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Kylemcquade

XAU/USD Bullish SharkHey guys, Today I am looking at Silver, with a bullish shark formation on the 4 hour time frame. Normally for this pattern I would feel more comfortable if the B point was at least 0.382, but the level of support at the PRZ is very strong. The support is holding as high as the weekly timeframe, which is why I am feeling drawn to this trade. Shark Ratios are as follows: C = 1.13-1.618 D = 1.618-2.618 X to D = 0.886-1.13 There have been a few spikes below the support- my stop loss has been placed below all of these (still with a 1:3 risk). As always I will be watching the candles to signal a reversal before entering. I will update everyone as I go! :) Good luck guys.
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by KyleMcQuade
NZD/JPY Bullish 5-0 Type-II Entry Hi guys, Here I'm on the 4 hour chart, looking a potential type-ii entry on a bullish 5-0. The pattern has already made an absolutely PERFECT 5-0 formation; all key reversal areas are bang on our key retracement/extension levels. Price has already touched the 50% retracement for the D point, however if price returns to re-test this level we should be looking for a long entry! With this pattern, price should be trader until it re-tests the previous high at the C point .Our stop-loss should be below the 0.618 level, as if price closes below here then the pattern is no longer valid. By keeping the stop below we are minimising the possibility of price testing our stop before the rally to our TP begins. With this in mind, there is also an inverse head and shoulder pattern forming on the daily/weekly chart with the C point at the neckline. The right shoulder has not yet formed and I would not be surprised if this is it in the making. Should this be the case, I will adjust my stop loss once price either meets the neckline or the first TP level of 0.382 (whichever comes first). 5-0 Ratios B = 1.13-1.618 C = 1.618-2.24 D = 0.5 I am also short the GBP/NZD AND expecting a drop on the AUD/NZD if similar support is broken (see below). Using this position as sentimental confluence, it is conceivable that the NZD strength may be present in the Yen pair also. If price does return to the D point I will drop down to the 1 hour time frame to judge my entry. Analysis will be updated as time goes on! Thank you.
Long
by KyleMcQuade
2
GBP/NZD Bearish BammHi guys, I have entered this bearish bamm formation on the GBPNZD. The Bat Action Magnet Method (BAMM) is triggered when the C-D wave of a potential bat pattern has broken the support/resistance of the B point. Price has broken the support at the B point and since re-tested this area as resistance. As most traders will know, support and resistance acts as a magnet, pulling price towards key levels. As harmonic patterns are in themselves price action formations built around key levels in the market, this approach normally works very well! The next level of support is actually a key level on the daily and weekly timeframes. I like to wait for a re-test of the resistance before entering, which has already took place, and I'm also looking at the symmetrical triangle that is forming on the 30 minute chart. I have already entered, however if you feel you need further confirmation, feel free to follow this also (see below). Bat Ratios B = 0.382-0.5 C = 0.382-0.886 D = 1.618-2.618 X to D = 0.886 Risk to reward is 1:3 as I feel this gives us a good average return whilst keeping a healthy stop loss for any volatility that may occur. I will re-assess the bat bat pattern as a whole once price has reached the PRZ. Again, I am in this trade at the moment so feel free to enter, or wait for the break of the triangle. Good luck everyone!
Short
by KyleMcQuade
EUR/JPY Bearish BatAnother possible position for the position traders out there on the daily chart of the EUR/JPY. Before the X point, price became slightly volatile- rapidly rising and falling- before resuming it's natural wave south. Using the X from the high following the retracement we find a bearish bat formation. Bat Ratios B = 0.382-0.5 C = 0.382-0.886 D = 1.618-2.618 X to D = 0.886 The higher the timeframe you use, the more fundamental they become so please be aware of what's happening in the market when analysing this pattern. And by all means use the lower time frames to judge an entry. See below my previous bat on the JPY against the AUD where we have seen the Yen gain significant strength. Will the Yen strength continue?
