EXPECTANCY: The Golden Key StatisticWhat is Expectancy?
Expectancy is the one of the most important statistics in trading. Expectancy is how much you expect to make per trade. If you have an expectancy of 0.3 that means you make 30% of your average risk per trade. If you risk $1000 per trade, then you would receive $300 on average for EVERY time you took a trade.
The baseline for a worthwhile & profitable strategy for most traders is an expectancy of 0.25 or higher. Anything more than 0.5 is outstanding.
How do you calculate expectancy?
A few different ways:
(gross profit/# of trades)/Avg. Risk
or
((Win%*Avg. Win)-(1-Win%*Avg. Loss))/Avg. Risk
The table on the chart breaks down the required Win% and Profit/Loss ratio needed for an expectancy greater than 0.25. As you can see there are multiple ways to build a profitable strategy.
What does Expectancy tell you?
Expectancy is a crucial stat for traders because it lets them know if their strategy is valuable. The only way to know your expectancy is to track your trades! Tracking your trades is an essential part of the job as a trader yet many fail to do so. It can be done for free with some simple spreadsheet formulas and a bit of time. Track your trades, review your stats, improves your trades. Rinse & repeat.
Thanks for reading, follow @Jlaing for more educational post about Money Management, Trading Stats, and more. I also stream a stock day trading chat room every morning at 9:15 EST right here on TradingView, come check it out and say what's up.
Learning
BTC - Practical Descending Triangle Example! 🖋Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
I find BTC chart interesting as it is forming a textbook Descending Triangle, so I thought it would be a practical example to highlight it now.
📌 First, let's start with the definition of a Descending Triangle:
🗒 What is a Descending Triangle?
A descending triangle is a bearish chart pattern used in technical analysis that is created by drawing one trend line that connects a series of lower highs and a second horizontal trend line that connects a series of equal lows.
📉 Traditionally, a regular descending triangle pattern is considered to be a bearish chart pattern.
However, in my opinion, even thought a bearish continuation is more probable, all triangles are bilateral patterns. Means they can be broken either side.
📌 How to trade a Descending Triangle pattern?
🗒 Remember: A pattern would be an idea, until activated.
In our case, for the descending triangle pattern to get activated, we need an H4 candle close below the lower bound. (around 15500 in red)
In parallel, for the bulls to kick in, and invalidate the bearish scenario, we need an H4 candle close above the upper bound. (around 17100 in blue)
📌 Trade / Risk Management:
🗒 When the pattern is activated, you can enter immediately after the candle closes, or wait for it to retest the trendline first.
Regarding the stop loss, it goes above/below the last high/low from the other side.
Regarding the take profit, the project would be the biggest distance between the highs and lows inside the triangle.
Hope you find this post useful. Let me know if you have any questions.
Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
Learn How to Apply Multiple Time Frame Analysis
Hey traders,
In this article, we will discuss Multiple Time Frame Analysis.
I will teach you how to apply different time frames and will share with you some useful tips.
Firstly, let's briefly define the classification of time frames that we will discuss:
There are 3 main categories of time frames:
1️⃣Higher time frames
2️⃣Trading time frames
3️⃣Lower time frames
1️⃣Higher time frames are used for identification of the market trend and global picture. Weekly and daily time frames belong to this category.
The analysis of these time frames is the most important.
On these time frames, we make predictions and forecast the future direction of the market with trend analysis and we identify the levels, the areas from where we will trade our predictions with structure analysis.
2️⃣Trading time frames are the time frames where the positions are opened. The analysis of these time frames initiates only after the market reaches the underlined trading levels, the areas on higher time frames.
My trading time frames are 4h/1h. There I am looking for a confirmation of the strength of the structures that I spotted on higher time frames. There are multiple ways to confirm that. My confirmations are the reversal price action patterns.
Once the confirmation is spotted, the position is opened.
3️⃣Lower time frames are 30/15 minutes charts. Even though these time frames are NOT applied for trading, occasionally they provide some extra clues. Also, these time frames can be applied by riskier traders for opening trading positions before the confirmation is spotted on trading time frames.
Learn to apply these 3 categories of time frames in a combination. Start your analysis with the highest time frame and steadily go lower, identifying more and more clues.
You will be impressed how efficient that strategy is.
❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section.
Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
The risk-to-reward ratio is one of the most important thingsHi guys, This is @CRYPTOMOJO_TA One of the most active trading view authors and fastest-growing communities.
Consider following me for the latest updates and Long /Short calls on almost every exchange.
I post short mid and long-term trade setups too.
DEFINITION
The risk/reward ratio, sometimes known as the R/R ratio, is a measure that compares the potential profit of a trade to its potential loss. It is calculated by dividing the difference between the entry point of a trade and the stop-loss order (the risk) by the difference between the profit target and the entry point (the reward).
Limiting Risk and Stop Losses
Unless you're an inexperienced stock investor, you would never let that $500 go all the way to zero. Your actual risk isn't the entire $500.
