Get started

Leadingindicators

Leading Indicators messyWith the current global situation where there are day by day developments, the Leading Indicator panel offers similar dichotomy... The JNK ETF is heading further down -> Bearish for equities. The IWM ETF is likely to push down in a somewhat limited fashion -> Bearish for equities The DJT ETF appears to be bouncing up -> Bullish for equities The VALUG looking for more downside -> Bearish for equities The TIPS ETF is spiking after a gap up, bullish for TIPS -> Inflation is exploding! Ususally bullish for equities, but in this instance, not likely. The TLT ETF is bottom feeding, and there is a MACD bullish divergence -> this suggests that the fear is not yet great enough for a flight to safety. Not yet. The VIX just broke out of a trend line and is pushing towards 45. The HG1! copper futures suggest an anomalous accumulation of copper, maybe forerunning the equities market upwards, but otherwise, if a general reflection of commodities rocketing in prices. Overall, Bearish bias on equities, with the chance of a quick rebound soon... but not before a spike down first. Totally tied to the Russian Ukraine events for now.
COMEX:HG1!
by Auguraltrader
Leading indicators reversed a reversalThe reversal observed previously appears to be washed out... JNK broke down previously as expected, and exceeded target. No rebound as previously expected, but instead a further push downwards followed. MACD in bear territory. IWM , DJT and VALUG all swent further down after breaking the support that bounced off earlier. MACD crossed and deep in bear territory. Turned out suspicion was well anticipated. TIPS failed a support, went back to test but pushed further down. Bearish. TLT is still not bullish, having pushed down further. Odd. VIX spiked very hard to get a higher high, but did not close at a higher high. Indicative of bearish markets but not clear as yet. /HG Copper futures are still held in a tight range and a breakout was immediately pulled back into range. MACD is in bullish territory.
NYSE:DMT
by Auguraltrader
Leading Indicators Reversal in ProgressInteresting... in the last couple of weeks, as the Leading Indicators signaled a retracement, it appears that it may be time for a technical bounce... JNK broke down as expected, and exceeded target. Last week's candle had a long tail recovery, and this current week is forming a rebound. MACD still in bear territory. IWM, DJT and VALUG all seemed to have retraced hard, and bounced off a support. MACD crossed and still in bear territory... may not be over. sus. TIPS failed a support and does not seem to be recovering, not bouncing for the matter. MACD appears to be recovering though. This one is rather odd, so I would just note and leave it for now. TLT is not bullish as one would expect it to be. In fact, it looks bearish, which is favorable (bullish) for the equity markets. VIX failed a solid break out and looks to be finding 16 again, signalling the interim volatilty is over and more bullish markets to prevail. /HG Copper futures are held in a tight range and appear to be recovering this week - if it can hold steady and break out. MACD is not yet bullish. Overall, the leading indicators are signalling an interim bottom. perhaps a larger than expected rebound should follow in the coming weeks...
AMEX:JNK
by Auguraltrader
1
Leading Indicators not bullish, slow deterioration observedReviewinig the Leading Inidcator Weekly panel... The JNK has a Sell signal, retraced and may break down to a lower low target, as previously expected. Not yet happening, but with a lower high, the bias is closer to the downside. The IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) also has a Sell signal and lower high. Waiting for a lower low confirmation with a break of support. The DJT is also similar. The Value Line failed to close the recent gap, suggesting downside bias. The TIPS clearly broke down through two support levels with a system Sell signal. So this one committed. All the above have MACD technically bearish bias. The TLT is oddly breaking down too. No comments about this at this point of time. Just unusual. The VIX is also unusually complacent, being <20. Technically seeing a possible spike some time in the next two weeks or so. I just added the Copper futures in the panel... according to Russell Napier, Copper futures is also one of the leading indicators we can use. For now, it is ranging and not committed to any trend. I hope we get some committed trend soon! Stay safe!
COMEX:HG1!
by Auguraltrader
Leading Indicators point to more the obviousLeading Indicator panel update: JNK - the topping pattern continues to play out for JNK, looking for a lower low, after the last lower high. IWM - The Russell 2000 ETF failed a breakout late last year, and is about to break down of a support given the bearish weekly candle. DJ Trans - a system Sell signal, and likely downside off the Dark Cloud Cover pattern. Value Line - Similar outlook to DJ Trans, with bearish candlestick that failed to close the gap. TIPS - Totally bearish Marubozu that broke two supports, with MACD bearish. This market forerunner is not boding decisively bearish. TLT - Instead of the expected bullishness in a bearish market, we see TLT being dumped with a gap down marubozu. VIX - still low, coiling to spike perhaps? ES1! - The S&P500 futures had a Bearish Engulfing last week... indicative of a follow through downside in the weeks to come. So... the leading indicators overall are bearish, and getting more so, with the S&P500 just became indicative of some real retracement potential in motion.
