ARVL Penny EV Stock Momentum from EarningsOn the 2H Chart ARVL is always been underneath the Ichimoku cloud. Since earnings this has
changed. The earnings were nothing special. ARVL as a startup is still losing cash; it is priced
on the potential of the future. ARVL is in the delivery truck and bus segment of the growing
EV industry. It does not compete directly with TSLA. On the chart relative strengh also rose
over its cloud going from 40 to 70. Notably it crossed above the Ichimoku cloud simultaneously
with crossing over the POC line. Traders including myself watch for confluences to support
bias and a trend.
My feeler call option with 5 DTE trade was taken on Friday is up 228% over the weekend.
I will now take ten more but extend the DTE to 6/2 I see this as a typical penny stock high
reward high risk. This is like TSLA in its infancy. Also the higher it gets away from delisting risk
the more momentum it might have. This compares well and perhaps better than
LCID NKLA and PSR because it has a niche focus which protects it from the center
of the competition with other EV stocks.
Lcid
Pursuit of the the next Tesla..!Most people invest their money in these 3 companies, NIO, LUCID, Rivian, or all of them because they had missed the opportunity to participate in the inflationary phase of the Tesla Bubble..!
Unfortunately, now the deflationary phase of the bubble overlap, and they are coming down on the latitude mode..!
People who invested in these stocks have lost more than 2/3 of their money and it will not be back soon..!
Why?
Because these companies do not generate meaningful revenue to become interesting for big players..!
I forecast single-digit price tags for all of them in 2022, NIO could go down to 5 or below..!
Best,
Dr . Moshkelgosha M.D
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
Tesla - $250 Is Coming... Don't Lose Your Legs In the Bear Trap As I said in my previous call on Tesla, which was rather successful, I'm not a big fan of Elon Musk.
Tesla TSLA - The Bottom Is In, But It's Still Bearish
Especially as the post-Twitter acquisition has unfolded, I feel Musk rode the wave he could to do his "Twitter Files" thing and clawback some rightists/Conservatives that were alienated under the former Mastodon socialist leadership.
But the Twitter Files weren't really news to anyone who actually has been following COVID lockdown narrative or January 6 Capitol Riot censorship. And now Twitter is kind of the same as it's always been, but more shadowbanny, and will increasingly become more and more central to the coming globalist Central Bank Digital Currency/social credit system.
Musk, a transhumanist, has alluded to transforming Twitter into an "everything app" himself, all while lauding the communist regime in China's WeChat as if it were some kind of good thing.
CBDCs and social credit are, ultimately, the world outside of the Chinese Communist Party attempting to emulate and import the CCP's operational methodology and ways. This is a disaster for mankind, and should be opposed and challenged by everyone who wants a future.
A Warning on Red China
As always, my usual warning, especially for a company like Tesla that has a Gigafactory in Shanghai: you have to be very careful in bullish market conditions with the pandemic situation in China. Western media simply isn't reporting anything and the CCP keeps a very strict censorship regimen with a high degree of secrecy, so you'll be in the dark until it's too late to cry about your gap losses.
Xi Jinping and his Chinese Communist Party claims to have only suffered ~85,000 deaths since Wuhan Pneumonia began. That's 59 deaths per million people, and is literally a laughable claim that the epicenter of the pandemic and the world's (formerly) most populous country has suffered a factor of 10 or 60 times less magnitude of fatalities than the west that the regime exported the disease to.
In reality, this is obviously impossible. Moreover, the CCP covered up the 2003 SARS pandemic. A lot, a lot of people died during that pandemic, but the regime just told the world that everything was great.
Only a total fool believes anything that the CCP says.
The problem for a company like Tesla is a huge sum of both its supply and demand is tightly wed to China, and a pandemic situation that Xi can't keep under control and a weak Communist Party means the risk of black swan events hitting in the middle of the night when the US markets are closed is _extremely_ significant.
The Call
Now for price action, markets, especially NASDAQ and tech, all mooned in the wake and run up to FOMC. But this also came in the first two days of February, and we have a Jerome Powell speech on Feb. 7 and jobless claims on the 9th.
It's reasonable (and important) to anticipate that the low set at 10:30 AM on Feb.1 @ $169.95 is not going to be the low of the month.
It's also important to notice that the mania candle swept out the December high by 8 cents and was followed by a ~4% retrace, significant because it set up a double top pattern on the daily candles.
In my opinion, there's a very high chance that Tesla will dump rather aggressively to liquidate leveraged longs, raid long stops, and make weekly call options expire worthless, a move that will simultaneously serve as a bear trap.
$162 to $133 is a rather wide range, but it represents a combination of a weekly price displacement and a microgap. In combination with range equilibrium being $150, and $150 being a psychological operation number, a sweep all the way down to $145~ is something I anticipate.
