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Labrietrading

$BTCUSD: Things go full circle...Now that crypto faces a Gox type catastrophe, we might get some substantial downside and perhaps we get rid of people bag holding from April 2021, who have been confident in loss and adding on the way down. Including the ones who thought 20k was a bottom (all the guys who missed the prior bull cycle ending in late 2021, when they sold the ATH retest in Dec 2020). We sure needed a good ole' sentiment reset in crypto and for some reason despite some things looking bullish we never had it, as price never flushed low enough to take everyone out, this had kept me uneasy about the basing pattern we had here since the post-Luna debacle low. Patience paid off as I mostly made some small gains instead of losing big being trapped long like everyone is now. I went short today, and added a tad lower, with an avg around 18835. I did take a small loss when one of CZ's tweets had made price jump back over 19750, but it was short lived as news emerged of antitrust issues being an obstacle for CZ to buy FTX.com. Jury's still out on that one but the chart looks primed for a drop as we now have both the weekly and monthly timeframes indicating sharp downside ahead. Stay safe out there! Best of luck! Cheers. Ivan Labrie.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by IvanLabrie
13
$BTCUSD: Monthly view...Friendly reminder that the trend is down long term...Here's how the monthly chart looks in $BTCUSD as of right now. Unless this month's range is wiped out, you can expect continued downside for months to come with substantial certainty. Don't fight the trend, remember what Old Turkey would say: well, it's a bear market after all. So much filth is gradually being exposed, and a lot more dominoes will fall into place if we continue falling: Miner capitulation: no sign of abating, will accelerate below 14200 (see all earning reports for publicly traded mining firms, all at risk due to being leveraged long $BTCUSD with $BTCUSD / ASIC collateral pretty much. Tough time to service debt with higher rates, and less availability of credit. (rising credit spreads) They might be forced to puke out of their Bitcoin positions at whatever price... Saylor at risk below 13500: $MSTR might be at risk of collapsing the lower we go, which charts suggest we will, can cause a flood of supply hitting the market, same as miners selling or worse. Mt Gox repaying creditors? Contgion is the name of the game: 3AC, Terra, FTX, BlockFi, Genesis... Silvergate next? Tons of bad credit and leverage built into the system are gradually being unwind, nowhere near done. Regulatory risk increasing by the hour. Stablecoins at risk as well...Talk of CBDCs accelerating, which might or might not matter much, but worth monitoring. What am I missing? Feel free to comment with interesting bits and pieces of info so that we can complete the puzzle here. It's in flux but the trend is clearly not positive for crypto here. Best of luck! Ivan Labrie.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by IvanLabrie
10
$EURAUD: Aussie bottomed, Euro overbought...We have a great setup in the $EURAUD pair here, I am fine standing behind a position like this: on one hand we got the chance that the Dollar peaked, and specially the Aussie dollar primed to do well due to FDI and exports mix favoring it over a net commodity importer currency with weak fundamentals and geopolitical risk, paired with the China reopening and bottom in Copper and Iron Ore, this is a great play all things considered and adds some valuable Alpha to a portfolio here. Technical setup shows a daily T@M signal indicating a reversal of the existing daily trend, which happens while Monthly is overbought and hitting resistance, and as the Dollar Index hit the 200 day SMA, which makes me think it might catch a bid. If so, funding currencies are likely a fade, specially vs $AUD or $NZD, as a risk on bet (bet is bond yields peaked as well). Best of luck! Ivan Labrie.