NYSE:DMT
by Auguraltrader
Leading Indicators are still BURNTQuick update from two weeks ago... Watching the White/Red lines JNK failed the reversal attempt to break above resistance; DJT closed just below support; Russell2000 closed last week at support; Value Line has not yet broken down; TIPS reaching support, may break but not yet; TLT just above the breakout support; VIX already gapped up pre-opening; and S&P futures ES1! following through downwards rather significantly pre-market open. Most MACD are aligned. Indicative downside bias...
AMEX:IWM
by Auguraltrader
1
Leading Indicators are BURNTAs forewarned, the Leading Indicators were previously pointing to a burn out, and now half of the leads are burnt. JNK and VALUG are bearish, as are TLT and VIX indicating bearishness. IWM, TIPS, and DJT have failed any bullish indication, skewing towards bearishness. The S&P500 futures are at support now... likely to break down, even for the beginning of a month. Overwhelmed by the "shock" of a new variant, perhaps it is time. IMHO, Omicron is a precursor... it should be mild, but its existence is indicative of the next wave. So, not to be ignored, and especially not to be forgotten. This is like Nature's forewarning of 2022. Stay safe!
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Auguraltrader
1
Money Flow Index MFI vs RSI Relative Strength Index (ETHEREUM)The MFI compares it with several different evaluations of money flows with volume in and out of the asset. Based on the theory that volume precedes price, the MFI acts as a more ambitious leading indicator than the RSI. As you can see by only using the example above, the MFI would have predicted substantial % profits for the wise trader. It was able to spot divergences with enough time to enter into a trade for significant wins. I highlighted the areas where there was no such luck spotting divergence with the RSI. The Money Flow Index (MFI) is a modified RSI indicator with an additional volume component. Put simply, think of the MFI as RSI that accounts for volume divergences. Note: training yourself to rely solely on price-action based strategies (universal support and resistant, candles etc.) will make you more successful in the long run. If you designed your indicator-based strategy to work in a trending market, it’s going to fail when markets begin to consolidate. But once again, the price action trader isn’t phased. It doesn’t matter if the market is trending or range bound, the psychological support and resistance levels will always tell the real story.
BYBIT:ETHUSD.P
by EsotericTrading
4
SPX & S&P 600 & RUSSEL 2000,which is a leading indicator "2.0"Indexes "Band of Brothers Edition 2.0 " Decoding the relation!!! (No copyrights here feel free to redistribute and spread the knowledge) In a nutshell, divergences between small caps and SP500 index has a kind of leading volatility relation " Heads up" kind of a signal !!! *** When you see minus " -.59 / -.62 " Divergence's reading between SPX & SLY You need to be out of the market period. *** When you see minus " -.48/ -.65 " on RUSSELL 2000'S INDEX you need to be out of the market period. *** SPX 600 has 10 signals Vs. 7 for RUSSEL. ( 3 more signals for SP600) ***SPX 600 has 4 lagging signals VS. 6 for RUSSEL 2000. ( 2 less lagging signals) *** SPX 600 has a Median of 36 days Vs. 57 for RUSSEL 2000. ( SP600 better Median) *** ETFs are slightly better than indexes in the sense that they are more "SENSETIVE. -----------------------------------------DATA------------------------------------------------------------------- Lagging Lagging # SINGNALS # SINGNALS MED.RUS Med.SPX russel spx 600 6 4 6 10 57 36.5 62 2 Percentage SPX'S DAYS FOR A PULLBACK RUSSELL 2000 SPX'S DAYS FOR A PULLBACK S&P SMALL CAP 600 61 36 10% Laggeing by 3 days 2 Days heads up 36 13 35% NO SIGNAL !!! 36 days before Covid 19 57 91 20% Double signals 62 days & 8 days 13 days 28 37 12% 61 days Triple signals: 91 days & 81 days & 38 days 48 35 3% Lagging by 1 day NO SIGNAL 91 28 3% Lagging by 9 days Lagging by 8 days 67 3% NO SIGNAL !!! 37 Days 61 5% Lagging by 7 days Lagging by 7 days 91 13% 36 Days 35 days 4%+10% 1 day + 57 days from double pullback NO SIGNAL 2% Lagging 1 day Lagging 1 day 11% 28 days 28 days 21% NO SIGNAL !!! 67 days 6% 48 days 61 days SLY STOPPED HERE 8% 91 days 91 days IJR USED HERE INSTEAD 31% Lagging during a crash 35 day lagging during a crash 35 day During a crsh NO SIGNAL During a crash During a crash
TVC:SPX
by samitrading
2
S&P500 - About time for a proper retracement??Am just looking at my panel of leading indicators, and besides the S&P500 ES1! daily chart looking a bit stalled with MACD turning down, the Russell2000, DJ Transports and Value Geometric Index are already leading down. Key levels to breakdown are in red circles. Some others like the High Yield Bonds and TIPS are still holding; while the Treasury Bonds are being snapped up (Risk Off mode) Volatility is low, waiting for a breakout. Looks like a storm is brewing...