Now, all that being said, what I would like to say is that Tesla has been so crazily bullish (almost doubling in under 30 trading sessions; this was still a $300 billion market cap company!), that range equilibrium may not be touched, and those gaps underneath it may be breakaway gaps.
So that being said, you have a hard choice if you want to go long on a dump. Because if you see $160, you really might not get better than $160 and Tesla doesn't like to stay low for long if it's going up. But if you buy $160 it can drop another 10 or maybe 15 percent, which means your calls turn (or expire if you're degen weekly) worthless.
This is a real game theory problem as the MMs, who know the schedule, use time as their greatest weapon. So perhaps a reasonable strategy is to go for the TSLL leveraged long ETF at $160 and just baghold/add if it drops more.
Bears talking about the gaps at $85 and lower, it's not that they're wrong... It's that Tesla already fell from $330~ to $100 in the course of a few months, and this was one of the world's largest companies by market cap. You really cannot afford to be so greedy to bottom short and bottom short and bottom short. You were already so lucky that you could bottom short and not get your head split for so long.
It's really very rare in equities to be able to do that.
The bounce has been so extreme that the market makers have thus made it clear that both two digit Tesla is not coming right now, and also that when you do see two digit Tesla, you can't buy it.
TL;DR, Tesla $250 is the next stop. If you get so lucky as to buy $150, I think that's pretty good, and you should even hold a portion of your position through $250.
NKLA Is Nikola puting in a bottom ?NKLA is trying to make an all time low. Fundamentally, the last earnings were okay. Some members of
the board are retiring soon. Technically, the relative selling volume is much higher than the moving 50 day average.
The zero lag MACD shows no bullish divergence suggesting that that there is no impending reversal. The
indicators K/D lines have not crossed indicating the moving average compression / convergence are continuing.
Price has fallen outside the Bollinger Bands. NKLA finished out the week with some engulfing bear candles
on the news of instability on its governing board. This is unlike the candlestick pattern when NKLA did minor
pullbacks on the downtrend foreseen by small body red candles to setup up the minor pullbacks.
All in all, as a penny stock, this is probably not shortable but it does have put options for $23.00 per contract
for the $1.00 strike DTE 5 with a spread of 5% with high volatility and open interest ( reasonable liquidity) I will
take a put option trade of several contracts targeting 50% return and setting a stop loss at 10%.
I have always found it helpful to have some naked puts in the portfolio so when the general market of SPY / QQQ reverses t
o the downside they can help the put options capture some profit in the synergy.
LCID Lucid Cup and Handle Short then LongFSR has formed the cup of the cup and handle pattern and is now starting the
downturn formation of the handle. Price action should continue down to the 50%
retracement of the uptrend of the cup. It should then reverse and trend upward
to twice the height of the cup/ AO /MACD / RSI confirm the downtrend.
I will target this with the $8.50 strike put options expiring 3/10 and then upon
hitting the full retracement close than position and open $9.50 call options
expiring 3/17. Overall, expecting 200-300% realized profit on the trades.
Not at all a surprise but FSR / Fisker has the same pattern and so a similar
idea.
FISKER FSR Cup and Handle Short then LongFSR has formed the cup of the cup and handle pattern and is now starting the
downturn formation of the handle. Price action should continue down to the 50%
retracement of the uptrend of the cup. It should then reverse and trend upward
to twice the height of the cup/ AO /MACD / RSI confirm the downtrend.
I will target this with the $7.50 strike put options expiring 3/10 and then upon
hitting the full retracement close than position and open $8.50 call options
expiring 3/17. Overall, expecting 200-300% realized profit on the trades.
Not at all a surprise but LCID / Lucid has the same pattern and so a similar
idea.
$BBBY Shorts started coveringThese 15 min candles are what show shorts covering. The green disks we can expect a domino effect with the covering here soon. Expect volatility to come and big moves to come.
Watchlist 2023-01-30 #BIDU #JD #RIVN #LCIDSPY gapping below PD open, putting any Friday longs underwater. I think it tests the convergence of the balance are top and the descending trendline around 400 - 401.50. From there, look to see if pops are sold are if they hold, that will tell if we had enough fuel to continue higher or if we need a larger flush out before approaching the 410 area.
BIDU - launching an AI-power chatbot in March. Not only is this the hot topic right now like crypto in 2021, but BIDU is also gapping over a balance area with a prior day bullish hammer. A+ setup if we can hold over 139. No real resistance until 150, and with a 5.0 ATR range is possible this could go that far today if SPY heats up. However, no bias until price actions confirms thesis as other ADRs are gapping down today.