Short
by IvanLabrie
$USDJPY: Weekly trend signal points to a steady advance$USDJPY has a new trend continuation signal here, weekly and daily trends are bullish, as well as monthly, quarterly and even yearly. Energy and bonds suggest we will see rising yields for longer, FX looks like the dollar has ample reasons to remain bid and the BOJ and ECB are the weakest central banks here, relatively vs the Fed's policy stance, as well as from a macro standpoint as energy importers facing an energy crunch, which is bound to be negative variable as well. I'm long $UUP calls and short $NZDUSD, adding some $USDJPY exposure here to remain exposed to the dollar trend. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
9
$ETSY: Monster base!I like the setup in $ETSY here, suggesting a massive bottoming pattern is active. The signal suggests a rally towards $150 to $224 by the week starting on Jan 23rd 2023 or sooner will take place as long as the stock holds up and moves steadily higher instead of going back below $101.12, nullifying the breakout from 'fair value'. Valuation is substantially lower now, with PSR reaching levels not seen since 2020 lows, and although loss making in the last quarter, ESP TTM shows the company is profitable. Revenue growth slowed down since 2019 but the trend for revenue is clearly up. Free cash flow yield of 4.5% vs market cap is not bad for such an emerging growth name. Definitely interesting here! Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:ETSYLong
by IvanLabrie
1
$GM: Interesting weekly uptrendI like the setup in $GM, which I think can move fast here if EV names gain traction. I'm already long $F from lower in my long term account, but want to add a short/mid term position in $GM here. Valuation is not as interesting and I don't particularly love Mary Barra's execution or her being prone to corrupt political shenanigans with Unions and Biden backing her, but well, the setup is good and likely will produce good returns within 8 weeks. The company is highly leveraged, and revenue growth is low, but seems to have bottomed out. Price to sales suggests it's cheap, same as earnings yield which sits at 14% ish. They have been burning cash though, but perhaps their cheap EVs and the Silverado truck do well going forward. I'm not likely to participate for longer than short and mid term technical setups suggest we should remain involved with the stock though. Best of luck! Ivan Labrie.
NYSE:GMLong
by IvanLabrie
$SPY: updated short term viewWe have a setup indicating immediate upside towards the area where a cluster of earning season related key levels align, and the mid point of the Ukraine invasion range sits, to be hit likely by late November. The question is whether bonds have bottomed long term here, as that suggests the trend in the Dollar is reversing, which could have big implications for earnings in foreign currency and basically everything as it impacts sovereign entities with Dollar denominated debt, households squeezed by rising mortgage rates, etc. Regarding equities, we could be at a juncture where we have an extended sideways bear market, which doesn't exclude powerful rallies lasting a few months, with substantial corrections as well, perhaps lasting until the next decade. As usual, we go step by step, but I've selected some long term positions I intend to hold on to, for as long as logical, depending on how fundamentals evolve, rebalancing when needed or rotating into other names with a larger opportunity vs risk, etc. Trading wise, I suggest to set aside 25% of the capital for short term trading and dedicate 75% of funds for long term ideas. Risking 0.25% per trade in the trading account (1% of 25%) has been solid advice since I recommended this to my client base back in March. It was not the time to play Rambo in markets...But some big moves are brewing here. If interested in learning more, contact me. Good luck! Ivan Labrie.
AMEX:SPYLong
by IvanLabrie
$NZDUSD: Tight stop, big target...I think the Kiwi offers a tremendous reward to risk ratio on the short side here. The situation with persistent inflation and rising energy prices is certainly a headwind for the economy, combined with Powell's increased determination as per his last speech at Jackson Hole, has helped bears gain ground here, triggering both a daily and a weekly down trend simultaneously. The invalidation for this signal is a move back above the 0.6255 mark, in which case a short squeeze would happen. Currently, the chart signal points to a decline towards 0.5762 by October 21st, the latest. Overall, good setup in the currency market to add to a more holistic trading portfolio (like mine). Any market that adds uncorrelated returns, is a good use of leverage/cash. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
Short
by IvanLabrie
2