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Auguraltrader
6
Bitcoin Tops and Bottoms Before the S&P500Is Bitcoin a good barometer for the broader market? The chart laid out above suggests this is a possibility - and indeed, it would make a lot of sense, considering how risk tends to peak prior to tactical and cyclical corrections in the stock market, and Bitcoin is broadly considered to be a risk asset. Note how the 2017 macro top in BTC foretold a top in the S&P just 5 weeks later, and in 2018 BTC bottomed just a few weeks before the S&P. Yet again, this relationship held during the 2020 COVID crash with BTC finding a bottom just two weeks before the S&P. Is the recent top formation in Bitcoin signaling potential weakness in the S&P500 that is yet to come? With breadth deteriorating across major indices, the almighty dollar (DXY) finding support and shaping up for a potential double bottom, and the least amount of bears on the AAII survey since Feb 2018, it's possible that the S&P is in for a deeper pullback, one that is well-deserved after such an incredible run from the COVID crash lows. One thing I'm looking for to see confirmation of a tactical top in the broader stock market is the Financials Sector (XLF). If we can't hold above that former major resistance, then we are likely in for a messy S&P over the summer. Remember, assets can correct in both price and time. We may just be in for some more sideways rather than an outright move down. If the S&P does begin to correct, it is safe to assume that Bitcoin may once again find a constructive bottom a few weeks before the S&P. I'll be on the lookout for all of the above and will keep this post updated. Till then, happy trading!
BNC:BLX
by CalmCapital
Weekly Leading Indicators Part IIIn the second part of my leading indicator set, namely, TIPS, TLT, VIX and USD futures /DX... TIPS is giving an early warning of a sharp dip. TLT has no indication of a build up in bond demand, but in fact has a gap down bond dumping. Do watch this gap closely, as a close of the gap might signal a reversal. VIX is not yes bullish despite a recent episodic spike. This may happen again, otherwise it is trending slightly and slowly lower. /DX appears to be forming a base of sorts, but dropping (bullish for equities) in the near term. Looking out for a higher low formation here... The secodn set of leading indicators is similarly not aligned. No clear signal, barring surprises, for a retrecement/pullback.
AMEX:TIP
by Auguraltrader
Early Warning SystemI've scripted my own early warning indicator. This system has provided very accurate warning signals the last few years as to where potential tops were forming. There are several occasions where it detected changes weeks or even months ahead of trend changes. Occasionally, it's a little too early at providing these signals. I can't reveal all my secrets but I was able to use data provided in TradingView that measures true investor sentiment and implied volatility. It also provides decent confirmational bullish/long signals, but it really depends on the type of market that we're in. Pre-2017, bearish signals were flattened and mostly ignored as the market rocketed higher.. I'll continue tracking this going forward and at least use it to assist my other forecasts - just another tool in my toolbox. My current view of the market is not good. If you follow my updates, you'll know that I've been warning people about this drop and zone of volatility. Check out my other updates on the markets as well as the vix. I think it's likely to continue the next couple of months. However, take a look at the indicator and how the avg. is slanting upwards (green circle). This could be signaling a bounce in the market...but will it be like Feb of this year where we made a higher high in the market before the death drop? I have some long exposure as a strangle for such an event, but have been net short since end of August. I don't need to explain to you how the market is currently retarded in light of the fundamental picture. I'm not calling for a great depression-like melt-down yet.. We could see a lot of volatility the next few months but it may be just another opportunity to go long the market. I'll be here to provide all of the most accurate data I can for you.
SP:SPX
by gghsusa
18