JD - panning to exit sales in exit Thailand and Indonesia market. Sitting on key support at 61. If this can't hold, 58.30 at the 200MA is the next target. To Improve risk reward, better to sell pops in this IMO as long as they fade after and don’t hold.
Watching other ADRs if weakness from PM continues: BEKE, BABA, PPD
RIVN - keeping this on watch over the high volume node at 20.30. Also, past the April 25 2022 key pivot resistance at 19.30. If LCID buyout bullishness continues, RIVN could have a support rally.
$LCID: Short squeeze?$LCID has a nice setup intraday here, which makes me think it will rally towards 7.25 on Tuesday-Wednesday next, provided it remains strong and marches higher than last week overall.
Similar situation for most EV names here, seen also in $F, $TSLA, $RIVN, $LI, $XPEV and $NIO. It could be a good long term entry as well, if you want exposure to the sector (probably only really viable with $RIVN and $TSLA or just $TSLA though, but all are very tradeable here). I wouldn't have more than 10-20% in long term positions now, given overall risks, and not risk that unless you're up by that much or more for the year. Else stick to trading for the time being.
LCID TO 4??? / MACRO ANALYSIS / FIB / DEVIATIONPoints:
- LCID is showing a Deviation of 6 Points placing current price action in new channel.
- Current channel = Supply Zone at $10 & Demand Zone at $4.
- Down 89.19% in past 405 days.
- RSI Average at an all time low.
IMO: I would consider LCID to be a reasonable buy at $4. Opening a position at these prices with appropriate risk management skills can come come to yield decent returns in the near future.
DGSTACC: TESLA BOUNCE INCOMING!!!In the chart above I have provided a macro analysis of TESLA by providing a visual on confirmed channels, past and current trend & RSI patterns.
Points:
1. Channels show a deviation of 60 points currently placing us in the second to last channel that holds between 60 - 20 for DEMAND & SUPPLY .
2. Current channel is in fact risky to buy into considering we are in a Supply Zone with a channel that has seen little consolidation in past price action.
3. Tesla is now currently down 73% in the past year.
4. We are now currently in what I believe to be a SHORT BELOW CURRENT TREND that should come to see a pull back into our current down trend at least.
5. RSI is at a crucial pivot point where a dead cat bounce is worst case scenario if we are to take away from previous times RSI has been this low.
Note: A squeezing triangle pattern has been indicative of a bullish climb in the near future.
NASDAQ:TSLA
DGSTACC: LCID TO 4??? / MACRO ANALYSIS / FIB / DEVIATIONPoints:
- LCID is showing a Deviation of 6 Points placing current price action in new channel.
- Current channel = Supply Zone at $10 & Demand Zone at $4 .
- Down 89.19% in past 405 days.
- RSI Average at an all time low.
IMO : I would consider LCID to be a reasonable buy at $4. Opening a position at these prices with appropriate risk management skills can come come to yield decent returns in the near future.
LCID Short or GET OUT OF ITNASDAQ:LCID
Major Bearish Trend, Nothing bright in the future, Not in the technical view or fundamental.
The company is losing money, doesn't produce any products, just lies to investors, and wastes their time.
Short it if you get a nice short Fee, leave it if you are long.
Good luck
(*Shorted it so many times)
Price goal - 2$ until bankruptcy
Lucid Motors Going Back to $10.00If we take the previous zones with Lucid Motors we can see that we are about to break a critical zone that could potentially bring us first to $13.00 then to $10.00 (SPAC Levels)
LCID has posted poor delivery numbers with numerous expectations. In essence they are burning money at a fast rate, thus quickly diminishing the future expected stock price.
Tread carefully.
How LCID Share Price May Behave After Disappointed Earnings?Lucid's (LCID) share price has been moving within a narrow price range since the beginning of November (the shaded area in yellow), while LCID share has been trading with the bearish tone in general. Lucid stock is trading on both sides of the 25-day exponential moving average and below the longer-term moving averages in a negative sign on the short and medium term.
Now, on the daily chart, the EMA-50 usually forms a difficult line to break, and LCID share price fails to surpass it and stabilize above it. Accordingly, the reversal of LCID share price from this line, as well as the reversal from the dynamic resistance level or the opening below the yellow price range at $13.15, this may lead us to decline towards the level of $12.20 or below towards the level of $10, levels that the price of Lucid share since 2021.
On the flip side, if LCID share price was able to recover the EMA, it might lead us to the level of 15.68 50 again, while the test of the EMA-100 may be a difficult test for LCID share at the time.
Fundamentally, Lucid recorded a net loss of $530 million for the third quarter of this year, and revenues of $195 million, compared to revenues of $232 million during the corresponding quarter of last year. In addition to recording earnings per share of -40 cents, compared to -43 during the corresponding quarter of last year. While the company stuck to its previous guidance of producing between 6000-7000 cars during the whole year.
