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KWEB

The Week Ahead: XBI, ARKF, ARKG, BITO, ARKK, KWEB, IWM/RUTEarnings: TSLA (63/69). Announces on Wednesday after market close, so if you're looking to play the volatility contraction, look to put on a play in the waning hours of Wednesday's session or, if implied volatility afterglow persists, early Thursday after it has made its move. If NFLX earnings is any indication of whether TSLA will "behave," you may want to consider waiting until after the announcement to avoid a repeat of "the Netflix experience." As it is, the January 28th options are pricing in something bigly: +/- $82 or so, so 862 on the put side, 1026. Exchange-Traded Funds Screened for Rank >70%/30-Day >35%, Implied Volatility Rank Ordered: Cathie Woods' funds continue to have a really bad hair day/week/month ... . XBI (100/48) ARKF (97/59) ARKG (87/66) BITO (82/85) ARKK (82/62) KWEB (74/58) EWZ (51/40) Pictured here is a bullish assumption BITO March 18th 17 short put, paying .60 at the mid price on buying power of 16.40. The broker is still requiring it to be cash-secured, so the ROC %-age is not all that sexy: 3.7% at max (25.0% annualized) as a function of buying power effect. Because of that, I would consider slapping on a cheap put to bring in the buying power effect, but the best you can currently do is to buy the 13, making it into a four-wide paying .38, and that amount isn't particularly compelling, particularly if you're going to be taking profit at 50% max. The ROC %-age is way better (9.5% at max), but I'd rather look at a setup where the long leg costs something like .05-.10, so I may stick a pin in that trade; lower strikes may populate at some point. Broad Market Exchange-Traded Funds, Implied Volatility Rank Ordered: QQQ (77/33) IWM (77/35) SPY (73/28) DIA (72/26) EFA (65/23) In the retirement account, I'll basically continue to ladder out short put as long as IVR/IV remains elevated. This is the exact environment in which I like to make additions on the put side: weakness plus increased implied volatility. Naturally, one begets the other. I'll also be keeping an eye on net portfolio delta to see if additional short delta hedge is required to keep me from getting overly directional which can make things more uncomfortable in a protracted down turn. I point this out because what people primarily see in my feed is "short put, short put, short put" and not the short delta hedges put on that are just kind of running in the background. There is individual trade delta, but also portfolio-wide delta.
AMEX:BITO
by NaughtyPines
The Week Ahead: NFLX, ARKF/ARKG/ARKK, XBI, KWEB, URA, IWM, QQQI haven't done one of these in quite some time, but thought I'd do one over this long holiday weekend. Earnings: I looked at a number of these for next week (there are quite a few) and have culled things down to the most liquid options underlyings, ideally with implied volatility rank >70% and 30-day greater than 50%. Only NFLX really fits that bill, even though it's a smidge shy of a 50% 30-day. For instance, I did look at CTXS (87/46), but when I dug into the options table, I wasn't fantastically excited about setting up a short strangle with only 2.5 to 5-wides where I'd want to set up my tent on both the put and call sides. NFLX (76.9% rank/44.8% 30-day) announces earnings on Thursday after market close, so look to put on a play before the end of that session if you're looking to play the announcement for a volatility contraction. Pictured here is a February 18th 450/610 short strangle with the legs camped out at the 13 delta. Paying 9.20 at the mid as of Friday's close on buying power of 52.59 (on margin), it has a 17.5% ROC at max, 8.7% ROC at 50% max. I like to go wider with earnings announcement volatility contraction plays since these do one of two things: (1) come in immediately; or (2) give you headaches for several cycles if the move has been overly large and you have to defend the setup to scratch in a contracted volatility environment. If you're more of a defined risk bent, throw on some wings: the February 18th 440/450/610/620 iron condor is paying 1.90 on buying power effect of 8.10, 23.5% ROC at max, 11.7% ROC at 50% max. Naturally, these are just preliminary pricing and strikes. You'll want to adjust strikes as necessary, since the underlying is likely to move somewhat running into earnings. Exchange-Traded Funds Screened for Implied Volatility Rank >50% and 30-Day >35% and Ordered by Implied Volatility Rank: ARKF (84/52) (Cathie Woods' Fintech Innovation) XBI (83/43) (Biotech) ARKG (79/59) (Cathie Woods' Genomic Revolution) KWEB (60/51) (China Internet) ARKK (59/44) (Cathie Woods' Innovation) URA (41/59) (Uranium) A lot of Cathie Woods' stuff in there ... . I like to reserve these for the monthlies, since the weeklies aren't all that liquid in some of these. Unfortunately, the February 18th monthly is a little short in duration for my tastes (33 days until expiry) and March a bit long, so will probably hand sit on deploying buying power in this area until the March monthly's duration shortens -- it's currently 61 days, and I like to keep things +/- a week or so of 45 days. One