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Labrietrading

$USDJPY: Dollar reversal?I suspect we are seeing a large scale reversal in the dollar, which will be further confirmed if CPI favors renewed hawkishness surpassing current consensus estimates (consensus was already shaken by NFP yesterday, and would be further shocked if CPI allows Powell to keep hiking for longer than expected, or even do larger hikes as well). The BOJ governor change is looming as well, and with it the retirement of YCC apparently (yield curve controls). Overall, a decent trade if you need to hedge some equity risk in your portfolio or if you are an avid Forex trader already. Best of luck! Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
2
$XOM: Strong uptrendNice setup here in $XOM, new 52 week highs on higher than average volume with a Time@Mode trend signal confirmation this week. Monthly and yearly trends are up, overall oil stocks could continue being the best prospect with a potential rebound in inflation figures coming next, Russia 'cutting' production (likely forced to do so by the effect of crippling sanctions) and China reopening boosting aviation fuel demand, while the economy possibly dodges a recession, and business investment goes back to pre-pandemic trend levels, among other factors. The latest State of the Union speech has likely contributed to weakness in US Treasury bonds, and coupled with NFP might have triggered rotation back into value/energy from growth names ahead of CPI data. All in all, low risk to follow this development and be positioned in value stocks and particularly energy for the coming months (and likely years). Best of luck! Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
NYSE:XOMLong
by IvanLabrie
1
$PYPL: CEO departing could be bullishNice technical setup and an interesting earnings report. To begin with, the CEO will be departing by year end, which normally is a long term bullish pattern after a huge decline. Branded checkout maintained E-commerce market share during 2022, and guidance is surprisingly positive if we don't have a recession here: "2023 guide assumes pressured discretionary spend. We see signs of cooling inflation & it's logical to expect rising discretionary spend... but we did not build this into forecasts. Q1 is starting stronger than anticipated with branded checkout accelerating." (Schulman dixit). There was a substantial risk reduction from cost savings and layoffs (around 600m) which investors will appreciate as a safety net in this environment. It's been a long winding fall, since the stock peaked in late 2021: This could be the next $META type idea...Worth a shot. Best of luck! Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:PYPLLong
by IvanLabrie
$MRVL: Bullish setupNice buy signal in $MRVL here, low risk and with ample upside to $51.65-52.65 by the 23rd or sooner... Couple ways to play this, either sell puts OTM, or play it with a call spread (long ATM, short OTM) or put spread ITM (long put at the stop or ATM and short put OTM at the target matching the time duration of the trend), or buy shares. Options offer more granular risk management possibilities and way lower capital allocation for swing trading though, shares offer the possibility of holding past one trend signal and let it run during the next continuation signal that pops. Some food for thought, I suggest reading Tony Saliba's options books to get some more ideas like this. Best of luck! Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:MRVLLong
by IvanLabrie