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USD/JPY down to 108.4 and past according to my ARIMA ML modelpasteboard.co I have used the presented leading drivers from the book "The art of currency trading" by Brent Donnelly to build an ARIMA machine learning model, using the us 2y 5y and 10y bond interest rates as well as gold, spx and nikkei225 to build the model, i had entered at 108.848 and set my take profit for 108.4, went to sleep had i been awake i would have taken profit when the market nearly touched this mark, the median line for the regression model is at 108.25 area, according to price action i believe this looks like a retest before going back down. #superquanttrader picture of my model in the link above! as you can see the market as respected this regression predictor fairly well in the past, I am also confident due to the mac d indicator indicating a sell on the 4 hour time frame. I actually didn't set a stop loss for this trade as I believe it will go to 108.4 much before it hits 111 Fundamental news has bears looking at the 107 area from the article i read on fx street from the us bond market being weaker, which is what this model is partly based on.
Short
by SuperQuantTrader
1
EURJPYAs I said last weeks...exactly as I said, EJ closed above 129700 and has already made 70 pips! Even if EJ will test the 130,600 area again, I will continue to bet on SELL because the 1-month candle closed under a very strong resistance from 130,100. THIS WEEK...EJ makes a dangerous range in this area! Even if I still bet on SELL because on the 1 month chart EJ is overbought and formed W but only up to area 128700-128200 where I think EJ will force the climb back to 132,600 which is the Fibonacci level 786! however ... a close even for 4 hours over 130,700 will force me to think of BUY at least 200 pips! Please, give a LIKE if you find this idea useful! GREAT ATTENTION: Our analyzes have an accuracy of over 91% but due to market manipulations during this period we will avoid putting exact values on SL! We also recommend avoiding short-term trades during this period because news can appear at any time that can destabilize the market. *This information is not a Financial Advice.
by BloomFX_SIGNALS
Fibonacci Extensions From ScratchHi traders! Evidently, every trader understands the importance of defining the trend with its support and resistance levels. Unfortunately, sometimes it’s kinda difficult or even impossible to do with basic tools. Nevertheless, traders have fixed the problem and evented some indictors that are able to solve this problem. One of them is Fibonacci extensions . Fibonacci extensions are a way to establish price targets or find projected areas of support or resistance when the price is moving into an area where other methods of finding support or resistance are not applicable or evident. As you can see, Fib Extensions is some kind of ratios.The ratios themselves are based on something called the Golden Ratio. How to build Fib Extension? During the up trend you should initialize the point of previous lower lower. Next point is the higher high and lower low again. The points should be consistent.
Education
by Skyrexio
2
LTC/BTC has me cautiously optimistic I'm observing LTC here as it has decisions to make. Either down, up or sideways. Speaking with fellow traders whom's opinions I respect and have more experience than I have. I've been warned that LTC seems to like to fake out. Thus I'm neutral on this and it definitely isn't a call . I'm not going to let the bullish signs of reversal I see put me in a long bias just yet. Rather I'll be using this as a learning experience and be following it's steps (hopefully gradually stepping up) . As the adage goes "Markets like to take the steps up and the window down". FA observations: 1. It's been in price discovery for a while looking for it's bottom ;) 2. It's bounced off the support line and may be forming a V bottom reversal and could possibly look to put in a HL from here 3. I'm seeing bulls stepping in and buying these lows I'm publishing this idea so that I may keep it in the back of my mind and maybe in yours? I do think when LTC starts moving it's going to be one for the books. And with that I would like to wish everyone a happy Easter and do spend this time with loved ones (especially parents, while you still can) # Obligatory Disclaimer My ethos at the onset is best described by the following acronym K.I.S.S (Keep it simple stupid) I use this mantra to ground myself, because nobody "outsmarts" the markets, even the legends only had a big brain understanding of them, you will always be the student. Make peace with that fact. Also I'll be sticking with simple charts that show my analysis of assets and won't be cluttering with the indicators I'm using, I'm not an educator. There are many other education channels here on TV and great senpai's curating them. If most of what I said above doesn't make sense, my advice is don't put your hard earned money in ( And most importantly none of this is financial advice, don't come crying and moaning at me if/when you lost your lunch money! ) And with that ladies and gents , always K.I.S.S before you get F'd
by JohntradesWicks
2
Parabolic SAR From ScratchHi, traders! Today we’ll continue our series of educational articles. We hope you enjoyed the previous one and found it useful. We have already told about the necessity of identifying a trend . Most of freshmen and even experienced traders find it really difficult. There is even more difficult problem, though. Finding the most profitable points of entrance and exit is very complicated task for anybody. However, technical analysis gives traders some tools and techniques that simplify this task greatly. Today we’ll talk about Parabolic SAR (PSAR) , one of the best indicators for identifying trend reverses. Let’s have a look at it. PSAR is the line of dots which is plotted below or above the price candles. When the trend is bullish the dots are below the candles, when the trend is bearish they are above. PSAR calculation is rather difficult and we don’t want to bore you. One you should know is the main parameters – step and maximum step (default 0.02 and 0.2). When you increase this values, you increase the sensitivity of indicator, but at the same time sacrifice its precision, cause it starts catching lots of false signals. Whereas we decrease these values sensitivity becomes less, but signals are more accurate. Thus, it’s very important to find balance , in order to minimize lagging and get accurate signals.
