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Labrietrading

$GBPUSD: Finally confirmed a weekly bottom...I was monitoring $GBPUSD developments as of late, it was clear to me sentiment had reached a historical extreme and this pair was due for a rebound, which eventually happened. I didn't catch much of it, and watched for developments in weekly scale, as the sideways action in the daily become too lengthy... Last Friday, we had confirmation from the weekly chart that the bottom was in, which brings a substantial opportunity, reward to risk and probability wise. If this idea is correct, then we can expect a large scale $DXY reversal (also confirmed by $DXY itself, and the bond market, as well as the 'Barron's magazine cover' indicator having flashed at the top), which suggests $GBPUSD can rally for months to come, and easily retest the range of the Brexit vote: Maybe a decent time to scoop UK real estate I guess... Best of luck! Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
5
$BTCUSD: Silver after 2011 top analogueOverall I think we should keep an open mind and trade signals as they form, after all, we get defined targets, stops and timelines from the Time@Mode signals present in daily/weekly charts, that give actionable and profitable cues with a very high win rate, but, in the long run, I expect rallies to fail to get follow through and prices to grind downwards similarly to how Silver behaved after the 2011 top in precious metals. Sentiment in crypto echoes that of Gold and Silver bugs after the 2011 top (which was connected to some hysteria in the US debt rating being downgraded briefly and all kinds of death of the dollar conspiracies). A whole industry of grifters was born with a perma bullish message in Gold and Silver, and a cult following of people stuck in losing trades, buying on the way down, fueling bear market rallies that didn't go nowhere. No one in those circles gave up and capitulated until like 2018 when following the astronomical rise of 'digital gold', physical gold vault services allowed clients to exchange their holdings for crypto, and people did it, en masse. I remember that moment well, it happened with gold triggering a weekly buy signal in early 2018, around the 1200 mark, when I published it as a low risk long term buy. The idea here is to not marry anything and hodl, odds are it won't get you far in the coming years. Definitely be open to trading both sides when safe, with a defined technical setup, and don't use any shady platforms. I think it's probably wise to rely on traditional brokerage firms to safe guard your capital, and simply trade ETFs or futures (futures have better tax treatment when it comes to actively trading them). Contrary to prior years where we had some long term signal triggering in the 2 month timeframe, allowing us to hold and predict a bullish trend and its duration, we don't have any of that, and likely won't get it again, for a long time. Before, this pattern had allowed us to ride the bullish trend from 2016 to the top in early 2018, and the one from July 2020 to late 2021 perfectly. Eventually the market might bottom and reverse, and stage a bullish trend again, but it won't happen as soon as people think, I suspect. A lot of hardcoded 'Bulliefs' need to be challenged and abandoned by people before things can move up like they used to during bullish 'cycles'. Best of luck! Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
FX_IDC:XAGUSD
by IvanLabrie
2
Gold: Could go sharply higher if strongGold has an interesting trend as of late, ever since $DXY peaked and yields started coming down. It lately caught a bid even on days when bonds were selling off which made it interesting as it suggested we could be seeing rebalancing flows out of bonds and into gold (this happened right after the debate about increased spending surfaced in Congress). I caught part of the advance before, but I'm out for a couple weeks, might rejoin the trend if it breaks last week's high here. Best of luck! Ivan Labrie.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by IvanLabrie
2
$FSLR: resuming the big picture trend?First Solar has a nice trend in yearly scale, and lately had embarked in a series of powerful rallies in daily, weekly and monthly scale, since the Inflation Reduction Act vastly improved the outlook for the company. I'm inclined to go long on any trend continuation signal, but also being mindful of potential corrections that might trigger in the short term (although they will likely be short lived given fundamentals). I present to you both possible trades that can trigger here, if they trigger tomorrow, odds are higher of working. Else we will need to update entry prices on a day to day basis until triggered this week or next. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:FSLRLong
by IvanLabrie
$CRWD: Down trend expired as a failure...CrowdStrike offers a high reward to risk setup here, buying into strength after the recent daily timeframe down trend signal has expired without hitting the target in time, this type of scenario warrants a mean reversion move back to the distribution area where the move started from a few weeks ago, in a similar amount of time as the projected decline. I like that analysts who used to be bullish on the way down have capitulated and turned pessimistic on the stock as a bonus here.
