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Labrietrading

$SONO: Short setup spotted$SONO has a great short signal here, paired with a longer term down trend active, coming down from overbought readings in the daily timeframe, and below the most recent 'Key Earnings Level' from the 'Key Hidden Levels' suite of indicators developed by my mentor @timwest . A great setup considering possible implications and the state of affairs in the market these days. You can enter shorts on slight retrace if possible, or try to enter asap when pre market opens, stop loss here should be sufficiently wide (in general a basic 3 times the daily 11 period Average True Range distance from entry works, but you can risk 0.5 average ranges above the yellow box here for a tighter stop). The company was unprofitable until 2020 essentially, and has reached bubble valuations, with growth needing to continue at this pace by 2024 for current valuation to be sustainable. As other growth stocks, it's not where I'd park my money, unless there's a technical short setup forming...
NASDAQ:SONOShort
by IvanLabrie
LUNAUSDT: Huge upside vs modest riskI've been thinking about it and the setup here is probably the best trade to take in crypto markets going into the end of the long term trend signals I had forecasted in $BTCUSD and $ETHUSD as far back as July 2020. Weekly and daily charts, and also ratios vs $BTC and $ETH show $LUNA can perform incredibly going forward. We all are aware of Do Kwon's stunt, to accumulate a massive $Bitcoin stash to back his $UST stablecoin, and thus reinforce the self reinforced trend present in $LUNA from the start. The last big self reinforced trend we observed in crypto was $Solana and also $Bitcoin and the $GBTC arb play that was absorbing a lot of supply and fueling speculation until the Canadian ETF launched. These trends form tremendous bubbles that George Soros describes as the ideal opportunity to build wealth when identified. The key will be identifying what breaks the self reinforced mechanism, and reverses the trend bursting the bubble that is being inflated here. The mechanism in question makes each transaction made using Terra’s stablecoin incur a fee which is goes to reward holders of $Luna, the ecosystem's 2nd native token. The Treasury and miners hold these tokens, so higher transaction volumes create more miner demand (which should increase the cost of attacking the network in theory) while giving the Treasury more funds to protect the stablecoin and fund discounts for Terra users who make purchases with the stablecoin (similar to cashbacks). As such, transaction growth will impact $LUNAUSD's price via this mechanism...Can be a double edged blade, and will be interesting to see how this bubble unwinds. For now, it's a good thing to hold considering downside risk and timing of the T@M signals present in the weekly chart. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
1
#SPX: Potential forecast if we hold support here$SPX confirmed a bullish signal today, after it was evident selling had been absorbed systematically by long term investors since September 4th until today. This buying puts a floor on the market here, and potentially offers a solid support level if retested once prices move higher, if they do hold here for a couple weeks. A new weekly signal can trigger by the week starting Sep 28th, and we have many short term charts in certain tech stocks showing bearish signals, while a lot of other stocks -energy, travel, hotels, to name a few- have bullish signals, so a sideways index here would not be too crazy. Once we confirm a new bullish signal we could project a rally over 3684, at least, provided we get bullish confirmation next. I'm holding both bullish and bearish positions in individual stocks, as well as some insurance using derivatives as well, but should we get a bullish swing once again, the bullish signals will far outweigh any potential loss I might have to deal with from bearish setups. That's the beauty of stock picking, many times you can find good trades that might not correlate the index at all times, or even afford the luxury of trading both long and short positions in different stocks. Stimulus talks need to progress for the rally to continue, so I will be keeping an eye on those developments going forward. Best of luck! Ivan Labrie.