$AUDUSD: Looking like a bottom...I suspect the Dollar Index is reversing, so I am identifying the currency pairs best positioned to rally from here. Given Australia's commodity exports, the Aussie pair is likely to benefit from increasing demand for copper, iron ore, lithium, to name a few, for years to come. Such tailwind won't help much if the Federal Reserve is still embarking in QT and tightening sprees, but we have some evidence pointing to a chance for CBs and govts/treasuries to reverse course or engage in some sort of policy reversal or pivot, via various tools at their disposal on the fiscal and monetary side of things. The headwind for Australia and Asia/Pacific being China as a wild card, post CPC 20th Congress, and black swan risk of a Taiwan invasion. That said, if conflict does arise, precious metals would likely rally, and probably help boost the Aussie dollar as well. Overall I suspect we are headed for a long period of outperformance for commodities and commodity exporters' currencies in the FX realm. Emerging Markets become interesting in that regard as well, worth looking into them for opportunities too. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
1
$LTHM: EV adoption + inelastic supply...I think $LTHM offers tremendous long term upside here from a fundamental POV, as well as technical. I have a LEAPS position going, aiming to capture the upside in the chart. I suggest you keep some long term exposure to it via shares or calls (riskier, Jan 2024 calls should be fine). Miners will have a tough time ramping up lithium mining to meet EV makers demand, as more and more battery factories are being built. This has tremendous potential to boost lithium demand while supply remains capped. Much higher lithium prices will ensue until supply can increase (not likely, and there's no economical way to replace the current extraction methods yet). Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
Editors' picks
LLong
by IvanLabrie
7
$ETHUSD: Ethereum buy signal popped in the weekly...Interesting reward to risk here, I'm long $ETHUSD with a relatively tight stop. If the weekly pans out here, we may get a rally towards 2550 next, but I suspect price might need to base sideways after reaching the 1560 mark, before moving higher steadily. Definitely an interesting trade setup as it is he first bullish signal in weekly scale since a bearish signal popped in said timeframe back in late December 2021, which at the time seemed extremely risky and warned me to back away from crypto exposure since then. We had some intensive declines until now and a lot of people likely were blown up in pieces between the devastating losses caused by Celsius, Luna and other ponzi schemes collapsing, together with the big declines across the board in all crypto assets. I was skeptical overall, since I hadn't seen sentiment deteriorate enough, but I could be wrong. Since reward to risk is potentially very good, I am willing to get involved here. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
KRAKEN:ETHUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
2
$MSTR: From leader of men to outcastMichael Saylor used to be revered by Bitcoin fanatics, since he was mega bullish their favorite asset class and loud as hell. The ultimate degenerate gambler in the space. His other people's money gambling habits are nothing new, as he battled with fraud allegations back in the hey day of the Dot Com bubble. Now he's making yet another fund raising round to buy yet more Bitcoin, this time not using debt, but rather issuing new shares. There's a very clear technical trend signal that formed here and indicates a rally has started and can extend until either the $551.38 target is reached or the October 28th deadline is met. Another thing to keep in mind is that the monthly down trend signal in the stock expires during October, which could be a sign of a general recovery in crypto for the next 10 months as well: There's an interesting resistance level higher, see the red line on chart, it indicates the price zone where Elon Musk bought Bitcoin back in Jan 2nd 2021. The SEC filing announcing it publicly didn't come out until February 8th, and that was the very top in $MSTR, who was the loudest proponent of putting Bitcoin in companies' balance sheet as an inflation/doomsday hedge. I'm not in the stock, and option premium is historically astronomical so the smartest way to play it is to buy or sell stock in general. The weekly trend signal activated on Friday when price moved over $258.97. Entries at that price or lower would be good, invalidation for the signal would be on a drop under $219.39. I have a hard time going long here, same as everyone I talk to regularly about markets, but it seems like the right thing to do. I'm personally long Bitcoin and Ethereum, as well as $COIN, but not in $MSTR yet. I'd trade this one small to be safe, since it's a far riskier play than the other 3 I mentioned. Perhaps a 1% long shot gamble would be adequate. 6.6%+- would risk 1% give or take. Risking 0.1-0.2% seems ok to me here. If this were to be a more long lasting bottom, upside would be significant and make it worth it. We can figure that out over time, as we get more cues from price and fundamental events. Best of luck if you're entering this one, if it gaps up on Monday, then it's probably best to just let it go. Chances are you followed my Bitcoin publication and bot that near 21030, so that would be more than enough exposure really....Still interesting to track this chart and fundamental events as Saylor can have a significant impact on Bitcoin, considering the amount he holds. Risks floating over Bitcoin's head like a Damocles sword are mainly Saylor's bag needing to be liquidated in loss over time, and MtGox creditors being repaid. I'd keep an eye out for those events. Once out of the way, Bitcoin has far less risk and way bigger chances of achieving sustained, long term upside. Best of luck! Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:MSTRLong