Education
by Skyrexio
MACD From ScratchHi, traders! Today we gonna start the tutorial “Trading from scratch”. These short but very useful articles are intended for beginners who’s just started their way in trading. We hope you’ll enjoy. Today’s article will give the full understanding of one the most popular, easy and very useful indicator - MAC. Moreover, we’ll show you how to apply it efficiently. MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence) is a trend indicator that shows the trend and its momentum. It consists of two lines: MACD line and signal line. Both of them are EMA with different periods. We got MACD line subtracting from EMA with less period (fast) EMA with longer period (slow). The signal line is MACD line smoothed by the very short EMA. How to trade with MACD? Divergence The first very powerful signal is divergence. Divergence means the difference between slope of the trend line on chart and indicator. To learn about it properly you can read our Divergences Cheat Sheet . Catching divergences is a good signal to buy or sell. As you can see on the screen, the first time we got bearish regular divergence. Thus, we are going to short. Then we can see bullish hidden divergence and it’s a good chance to execute a long position. NOTE We can draw divergence lines both on MACD line and histogram.
Education
by Skyrexio
2
Make sure to focus on improving in every aspectNote I am using GBPJPY, a favorite of high leverage day gamblers as it has the biggest range of the 30 leverage pairs. I am not "spreading FUD", if day gamblers want to lose their money I do not care. Actually I like it. Finding success is satisfying but additionally watching others fail has an added sweetness that is irresistible. This is simply a reminder to be logical, and since we try to always better ourselves we have to make sure to better ourselves on all aspects. It sounds simple like this but I assure you it is simple when you are told it, like hindsight. People think they are supermen that think of everything, never miss anything, and are going to buy at bottoms and sell at tops. Well to people that think that: good for you. I am no superman. And believe me I'm not being humble I hold myself to high standards and have a big pride. Warren Buffett is no superman either. Neither is George Soros. Nor Jim Simons, he made real money decades after buying his first future contract and needed to hire someone to help him out with stocks which he did not know that well. You may ask "But MrRenev how do I improve on myself and my trading? I do not even know where to start, I do not even know what to improve in". Well you force yourself to have a rational organised mind, write it down; and you take your chart screen, sit in front of it, and stay there for the next 50 years. ==> Read, read, read. Watch videos, read articles like this one or (I'm not sure if I can mention potential competitors), go on forums, read books if you want. I would call this part the "fun" part, or the leisure part. Watch videos you find interesting, even read memeposts on the internet, as long as you can tell what is bs what is not, even absolute trash will teach you how others think or will make you think or will show you others mistakes. ==> The second part, the laborious one (it's okay when you get into it you won't see the hours). You open excel, you open tradingview, you get a tool to save screenshots automatically, you open the calculator, you open a CME window, you open notepad/sublimetext. And you grind. You take in vast amounts of data, process it, look at the stats, and you learn. You ask questions such as "what are other participants doing? What are their holding periods" and so on. So here is the secret holy grail: R.D. Wyckoff started as a stock runner for a New York brokerage at 15 years old. He started speculating at least 10 years later, after having learned much from the charts and his clients mistakes. W.D. Gann is the son of a cotton farmer and started hearing and learning about markets at a young age. He then went to a business school (useless) and worked for a broker, like Wyckoff he learned from his clients mistakes and then started proprietary trading. George Soros started in 1954 as a clerk, then arbitrage trader, in 1959 he was an analyst for euro stocks, until 1963 when he became a VP. He started a fund in 1966 with his employer money (correct me if I am wrong) to try out his trading strategies - developed during his 12 years in the business. Don't just "try to make money", improve on everything and it will come with time. Remember, the most toxic tryhards are the best players in sports and video games. Same thing here. If your goal is not to be "the best I can" and just "make money", McDonald's has job offers available, good luck as a burger flipper, and I'm not sure I'd want to eat those.
Education
by MrRenev
3
ITCDisclaimer: I'm.not a SEBI Registered financial advisor all views posted are just for mutual learning and I'm not responsible for your profits or losses ,build your own conviction through learning and take action ,don't enter blindly , I hope this post add some value to your learning 😊 About stock :ITC is forming a Triangle Pattern and looks good upto Rs365 ( minimum hldng period 1year& Ardmore around 190levels) for very short-term traders Targets could be 220&235 StopLoss -199
NSE:ITCLong
by yaparla510698
1
A Quick intro to Moving Averages (Beginners) I have recently had some questions on some of the basics such as moving averages. First of all, there is some great free content out there via sites such as Babypips I wanted to share some simple info to at least explain what a moving average is. Where it is used and what are the types of. Moving average is a simple, technical analysis tool. Moving averages are usually calculated to identify the trend direction of a stock or to determine its support and resistance levels. It is a trend-following—or lagging—indicator because it is based on past prices. They also form the building blocks for many other technical indicators and overlays, such as Bollinger Bands, MACD and the McClellan Oscillator. The two most popular types of moving averages are the Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Moving averages are a totally customizable indicator, which means you can freely choose whatever time frame they want when calculating an average. The most common time periods used in moving averages are 15, 20, 30, 50, 100, and 200 days. The shorter the time span used to create the average, the more sensitive it will be to price changes. The longer the time span, the less sensitive the average will be. @TradingView has many of these tools to use under the list of indicators. A simple moving average is formed by computing the average price of a security over a specific number of periods. Most moving averages are based on closing prices; for example, a 5-day simple moving average is the five-day sum of closing prices divided by five. As its name implies, a moving average is an average that moves. Old data is dropped as new data becomes available, causing the average to move along the time scale. Then you have an Exponential Moving Average (EMA). reduce the lag by applying more weight to recent prices. The weighting applied to the most recent price depends on the number of periods in the moving average. EMAs differ from simple moving averages in that a given day's EMA calculation depends on the EMA calculations for all the days prior to that day. You need far more than 10 days of data to calculate a reasonably accurate 10-day EMA. Highlighting the difference between an MA & an SMA - The Smoothed Moving Average (SMMA) is similar to the Simple Moving Average (SMA), in that it aims to reduce noise rather than reduce lag. The indicator takes all prices into account and uses a long lookback period. Then how it can be used and applied, *** There are many strategies out there, the most basic starts with above or below a level (above = buy, below = sell) And then it steps into two moving averages crossing for example. Also as I mentioned above - other indicators use a form of moving average to calculate their plot. Another simple strategy - Investopedia This moving average trading strategy uses the EMA, because this type of average is designed to respond quickly to price changes. Here are the strategy steps. 🍒Plot three exponential moving averages—a five-period EMA, a 20-period EMA, and 50-period EMA—on a 15-minute chart. 🍒Buy when the five-period EMA crosses from below to above the 20-period EMA, and the price, five, and 20-period EMAs are above the 50 EMA. 🍒For a sell trade, sell when the five-period EMA crosses from above to below the 20-period EMA, and both EMAs and the price are below the 50-period EMA. 🍒Place the initial stop-loss order below the 20-period EMA (for a buy trade), or alternatively about 10 pips from the entry price. 🍒An optional step is to move the stop-loss to break even when the trade is 10 pips profitable. 🍒Consider placing a profit target of 20 pips, or alternatively exit when the five-period falls below the 20-period if long, or when the five moves above the 20 when short. I hope this helps - Please feel free to add more info below. Any suggestions & comments to help new traders, always appreciated. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDEducation
by Mayfair_Ventures
97