Short
by KyleMcQuade
2
AUD/NZD Bullish SharkGood afternoon guys. Doing some generic charting today, I am looking at this bullish shark pattern. This pattern is a long way away from hitting, but will be a good buy for some position traders if price hits the expected PRZ. The PRZ is aligned with strong support on the weekly and monthly time frames. There will also be potential for this pattern to turn into a bearish 5-O. I will update the analysis when this occurs! Shark ratios: C = 1.13-1.618 D = 1.618-2.618 X to D = 0.886-1.13 Have a look at the overview below for my overview of the pair! Thank you.
Long
by KyleMcQuade
MaidSafe - Bullish BatThroughout its lifetime MaidSafeCoin has been seen to have one of the most solid structures among the altcoins; MAID is now approaching the all time low, where it should find a level of solid support. Going into the spring we are expecting the cycle to start again with a rush of buyers flooding the market in the coming months after a period of serious correction. With this in mind I have been looking at a potential bullish bat formation in a similar area to the all time low. As with all bat patterns I am looking for not only the PRZ to be tested, but for candle sticks to tell me where the market is going. A break in the bearish trendline would also be beneficial. Bat Ratios B = 0.382-0.5 C = 0.382-0.886 D = 1.618-2.618 X to D = 0.886 As always, use the ratios above to draw up your harmonic , and keep the risk at a 1:2 minimum. In this example I am using 1:3 as we have more returns, but with price still below previous support. Good luck everyone!
Long
by KyleMcQuade
3
BTCUSD Bullish ButterflyHi guys, tonight I am looking at a bullish butterfly on Bitcoin/USD. On the way up back in June 2017 we saw BTC hit resistance at the $7600 level, which them turned to support before price continued northward. Our PRZ lands at the $8200 mark, where price briefly bounced for 5 days back in November before proceeding to create new highs. As you can see from my previous bitcoin trade, these earlier support levels are holding well, so I expect this level to do so as well (see below). Using this pattern we set are looking for a TP of $11,180, with a stop loss at a minimum risk/reward of 1:2. In this instance I am specifically using 1:3 as this gives us a greater return, and the stop-loss is still below the previous level of resistance. Butterfly ratios: B = 0.786 C = 0.382-0.886 D = 1.618-2.24 X to D = 1.272 This move has already begun but should be good to go if price is to re-test the $8200 mark. I'll be updating as I go! Have a good weekend everyone. :)
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by KyleMcQuade
BTCUSD Bullish CypherThis week I am looking at a potential bullish position on Bitcoin, where support has recently been found between 9-10k (a good psychological number). Price has retested the $9100 mark and is beginning to consolidate as it approaches 10k once again, making this a good area for a double-bottom to occur. As always, this pattern comes with a 1:2 risk-reward ratio from the PRZ, but candlesticks will still be heavily monitored before any entry will be taken. Cypher ratios X:B = 0.382-0.618 A:C = 1.272-1.414 X:D = 0.786
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by KyleMcQuade
2
AUDNZD Bullish BatLooking at the Aussie-Kiwi this week, we can see a bullish bat setup, on the 1 hour timeframe, at a level of daily support (see generic overview below). The PRZ completes at 1.0862, with a preferred stop lost below the wick of previous support on the 4 hour chart. Of course, an entry may be taken at any point between the D and X levels so candlesticks will be closely monitored. NZD CPI will be released tomorrow (24/01/2018) however, this aside, the rest of this week's key economic data is focussing on the EUR, USD, GBP and CAD. As harmonic patterns are naturally occurring cycles, we should see little-to-no interference from outside fundamental factors. Bat Ratios X:B = 0.38-0.5 A:C = 0.382-0.886 B:D = 1.618-2.618 X:D = 88.6%
Long
by KyleMcQuade