by IvanLabrie
2
$TSLA: Weekly and Monthly turned upAs per my prior post, $TSLA started to reverse the decline from the market top, after Elon sold shares back then. Recently, Kimbal Musk exercised options to purchase shares, and we had a series of interesting developments. The last report was very good considering the lock downs in China affecting $TSLA Shanghai as well as sales in China, as well as high commodity prices weighing in on input costs. Despite this, $TSLA surged after reporting earnings which showed they generated $621M in free cash flow despite factory costs and China lock downs impacting them. They raised $936M from selling Bitcoin, which also helps reduce risk and correlational impact from down days in crypto markets, and might ease some PM anxiety regarding the company (and mine). Weekly trend turned bullish last week, I am long, holding here, but interesting to note the new monthly signal, which points to a price target of $1625 by May 2023. Upcoming fundamental catalysts are interesting as well, and combined with the new spending plan, set the stage for a rally provided my general market view is correct here. I don't consider the stock split a big deal, but it will help trade options safely for people with smaller accounts, that's likely coming during August, then we have a potential credit rating upgrade as well. By October, the $TWTR trial is a risk but might help get rid of some risk in the stock, as Elon could need to sell shares if forced to acquire the company. Best of luck! Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by IvanLabrie
3
$DXY: New weekly signal spotted...The dollar index has flashed a buy signal in the daily and weekly timeframes here, I've bot some exposure to it via long calls in $UUP expiring by late September. The weekly Time@Mode trend signal forecast implies a substantial move lasting 6 weeks from here onwards. Downside risk is small, the signal suggests a 3.65 times reward to risk ratio, if the target is reached and the stop isn't, since the signal popped on Thursday this week. Trading FX signals like this adds a nice source of alpha to a stocks portfolio, I like to focus on the dollar index for simplicity's sake, but at times there's good opportunities in cross pairs as well, for those avid with macro analysis. Best of luck if buying the dollar here, expect a strong rally until the target is reached at least, with +60% odds. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
ICEUS:DX1!Long
by IvanLabrie
1
$UNG: Next leg up in Nat Gas pricesI think we may see a rapid advance in Nat Gas here, the technical setup in $UNG paves the way for a 18.4:1 reward to risk potential trade. I'm long equity here, but you could trade this with options, or an equivalent fund in the EU or UK (if you're EU based). Futures or options on futures are also an option, but more complicated to execute with maximum efficiency. I suggest you explore this if you're more experienced, and able to determine which strategy to use to maximize RR and performance vs capital allocated to this idea. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
AMEX:UNGLong
by IvanLabrie
6
$DXY: Trend is up, hard to stop the advance...The Dollar offers a nice reward to risk entry as a continuation trade here. I'm long via FX pairs and a Dollar Index position. Eventually, it might take coordinated intervention to stop this advance, fundamentals are firmly in place for a continued trend in the Dollar against foreign currencies, given the limitations to affect the energy market and of monetary policy itself in the Euro area. Japan benefits from increased competitivity for their exports, and won't be able to stop the advance if they wished to do so on their own. Perhaps at some point we will get coordinated intervention similar to what transpired in 1985 with the Plaza Accord. The rally here in quarterly and yearly scale is potentially of huge scale, so I'll be ready to trade any continuation signal to the upside while the trend variables remain in place. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
TVC:DXYLong
by IvanLabrie
2
$AAPL: Bubble popped...again?I'm short $AAPL here, I think it is at risk if tensions escalate further with China, after $NVDA and $AMD were banned from exporing sensitive AI related gear to China. The chart shows a weekly down trend has popped and a monthly decline can confirm on close if it stays down long enough. Downside is substantial, as seen on chart, the last weekly trend hit the target, before staging a rapid relief rally following the expiration of the trend. I identified the bottom when Goldman Sachs cut their target for $AAPL downgrading it before an epic rally ensued. They have a pretty good inverse track record historically in this regard. Best of luck if taking this trade, Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by IvanLabrie