Editors' picks
FX:SPX500Long
by IvanLabrie
23
BTCUSD: Relief rally setting upI suspect we are seeing a broad market relief rally in risk assets, including crypto. I bot my max allocation in $BTCUSD and $ETHUSD today, before US equities closed, with an 80/20% allocation to each respectively. I'm allocating 25% of my capital into it, whenever I want full exposure in crypto assets. Daily technical charts show a trend signal kicked off here, this signal formed in the $BITO chart today, and was present 2 days ago in spot charts. CME was slower to confirm and is now onboard together with the latest spot signal I'm showing you in this chart. Weekly charts can easily confirm an advance for 5 weeks here, interestingly this would take Bitcoin close to the current mid term down trend resistance at the 25% speed line (measure 25% of the speed of the decline from top to bottom, and project it as a trendline, you can try this with the Fib Speed Resistance Fan tool here on Tradingview, really useful way to gauge trends' persistence on pullbacks after a sizeable move in one direction). The long term trend I had predicted back in July/August 2020 will expire by the end of April this year, so it is fitting to get a rally into the end of the trend, time wise...I don't yet know how far this will go, but the same timing is found in various stock market trend signals in long term charts, and almost all risk assets exhibit the same behavior: a massive top since late 2021, and now a potential relief rally setting up. It's unclear if it's a retracement in a down trend, or a reversal of the decline leading to new highs, but I think it's more probable that it is merely a relief rally indeed, and all risk assets likely head lower over time, likely acting similarly to the 2000/2013 period or the move after the late 60s into the early 80s. We will know more over time. Where will Bitcoin go in this potential new paradigm scenario? It's yet to experience a long term bear market in risk assets, since it was born after the bottom in 2009, following the top of the long term bull market that started in 1982, and culminated in the year 2000. We now are seeing the end of the trend that kicked off from 2009 lows, and peaked in late 2021 probably. My guess is Bitcoin either decouples from risk assets and performs like Gold and Silver , or other commodities , which outperform during bear markets historically, or it moves like growth stocks, as it has been moving. Next move here is telegraphed: we go higher, as long as not breaching the 37200 mark give or take, within the next 16 days to 5 weeks. What comes after that is not yet clear, but it could be that it is rejected from the 25% speed resistance line. Let's stay vigilant and nimble. The Federal Reserve can exacerbate volatility this week, so I'll keep an eye on that as well...Crossing fingers gentlemen. Best of luck! Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
$AMZN: Topped long term, short itI'm short $AMZN from here, I had briefly ridden a daily down trend signal before, but now we have a massive monthly topping pattern kicking in. I think it is a good market hedge, and might be a great long term pair trade to short it against energy longs as the ultimate reopening/end of the stay at home bubble trade. Bezos leaving was the kiss of death, antitrust risk is massive for the company, I can see this become a lengthy and very painful decline for shareholders. Better abandon ship ASAP . This might be the canary in the gold mine for FANG as well, the rally since 2009 lows is likely over and we can expect a 2000-2012 style move again. Lots of pain for hodlers, don't be left holding Bezos' bag here. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:AMZNShort
by IvanLabrie
3
$DJI: Very long term view...I plotted blocks of 5 years as bars and did the T@M analysis for them, which shows a very interesting view of the long term trend cycles in equities since the start of the Dow Jones index. You can see how this helped prevent exposure to equities during the 70s for example, or guard against a decline back in 1929. As an exercise, it's highly interesting, but we also get a warning for current market cycles. The yearly trend in $DJI expires by end of 2021, and we are already beyond one target range for it, perhaps the next top is between 58k and 91k for the Dow Jones...by 2024 or sooner. Anything after 2022 is a dangerous zone already, from a T@M perspective, personally I think the market will top next year, around May...as the Fed starts hiking, the timing matches various technical charts' timing expectations. Best of luck navigating these murky waters , Ivan Labrie.