CADCHF Bullish CypherLater this month, the BoC are expected to raise their interest rate from 1% to 1.25%- should this go ahead we should see a rise in demand for the Canadian Dollar. Looking at the chart- price has broke strong weekly resistance, which has now turned to support. The Cypher pattern completes on the support level, where I believe price should rally if it hits this level. As always, I will be looking closely at the candlesticks for a valid entry- and keeping the risk:reward at a minimum 1:2. RSI is also approaching the oversold level. I am still holding my short position on th NZDCAD as i believe the cad will gain further strength. Cypher ratios X:B = 0.382-0.618 A:C = 1.272-1.414 X:D = 0.786
Long
by KyleMcQuade
4
AudJpy Bearish BatThis morning, the AUD trade balance was released below consensus. Expected at a surplus of 550M; however, the release came out at a shortage of -628M. Here we have a bearish bat on the Aussie-Yen. Price is well overbought, so I will be keeping an eye on the 4 hour and daily chart candles for sign of a reversal. Price has broke the weekly trend line completely and began to consolidate- perfect conditions for harmonic patterns. I'm also looking at the NZD-CAD. The AUD-CAD will also be a good pair to analyse for a short position. Bat Ratios X:B = 0.38-0.5 A:C = 0.382-0.886 B:D = 1.618-2.618 X:D = 88.6%
Short
by KyleMcQuade
NZDCAD - Bearish Butterfly. This week I have the Cad on my watchlist. This pair in particular is interesting as we have a 6 month bearish trend that has came to and end and began to consolidate. Within the consolidation we have a bearish Butterfly pattern. Price is overobught and also showing bearish divergence. I am taking a bearish entry as the Daily chart i expect will close with a bearish inverted hanging man- a sign of a bearish reversal. Within the next 24 hours we will have the release of the NZD Trade Balance. It is expected to increase on last month by 321 Million. Should this fall below consensus, we will see a rapid drop. Should the trade balance come out as expected (or higher) I will re-assess the position. See previous Bullish butterfly on this pair as the consolidation began! Butterfly ratios: X:B = 78.6% A:C = 38.2:88.6% B:D = 1.618-2.24% X:D = 127.2%
Short
by KyleMcQuade
2
GBPNZD Bullish Gartley.This week I am looking at a bullish Gartley on the GBPNZD. Price already reached the D level and has gone slightly past our PRZ- however, the pattern is still valid in my eyes until it reaches the X level. In terms of structure you can see the pattern os solid. The end of the C:D wave has brought some strong bullish divergence on the RSI, and if you look closely there is also a bullish engulfing candle on the 4 hour chart. Price is also respecting the daily trend line. I have already entered this trade after the close of the small 1 hour engulfing candle as price seems to be forming a hammer on the 4 hour chart also. I have illustrated this with my true entry, TP and SL levels. Entry at 1.9182 Throughout the week we have several announcements on the GBP including weekly earnings, retail sales, and a rate announcement on Thursday. Should price remain bullish heading into Thursday morning, I will move my stop loss to my original entry level and wait it out. I thoroughly expect this will happen, otherwise I would not be taking this trade. I do expect price to begin to exhaust and consolidate at the end of the daily trend line- I believe the hartley will be the beginning of the consolidating market. Gartley ratios: B: 0.618 C: 0.382 - 0.886 D: 1.272 - 1.618 X-D: 0.786
Long
by KyleMcQuade
4
USD/JPY Bullish SharkAlong with the long pattern on CHF/JPY, we have another bullish setup on the USD/JPY. I am currently looking at a bullish shark that has just touched the entry zone (between 0.886 and 1.3). That said, I will not look to enter until price drops lower to the lower entry level. This evening, the Japanese Trade Balance came in at 45 Billion below consensus. Now I am awaiting the consensus for next week's CPI rate (previously 0.7). A negative consensus following the recent trade balance release will all but ensure a profitable trade on either this pair and/or the CHF/JPY long. The completing of these 2 patterns at the same time also bring harmonic confluence to each pair. Across the board the JPY is sitting at support and/or showing as extremely oversold. I am expecting yen sentiment to turn bearish in the coming week. Shark ratios: A:C = 1.13:1.618 B:D = 1.618:2.618 X:D = 0.886:1.13
Long
by KyleMcQuade