2
$TLT: Preparing to buy when safeI am monitoring bonds here, as we are approaching the target of a weekly down trend signal that fired recently, while the monthly timeframe trend is about to reach its end. By the end of September, the odds of a reversal in bonds will be very high, while equities are looking like they could crash lower from here possibly, and we could get inflation to come down, likely due to the effect of recessionary forces at play thanks to Powell's hawkishness. Since the Federal Reserve is hell bent on killing inflation hiking rates, and the data they use won't make them worry about this course of action until it's likely too late, odds of something breaking badly here are substantial. As such, I'm eager to spot the bottom in $TLT / $ZROZ to invest. We have a decent enough juncture here, where it starts making sense to pay attention to reversal cues in multiple timeframes and monitor signals closely to go long big time when confirmed. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by IvanLabrie
$NQ_F: Looks like a weekly uptrend could triggerIf prices hold up during next week, equities can stage a substantially strong weekly advance. The same pattern is visible in $ES_F and $SPY overall, and also crypto. We might have seen a long lasting major low set in stone in markets across the board. Prices of oil have come down more than 30% since the top 6 months ago, this gives equities a boost over time with a 3-6-9 month lag to reap the fruits of the lower cost of energy as a tailwind for the economy going forward (as depicted in @timwest's publication on the subject, see related ideas). People had reached peak pessimism lately, and even though meme stock gamblers still are around, I believe they might not represent a significant contrarian signal for the broad market but rather simply be the latest incarnation of the penny stock gamblers and pump and dump forum users of old, as a new generation of traders joins the market. Over time we will know more but I suspect this is a meaningful juncture longer term and we should all be paying VERY close attention to the developments in energy, the war in Ukraine, China and the fate of Xi's leadership and zero COVID, renewables and EV adoption and monetary policy of course. Going forward we have various headwinds as well, potential increase of labor costs if deglobalization/reshoring takes place, higher than target sustained inflation rates and gradually higher bond yields after being suppressed for years in a world in a state of lull for a decade, etc. I like the idea of focusing on a few core themes and managing risk in concentrated bets to milk said themes in the event of a rally, so my positioning is spread across a small list of individual names, rather than index products. Although it's interesting to track developments in index charts as well. Best of luck! Ivan Labrie.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by IvanLabrie
1
$ETHUSDT: Merge incoming, uptrend in the daily$ETHUSDT is interesting, I've been bullish relatively vs Bitcoin for a while, but got out of my latest attempt at riding the pair trade in minor loss of 0.15% yesterday. I had secured some gains since my last publications before, and tried buying back after a dip. See related ideas for the last post. There is a lingering chance of forming a monthly uptrend in $ETHBTC, so I do like the idea of having some $ETHUSD exposure (although smaller than my Bitcoin long given the higher volatility and risk). Fundamental events are interesting, as we approach the timeline for the Merge of the Beacon chain (secured by POS ) and the old chain secured by POW, which will occur at some point between now and the next 9 days give or take. Following this change, issuance of Ethereum will go down dramatically as most people know, and given the changes introduced with EIP1559, could eventually even become deflationary over time as fees are burnt at a greater rate than coins are created. Staking can result in an APR of 4.5-7% potentially, which might make it attractive if inflation rates come down over time. For price to form a long term uptrend, a larger than 10 month bar signal must fire, which isn't yet doable, but depending on how things evolve, could be achievable after October. Just a low probability scenario for now, but given the low risk of buying down here vs potential upside in that scenario, is something that I'd evaluate over time. As more and more data points confirm we are safe to hold, we can let the trade run and capture a big trend landing us huge reward to risk multiples. Hence my interest in being relatively early with buying strength after big declines, when people are not as interested as at the peak euphoria we had in April 2021 or in Dec 2021. Let's see how it evolves, owning $ETH spot with say 5% of your capital might be a good decision here. Be wary of the average price level at which people staked coins a while back, that level can act as supply and slow down or even reverse any advance, if price were to test it next. Best of luck! Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
1