TVC:DJILong
by IvanLabrie
7
$BTCUSD: Update - 2w uptrend confirmed!I outline time duration and potential upside for the current trend signal in this chart, I had described this possibility in my previous publication. As a positive, we have pretty pessimistic wall of worry kinda sentiment now, and odds of a rally are big with this timeframe being in control of most of the major swings historically in $Bitcoin. Moving below 47k would invalidate this analysis likely. Let's see how it goes, best of luck! Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
50
$NZDUSD: Good RR setup...The Kiwi dollar presents us with a high reward to risk long setup here. Set stops below 0.68 to be safe and let it ride until it hits 0.6974 for a 50% take profit, and exit the rest of the position by the close of Jan 27th, or if price hits 0.71295 before that date. Risk 0.25% minimum, and up to 1-2% of the account in this trade, you can calculate sizing based on the distance from entry to the stop loss area of your choosing (below 0.68 to be safe), a reward to risk over 1.5-2:1 would be good. Leaving 0.5-1 ATR of buffer below support is often a good idea, so something below 0.68 fits the bill considering the daily ATR. $AUDUSD has a setup here as well, and the weekly $DXY chart looks like we can get a move by next week, in that timeframe, together with strength in precious metals and copper gives me a good feeling regarding selling dollar weakness against commodity producing countries' currencies. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
$EURUSD: Potential bottom signal here...$EURUSD has a nice confluence of factors suggesting a bottom here is possible, with it rallying back towards 1.17-1.18 over time. Weekly down trend signals have taken the Euro down for a long time now, both were 13 week long each time, with the latest 13 week decline signal expiring when the Euro hit a long term support level from where it had taken off after the initial COVID crash move. I suspect we can get a reaction here once again, and can safely take a long trade with over 4 to 1 reward to risk. There's extremely positive sentiment in the dollar as of late, and it is certainly overbought here. Worth a shot! Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
2
$AUDUSD: Both the dollar and Yuan pair are bullish...Historically, signals happening in both pairs suggest a good outcome for long trades in the Aussie dollar. I've caught a move before, when a weekly trend was expiring on the downside in $AUDCNH, and we rode a few nice moves up in $AUDJPY and $AUDUSD then. We now have a second chance at a similar juncture, while also the $DXY is at the end of a weekly uptrend in time, and sitting below the target it recently hit, which is right into a long term resistance level from the quarterly chart, so odds for people fading the dollar against strong currencies are above average currently. I'm long $GBPUSD, adding $AUDUSD to my short dollar basket in my FX account. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
5
$BTCUSD: Daily trend is now up again potentially....This means we have a chance of triggering a 2 week timeframe uptrend signal if price breaks over 53k ish before Jan 3rd. The 2 month timeframe trend, which has historically drove $BTCUSD's main cycle suggests the market is bullish until May 2022, and the current juncture allows for a move up to confirm, which would last until mid May give or take. This is a good confluence of short, mid and long term timeframes, paired with a low risk technical entry to rejoin the trend. Definitely worth a shot, since the minimum upside we get is a move to 58.3k by Jan 1st, which in itself is a trade with over 5 to 1 reward to risk. A move under 47k would nullify this theory and suggest the scenario where price grinds down towards 21k is in the cards... There's additional support from the yield curve slightly steepening as of late, with 10 year yields looking ready to climb back up, and Crude oil bottoming potentially, same as equities overall. Manchin negotiating is a different thing than altogether rejecting the Build Back Better plan, which was what the market was pricing in. Omicron being a mild disease for the vaccinated, and the US not closing schools of businesses is a lot less worse than what the market feared too. Perhaps this recent weakness was merely rolling of options and hedges forward into the future, as we had a huge amount of options and futures expirations last Friday, which sent shockwaves across markets even into Monday's price action. With that out of the way, the market caught a bid, and liquidity started to return. Seeing $VIX move lower under 20.49 next would be extra positive. Keep an eye out for my Twitter updates, as I post content there regularly, more often than publications themselves. I'll try to update this one as we go forward while the trade is valid. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
4
$EURJPY: Daily uptrend once again...Seems like yields have bottomed in the US, we got a shot at a reflationary/reopening move thanks to the recent wave of news surrounding Omicron and the $PFE/$MRK pills, together with a nice sentiment reset for the past month across the board. I'd suggest going long XXXJPY here, I'm in $GBPJPY and $EURJPY personally, but $AUDJPY also has a nice signal as well and historically correlates equities, in particular in periods like what could unfold next. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
1
#OIL: Monthly trend active...daily trend is downThe daily down trend signal that triggered today indicates we might get a retracement in the existing monthly uptrend in $WTICOUSD. Oil futures would be a great buy once the current fall slows down and reverses, so I'll keep my eyes wide open waiting for cues to go long into monthly support (see the green arc area). Upside over the long term is huge, so, it is of paramount importance to rejoin this trend when safe. Best of luck! Cheers, Ivan.