NASDAQ:CRWDLong
by IvanLabrie
$LCID: Short squeeze?$LCID has a nice setup intraday here, which makes me think it will rally towards 7.25 on Tuesday-Wednesday next, provided it remains strong and marches higher than last week overall. Similar situation for most EV names here, seen also in $F, $TSLA, $RIVN, $LI, $XPEV and $NIO. It could be a good long term entry as well, if you want exposure to the sector (probably only really viable with $RIVN and $TSLA or just $TSLA though, but all are very tradeable here). I wouldn't have more than 10-20% in long term positions now, given overall risks, and not risk that unless you're up by that much or more for the year. Else stick to trading for the time being.
NASDAQ:LCIDLong
by IvanLabrie
$AMD: Bottom after a correction?$AMD has a nice setup forming here intraday, if price breaks over $65.02 you can expect a strong up day tomorrow, with upside to $66.02. If it fails to get follow through after triggering this buy and moves under $64.08 you can consider the short term entry failed and take the loss. Don't risk over 1-2% in such an entry...if it triggers. The daily down trend time has expired, so it suggests price could mean revert back to the down trend mode @ 70.67 within the next 7 daily bars or less. That's a good target for any position you let run for longer than a day after taking this short term opportunity to get long stock. Best of luck! Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:AMDLong
by IvanLabrie
$JPN225: Nikkei setting up for a rallyAs China reopening looms, maybe we get a boost too Japanese equities from here onwards...There's some interesting names, like Casio, whose line of luxury and more fashionable watches has been successful as of late. Definitely worth looking into it more. The index futures chart has a potential bottom signal in the short term at least, and with news of COVID zero being phased out, we might get the pop that is needed to kick start a Santa Rally here. Entries and stops and take profit levels on chart. Best of luck! Ivan Labrie.
FX:JPN225Long
by IvanLabrie
1
$XAUUSD: Monitoring positioning...Could gold be close to a long lasting bottom similar to the last time Commercial Hedgers covered their shorts and went net long? The last two times this happened we had a massive rally in precious metals each time. I do see some interesting variables at play that could prove a bottom in gold is happening. We have some potential fundamental variables that could contribute to that: The UK set a precedent for countries embarking on a more market friendly path, at the cost of rising deficits, to potentially attempt to save their local economies from the destruction rising rates and withdrawing liquidity (and hiking taxes) creates. If more countries start cutting taxes, and reversing their hawkish stances over time, we could see a reaction in the gold market. China is at an interesting juncture, with rumors of a change in leadership, a big CCP congress coming and people clearly sick of zero COVID measures, if there is a change in those variables it could also set some big trades in motion. Fed policy is already priced in by markets, bonds might be close to bottom or at a bottom, pricing in future rate cuts. CPI print coming, slowing of inflation would further reinforce the idea that maybe doing what the UK is starting to do makes sense. Many economists and fund managers agree that the Fed is making a mistake destroying the economy (and the world indirectly) attempting to curb inflation when the cause of inflation was govt action and lock downs and not monetary policy itself. A recession is clearly in motion, and won't be resolved too quickly, but the effect on gold and other commodities might be quick once these puzzle pieces align. From a technical, historical and positioning standpoint: Futures positioning is approaching a critical juncture, if Commercial hedgers cover all shorts, we will get a big signal to go long Gold. Each time it happened we had massive and lasting rallies in precious metals. At this pace, we can expect them to be flat or net long within 3-4 weeks. There is a Time@Mode weekly signal that expires in exactly 3 weeks! Yearly Time@Mode trend is up for another 3-4 years, and currently near a low risk buy zone with a stop @ 1517.18. If prices stay sideways after rallying above 1750, and maybe tagging the invasion level repeatedly, we could form a new yearly mode, which could propel gold higher for a few more years, once breaking out from the range, as per my chart. This fits with yearly time expiration in the long term $SPX chart and the idea that we are likely to see sideways/bearish action in markets to catch up to prior historical periods. Oil is likely repeating a similar move as the period in the year 2000-2003 as well, this chart idea from @timwest suggests we can get a correction in oil, to then get a big rally until it peaks near $500. This also fits with the idea that we could get a similar move in equities as in 2000-2009. A big decline in oil eventually sets the stage for support in equities with a time lag of 6/12 months as well. At some point, more governments are likely to reverse course on their destructive hawkish ways following the UK, this could be probable after elections if Trump wins the presidency in the US. Just something to consider, this is net bullish for gold and oil likely, as it would increase deficits and stimulate the economy to come