Every good investor has a stop-loss or a price on the downside that limits their risk. If you set a $29 sell limit price as the upside, maybe you set $20 as the maximum downside. Once your stop-loss order reaches $20, you sell it and look for the next opportunity.
Because we limited our downside, we can now change our numbers a bit. Your new profit stays the same at $80, but your risk is now only $100 ($5 maximum loss multiplied by the 20 shares that you own), or 80/100 = 0.8:1. This is still not ideal.
What if we raised our stop-loss price to $23, risking only $2 per share or $40 loss in total? Remember, 80/40 is 2:1, which is acceptable. Some investors won't commit their money to any investment that isn't at least 4:1, but 2:1 is considered the minimum by most. Of course, you have to decide for yourself what the acceptable ratio is for you.
Notice that to achieve the risk/reward profile of 2:1, we didn't change the top number. When you did your research and concluded that the maximum upside was $29, that was based on technical analysis and fundamental research. If we were to change the top number, in order to achieve an acceptable risk/reward, we're now relying on hope instead of good research.
The risk-to-reward ratio is one of the most important things that traders and investors should watch out for before placing a trade. Once you’ve calculated the R/R ratio for a trade, you can place your stop-loss order to limit the losses. Similarly, you can also place the book profit order to exit the position at your preferred price.
If you are new to stock trading, then a 1:2 R/R ratio should be ideal. You can start experimenting after gaining some experience. But as stock trading is risky, do your own research before you start investing. You can also consult an investment advisor if your goal is to build a long-term stock portfolio.
Trade with care.
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Cognitive Biases in Forex Trading
This article explores the cognitive biases in forex trading. The biases discussed in this article can play a significant role in any form of speculative trading and investing, not just forex trading.
A cognitive bias is a systematic flaw in how we think. Cognitive biases are present in every decision we face.
Anchoring Bias.
People rely too much on reference points from
the past when making a decision for the future -
they are "anchored" to the past.
Loss Aversion.
This is when people go to great lengths to avoid
losses because the pain of loss is twice as
impactful as the pleasure received from a win.
Confirmation Bias.
The confirmation trap is when traders seek
out information that validates their opinions
and ignore any theories that invalidate them.
Superiority Trap.
Many traders in the past have lost large sums
of money simply because they have fallen prey to
the mentality of overconfidence.
Herding.
Many traders in the past have lost large sums
of money simply because they have fallen prey to
the mentality of overconfidence.
Pay close attention to your decision making to spot the fallacies.
What do you want to learn in the next post?
♻️UNDERSTANDING THE BULLISH ENGULFING CANDLE PATTERN♻️
☑️WHAT IS A BULLISH ENGULFING CANDLE?
The bullish engulfing candle appears at the bottom of a downtrend and indicates a surge in buying pressure. The bullish engulfing pattern often triggers a reversal in trend as more buyers enter the market to drive prices up further. The pattern involves two candles with the second candle completely engulfing the body of the previous red candle.
☑️HOW TO SPOT A BULLISH ENGULFING PATTERN AND WHAT DOES IT MEAN?
▪️Characteristics of a bullish engulfing pattern:
• Strong green candle that ‘engulfs’ the prior red candle body (disregard the wicks)
• Occurs at the bottom of a downward trend
• Stronger signals are provided when the red candle is a doji, or when subsequent candles close above the high of the bullish candle.
▪️What does it tell traders?
• Trend reversal to the upside (bullish reversal)
• Selling pressure losing momentum at this key level.
▪️Advantages of trading with the bullish engulfing candle:
• Easy to identify
• Attractive entry levels can be obtained after receiving confirmation of the bullish reversal.
☑️KNOW THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A BULLISH AND A BEARISH ENGULFING PATTERN
Engulfing patterns can be bullish and bearish. The bearish engulfing pattern is essentially the opposite of the bullish engulfing pattern discussed above. Instead of appearing in a downtrend, it appears at the top of an uptrend and presents traders with a signal to go short. It is characterized by a green candle being engulfed by a larger red candle.
☑️CONCLUSION
A Bullish Engulfing Candle becomes an excellent tool for the trader, once he masters how to use it properly!
✅Thank you for reading! Please, like and comment if you liked the article☺️
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Do That BEFORE You Start REAL ACCOUNT Trading
Here is the list of thing that you should learn in advance before you start trading on a real account.
1) Open a demo (practice) account and learn to execute trades without making errors
2) Study the methods of great traders and financial minds throughout history - Jesse Livermore, W D Gann, Charles Dow/Dow theory, Paul Tudor Jones,Richard Wyckoff.
Learn their methods and employ them. Learn their mistakes and avoid them.
3) Focus on learning, not winning. Forget about money and profits. Think about developing a winning strategy and a winning trading mindset. Always be open-minded. Observe. Be flexible.
4) I recommend reading the following books. These books will help you to start to think like a trader and realize what you are getting yourself into:
a) "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator" by Edwin Lefevre
b) "Art of War" by Sun Tzu (Not a trading book but an old book on rules of war and how to protect yourself from being outsmarted and defeated by your enemies)
c) "The Trading Methodologies of W.D. Gann" by Hima Reddy
d) "Time Compression Trading: Exploiting Multiple Time Frames in Zero Sum Markets" by Jason Alan Jankovsky
e) "Trading in the Zone: Master the Market with Confidence, Discipline and a Winning Attitude" by Mark Douglas
5) Watch YouTube videos. Absorb all the info you can as the more you know, the more the pieces of the puzzle fit together later on. You can learn the basics of trading on your own and then when you are ready to take your trading to the next level.
To win the game, you need to develop your thinking and how you participate in the game. You are in a market trading against professional traders. The beginning traders in the market are not your competition-they are incidental. You need to trade with the professional traders who run the market.
I wish you luck on a battle field!
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What is really up with the Funded Programs?Before we go any further, I want to state that
1) This post is NOT PROMOTING ANY prop firms/funded trader programs,
2) I do not hate or have anything against any prop firms/funded trader programs, I am just sharing my understanding from what I have read and experienced, and
3) Info here is not complete. If you choose to embark on any programs, please make sure you do your own due diligence.
Traditional Prop Firm
Typically refers to a group of traders that focus on buying and selling financial assets with the firm’s capital. The trader uses that firm's money to trade and in exchange receives a small wage and a large percentage of the profits. In practice, proprietary trading firms provide the capital, proprietary technology, training, coaching, and mentoring for you to become an elite trader.
Funded Programs
There has been an ever-increasing number of funded trader programs, marketing to retail traders about the huge profit-sharing potential (75-90%) when they become "a funded trader." And all that is required is paying for and passing an evaluation/testing period. You would pay anywhere from $84 to $184 for a $10,000 account and it could go as high as you want (almost)
A trader in the evaluation/testing period would have
- Profit target of 8-10% in phase 1 (typically 30 days)
- Profit target of 5% in phase 2 (typically 60 days)
- Daily drawdown of no more than 5%
- Overall drawdown of no more than 10-12%
From my experience coaching retail traders, newbie or average trader has an account size of no more than $10,000. This makes the idea of being funded to trade become really attractive, limiting the downside while almost maximizing the potential. However, there has also been a lot of negativity about these funded programs;
- the evaluation and actual trading accounts are demo accounts
- the company makes more money from traders failing than from profitable traders
- some traders claim to have never received their payouts
Are funded programs scams?
Again, I have not evaluated ALL funded programs to say this, but probably not. (Do your own due diligence!)
Companies running funded programs are likely just deploying a good business model, addressing a pain that most retail traders have (funding their account) and filling that gap.
Should you jump into a funded program?
There is a lot more information (more than discussed above) that needs to be considered before you jump in. A brief checklist:
1) Do you have a profitable trading strategy to deploy? ( if you don't have a profitable strategy, keep reading, learning & testing )
2) Have you used it for at least a year? ( avoid using funded programs as a testing ground, it can get costly! do it on a demo or even a $1,000 account first )
3) Does the strategy meet the max drawdown conditions? ( 5% a day, 10% total? For example, a martingale strategy is not likely to work )
4) How likely are you to bend your trading rules? ( rules set by the programs are set in stone, a breach even by the slightest and you would have failed )
5) Is it the right time to start? ( are markets in consolidation, on a holiday period, or super volatile with no clear trend )
Remember that the average annualized return of the S&P500 is 11.88% (1957 to 2021). Trying to make 8-10% in 30 days and then 5% in 60 days just to pass, tends to put the trader under a lot of stress. How do you perform under significant pressure?
What are your views of the funded programs? Share it with me in the comments
I have never thought much about the funded programs. But recently have been considering giving it a shot and live-streaming the trading process daily. Would you join me on the stream?
Stay tuned, it might just happen.
btcusdtperpHello dear traders
As you can see, over the years and with the increase in the open volume of cryptocurrencies in the monthly period, we reach this chart. Tired in the long run
But know this point that this point of view is only technical and this post is educational
But it doesn't work monthly and on Bitcoin
1. Bitcoin is limited, and for example, if it were dollars or gold, it would be true to some extent because it can be said that they are almost unlimited
2. The volume of transactions has increased compared to the previous years, but the price has grown more than the volume of imported coins due to the limitation of circulating coins, which has created an extra weight or a price bubble, and this weight in the action is also called process fatigue. Is known
3. For the same reason, the halving and the 4-year time period and the number two option in Bitcoin, we have less rest, and the global economy should also be taken into account, which helps in this matter.
Gambler's Vision VS Pro Trader's Vision 👁
Hey traders,
In this article, we will discuss the perception of trading by individuals.
We will compare the vision of a professional trader and a beginner.
The fact is, that most of the people perceive trading performance incorrectly. There is a common fallacy among them that win rate is the only true indicator of the efficiency of a trading strategy.
Moreover, newbies are searching for a strategy producing close to 100% accuracy.
Such a mindset determines their expectations.
Especially it feels, when I share a wrong forecast in my channel.
It immediately triggers resentment and negative reactions.
Talking to these people personally and asking them about the reasons of their indignation, the common answer is: "If you are a pro, you can not be wrong".
The truth is that the reality is absolutely different. Opening any position or making a forecast, a pro trader always realizes that there is no guarantee that the market will act as predicted. Pro trader admits that he deals with probabilities, and he is ready to take losses. He realizes that he may have negative trading days, even weeks and months, but at the end of the day his overall performance will be positive.
Remember, that your success in trading is determined by your expectations and perception. Admit the reality of trading, set correct goals, and you will take losses more easily.
I wish you luck and courage on a battlefield.
❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section.
Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
10 Important Tips & Tricks To Improve Trading Skills
In this article, we will discuss ten important tips and tricks that can enable you to improve your trading skills.
A trading plan is a must
Once you have tested the plan developed and it shows good results, that is the time to go full throttle investing in the stock market.
Do not lose confidence
Be a learner
Be a learner and practice trading as a new entrant, even if it has been decades of trading for you. Look at trading as a classroom with much to offer and to be taken one thing at a time.
Don't fall for rumours
Treat it like a Business
It is serious business here and requires precision, patience, commitment, in-depth analysis and cold-blooded research.
A stop-loss is essential
Have technology at your side
Trader must be up-to-date on the happenings in the trading world and use technology to know about stock movements, new products, new trading schemes and pre-empt market movements.
Defend your trading capital
Take risks that you can afford
It enables you to plan well and not overexpose yourself to the risks in share market trading.
Be open to new strategies
Never in trading should there be a time that you follow a trading plan that is outdated or rigid to change.
What do you want to learn in the next post?
CHOOSE YOUR STYLE💹
🔘What is Scalping?
Scalping is considered the most profitable but, at the same time, the most challenging trading strategy in any type of market. Alternatively, scalping is also known as high-frequency intraday trading because a large number of deals and the high speed of making them allow a scalper to earn on almost any market movement due to small but frequent profits.
Traders who use scalping tactics, often called scalpers, profit by buying at low prices and selling at high prices. It's as simple as that. They make money on even the smallest divergence in the current price of an asset, so even the slightest fluctuations in the price of financial assets are seen as opportunities to make a profit.
However, the downside of such an "easy" earning process is potentially minimal profit from a single trade. That is why scalpers often spend 24 hours at the monitor: many small transactions are made in parallel with very short holding periods (often in just a few minutes) to make more or less a weighty profit.
Scalpers act quickly and constantly watch the intraday trading indicators. They take short positions in one trade and long positions in the next, looking for frequent, albeit tiny, chances. Basically, scalpers make money using the difference in the buy and sell price. These windows of opportunity are more common than massive price changes since even relatively calm markets are subject to regular fluctuations.
Most traders using the scalping technique use charts with a time frame of one minute. Scalpers benefit from charts that show even the smallest price "pips."
🔘What is Day Trading?
As the name suggests, day trading involves making multiple trades in a single day. Day traders rely heavily on technical analysis and sophisticated charting systems to detect trading patterns and identify strategic enter and exit opportunities.
The day trader's objective is to make a living by making small profits on numerous trades and capping losses on unprofitable trades. Day traders typically do not keep any positions or own any securities overnight. Know for its fast pace and adrenaline-inducing approach, not all investors are suited for this approach to financial markets. However, day trading is arguable more than the pursue of profits: it is a lifestyle of pitting your wits against the market and living in a thrilling, high-risk environment.
🔘What is Swing Trading?
So, what is swing trading? In the most general terms, it is a style of trading in the financial markets that focuses on identifying the cyclical nature of price movements. This approach assumes that each trend consists of several up and down phases. Swing traders try to take advantage of these short-term impulses and corrections. Traders working with this strategy tend to keep positions open for several days to take advantage of large market trends.
Most swing traders follow the direction of the market trend. Their actions are dynamic. They may open long positions during an uptrend and short positions when a downtrend begins. When one bets on market trends, they often open a position and hold it for days or weeks (even months), depending on the opportunity presented by the trend. Like scalpers, swing traders capitalize on market volatility because it creates opportunities for them.
In swing trading, there is no need to make decisions in real-time or quickly. That's why this method is popular with part-time traders; they can use their lunch hour to check the markets, for example. But an effective swing trading strategy requires patience, as the timing of holding an asset can fluctuate considerably. Therefore, it is not the best choice for people who are nervous in stressful situations.
🔘What is Investing?
Investing involves putting money into a financial asset (stocks, bonds, mutual or exchange-traded fund, etc). that you expect will rise in value over time. Investors generally have a long time horizon and predominantly look to build wealth through gradual appreciation and compound interest rather than short-term gains.
The shorter the time horizon, the higher the risk that you could lose money on an investment. That's why the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)'s Office of Investor Education and Advocacy recommends putting money in a savings account if you'll need to access it within three years. For all other goals, investing could yield much better returns. Some investors may even plan to hold onto their investments for multiple decades.
☘️Here are some basic details about scalping, day trading, swing trading and investing, and I hope that information will help our new members to decide what’s best for them.
Thank you for reading folks! Till next Time!🌹
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Overcome Fear of Missing Out 🤮MAIN TALKING POINTS:
What is FOMO in trading?
What characterises a FOMO Trader?
Factors that can Trigger FOMO
DailyFX analysts share their FOMO experiences
Tips to overcome FOMO
WHAT IS FOMO IN TRADING?
FOMO in trading is the Fear of Missing Out on a big opportunity in the markets and is a common issue many traders will experience during their careers. FOMO can affect everyone, from new traders with retail accounts through to professional forex traders.
In the modern age of social media, which gives us unprecedented access to the lives of others, FOMO is a common phenomenon. It stems from the feeling that other traders are more successful, and it can cause overly high expectations, a lack of long-term perspective, overconfidence/too little confidence and an unwillingness to wait.
Emotions are often a key driving force behind FOMO. If left unchecked, they can lead traders to neglect trading plans and exceed comfortable levels of risk.
Common emotions in trading that can feed into FOMO include:
Greed
Fear
Excitement
Jealousy
Impatience
Anxiety
WHAT CHARACTERIZES A FOMO TRADER?
Traders who act on FOMO will likely share similar traits and be driven by a particular set of assumptions.
WHAT FACTORS CAN TRIGGER FOMO TRADING?
FOMO is an internal feeling, but one that can be caused by a range of situations. Some of the external factors that could lead to a trader experiencing FOMO are:
Volatile markets. FOMO isn’t limited to bullish markets where people want to hop on a trend – it can creep into our psyche when there is market movement in any direction. No trader wants to miss out on a good opportunity
Big winning streaks. Buoyed up by recent wins, it is easy to spot new opportunities and get caught up in them. And it’s fine, because everyone else is doing it, right? Unfortunately, winning streaks don’t last forever
Repetitive losses. Traders can end up in a vicious cycle: entering a position, getting scared, closing out, then re-entering another trade as anxiety and disappointment arise about not holding out. This can eventually lead to bigger losses
News and rumours. Hearing a rumour circulating can heighten the feeling of being left out –traders might feel like they’re out of the loop
Social media, especially financial Twitter (#FinTwit). The mix of social media and trading can be toxic when it looks like everyone is winning trades. It’s important not to take social media content at face value, and to take the time to research influencers and evaluate posts. We recommend using the FinTwit hashtag for inspiration, not as a definitive planning tool.
As well as affecting traders on an individual level, FOMO can have a direct bearing upon the markets. Moving markets might be emotionally driven – traders look for opportunities and seek out entry points as they perceive a new trend to be forming.
DAILYFX ANALYSTS SHARE THEIR FOMO EXPERIENCES
Traders of all levels of experience have dealt with FOMO, including our DailyFX analysts:
“Trade according to your strategy, not your feelings” – Peter Hanks, Junior Analyst
“Strategize. Execute. Stick to the plan and don’t be greedy. All types of traders make money; pigs get slaughtered” – Christopher Vecchio, Senior Strategist
“Trade decisions are not binary, long vs. short. Sometimes doing nothing is the best trade you can make” - IIya Spivak, Senior Currency Strategist
“If you don’t deal with and temper FOMO in trading – it will deal with you” – James Stanley, Technical Strategist
“No one trade should make or break you. With that said, if you miss an opportunity there is always another one around the corner” – Paul Robinson, Currency Strategist
TIPS TO OVERCOME FOMO
Overcoming FOMO begins with greater self-awareness, and understanding the importance of discipline and risk management in trading. While there is no simple solution to preventing emotions from impacting trades and stopping FOMO in its tracks, there are various techniques that can help traders make informed decisions and trade more effectively.
Here are some tips and reminders to help manage the fear factor:
There will always be another trade. Trading opportunities are like buses – another one will always come along. This might not be immediate, but the right opportunities are worth the wait.
Everyone is in the same position. Recognising this is a breakthrough moment for many traders, making the FOMO less intense. Join a DailyFX webinar and share experiences with other traders – this can be a useful first step in understanding and improving trading psychology.
Stick to a trading plan. Every trader should know their strategy, create a trading plan, then stick to it. This is the way to achieve long-term success
Taking the emotion out of trading is key. Learn to put emotions aside – a trading plan will help with this, improving trading confidence.
Traders should only ever use capital they can afford to lose. They can also use a stop to minimise losses if the market moves unexpectedly.
Knowing the markets is essential. Traders should conduct their own analysis and use this to inform trades, taking all information on board to be aware of every possible outcome.
FOMO isn’t easily forgotten, but it can be controlled. The right strategies and approaches ensure traders can rise above FOMO.
Keeping a trading journal helps with planning. It’s no coincidence that the most successful traders use a journal, drawing on personal experience to help them plan.
Overcoming FOMO doesn’t happen overnight; it’s an ongoing process. This article has provided a good starting point, highlighting the importance of trading psychology and managing emotions to prevent FOMO from affecting decisions when placing a trade.
TURN YOUR FOMO INTO JOMO
Now you know how to spot and stop FOMO in its tracks, find out how to embrace JOMO in trading and change your mindset for greater success.
Source: DailyFX
BIGGEST TRADING MISTAKES YOU MUST KNOW
While some trading mistakes are unavoidable, it is important that you don’t make a habit of them and learn from both successful and unsuccessful positions. With that in mind, these are the 10 most common trading mistakes.
1 - Not researching the markets properly
Some traders will open or close a position on a gut feeling, or because they have heard a tip.
It is important to back these feelings or tips up with evidence and market research before committing to opening or closing a position.
2 - Trading without a plan
3 - Over-reliance on indicators
4 - Failing to cut losses
The temptation to let losing trades run in the hope that the market turns can be a grave error, and failing to cut losses can wipe out any profits a trader may have made elsewhere.
5 - Overexposing a position
6 - Overdiversifying a portfolio too quickly
While diversifying a trading portfolio can act as a hedge in case one asset’s value declines, it can be unwise to open too many positions in a short amount of time.
7 - Not understanding leverage
8 - Not understanding the risk-reward ratio
The risk-to-reward ratio is something every trader should take into consideration, as it helps them decide whether the end profit is worth the possible risk of losing capital.
9 - Overconfidence after a profit
10 - Letting emotions impair decision-making
Emotional trading is not smart trading. Emotions, such as excitement after a good day or despair after a bad day, could cloud decision-making and lead traders to deviate from their plan.
Every trader makes mistakes, and the examples covered in this article don’t need to be the end of your trading. However, they should be taken as opportunities to learn what works and what doesn’t work for you.
TRADING - TRUTH VS LIE 📉📈
A financial background can be useful for understanding how forex and other markets work. However, more beneficial are skills in math, engineering and hard sciences, which better prepare traders for analyzing and acting on economic factors and chart patterns. It doesn’t matter how much awareness you have about financial markets – if you can’t process new data quickly, methodically and in a focused manner, those same markets you thought you knew so well can eat you alive.
ANSWER: LIE
EXPERT TIP: To prepare for trading, focus on developing analytical skills rather than boning up on financial knowledge.
Trading is like running a business. In order to be successful, you need to learn from mistakes and have rules in place to help protect your capital. Like a business, it’s crucial to have appropriate strategies on hand for varying market conditions. Setting up a business is easy, and similarly, trading is easy too. Developing successful strategies and making money? That’s the hard part.
ANSWER: TRUTH
EXPERT TIP: It will seem easy if your early trades go well, but long-term profitability is a different matter altogether. Make your life easier by researching your trades, using the right position size, setting stops and keeping a handle on your emotions.
Can you be successful with a small trading account? It depends on your definition of successful. An account needs to be large enough to accommodate proper risk parameters. But success is relative; a high rate of return is based on percentages and not on monetary amounts.
For example, a 20% return is a 20% return regardless of the account size. However, if your 20% return isn’t worth enough in hard cash, it might be hard to incentivize yourself to improve as a trader.
ANSWER: IT DEPENDS
EXPERT TIP: Your account size will depend on your goals and your prior success. Naturally, experienced traders will have a larger account but to begin with, concentrate on that rate of return percentage.
Bragging rights be damned: the number of trades you win is irrelevant. Profitable traders simply make more money than they lose.
Say you win five trades and make $5,000, but lose one trade and lose $6,000 – you have won more trades than you have lost but are still down overall. Profitable traders will set rigid risk-reward parameters for a trade – for example they might risk $500 to make $1,000, a risk-reward ratio of 1:2.
If a trader makes five trades using this method, loses three of them and wins two of them, the trader is still $500 in profit ($2,000 profit-$1,500 loss). Don’t be afraid of taking a few hits: if your process is sound, one big winning trade can reverse your fortunes.
ANSWER: LIE
EXPERT TIP: Many successful traders will be losing more trades than they win, but oftentimes it won’t bother them. Focus on getting the right setups rather than worrying about the ones that got away.
How much time you spend trading, and monitoring trades, will depend on your trading style. Those employing a scalping strategy, for instance, will make a large number of transactions per day, entering and exiting many positions, and will need to pay close attention to their trades on the shortest timeframes.
However, position traders won’t need to spend as much time monitoring, as their transactions may last weeks, months or even longer – meaning long-term analysis will account for short-term fluctuations.
ANSWER: IT DEPENDS
EXPERT TIP: Ask yourself what type of trader you are. Shorter timeframes will mean monitoring and analyzing constantly – being ‘always on’. If you favor a more relaxed approach you may be suited better for position trading.
Some traders advocate a ‘mental stop loss’ when the market gets tough – that is, relying on oneself rather than a computer to set a level at which to exit a losing position. The problem is, a ‘mental stop loss’ is just a number that makes you worried about the money you’re losing. You may fret about the direction of the market - but you won’t necessarily be compelled to exit your trade.
A fixed forex stop loss is completely different – if your stop loss price trades you are out of the position, no ifs or buts. Exercising proper money and risk management means setting solid stops. Period.
Answer: TRUTH
EXPERT TIP: It can be so easy to neglect your stop loss. When a trade is going your way, the dollar signs can blind you - but you should protect yourself against the market turning.
Spreads may represent the primary cost of trading, but they aren’t the be-all-end-all when it comes to choosing your market. You may find an asset that has a wide spread but represents a strong opportunity due to its volatility. Similarly, you may find an asset with high liquidity and a tight spread, but that isn’t showing much trading potential. Above all, you should let your trading decisions be governed by setups presented by the market, not the size of the spread.
Answer: LIE
EXPERT TIP: The spread can represent a significant cost to traders – but don’t let it be the sole factor dictating your choice of asset.
The economic analysis key to a fundamental approach helps give traders a broader view of the market. Sound knowledge of the underlying forces of the economy, industries and even individual companies can enable a trader to forecast future prices and developments. This is different to technical analysis, which helps to identify key price levels and historical patterns, and provides conviction for entering/exiting a trade.
It’s true to say that expertise in economic analysis is important. However, so too is expertise in the technicals. Many successful traders will look to combine fundamental and technical analysis so as to be in a position to draw on as wide a range of data as possible.
Answer: TRUTH
EXPERT TIP: It may be worthwhile to devise a strategy accounting for the nuances of both technical and fundamental analysis.
News can create big moves in the market, but that doesn’t mean trading the news leads to the biggest opportunities. For a start, the volatility of important news events often makes spreads wider, in turn increasing trading costs and hitting your bottom line. Slippage, or when you get filled at a different price than you intended, can also hit your profitability in volatile markets. On top of these drawbacks, traders could get locked out, making them helpless to correct a trade that moves against them.
ANSWER: LIE
EXPERT TIP: ‘Trading the news’ can seem like a fashionable thing to do, but market movements can be unpredictable at the time of major releases. It’s often best to steer clear during such high volatility.
Excluding emotions from trading is an impossible endeavor. It can lead to more internal conflict than benefits, which is why managing emotions is a better way of looking at it. You have negative emotions like fear and greed that need to be managed without suppressing positive ones like conviction that help drive you towards the best opportunities.
Answer: TRUTH
EXPERT TIP: Even the most experienced traders feel emotion in the heat of the markets, but how they harness that emotion makes all the difference.
Source: DailyFX
The path to becoming a good trader
When a beginner learns to trade, they progress through stages as they develop their mindset.
The most commonly used learning model for trading is an adaptation of the 3 stages of competence model.
1. Unprofitable trader
This is the first stage that a trader goes through and they do not know that they have a lack of knowledge. In this stage, beginner traders will take their first few steps by downloading a platform, opening an account and begin to place trades.
However, they are influenced by emotion – usually lured by the thought of making a great deal of money in a short period of time.
Either one of two things are likely to happen for traders in this stage:
The trades turns against the trader immediately. They simply lack the experience to deal with the market environment.
New traders take large risks without a basic knowledge of risk management and they wipe out all previous profits and more.
2. Boom and bust trader
Boom and bust traders will realise that successful trading comes down to the psychology of the trader and their approach to the markets.
A basic understanding that you will never be able to predict what will happen in the markets, starts to form. You begin to realise that making money is based on a series of trades that incorporate winners and losers, and that it takes discipline to stick to a system, cut losses short and let profits run.
A trader in this stage will begin to enter and exit the markets whenever their system tells them to, without judgement and despite the emotion they are feeling.
3. Profitable trader
A trader is said to have reached the stage of unconscious competence once they have traded with so much practice that they are able to trade in an almost automatic mindset.
A disciplined approach requires very little effort and has become second nature.
At what stage are you at the moment?
How to Blow Your Account | Step-By-Step Guide 💰 to 🪙
Hey traders,
In this article, we will discuss the set of actions, habits and beliefs that will blow your account.
1. Trades are based on emotional decisions
Behind each trading position must be a reason.
The entry reason of a professional trader is based on a very strict and objective conditions, while an unprofitable trader follows emotions and intuition.
2. Stop loss placement is for losers
A lot of traders consistently neglect placing a stop loss. Remember, just one single trade without that may blow your entire account.
3. Set unrealistic goals
There is a common misconception concerning trading: that the equity size is not proportional to potential gains. Such a reasoning leads to various false conclusions.
One who is trading with 100$ account and expecting to buy lambo, will inevitably blow the account.
4. No time for trade journaling
Why to even bother yourself with trade journaling?! It is just waste of time.
Remember, that trading journal is one of that best tools for learning. Constantly assessing your past decisions, you identify the flaws of your strategy and fix that, increasing your future gains.
5. Trading plan is for fools
I know a lot of traders who trade without a plan.
Remember, that the trading plan is your roadmap. Without that, it is impossible to become a consistently profitable trader.
6. Blindly following other's view
While you are learning how to trade, your task is to learn the reasoning behind the trades of the pro's in the industry. Following them without reflections, you are not learning and, moreover, you are becoming dependent. Losing, you put the responsibility on their shoulders instead of yours.
Such an approach will lead you to failure.
Learn to become responsible in your trading decisions and execute your own analysis before you follow any other trader.
7. Who needs economic data
As we discussed many times, fundamentals are the driver of the market. Neglecting the trends and global situation, not studying the news, you will unavoidably be fooled by the market.
8. Indicators are the magic pill
I know a lot of traders, who spend thousands of dollars looking for a magic indicator - the instrument that will make tons of money.
The fact is that indicators are just a tool in your toolbox. Its goal is to provide some minor additional clues to your analysis.
Overestimating the importance of indicators, you will most likely blow your account.
9. Not investing in education
Many traders are spending their money not on education but on fancy tools, signal services, robots and indicators.
However, the fact is that only knowledge gives freedom, only skills can make you independent.
10. Back testing is pointless
Trying different strategies, many traders intentionally skip the back testing part.
Remember, that back testing is the most proven way to verify the efficiency of a strategy, allowing you to save time and money simultaneously.
11. Paper trading does not make any sense
Same thing with paper trading. For some reason, the majority of the traders skip demo trading, quickly opening a real account.
However, the fact is that demo trading is the best, risk-free tool for learning how the market works.
Unfortunately, these 11 fallacies and misconceptions are very common. Analyze your trading and make sure that you are not making these classic mistakes.
What would you add in that list?
❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section.
Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
WHAT ARE GAPS? TRIGGERS AND TIPS TO SPOT & TRADE THEM
Gaps are important parts of the financial market, especially in stocks and currencies. They happen when an asset opens at a significantly lower or higher price than where it closed at.
Gap is a situation where a currency or any other asset opens sharply lower or higher than where it closed the previous day. Such a gap happens when there is a major event or news when the markets are closed.
It usually represents an area where there is no trading taking place.
There are three main scenarios that happen after a gap in the market forms.
First, an asset price can continue moving in the direction of the gap. For example, when a bullish gap forms, an asset’s price can continue with that trend.
Second, a gap can be filled within a few days or months.
Finally, a gap can be followed by a long period of consolidation as traders focus on the next major moves. In all these, it is always good to focus on the asset’s volume.
The most common strategy of gap trading is when you decide to enter a trade in the opposite direction of the gap. In this case, you will be betting that the asset will reverse after forming a gap. Ideally, one way of doing this is to check the trends of volume after the gap happens.
Still, the risk of doing this is that the asset will either consolidate or resume the gap trend.
THE ROAD TO SUCCESS
The article is aptly named for it is the road that matters not the destination. And here is why:
Our brain, though incredibly complex, runs its basic functions on ancient and primitive brain circuits using the carrot and stick principle to motivate us to do some things and to demotivate us from doing other things.
That carrot and stick stimuli come in the form of pleasure and pain of varying strength, and the brain creates a dynamic map of the positive and negative stimuli and then our prefrontal lobes develop the best path to navigate this map. The map to success right? Well, kinda…
The thing is that if the map and the assigned values of the stimuli were fixed we would have all soon achieved whatever we desired in the moment and would have been ecstatic for the rest of our lives, but our brain is there to ensure survival and reproduction therefore, the stimuli value map is dynamic with the brain reducing the reward we get each time we do the same thing that we previously craved, with the exception of the few basic things vital for survival like food and reproductive activities.
Anyhow, just as with drugs the high is less and less potent form the same dose as the time goes by. So is the “high” form a certain level of success we reached. Happy at first, we will soon notice that the “kick” is no longer there, meaning that the values on the map have been reassigned and the brain is demanding that you set off on another quest to achieve yet even greater success.
That way you keep moving, and the final success is always just one step away, but just like the horizon with each step towards it, it makes one step away from you.
That is why we, as traders, need to appreciate the road itself too. Get joy from looking at the charts, finding patterns, learning new things and creating strategies. Without that, the life of a trader with its ups and downs, and constant stress will drive you nuts pretty soon…
Cheers to all of you, who enjoy the charts as much as I do, and thanks to Tradingview, for giving such a great platform for savouring each and every moment of it!
Slope breakdown. Active coin, large volumesThe asset fell for a long time. Got a little selling. A strong inclined level has also formed, which the price has impulsively broken through and is trying to gain a foothold. Volumes are rising. There are grounds for a reversal. I expect a retest of the incline and movement towards the marked targets.