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xauusd analysis for 9/07/2024Last week our analyis on xauusd was perfect , we have predicted that if it cannot break the 2319-2312 zone then it will be bullish up to 2385.
Targets hit
2337 ✅✅✅
2347✅✅✅
2362✅✅✅
2385✅✅✅
our analyis for today:
it will be a ranging market from 2353 to 2371 , so buy the dip and sell the high.
▶️ if 2370 is broken then the market will fly upwards to 2385 2393 2404 2421 in extension
▶️ if 2353 support is broken then the market will fall towards
2342 2333 2321 2311 2306
.
we will make a detail analysis on fundamental technical and geopolitical scenarios.
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What Traders and Rock Climbers Have in Common!This post is inspired by @TradingView's rebranding in 2021 and the recent Leap competition.
At first glance, trading and rock climbing might seem worlds apart. One involves analyzing market trends, while the other requires physical strength and agility.
However, both pursuits share surprising similarities, highlighting unique skills and mindsets.
Here’s a look at what traders and rock climbers have in common.
⚙️ Risk Management: Both traders and rock climbers excel at managing risk. Traders use strategies like stop-loss orders and portfolio diversification to protect their capital.
Rock climbers assess risks, use safety equipment, and plan routes to avoid danger. Effective risk management is crucial in both fields to prevent catastrophic outcomes.
💡Mental Toughness: Traders face market fluctuations and must make quick decisions under pressure.
Rock climbers need to stay focused and composed while navigating challenging routes. Both activities demand mental resilience to overcome fear, maintain focus, and make calculated decisions.
📊 Strategic Planning: Success in trading and rock climbing involves strategic planning.
Traders develop strategies based on market analysis and economic indicators, while rock climbers meticulously plan their ascents, studying routes and assessing conditions. Strategic planning helps achieve goals efficiently in both areas.
⚖️ Adaptability: Adaptability is key for both traders and rock climbers. Market conditions can change rapidly, requiring traders to adjust their strategies.
Rock climbers face changing conditions like weather and rock quality, adapting their techniques to overcome obstacles and reach their objectives.
📜 Continuous Learning: Both traders and rock climbers are committed to continuous learning.
Traders stay updated on market trends and new tools, while rock climbers seek to improve their skills and stay informed about gear and safety practices. The pursuit of knowledge drives success in both fields.
🧘♂️ Focus on Execution: Execution is crucial in trading and rock climbing. Traders need precision, timing, and discipline to execute trades effectively.
Rock climbers must execute their moves with precision and confidence to progress safely. The ability to execute under pressure is essential for success in both activities.
🔄Passion and Commitment: Passion and commitment are integral to both trading and rock climbing.
Traders have a deep interest in financial markets, while rock climbers are driven by their love for the sport and adventure. This passion fuels their dedication, driving them to invest time and effort into their pursuits.
🧗♀️ Conclusion: Despite their apparent differences, trading and rock climbing share many commonalities.
Both require effective risk management, mental toughness, strategic planning, adaptability, continuous learning, focus on execution, and a deep-seated passion.
Recognizing these parallels can provide valuable insights and inspiration for those engaged in either pursuit, highlighting the universal qualities that drive success in diverse fields.
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Richard Nasr
The Famous Monkey Story in Every Markets!The Famous Monkey Story in Every Market!
Once upon a time, a rich man from the city arrived in a village. He announced to the villagers that he would buy monkeys for $100 each.
The villagers were thrilled, as there were hundreds of monkeys in a nearby forest. They caught the monkeys and brought them to the rich man, who paid $100 for every monkey they gave him. The villagers began making a living by capturing monkeys from the forest and selling them to the rich man.
Soon, the forest began to run out of monkeys that were easy to catch. Sensing this, the rich man offered $200 for each monkey. The villagers were ecstatic. They went back to the forest, set up traps, caught more monkeys, and brought them to the rich man.
A few days later, the rich man announced he would pay $300 per monkey. The villagers started climbing trees and risking their lives to catch monkeys and bring them to the rich man, who bought them all. Eventually, there were no monkeys left in the forest.