OANDA:WTICOUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
1
$UPST: Long way down...I think $UPST is poised to fall hard from here, for a good while, back to the start of the crazy uptrend we had since August 2021. I've personally managed to capture a great upside trade, and now moved into speculating on the downside here...I've shared these with my signals service clients in real time, and also commented on it in the Key Hidden Levels chatroom here. There's a chance the company's business model is fraudulent, and it had an unbelievably crazy upside move recently, which strikes me as a bubble that is bursting. I am not seeing a rational way to justify the valuation it commands and it has a weak to non existent moat when compared against $SOFI or other lenders...Using AI as a buzzword isn't a good enough reason. Their default rates could end up being much worse than they anticipate based on their models too. Anyways, from a technical perspective, this is a good chance to short the stock given that the weekly uptrend signal that predicted the rally the stock had has expired, and it implies a potential move back down to the start of the trend if weakness ensues. Best of luck! Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:UPSTShort
by IvanLabrie
8
$ZB_F: Uptrend signal activeWe now have a good signal here indicating bonds can rally substantially in the coming weeks. I've bot a bull call spread to capture the upside here, expiring on Dec 10th, for the March contract. It allows me to fine tune risk and maximize gains if the trade works in a way that an outright futures long position wouldn't. If you can, join on Monday on dips, if making a higher high, be ready to pay up. It's a good hedge for your portfolio in case of carrying long oil positions like I do. Cheers, Ivan.
CBOT:ZBH2022Long
by IvanLabrie
$BIIB: Update, get long!I think it warrants making a new publication here, $BIIB has flashed a buy signal with tremendously good reward to risk, as it can resume the long term trend that can take it over $1600-2600 over time. Phase 3 clinical trials have gone really well for their Alzheimer's treatment 'Aduhelm', putting it in line with results obtained by $LLY's drug 'Donanemab'. I was long $LLY and have been trading in and out of $BIIB trying to time the end of the long slide since the FDA approval news came out. I think the time is now, to get in and sit tight. I've banked my $LLY exposure, but both companies will likely do well with their Alzheimer's treatments going forward and have solid trends, but the reward to risk favors $BIIB, so I'm only long Biogen currently. Best of luck! Cheers, Ivan.
NASDAQ:BIIBLong
by IvanLabrie
$FB: Long here...I think we now have a decent setup in the company formerly known as Facebook. There were some sick runs in the $META etf and names like $RBLX, $NVDA, $U, gaming/metaverse related cryptocurrencies, etc. Some of that money can go back into $FB here, which hasn't moved as much, and has a nice base showing accumulation by smart players. Long term, the chart is still in an active quarterly timeframe trend, so there's plenty of time and upside left in the stock. Daily offers a good reward to risk entry to join that trend. If price holds up from here and doesn't breach the area below $330, we can expect a rather steady climb from here. Best of luck! Cheers, Ivan.
NASDAQ:METALong
by IvanLabrie
5
$GBPUSD: Upside to 1.3875...The Pound has triggered a bottom signal, in both the daily and weekly timeframe, right after seeing the 1st rate hike across developed nations since the Pandemic started. Weekly charts point to a rally towards 1.3875 within the next 11 weeks, and the daily chart has a buy signal right here. I'm long with a stop below 1.31625, aiming to capture the weekly move here, if possible. Don't risk over 1% in the position, I'd say. Calculate the sizing carefully. Risk management is key to stay in the game until we strike gold with a good trade. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie