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Education - What are divergences and how do I use them? What are divergences and how do I use them in trading? A divergence usually shows the trader that the price is moving in the opposite direction to the indicator (or vice versa). To find a possible divergence in the price you can use various indicators (MACD, Stochastic, Momentum, etc.) I will limit myself to the Momentum indicator, because I use it myself in my trading. What does a divergence say? As already mentioned, the indicator shows me a contrary movement to the price, related to the momentum indicator this means for example: The price rises and forms a new high, but the momentum indicator forms a lower high in the indicator itself compared to the previous PRICE HIGH How do I use a divergence? A divergence can be used in many ways if you know what to do with the information gained. In my opinion, this also depends on the chosen indicator, at least in terms of the information value I get from the divergence. If one is able to identify a divergence correctly, one receives a kind of "warning", in my opinion a divergence by itself does not represent an action signal, but it warns me that in the case of the momentum indicator it comes to a trend slowdown although the price continues to rise. What is to be paid attention to here? -> As mentioned, a divergence by itself is in my opinion NOT a TREND SIGNAL, but a warning or information around which I can now supplement or adjust my trading. -> Very important, there are two ways that one "bends" the divergence to right once the setting of the indicator is crucial, since each trader uses other settings, it is important not to change these in search of a divergence so that one is formed. ->Furthermore, it is important to consider the time unit under consideration, a divergence occurring in H1 is much less meaningful than one in D1. Summary: Divergences are a possibility to add important information to one's trading at an early stage in order to forecast possible price changes that have not yet occurred. They do not represent action signals on their own.
BEducation
by SystemTrader-SNP
BTC AI PredictionI've been running several algo's (only super_simplified versions here on TV) at the same time attempting to compute Probability distributions (DL based on SVM) of a mean reversion for COINBASE:BTCUSD at this level, and using Convolutional neural networks, to map current price action patterns with historic chart patterns across multiple sectors. Here's the Alpha: According to my model we should see a retest of the 54k-55k level before rejecting and correcting down to the mid 30k's. Note: Probability theory is just PROBABILITY. Nothing is for sure. Human emotions are too random to accurately predict. :) MM
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by yinandyani
3
EURUSD SHORT: TRIGGER AND ENTRY USING RISING WEDGE PATTERN Price sold below the RWP (RISING WEDGE PATTERN) to 1.20952 before a pullback to retest lower channel trend line. A retest of the lower channel trend line is the trigger for a short entry which is bearish until the next logical support region. The first support region is at 1.20867-1.20789 and the second at 1.20269-1.20198 region on the chart. The strength of a RWP depends on the measure of convergence of the trend lines at the apex of the channel trend. This is a good pattern for a short entry within a bullish trend. Hope you've enjoyed the read, more RWP analysis ideas are welcomed!
by dvburn3r
The Crypto Dance: Bitcoin & Alt Season Dominance Cycles GuideThe Crypto Dance: Bitcoin & Alt Season Dominance Cycles Guide Hello and happy Chinese Lunar New Year! Hope you're all doing well. I made this simple guide to show you the relationship between Bitcoin's price & dominance vs. alt season dominance. You can use this as an ongoing reference during the bull cycle this year, or even this whole decade and beyond, to learn how the cryptocurrency market typically behaves. Credit to XForceGlobal for their publication (linked below) where I got the idea & source material to make this guide. Enjoy!
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D
by ghostass
7
Major correction coming soon for Bitcoin?We see that Bitcoin is trading in a range since ~ 8 January. What is this chart showing? - There was a shift in Market Structure at the 10th off January - After this shift we saw the Lower-Low - I see Equal high's, those should get hunted (imo) (My) Conclusion: I placed my short order at 50% of the orderblock (blue). I think this could be a major turning point for Bitcoin. Price could easy visit $25000 region (FVG). Price could also drop lower to test broken levels that are (STILL!) untested. Thank you for checking my analysis! Do you have tips or other comments? Tell me please! I'm open for feedback!
Short
by stannieb
3
ZRX at an all-time low but hold your horsesZRX has recently set a new all-time low against Bitcoin. Last time this happened in September 2019 after months of sales against Bitcoin, which back then just ended a short-lived bull run. Soon after that low, ZRX bounced up by +40% a week. So now many traders are curious if this setup would happen again. We’ve asked the following question on the Cindicator platform: The cryptocurrency 0x (ZRX/BTC) settled at 0.00001298 BTC at 10:25 AM UTC at the binance exchange on Monday, January 11. In your opinion, will ZRX/BTC trade above 0.00001623 BTC (+25.0%) at any time before January 25? Hybrid Intelligence (148,000+ analysts +AI) voted, producing this result: 48.58% This means uncertainty is very high. There is about a 50% chance of ZRX going up +25% against BTC over next week. Of course, there is the same chance of this NOT happening… It’s best to avoid entering positions now and keep watching what BTC will do: a continued sell-off might drag ZRX even lower.
by Cindicator
4
My first ETHUSD ideaHi All, Thank you for opening my post and having a look! I'm new to TA so please don't take this as advice or whatsoever. I'm curious how my idea plays out and i would love to have your feedback. Trying to learn new stuff everyday! On the 1h chart (bittrex) im seeing a ascending triangle, which could be seen as a continuation pattern in a down trend. Currently the price is at $1100 where the 100 ema line needs to be crossed, next to the .382 fib level which needs to be cleared. If this doenst succeed I expect ETH to break below the triangle and drop to the .786 fib level. $850 would then be my suggested next support level. Thanks again for (re)viewing my post. Leave me a comment with your thoughts and feedback!
BITTREX:ETHUSDShort
by mdumont
7
Understanding how to trade Pennant patterns / Real exampleToday we will show you the theory behind Pennant patterns and apply them to a real example. CONTINUATION PATTERNS: Ralph Nelson Elliott (who created the Elliott Wave Theory) discovered that there are 4 types of patterns that the resolution of them tend to be in the same direction of the previous impulse once the correction is finished and we have a breakout. -TRIANGLES -IRREGULARS -ZIG-ZAGS -FLATS Today we will learn about pennant patterns, which are a type of triangle. Pennant Patterns are made by 5 waves (abcde); you can draw that using the tools you have on trading view on "Patterns." In general terms, you will be able to draw two converging lines, and the price will start compressing there. It's important to know which is the previous impulse of the pattern to draw the Fibo Extension using that previous impulse. The Fibo Extension will allow you to define targets and are extremely useful when you are at ATH because you can't rely on previous technical movements to define supports or resistances. HOW TO TRADE THEM? Entry-level: Always above/below B depending on the direction you are trading. In this case with AMZN, our confirmation level is above B Stop Level: Always above/below A depending on the direction, you are trading. The easiest way to define your stop level is by setting it above/below the whole structure. Break-Even level: If the price starts going in the expected direction, you can move your stop loss to your entry-level, once the price reaches the First Fibo Extension Target: Use the last Fibo extension level. Your minimum risk rewards ratio should always be 1.5, never less than that. Thanks for reading!
NASDAQ:AMZNEducation
by ThinkingAntsOk
7
SEC impactAs we are aware over 90% of XRP holdings are done individuals outside of the US. However, we need to understand that this does not mean the US can reach international Laws when it comes to anything involving big money. I have two personal opinions and comment below on what you think. I believe that when Feb 22 hits XRP will be back at the 0.45-0.50 maybe even 0.60 based on the previous structure that we broke back there that started on the 24th of Nov and Wicked out at 0.78. What i expect that from Feb 22nd XRP will wick out at around 0.70 and touch the 0.25-30 before we fly again over 1.00. Now my other personal opinion is simply that the price of XRP remain at the 0.25-0.30 and as a result of the Lawsuit if it may be deemed not a security, bring us directly to the 1.00 price range without the chance to see 0.25.30 again. Now I believe this to be my personal opinion but if you think about it the Forex market is already a 4-5Trillion dollar market and that's per day. I believe the crypto market capitalization will reach 100 trillion dollars by 2025 if not 2030. This is simply something i see based on where the world is headed in terms of currency and the use of currency globally. Comment down what you think as I personally believe that XRPA itself will one day reach that MKT CAP of 1 trillion dollars. In Crypto, you never say never.
BITSTAMP:XRPUSDLong
by jeansipeninvestments
🎓 EDUCATION 2: STOP Trading (Only) with Technicals ❌Happy Thursday traders! It’s time to continue with our Educational Series on how to become a successful trader with a professional trading approach. It's holiday season, and closed markets mean more time to sharpen our trading skills! Let's go... In the last post, we touched on the main ingredients of a successful trader (check the link to "related idea"). Let’s reinforce those again: 1. Market Analysis – Your “Analyst” side. Here, you are going to combine Fundamentals, Intermarket analysis, Sentiment analysis, and (the correct) Technical analysis (FIST approach). 2. Trading – Your “Trader” side. Once the analyst in you spots a promising trade idea, the trader in you is responsible to execute the trade with proper entry and exit levels. 3. Management – Your “Manager” side. Every trader is a risk manager. Your manager side is responsible to manage your trade and risk levels, scale in and out of positions, open the correct position sizes, evaluate the reward-to-risk of your trades, etc. Alright, so far we are still covering your “Analyst” side. Your analyst side determines whether you will buy EURUSD, sell GBPJPY, buy gold, and sell silver. It’s the part of your trading that constantly scans for profitable trade ideas and setups in the markets, and passes them on to your “Trader” side. Why You Shouldn’t Rely on Technical Analysis? The majority of new traders I see in the retail space place too much attention on technical analysis. They search the internet for TA articles, look for the “holy grail” indicator, read dozens of technical analysis books, but still don’t manage to improve their trading performance. The truth is, they don’t understand the markets. I don’t care how many TA books you’ve read in your entire life, if you don’t understand how markets work and what moves prices up and down, you won’t succeed as a trader. Unfortunately, almost every retail trading website promotes and publishes those articles, because they are attracting clicks of inexperienced traders. Here is a hint: When I worked in the trading department of a large European bank, I didn’t even look at charts. There are almost no charts and no indicators on the trading floors of big banks and hedge funds! Do you really think that banks will move hundreds of millions into a trade because the 50-day MA crossed the 100-day MA, or because the price formed a Head & Shoulders pattern? The first time you do this in a bank will likely be your last day as a professional trader. So why do retail traders trade like that? Because they don’t know of better ways to trade. No one has taught them that trading based purely on technical analysis will never work. It’s in nobody’s interest to teach you this because large market participants need the “dumb money”. Yes, they make a profit when you trade badly and lose money. So, what’s moving the market if it’s not technicals? The Forex market is the marketplace for the world’s currencies, and currencies are influenced by supply and demand. To be more precise, interest rates influence currencies, with higher interest rates increasing demand for a currency (therefore leading to higher prices) and lower interest rates decreasing demand for a currency (therefore leading to lower prices.) We as Forex traders are interest rate traders. We trade currencies based on (short-term) views about their future interest rates. For example, let’s say the market expects higher inflation rates (inflation represents the change in the price of goods and services during a year) in Australia, which could lead to a response from the Reserve Bank of Australia by hiking interest rates. This will create demand for the AUD (remember, global capital is always chasing yield), which in turn would lead to a higher exchange rate of the AUD. If you only followed technicals and identified a bearish divergence on the RSI in AUD/USD - and you entered short - it’s your fault. The pair would likely move higher on higher interest rate expectations in Australia. So, when do technical levels work? When the market trades in fair value (in fundamental equilibrium), you’ll find that simple technical rules work. If large market participants agree that the current exchange rate of a currency pair is “fair” given the current fundamentals, smaller players may move the market when the price reaches a support or resistance level, or when the price breaks above or below a triangle. Unfortunately, markets are always in a state of flux and rarely in equilibrium, so following other analytical disciplines (besides technical analysis) will improve your trading performance dramatically. This chart shows the Band of Agnosticism. This band represents a span of exchange rates where fundamental-based traders are unlikely to join the market because the market is already in a fundamental fair-value zone. As the exchange rate starts to approach the upper or lower band, fundamental-based traders (which happen to be large banks and hedge funds) start considering opening new positions. The volume of their orders pushes the price back inside what is considered fair value. Professional traders first look at a variety of other factors before they decide what currency pair they want to trade. Once we identify a good trading candidate (our “Analyst” side does that), then it’s time to open the chart and find areas where we could enter with a long position (and those are not trendline breakouts!) We will cover all of this, step by step, in the coming Educational posts. Don't forget to FOLLOW to receive all future trade ideas and educational posts! Happy holidays everyone. 🎆
Education
by MujkanovicFX
1
Why most people fail as retail traders?I see two main reasons which complement each other for the high rate of failure. First and foremost, the media and the industry promote this idea that it’s easy to become a profitable trader and anybody can go it. This is, of course, not true. Theoretically, anybody can do it if willing to put the effort and approach it as a business. Practically almost nobody approaches trading with the same rigorousness as any other professional endeavor. Let’s put aside the first reason, about which there is not much we can do. A big chunk of the industry relies on peoples being naive and we’re not going to change that. On top of the first reason, we have a second reason related to people themselves. Most of those who try trading financial markets simply don’t manage their emotions and risk well enough to survive the learning curve. Managing your own emotions turns out to be a complex endeavor and constantly changing market conditions lengthen the learning curve. One of the things that makes this business so attractive is also the main thing that makes it so difficult to master. The direct and sometimes violent feedback you receive from the market, after each trading decision, has an astonishing impact on a human’s ability to keep his psychological well being in check and control his own reactions. It has the potential to disrupt executive functions and trigger instinctual “fight or flight” responses. This leads to emotional trading or trading on tilt which quickly generates more losses than any other mistake you could make in this business. Most other jobs have a protective buffer zone between usual day to day work decisions and the ultimate feedback — end of the month paycheck. This profession doesn’t. Every little call you make has an immediate impact on your capital. Every little mistake can take a portion of your capital away and every good decision can bring it all back and more. This kind of psychological exposure is heavily distressful and being aware of its mechanisms makes a huge difference. So … psychology differentiates the pro. Don’t get me wrong … professional discretionary traders are not emotionless but are much more aware and in control of their reactions. The successful pro deeply understands that trading is mainly about people's perceptions and the rest are just details. You may ask yourself how can such a level be reached? A starting point is to stay away from any market, financial instrument, time frame, trading technique, or any combination of those that doesn’t fit who you are deep inside. The least the exposure to triggers that can awake the demons within, the best. Always seek strategies that you understand and match your inner self. For example … if you are impatient trade shorter time frames, if you are very risk-averse don’t use huge margin, if you are risk-averse but you don’t have enough capital use margin with a tight risk management (maybe options), if you have a statistical mind try quantitative approaches etc. There are infinite possibilities to adapt to yourself and is a must to do it if you want to have a chance. It always amuses me to see the vast majority of educational resources geared towards what market does when most of the success in this business is knowing how you adapt to the market, whatever it may do. And, of course, the market is, more or less, the other traders.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by Mihai_Iacob
1