangles on the KRI. Our next level of support below is $1341.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDShort
by quantguy
2
Can The DXY Make New Highs?The US dollar rallied and the DXY has just about recovered highs established before the markets got hopeful and started to price in a plateauing CPI. The DXY fell to the 107's, but promptly regained footing when inflation came out hotter than expected. The Fed is expected to raise rates by up to 100 bps yet again, which is fueling yields and the dollar's rally. We are right at one of our levels at 110.20, the final level before highs. If we can break this, then 111.37 is the next target.
TVC:DXYLong
by quantguy
1
What to Expect with Stocks?Stocks got slammed yesterday after retail sales suggested several areas of the economy are being hurt by inflation. The Fed is still expected to hike rates, and some fear that this will tip us deeper into a recession. Stocks closed lower, extending the worst selloff in over two years. We broke support here at 3887, and appear to be testing 3867, but a green triangle on the KRI appears to be suggesting we are finding support here. The Kovach OBV has taken a sharp dive, and does not appear to be showing many signs of picking up. If we are able to pivot, we will have several levels to break through in the 3900's before we can consider the 4K's again.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
How Will 'The Merge' Impact Ethereum?As predicted yesterday, Ethereum saw great support at $1547, confirmed by multiple green triangles on the KRI. We are currently ranging, bouncing back and forth between this level and $1653. Recall that $1653 is the first of a series of resistance levels which extend through the $1700's. These are sure to provide resistance unless serious momentum comes through. We are seeing the anticipated lack of enthusiasm over 'the merge' which happened about 4 hours ago at the time of this writing.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDShort
by quantguy
Litecoin Rejects Higher LevelsLitecoin showed real promise of regaining the $60's or pressing higher. We spiked up to $66.96, achieving yet another level higher than $64.37, our previous target. However we rejected this level hard, and smashed through $64.37 back to the base of support at $60. Currently we are clinging onto $60 for dear live, with the price at the time of this writing sitting about $59.47 or so. If this does not hold then $55.84 should provide support. If not, we expect the base of the $50's to hold as a floor for now.
BITSTAMP:LTCUSDShort
by quantguy
Ethereum Dumps As CPI Comes in HotEthereum was trekking in the $1700's yesterday, after making an attempt for $1800, which failed earlier this week. After CPI data came in, it dumped back down to $1547, which was our target from yesterday. We are currently finding good support there, but if not, $1424 is the next level down. If we are able to pivot we will face immediate resistance from $1653, and a cluster of levels in the $1700's. We warned you not to get too excited about 'the merge', which some thought would take ETH back to $2K or higher, and this is exactly why.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDShort
by quantguy
How Will CPI and the Fed Impact the Crypto Market?Bitcoin was edging higher, hoping that a reasonable CPI print yesterday would give risk on assets the green light to rally. Unfortunately, CPI came in red hot, suggesting that the Fed will double down their tightening efforts in order to get it under control. Bitcoin rejected $22.4K, and smashed through $20.7K. Currently we are clinging to support at $20K with $19.5K the next level to provide support. It will take some time for BTC to recover from this, but we must break through $22.4K before considering higher levels.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by quantguy
How Yesterday's CPI Impacted the US DollarThe DXY rallied massively, one of the only assets to benefit off a strong CPI reading which suggests the Fed will double down on their efforts to curb inflation. We had broken down into the 107's, then blasted through two handles to the 109's again. We are currently in the midst of our levels between 109.26 and 109.86, after testing and rejecting 109.86. We have to break through 110.20 before we can establish new highs and make a run for our next target at 111.37. If we retrace, 108.50 should provide support.
TVC:DXYLong
by quantguy
What Yesterday's CPI Means for the Fed and StocksA hotter than expected CPI print tanked stocks yesterday, wiping out this week's rally and then some. The markets were hoping that CPI, which is the Fed's favorite inflation gauge, would show that inflation is plateauing and that their policies are working. Under these assumptions it would be reasonable to think that after September's rate hike, they would take a more dovish position. However with red hot inflation beating expectations, this is clearly not the case, and some think the Fed will double down on their stance, hiking rates to 100 bps when 50 bps was more likely just a few days prior. The S&P 500 responded accordingly, smashing through the 4000's, and reestablishing the 3000's, finally finding support at our level at 3928. It is likely the markets will equilibrate as we digest CPI, so expect the S&P to remain bounded by 3909 and 4009 for now. We will need to wait for more data to come out this week (retail sales on Thursday and University of Michigan sentiment on Friday) to get a clearer picture of the state of the economy, and how the markets will react further.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Stocks Edge Higher Ahead of CPI DataStocks have edged higher, breaking through to our next target of 4122, exactly as we predicted yesterday. Stocks are up ahead of key US inflation data, expected to come in at 8.0% , which is still high, but hopefully at least plateauing. It looks like we are meeting some resistance as confirmed by red triangles accumulating on the KRI. The Kovach OBV is still strong but may be rounding off slightly. While we may be in for a retracement, if momentum can sustain, then 4144 or 4178 are reasonable targets. If we reject current levels watch 4068 for support.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
DXY Weakens, Awaits CPIThe US dollar has edged lower, breaking through 108.50. We are now in the (fairly wide) vacuum zone to 107.20. It does look like we are finding support just above 107.20. It is expected that CPI today at 8:30 AM EST will suggest that inflation is plateauing, therefore the Fed can ease their hawkish rhetoric. Easier monetary policy would hit the dollar hard, as its been benefiting from higher yields this quarter. If we can rally, 108.50 will be a target, if we reject current levels 107.20 should provide support.
TVC:DXYShort
by quantguy
Can Ethereum Hold the $1700's?Ethereum made a run for $1800, falling just short of this target, and careening through several levels of support below. We have broken into that cluster of levels in the mid $1700's that we have discussed many times, and appear to be finding support just above $1653, a familiar level tested by ETH from above and below many times as of late. This level should continue to provide support, but if not, then $1547 should provide further support if we break through. If we are able to pivot, we will see if ETH has enough momentum to break through to our target of $1821, but we will need to see more momentum come through.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDShort
by quantguy
Ethereum Makes a Run for $1800Ethereum has broken past significant resistance levels in the $1700's and made a run for $1800. We fell just short of this target, topping out at $1790 or so, in the middle of the vacuum zone between $1748 and $1821. We are seeing quite a few red triangles on the KRI suggesting strong resistance. If we are able to break through $1821, then $1872 is the next target. We should have further support in the $1700's if prices continue to fall, with $1653 being our anticipated floor price for now.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSD
by quantguy