underlying that doesn't really have a 52-week valid implied volatility rank is BITO (1/68), since it hasn't been around for 52 weeks yet. However, that "1" indicates that its implied is low within the range its established since inception, and I'd naturally prefer it to be higher even though its 30-day outranks all of 30-days I've got in my little list, so I'm keeping an eye on it, having just exited a BITO short strangle on Friday. Broad Market Exchange-Traded Funds Ordered by Implied Volatility Rank: XLK (46/27) QQQ (43/25) EFA (35/17) IWM (36/26) DIA (24/18) SPY (23/19) I've moved XLK from my exchange-traded fund grid to my broad market grid, since it enjoys a close correlation with SPY (.87 90-day) and an even closer correlation with QQQ. XLK is about half the size of QQQ, so if you like to layer on, it's a little more nimble for that purpose. I've been selling premium in small caps (IWM) in the weeklies to bide my time while monthly setups come in or have to be managed, but may consider sticking some of my pickle into QQQ next week given the fact that its rank implies that it's more "expanded" (if that makes any sense). I'd probably use the March 4th expiry, where the QQQ 16-delta 342/408 is paying 5.69 on buying power of 48.03, 11.8% ROC at max, 5.9% at 50% max. Naturally, the market may look entirely different from an implied volatility standpoint coming off a long holiday weekend, so I always have a second look at whether doing that is worthwhile once the market opens.
NASDAQ:NFLX
by NaughtyPines
5
Rolling: KWEB December 17th to January 19th 43 Short Put... for a .56/contract credit. Comments: Rolling out at >50% max here for a realized gain and a credit and without taking on additional risk. I originally filled this a 1.04/contract credit (See Post Below), so have collected a total of 1.56 relative to a short put value of 1.04 (i.e., realized gains of 1.56 -1.04 = .54/$54). Implied remains relatively decent here at a 30-day of 45.4%. If it had dropped below 35%, I'd probably just take profit and move on.
AMEX:KWEBLong
by NaughtyPines
KWEB LONG: DOUBLE DIAMOND + CHANNEL BOTTOM + OSCILLATORS1. Price has drawn 2 diamonds (diamond in diamond) at the bottom of the increasing (purple) channel. Buy signal. 2. A cycle with a length of 756 days (25 months) is found, according to which the price is now at the bottom of the cycle. Buy signal. 3. All major oscillators and indicators are in oversold zones and give long signals. 4. It is necessary to remember about the resistance of the local downtrend (orange). * At the same time, the fundamental background in China is still negative. I entered a long position with a trailing stop loss below the lower edge of the small diamond. After breaking through and/or retesting the upper edge of a large diamond, and then after breaking through the orange resistance, I will buy more. In case the price falls, my trailing sell order will save me. Not advice. Not a financial recommendation.
AMEX:KWEBLong
by Dr_Chester
5
$BABA at levels of high value. Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA) , also known as Alibaba Group and Alibaba.com, is a Chinese multinational technology company specializing in e-commerce, retail, Internet, and technology. It is currently at prices from 2017-2018 and pre-Covid. It has retraced about 45% from its record high which puts it in a deep bear market. Current Fair Value , according to DCF, is $301. The Technicals show the following: 1) Bollinger Bands show that it is overextended to the downside by 3 standard deviations. 2) The Volume Profile , which measures volume by PRICE , shows that since its IPO, this price level here is where the most VOLUME comes in. This can be translated to, these levels here is were investors find value in the stock. 3) The RSI on the Daily show that it is grossly oversold. Buying China Stocks here will require mental strength as bad news continues to circulate the Media. This can be compared to the Covid Crash of 2020 where the market took a tumble and the media made retail feel as if the market had no bottom. At the levels that most retail sold was actually the levels to buy. Famous words by the great Warren Buffett when he says "Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful." Chinese stocks have been in a bear market for over 8 months while companies like Alibaba continue to bring in Billions of dollars in revenue. We must learn that a stock price does not always reflect the value of a company; it is our job as investors to look for and find that value in the market. For now, it seems as if the long term value is here in Alibaba.
NYSE:BABALong
by optionsswing
1
Chinese tech stocks in the process of capitulationIt has been a rough year here for Chinese stocks but after this recent weeks acceleration lower it feels like we're entering at least some type of short-term capitulation washout. Volume acceleration Extension outside multiple time frame Bollinger Bands Speed of sell off Definitely a fierce counter-trend trade for more experienced traders that can manage risk and position size appropriately but I'd pay attention to it in this 42 to 46 zone for a reaction.
AMEX:KWEBLong
by EvanMedeiros