One day, the rich man announced he would like to buy more monkeys, this time for $800 each. The villagers couldn’t believe their luck. They desperately tried to catch more monkeys.
Meanwhile, the rich man said he had to return to the city for some business. Until he returned, his manager would handle transactions on his behalf.
Once the rich man left, the villagers were unhappy. They had been making quick and easy money from selling monkeys, but now the forest had no monkeys left.
This is when the manager of the rich man stepped in. He made an offer the villagers could not refuse. Pointing to all the caged monkeys, he told the villagers he would sell them for $400 each. They could sell them back to the rich man for $800 each when he returned.
The villagers were over the moon. Buy for $400 and sell for $800 in a few days—they had found the easiest way to double their money. They collected all their savings and even borrowed money. There were long queues, and within a few hours, almost all the monkeys were sold out.
Unfortunately, their happiness did not last long. The manager went missing the next day, and the rich man never returned. Many villagers kept the monkeys, hoping the rich man would come back. But soon, they lost hope and had to release the monkeys back into the forest, as feeding and caring for the noisy monkeys became extremely difficult.
This is exactly what happens when you buy low-quality companies in the stock market. There will be a low-priced stock that no one is interested in buying. A few rich men will suddenly start buying it. The stock price will rise because there are suddenly many buyers and very few sellers—a classic case of huge demand and no supply, like the monkeys in the forest.
The stock gets plenty of coverage on business channels and newspapers. These rich men will also use tricks like sending out bulk SMS messages, asking people to buy the shares for huge returns, and giving free tips. New and inexperienced investors, hoping to double or triple their investment, get lured in. Finally, the big players who bought the stock early when no one wanted it sell it back to inexperienced investors at high prices.
Don’t be greedy—there is no quick money in the stock market or in life. It takes time and effort to become wealthy, and there are no shortcuts.
Hit that like button if you like the story. Follow my profile for more content.
📈Mastering Stock Selection:A Journey to Long-Term Wealth💰Part1Interested in selecting high-quality stocks and growing your wealth through long-term investing? Today, I'll guide you through effective stock selection methods, including the top-bottom and bottom-top approaches. Remember, as Warren Buffett famously said, "The stock market is designed to transfer money from the active to the patient." 💼📈
Let's start with the top-bottom approach. First, you choose an economy, such as Indian, US, or UK. Next, select a sector within that economy, like Financial Services, IT, or Pharma. From there, narrow down to an industry within the sector, such as AI, Clean-technology, or Hardware. Finally, choose a company within the industry. Don't worry if it seems complex – I'll provide examples and guidance throughout. 💡🔍
Conversely, the bottom-top approach flips this order. We start by selecting a company, then move up to its industry, sector, and finally, the economy. 💼🔄
Let's put theory into practice with the top-bottom approach: (a random example)
1. Choose India as the economy.
2.Select the IT sector for its promising future.
3. Opt for AI as the industry due to its potential.
4. Select Infosys as a company.
Now, it's your turn! Share examples of top-bottom or bottom-top approaches in the comments for practice. 💬💡
In the upcoming discussions, we'll delve into the fundamentals of sector, industry, and company analysis. Don't worry—I'll explain everything from market cap and cash flow to return on equity (ROE). 📊✨
Target of likes (boosts): 25+ (if we achieve our target than I will make Part 2) 🎯🚀
Follow for more such ideas & learning content! 🔍
What do you see? #GBPAUDTake a look at the #GBPAUD chart. What do you see? As a trader, it's crucial to identify patterns and trends. My analysis shows potential for a bullish breakout after landing near the support level of 1.91750 . With potential targets at around 1.96500 . But what's your perspective? Let's talk.
Learn to Take Losses. Trading Psychology Basics
Hey traders,
In this post, we will discuss a typical psychological mistake that a lot of traders frequently make, facing a losing streak.
🤑 Analyzing different charts, we may spot a decent trading setup. Being 100% sure in our predictions, we open a trading position.
After some time, we are stopped out.
Instead of admitting that we were wrong, we are looking for a reason why it is not our fault: market manipulation, stop hunting, news.
Instead of reevaluation of our analysis, we start forcing our previous predictions.
🧠 We open a position again, being sure that it is a perfect moment for us to recover the loss.
And we are wrong one more time. What the hell is going on? Who to blame? Of course, that is not us.
These ugly hedge fund managers again sunk our trade.
😢 But we stay strong, we have a big trading account, so we decide to show this schmo who is a real pro here.
Consistency! That is the secret of success in trading.
So we open the third position again.
And... we screwed.
🤬 Eureka! The market reversed! It's time to open the position in the opposite direction. The trend has changed, and it's time to get on board and recover this losing streak.
We open a trade, however, it's too late already: while we were forcing our previous predictions a new impulse has already gone exhausted.
We s*ck...
That is a typical situation every struggling trader faced.
The psychological barrier to take the loss and admit the mistake makes many people leave this game.
The only way to proceed is to learn to take losses. Take losses and reevaluate your analysis.
"It's ok to be wrong. It's unforgivable to stay wrong!"
Why You Should Never Hold on to Your Positions Beyond a CertainGood day, traders.
I would like to take this opportunity to advise both new and experienced traders that holding onto your position indefinitely is not recommended. Based on percentage calculations, the return required to recover to break even increases at a considerably faster pace as losses grow in size due to compound interest. After a loss of 10%, a gain of 11% is needed to make up for it. When the loss is 20%, it takes a 25% gain to return to break even. To recover from a 50% loss, a 100% gain is required, and to reach the initial investment value after an 80% loss, a 400% gain is necessary.
Investors who experience a bear market must understand that it will take some time to recover, but compounding returns will aid in the process. Consider a bear market where the value drops by 30% and the stock portfolio is only worth 70% of what it was. Suppose the portfolio increases by 10% to reach 77%. The subsequent 10% gains bring it to 84.7%. After two further years of 10% gains, the portfolio reaches its pre-drop value of 102.5%. Consequently, a 30% decline requires a 42% recovery, but a four-year compounding rate of 10% returns the account to profitability.
I will be doing a second part of this post on the idea of "DOLLAR COST AVERAGING" (DCA).
The math behind stock market losses clearly demonstrates the need for investors to take precautions against significant losses, as depicted in the graphic above. Stop-loss orders to sell stocks or cryptocurrencies that are mental or limit-based exist for a reason. If the market is headed towards a bear market, it will start to pay off once a particular loss threshold is reached. Investors occasionally struggle to sell stocks they enjoy at a loss, but if they can repurchase the stock or cryptocurrency at a lesser cost, they will like it.
Never stop learning! I would also appreciate hearing your thoughts and opinions on the topic in the comment section.
Thank you.
Trading Sessions in Forex | Free Market Sessions Indicator
Hey traders,
In this post, we will discuss trading sessions in Forex .
Let's start with the definition:
Trading session is daytime trading hours in a certain location.
The opening and closing hours match with business hours.
For that reason, trading hours are varying in different countries because of contrasting timezones.
❗️Please, note that different markets may have different trading hours.
Also, some markets have pre-market and after-hours trading sessions.
In this post, we are discussing only forex trading hours.
The forex market opens on Sunday at 21:00 GMT
and closes on Friday at 21:00 pm GMT.
There are 4 main trading sessions in Forex:
🇦🇺 Australian (Sydney) Session Opens at 21:00 GMT and closes at 06:00 GMT
🇯🇵 Asian (Tokyo) Session Opens at 12:00 GMT and closes at 9:00 GMT.
🇬🇧 UK (London) Session Opens at 7:00 GMT and closes at 16:00 GMT.
🇺🇸 US (New York) Session Opens at 12:00 GMT and closes at 21:00 GMT.
Asian trading session is usually categorized by low trading volumes
while UK and US sessions are categorized by high trading volumes.
Personally, I trade the entire UK session and US opening and usually skip Australian and Asian sessions.
There is a free technical indicator on TradingView that allows to underline trading sessions on a price chart. It is called "Market Sessions".
Being added, it displays the market trading sessions.
What trading sessions do you trade?
Range Bar Chart, Line Chart & Candlestick Chart - Everything You
Hey traders,
In this post, we will discuss 3 most popular types of charts.
We will discuss the advantages and disadvantages of each one, and you will decide what type is the most appropriate for you.
📈Line Chart.
Line chart is the most common chart applied by analysts. Reading financial articles in different news outlets, I noticed that most of the time the authors apply line chart for the data representation.
On a price chart, the only parameter that the one can set is a time period.
Time period will define a time of a security closing price. The security closing prices overtime will serve as data points.
These points will be connected with a continuous line.
Line charts are applied for displaying an asset's price history, reducing the noise from less volatile times.
Being simplistic, they can provide a general picture and market sentiment. However, they are considered to be insufficient for pattern recognition and in depth analysis.
Above, a line chart is applied for analysis of a long-term trend on Gold.
📏Range Bar Chart.
In contrast to a line chart, a range bar chart does not consider time horizon. The only parameter that the one can set is a price range.
By the range, I mean a price interval where the price moves. A new bar will be formed only once the prices passes the desired range.
Such a chart allows to completely ignore time variable, focusing only on price movement and hence reducing the market noise.
The chart will plot new bars only when the market is volatile, and it will stagnate while the market is weak and consolidating.
Accurately setting a desired price range, one can get multiple insights analyzing a range bar chart.
In the example above, one range bar represents 10 pips price range on EURUSD.
🕯Candlestick Chart.
The most popular chart among technicians and my personal favorite.
ith just one single parameter - time period, the chart plots candlesticks.
Each candlestick is formed as a desired time period passes.
It contains an information about the opening price level, closing price, high and low of a selected time period.
Candlestick chart is applied for pattern recognition and in-depth analysis. Its study unveils the behavior of the market participants and their actions at a desired time period.
Each candle stick represents a price action within 4 hours on AUDUSD chart above. (time frame is 4H)
Of course, each chart has its own pluses and minuses. Choosing its type, you should know exactly what information do you want to derive from the chart.
What chart type do you prefer?
TSLA - trade ideaBeen a while since I posted an idea here, it doesnt matter what Ideas I post, it is more important to learn trade psychology and understand your risk reward, you can enter 1,000 trades with bad risk reward and never win. Or you can step into the arena, get beaten up enough times to finally snap out of it and find your way. Why risk it to make the biscuit?!
TESLA Support resistance trades, no trader has the golden ticket, find your way!
Funded 1.7m with APEX and TakeProfit trader, after blood sweat and tears, it may not be much to many but to me its lifechanging. Lets get it!!!!
Dissecting SPY Price trends With Fibonacci Price TheoryHave you ever wanted to learn the one technique you can use on any chart, any interval, or any technical or price set up to help you become a better trader?
Let me show you the basics of Fibonacci Price Theory and how to use it.
Price is always seeking new highs or new lows - ALWAYS.
You'll hear others talking about price filling voids or moving through accumulation/distribution phases - which is all true. Price moves through these support/resistance levels or quickly through price voids to reach new highs or lows. This is all part of Fibonacci Price Theory.
When you learn to understand various intervals using this technique (Weekly, Daily, 30 Min, or others), you'll quickly be able to identify short-term, long-term, and intra-day trends like a pro.
It is not about catching every trend reversal/setup. This technique is about teaching you to stay on the right side of trend and to target the Sweet Spot in the middle of breakaway/breakdown trends.
Follow my research. Learn how I can help you become a better trader.
🥶 FACT: Most traders quit year one. Hmm, but why? 🤔You all heard the statistic, "gambling is more profitable than trading - 13 out of 100 gamblers leave the casino with gains compared to 1 out of 100 traders". Yeah yeah. Nice story. Now tell us the real story. The market is not a casino. Don't compare. What about the thousands of traders making consistent gains?
It's a FACT that most traders quit their trading "hobby" or "career" within their first year of trading.
But what's ALSO a FACT is most traders:
Don't take profits when they see them (keep holding for more).
Go too heavy on a single trade.
Go all in on a single trade.
HODL for glory, even when they're super green on a trade.
Are too bullish/ bearish and turn a blind eye to the other bias.
Are over-speculating all the time (i.e. " NASDAQ:AMD 120 tomorrow. All in calls"
Trade without a chart.
Have no risk management.
Don't follow their own rules.
Have no trading strategy.
One cannot state the first "fact" without stating the other; the real reason. Otherwise, that's a shallow statistic. That's like looking at a 15 min chart and not realizing that each candle is constructed of 1,000+ mini candles.
Here's a 15 min NASDAQ:AMZN chart:
Here's the same chart in 15 second candles:
Zooming in to the chart gives you a clearer picture. Digging deep into the "quitting" traders' psychology, you'll get the answer. Also, I wouldn't say they quit. It's possible that the energy they were putting in wasn't paying off, and they didn't want to waste their time any further.
Treat your trading like a job. Be strict. You see quick +20% profit? Take it. But you believe it's going higher? Still take it. Find another trade. Baby gains add up!
Most traders who got burned on NYSE:AMC NYSE:GME , kept HODLing.
This is coming from someone who bought NYSE:AMC at $2.13 pre-split in 2021 and sold around $25 and $70:
ACHIEVING SUPER GAINS WILL RUIN YOUR MENTALITY!
You will start treating the market like a casino.
You will stop appreciating the smaller 20 to 40% gainers that you can do once per day or week.
You will see yourself starting to go heavy because you "believe" that "this is the next banger".
To avoid all this headache, build a strategy slowly over time, use the right tools to plan your trade, find a community to trade with, use proven strategies (i.e. support/ res, supply/ demand, patterns), go light in your first 1,000 trades, and so on. Happy to help if you have any questions below.
Follow for more insight and for live trade swing & day-trade ideas! Good luck trading! Trade safe and don't go all in.
Baby gains add up.
Breakout Soon ->Trend
Its in a strong uptrend for now, and its at a very crucial zone to break ascending triangle pattern. Get ready for some gains here.
Chart Pattern
From 15th August 2023 we are seeing its been trading in a tight range, and now its ready to explode most likely to the upside from here. I am targeting 3.10 zone in mid to short term.
Hit like & follow guys ;)
Fixed Range Volume Profile, How do I use it?I can say that Fixed Range Volume Profile is strong tool to determine targets and stop loss, POC point of control as per my research represent a central price and bar close price is turning around it, so when you assign take profit and stop loss as per it, you reduce the risk and have a plan B to manage your trade.
as you see in above chart for BTCUSD, we have trend line on daily time frame, I cut the chart to 3 successive zones representing 3 cycle, 1 cycle is from the trend to trend and applied "Fixed Range Volume Profile" on all 3 ranges/cycles, last cycle has not finished yet, and I show POC1, POC2 and POC3 prices.
I consider this line as central price for a range and we can see how price keep moving above and down POC1 & POC2 prices.
for the last range/cycle (not completed yet because it has not reach the uptrend line yet, we see POC3 = $30,200 and the current price $29,590 so price is under POC3 and we can guess it is going to trend at approximately $27,750, this is 1st hint.
2nd hint is to take "Fixed Range Volume Profile" for the all uptrend, did you notice it? I think the price is going to POC(all range) = $28,300 (support)
Now we came to the best part of our subject, the what if question and how to set up a plan?:
what is stop loss?
we need a 1H bar close above POC3= $30,200+100= $30,300 (resistant) and we buy target $31,380 (you should know why!) and for stop loss, we need close price 1H again down $30,200
what is take profit?
we can set $28,300 for safe and $27,750 if you want to risk a little bit, this is first target, but what if bar 4h close down POC= $28,300? here we can set a 2nd take profit at $26,400 (you should know why!)
this is what I wanted to share with you and I will be glad to answer your questions.
I did go short for BTCUSD this morning, enter price $29,165 and I set a take profit at $29,322 because I am working on 15 min timeframe.
ES - S&P Example Of Multiple Reactions Off Of A ActionSo, here comes a little lessen, that could have a huge impact on your Trading.
Many of you know that in my arsenal of tools I use the Medianline/Pitchfork tool very often. It's my best tool to project the path of price, find extremes and centers in the markets.
One day, I was stepping back in the world of Action/Reaction and started to research on the wisdom of Dr. Allan Andrews and Babson. I modified their Action/Reaction model in a new way.
