Kraken
Triangle Formation - Decision point inboundI've just noticed this, strong support and a short term resistance forming a triangle to be broken. Given the strength of the support line, if it's broken downward I'll take that as a decision to go short, otherwise holding and staying long even if it breaks through sideways. But in any case, the news seems good in that we will know either way where the trend is going when this is completed. It would be a positive to see LTCBTC dictating USD cost as opposed to being stuck with BTC's movements, the break up might give us a chance to break the recent high of 36$, and from there the ATH of 48$ isn't all that far away.
As always, good luck.
Bitcoin Reality 2I believe Bitcoin is between 20% and 40% into the 2017 bull run.
I refer readers to my first idea on the subject, Bitcoin Reality -
It is important to note the following:
1. Always use a logarithmic chart for Bitcoin. If there is any phenomenon that should be charted log instead of linear, it is Bitcoin!
2. Compare the long term log chart movements from Bitcoin's history with today. Bitcoin has a unique supply / demand dynamic. Read more in the original Bitcoin Reality post. My preference is for comparing the first part of the 2013 run-up with today, as we are in a similar moment fundamentally (see original post for more details).
3. Do not over-think on short time scales. I listed a few examples of rational and reasonable trades that have failed over the past few weeks in Bitcoin Reality . There were many more and there are a lot more to come. Look for yourself. In 2013 there was a bear trap of 50% in the second part of the run-up, when Bitcoin dropped from around $700 to $350 and came back again within a week before blowing past $1000. We have seen nothing of that scale yet, but it will likely happen at least once (with several more mid-size examples) before the definitive 2017 all time high is set.
Good luck everyone.
ETC correcting to near the channel bottom.As seen in the previous impulse leg, we went back to areas around the last market structure high. Similar action could happen again, for potential targets consider the bottom of the channel, the 0.618 fib retracement and the high of the last impulse move. We have broken support around the 0.382 retracement level and seeing a little pullback from the down move, good time to enter the market short. Plain and simple.
XRP/XBT Ripple needs more time. Slow grind...Though we did have a break out of the downtrend channel, I would like to see XRP Ripple get outside the potential sideways range. I am still on the sidelines until I see a decisive break above that sideways potential action... slow grind ahead it seems. I doubt it will re-enter the downtrend channel as pictured but needs to remain above the long term support line... could be some time yet folks...
XRP/XBT Ripple still languishing. Some trading possibilities..I'm not feeling super confident on this one or else all eyes are just lying in wait for this trend to make up it's mind. I think people are still watching bitcoin overall for direction too. I'll keep the faith on Ripple but charts don't lie. There may be a better buying opportunity yet to come... Just my gut plus chart action.
XRP/XBT Ripple thoughts.. major inflection point nearThe near term crypto market bias has been down the last few days since Bitcoin melted down shocking the entire crypto space. As much as I want to believe Ripple has the potential for some intense buying because everyone thinks this is the bottom, keep in mind it might shoot up to the moon because of that pressure and then fall right back to primary support line because of the overall market bias.... be careful and don't be afraid to take profits on the initial spike... All eyes have been on bitcoin and many of the cryptos has been mirroring bitcoin price action. A lot of people are nervous. Trade carefully.
ETHEUR: Long term view, chart of all chartsThis is how the Ethereum chart looks, plotted against the Euro using Kraken data. It has been the most reliable instrument to perform analysis on this pair, together with $ETHBTC from the Poloniex feed. Currently, we are tracing a daily, weekly and monthly uptrend. Periodically, smaller timeframes might be in a consolidation or retracement phase, to then rejoin the big picture trend in the monthly.
Right now, we can anticipate higher prices all month, courtesy of the daily and weekly signals depicted in yellow and turquoise. This weekend is loaded with fundamental events that can further boost this rally, so I think it is logical to see $ETHEUR hit the daily and weekly top target zones in time or even earlier than expected.
After the time expires for these signals, we could commence a consolidation phase, which can take a myriad of shapes, and isn't predictable yet, other than on a time duration basis. Normally, the market will absorb supply from profit taking, which takes a proportional amount of time to the rally itself, so it is logical to observe what Tim West has noted in his 'Time at Mode' proprietary method. So far, this methodology has served me well, and I would be glad to share the benefits of it with people interested in trading these powerful trends. Tim is working on new material currently, you can pm me or him to learn more about it.
Now, on to the trading reccomendation aspect, if you're long, consider average volatility to determine your position sizing. During a trend, it is reccomended to gain exposure, and while consolidating, trimming it back down, or outright taking profits. Don't risk more than a 10% drawdown on a worst case scenario basis if trading long term, it will be hard to recover otherwise.
Keep your coins safe in hardware wallets like the Trezor or Ledger nano, and make sure you do your due diligence when it comes to cybersecurity, and exposure to centralized exchange risk and margin trading.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
XRPXBT - Bull Trend still being respected.Quick publishing, sorry for the messy chart, but I'm seeing stuff and very few people are noticing. Trying to spread the word here. I might be very wrong but I prefer to publish it and have it wrong instead of being right and not spread the word before hand. Anyways, I see a very good buying opportunity for XRP. The bull trend has been respected so far. Support was broken but the low price trend line held perfectly on the 4hour, plus the bull divergence forming just as it did on May 8-9, (on red on the MACD and RSI ). Anyways, follow this if you're interested or just want have some good laughs if I get this wrong. I don't have any targets yet but if it keeps on this bull trend, I would expect at least a new ATH 0.51% next week.
Red arrows is kind of what I expect. Again, this was done very quick on a chart that's kind of messy. Maybe I'll publish a cleaner one later.
XBTEUR: Update and potential weekly targetIn this chart I examine the trend since $XBTEUR bottomed after the Bitfinex hack induced correction. The weekly chart reveals an uptrend time and price target that can guide us in the coming weeks. It appears like we can reach a peak in sentiment and consolidate or get a correction after we reach this zone in the next 2 weeks.
The daily chart will guide us in the next few days, keep an eye on sentiment and news stories related to $BTC.
Best of luck,
Ivan Labrie.
Disclaimer: I'm holding longs in $BTC among other cryptocurrencies.
XBTEUR: Long term forecast updateThis is how the Bitcoin chart looks right now. The long term uptrend is active until the end of 2017, and after that, we have an ample range of choices, with a likely consolidation or retracement starting. Once we approach or surpass the long term target on chart, we might enter a bubble phase, so it is logical to see a correction or consolidation of a large scale in Bitcoin.
I know people will hate me for saying this, I already had some people saying I was crazy when showing them this idea before publishing, but it is what the charts show. In the short term I see a 17% upside give or take, after which we may see a small correction. The rally and the break out are legit right now, so this is what makes the most sense to me currently. I hold 24% account in $BTC give or take, for full disclosure.
Best of luck, and see you at the target by year end...or higher with some luck!
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.