back from a recession, globally. The culprit, is lock downs and fiscal policy more so than monetary policy errors, people will gradually realize this. All in all, I think the message is clear: odds of commodities outperforming equities are big, if we repeat a period like 2000 to 2011, or something like the 70s, and at some point we will get a clean shot at a bottom in oil and gold, which will likely be monster trades to put on. Stay away from equities, perhaps focus on miners, and other names that fared well in the aforementioned periods (some healthcare names did well, energy, gold and silver miners, copper/lithium). The EV adoption is a big fundamental trend as well, I think this sets the stage to get a big rally in lithium, for which I am positioned already in $LTHM. Have to time it well in regards to metals and oil, but we are getting closer to getting clarity on this home run trend and I think gold is a big and important cue to get a sense of timing here. Best of luck! Ivan Labrie.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
7
$TSLA: Could be a long term bottom...I suspect we saw an important low form in $TSLA here. We had a series of events, after sentiment was very depressed and people were focusing on share buy backs as a possible solution to $TSLA's woes, worrying about '$TWTR related overhang' and demand falling in China / price cuts, etc. We heard about: Soros building a stake and backing the company Munger warming up to $TSLA FSD no longer beta, available to everyone who requests it as of today Talk about investing in a new Gigafactory in Korea (which happens to have a free trade agreement with India) Talk about investing in lithium mining or acquiring a stake in some mining firm This might help support the stock long term here, as it's clear Elon Musk is still investing for growth, and not focusing on returning cash to shareholders (which would be something an ex-growth company would do). The solar business is starting to do well, and the 'inflation reduction act' is likely to help it gain more traction. Valuation has come down substantially, and the stock is down a lot, tagging monthly low volume support, near the down trend target from the same timeframe. With the last CPI report showing inflation is coming down, Biden approving one more oil export terminal, as well as recession risk being recognized by the Fed if they keep hiking aggressively I suspect we can get a substantially rally out of this juncture, and maybe even a long term bottom. I've initiated a long term position, after trying to capture a bottom recently, but selling before going lower. I was away from the stock since Elon sold shares to 'pay his fair share of taxes' after doubling from $600 or so when I had last bought it. Going forward, we need to see a basing pattern form, and pay close attention to fundamental catalysts to give us post pattern confirmation that the thesis here is correct. Currently, reward to risk and probability favor getting involved again, big time. As a sidenote: Happy Thanksgiving to those who celebrate it! Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by IvanLabrie
1
$AAPL: Bullish signal in the daily tf$AAPL has a nice setup that formed on Thursday, post CPI, with a chance to trigger a new 9 day trend on Monday if it holds up or moves higher. Upside to $167-170 by the end of November if it holds over $144-142. Despite the strength observed after CPI data came out, a lot of people are on the sidelines or still shorting or quoting the similarity to 2008 moves, etc. Hopefully this is a positive signal from sentiment... For now, data suggests we should be long and try to manage risk carefully until we have more clarity that we are out of the woods when it comes to downside risk. I'm personally not a fan of $AAPL as an investment but you have to monitor the signals and trade accordingly in speculative accounts (I suggest employing 25% of your total capital to trade short and mid term technical signals with strict risk management, and set aside 75% of the capital for long term investments with WAY wider invalidation criteria, also tracking fundamental variables to decide when to exit, or add, or cut exposure down, etc.). Best of luck! Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by IvanLabrie
2
$SPY: Trend expiration and more$SPY shows a daily trend that is reaching the end of its forecasted time duration, and a series of fundamental key levels that might act as magnets and support or resistance levels as price gravitates towards them. Currently, if price stays sideways for 1 more day (or more) and then breaks down sharply, we can get a reversal of the uptrend we had since the October 13th's low. The expiration of the most recent daily trend implies price stays sideways for a few days before breaking out to the upside again if trending up, or, that it will return to support below, roughly @ $379.6, within the next 8 trading days (similarly to $XLF). Well worth monitoring this chart, things are about to get interesting again. Bond yields have gone up for a long time, and might be turning around, which can imply an array of different scenarios for equities and fixed income, so far, market participants assumed inflation peaking was a bullish factor for stocks but it might be the case that we are entering into a recession and stocks remain under pressure while bonds bottom here. Best of luck! Ivan Labrie.
AMEX:SPYShort
by IvanLabrie
2