Here's what I have found so far:
1. Identify the correct "last" Pivot (Anker 1).
2. Identify the last Low (Anker 3).
3. Wait, until Anker Pivot 1 is broken, and the market did a pullback (Anker Pivot 2).
If you're at point 3., this means that price already shoot up again above the Anker Pivot 1, and preferable even higher as the last Pivot above Anker Pivot 1.
From now on, you can observe, how price is behaving at the Reaction lines (Yellow R's).
How to trade it, use it?
Well, that's upon yourself.
Or, you may wait for a course I'm maybe planning.
But I highly recommend you study it and make your hands dirty §8-)
Happy Trading
A BASIC ENTRYThis right here is my favorite type of entry where you can basically see a nice bottom and re-test from the pullback before so in my eyes coming back down to this price too fill in the gaps is a MUST PAY ATTENTION type of trade... too me this is a continuation of price action. NOW! don't just get to your desired price and throw a market order in just because it's there? Wait for some big volume to come through, wait for the next pullback... Getting too the price is one thing... but knowing what to do next is the ball game.
I mean if I can get the price too come down far enough that i can set my SL behind a bunch of big 4HR, 1D bottoms and scale down to a lower TF too catch a clean leveraged trade. That's a strategy in itself... To add a focus on discipline, mindset, psychology, family, friends, work! an all-round lifestyle as a SOLDIER! you come to realize that trading is such a very small part of the game. Nail life first... then that simple strategy might just work.
Arb still not done dumping, next measured moves in play 1.046I have done my best to try and educate and help those who are willing to listen, I know nothing is guaranteed in trading but sometimes the bigger picture does wonders for a game plan. Never the less, following measured moves still incoming for Arb, 1.0468 then down to a1.01 hopefully no one is holding on to any long positions its about to get ugly... happy trading folks
10 Things I Wish I Knew When Getting Started With TradingHere are ten key points I wish I knew 11 years ago
1. Position Sizing: Trade with suitable position sizes to minimize the emotional impact on decision-making. Ensure your trades are neither too small nor too large, balancing the potential for profit and the ability to make rational decisions.
2. Avoid FOMO: Don't trade based on the fear of missing out. Make informed decisions by analyzing the market and potential trades, rather than being swayed by others' excitement or panic.
3. When to Exit a Trade: Focus on trading based on technical analysis, not your profit and loss. Exit a trade when the conditions you entered the trade no longer apply. Consider using mental stops over hard stops, but only if you have enough experience.
4. Journal: Keep a detailed record of your trades to analyze and improve your performance. Track your wins, losses, and the specific conditions of each trade to identify areas that require improvement.
5. Buy High, Sell Higher: Embrace the concept of buying into strong trends for greater success. While "buy low, sell high" is a common mantra, buying into a growing trend can be a more effective strategy.
6. Different Types of Trades: Understand and become comfortable with various trade types, such as scalping, momentum trading, technical-based trades, and options trading. Each type requires different strategies and scanning techniques.
7. Resources: Choose educational resources wisely. Avoid get-rich-quick schemes and focus on informative materials that teach essential concepts like candlesticks, indicators, options, and scanner settings. Look for resources that acknowledge the difficulty of trading and offer well-rounded, sustainable strategies.
8. Stop Predicting Tops and Bottoms: Focus on following the charts and resist the urge to predict tops and bottoms. Counter-trend trading is a common reason new traders lose money.
9. You Are Not an Economist: Trade based on current market conditions, not long-term predictions. Avoid developing a market bias that could negatively impact your trades, even your day trades.
10. Don't Trade What You Don't Know: Gain sufficient knowledge before trading a particular instrument. Jumping into a trade without understanding the underlying mechanisms can lead to costly mistakes. Educate yourself before diving into new trading instruments.
Yours,
SPX500 | Short IdeaI see a significant pattern setting up for more downside on this index.
- engulfing candle patterns at major daily 200 EMAs
- PA below the 200 EMA on the daily
- a flag (bearish) pattern has been completed
- layering on the fundamentals of gold/silver and even bitcoin being purchased over more "risky" stocks - especially this banking fiasco.
2.3 : 1
1% risk - Happy Trading!