CHF/JPY Bullish Bat Looking at this pair we have a bullish wedge (*See Below*). Inside the wedge we have a bullish bat pattern with an exact 50% B point. The technical analysis looks good on this pair- the pattern is meeting the wedge at a level where there has been support in recent weeks also. Looking ahead this week we have the trade balance to be released for the Swiss frank, along with the agreed consensus for the Swiss GDP and Retail Sales on Nov 30th and Dec. 1st. Retail sales came in at -0.4% on the last release. This may rise significantly heading into Christmas which wouldn't necessarily increase the value of the currency as it's just seasonal pump. An increase in GDP prior to the retail sales however would see this pair rise to our TP level. Bat Ratios X:B = 0.38-0.5 A:C = 0.382-0.886 B:D = 1.618-2.618 X:D = 88.6%
Long
by KyleMcQuade
1
EURCHF Bearish GartleyExpecting in a drop in the Euro across the board this week, just going through the process of picking the best set ups. As per usual, I may not take this trade depending on the candlesticks but I will keep an eye on the progression as price approaches the PRZ. This bearish Gartley (on the 1 hour chart) comes as price recently reached its highest level since 2015. This pair dropped rapidly in one day and has steadily retraced ever since. The weekly chart is now showing as overbought and I believe we should see some consolidation as the retirement begins to level out. Gartley ratios: X:B = 61.8% A:C = 38.2%:88.6% B:D = 127.2%:161.8% X:D = 78.6%
Short
by KyleMcQuade
EURUSD Bearish SharkHi Guys, i've been looking mostly at dollar pairs this weekend and I'm expecting the beginning of short-term volatility in some places. The Euro-USD has soared to new highs in recent weeks but is now in a position where it is looking for a new support level on the daily frame. The daily chart has presented a bearish wedge formation, while price has found some support on the lower timeframes. After the break of a head and shoulders, we are now re-testing the neckline as an area of resistance. In the midst of retesting resistance, there is a bearish shark formation on the 1hour chart. The pattern is forming right at our neckline; the area we should be looking to sell has been highlighted green, in accordance with the rules of the shark pattern. I will be looking for a short position around the 1.169 level until 1.1625 (risk at minimum 1:2 as always). See overview below. Shark ratios: A:C = 1.13:1.618 B:D = 1.618:2.618 X:D = 0.886:1.13
Short
by KyleMcQuade
CadJpy Short- BAMM TheoryCADJPY has began to pivot around the neckline of a head and shoulders on the daily/weekly chart. Price found support at this level on the 4 hour chart, made a new low and is now retesting the previous los as resistance. Recent dips and rallies have been urgent and direct in recent weeks, however price dropping below the 4HR 200EMA at this neckline gives a sign that we should see some consolidation before another fluctuation. Risk is 1:3 in this case because we are testing the resistance, as opposed to trading the breakout (I wanted to see if price would break first, in case it continued north after breaking the H&S neckline). Head and shoulders can be seen below, along with previous support/resistance.
Short
by KyleMcQuade
AUDJPY Bullish GartleyGood morning guys. I have looked at a few of the AUD pairs and found a bullish shark on the AUD/CAD at a strong level of support (will be published later). In addition, I have now came across this Gartley pattern, also hovering around a strong support/resistance zone. I will be looking for bullish sentiment in the coming week or so through fundamental releases to add confluence to the bullish pattern. The bigger picture can be seen below, where price has previously stalled/reversed around the D level. Gartley ratios: X:B = 61.8% A:C = 38.2%:88.6% B:D = 127.2%:161.8% X:D = 78.6%
Long
by KyleMcQuade
XAUUSD Short - Bearish BAMMAbove we can see the trend line for a movement within bearish weekly channel on Silver. Price has hit the trend line and I expect will drop to our D point once support is broken during the trend. Adding confluence to this movement is the bearish bam theory- the harmonic movement will push price down should the daily candle break below this level! Risk is minimum 1:2 - I will hold this short position but will not be taking the bat movement. I am simply using the BAMM theory to add to my bearish sentiment. Please see a similar trade below on the AUDUSD!
OANDA:XAGUSDShort
by KyleMcQuade