LUCID $LCID Long?Lucid analytics:
2 Gaps have been found
- short at $12
- long at $18
Key importance are earning report is coming 11-7-22 Monday. Keep an eye on the report. Nonetheless, we HAVE to close the gap at $18. Keep an eye on the earning report and long to $18
$LCID Earnings/FOMC meeting push -- Potential IHS patternOn the $LCID 4H+ext chart it looks like we've started a potential IHS (Inverted head & shoulders) pattern.
IHS:
Using fibannaci retracement and extension from the high to the low (point 3) we can see a shoulder line forming on the 0.236 fibannaci extension at points 1 & 5. Resistance starts forming at near the 0.236 fibanacci retracement around $13.05 -- which also coincides with some resistance on the volume profile.
At this point it looks like we've started to clear the neck line resistance and we're moving up the fibannaci extension -- as well as the upcoming gap in the volume profile.
Stochastic is over > 60, MACD is making higher highs, and the TTM is firing to the upside.
Considering the macro is looking to potentially do a relief rally leading up to the FOMC meeting on 11/02 and $LCID earnings is on 11/08 we might see a continuation of a channel upwards through this gap in volume.
From Oct 21 close looks like at least another +0.31 pts +2.31% to the upside if momentum continues Mon, Oct 24 as we continue pushing up the gap in the volume profile. Keep in mind the current extension is showing potential resistance/support at the 0.618 line at $13.20. We would need to clear this line with momentum to gap up to the 0.786 line which is where volume profile resistance starts building up.
We have been in a massive bull flag downward channel for quite some time, so expect big resistance as the extension approaches the 1.0 line at $14.02 (+0.71 pts +5.37% upside)-- which happens to coincide with the top line resistance of this bull flag channel.
If we are able to clear this channel and climb up the volume profile, the 4h+ext point of control on the volume profile is up at $15.06, which would be a +1.74 pts +13.09% change to the upside.
Continue monitoring stochsatic and ttm squeeze; break in trend would be a collapse of 0.618 $13.20 support which we could snap the 0.5 quickly and probably land back near the 0.382, and the next major shelf of support on the volume profile around $12.90
PT 1: $13.56 (+2.31%)
PT 2: $14.02 (+5.37)
PT 3 (Max): $15.06 (+13.09%)
Stop limit (break of 0.618 support and snap 0.5 support): $12.90 (-3%)
TESLA - $TSLA - Head & Shoulder - Distribution almost OVER!!!!!When great trees fall, rocks on distant hills shudder, lions hunker down in tall grasses, and even elephants lumber after safety.
Soon Tesla will move from the head & shoulder -- down to its KNEES and that is when we will execute our entry for a long hold.
Sorry Elon, your Ponzi gig is up, you can't produce because you don't have materials and the ones that exist are over priced just like your vehicles.
Your stuck boo, your in a corner, stalemate, king cannot MOVE!
I presented this head & shoulder pattern on $TSLA back in July, before the Right Shoulder was complete and now we are on to the final stages.
I see a bounce occurring before heading lower.
On Monday - US holiday - we should expect lower volume and usually that means a sell off.
This view is on a weekly timeframe. I believe Tesla will wick below the neckline as it has in the past and then squeeze up and fill the GAP to $262.47 (1st target).
If the S&P500 shows strength mid October, prior to OPEX options expiry date, Tesla may keep trekking up the the second target which is in the $290 range before breaking the neckline.
Head and shoulder criteria:
1. Buying volume is diminishing and showed most strength on the left shoulder.
2. The head is much higher then the left shoulder.
3. The neckline fits the description of a proper head and shoulder pattern.
GOOODLUCK TRADERS!
Dark Pool Buy Zones and Sell Short Risk: LCIDDark Pool buy zones tend to provide strong support for stocks running down. If a stock violates the lows of such support, the rebound tends to come quickly, erasing any sell short profits.
This young EV auto manufacturing company is near its IPO price range, which is strong support. The retest of the lows of this bottoming action doesn't show much downside potential for a strong sell short.
There is risk that LCID may gap or run down but then reverse quickly and move back up. Whipsaw reversal candles near Dark Pool buy zones can cause big losses for short sellers at this level.
$LCID: Short it to $0...cash burning like there's no tomorrow.I'm shorting $LCID here, nice weekly setup, downside targets are $9-10, and up to $1-2 by December 2nd or sooner. I'm long puts to ride this move, since the stock is hard to borrow.
Worth a shot, you could also consider a portfolio where you long the relatively safe EV names vs shorts in EV startups that are burning cash and unprofitable, which will likely continue to pay off (long $TSLA, $F, $RIVN maybe, vs shorts in $NKLA, $LCID, $ARVL, $FFIE, $FSR, etc)
