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Duolingo Stock Soars As Online Learning Surge and AI Boost Duolingo (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:DUOL ) has witnessed a remarkable surge in its stock price, soaring over 19.79% as the company projects robust revenue growth fueled by the booming online learning trend and strategic integration of artificial intelligence (AI) on its platform. The language learning giant's forecast for 2024 revenue surpasses analyst expectations, underscoring its dominant position in the evolving online education landscape. As the language learning market undergoes a paradigm shift towards online platforms, Duolingo ( NASDAQ:DUOL ) has emerged as a frontrunner, capitalizing on its "freemium" model to capture a significant market share. With the introduction of Duolingo Max, a subscription tier featuring advanced AI features, the company has tapped into growing demand for personalized learning experiences, driving higher engagement and user satisfaction. "We saw a lot of demand at higher prices for our Max offering," noted CFO Matt Skaruppa, highlighting the success of Duolingo's AI-driven initiatives in enhancing the platform's value proposition and monetization capabilities. The company's stellar financial performance reflects its ability to leverage AI technology effectively, with record total bookings of $191 million in the fourth quarter and a substantial increase in paid subscribers, reaching a record 6.6 million. Moreover, Duolingo's robust user growth metrics, including a 65% increase in daily active users and a 46% year-on-year growth in monthly active users, underscore its widespread appeal and growing user base. Analysts at Seaport Global emphasize Duolingo's leadership position in the language learning market, attributing its success to the strategic integration of AI technology and the execution of its "freemium" business model. With the online learning trend gaining momentum, Duolingo ( NASDAQ:DUOL ) stands poised to capitalize on emerging opportunities and drive sustained growth in the years ahead. Despite the impressive surge in Duolingo's stock price, trading above $227, there remains room for further upside potential, with analysts highlighting the company's strong fundamentals and positive market sentiment. While trading at a discount to analysts' median price target of $251.50, Duolingo's transformative growth trajectory and strategic vision position it as a compelling investment opportunity in the dynamic ed-tech sector. In conclusion, Duolingo's ( NASDAQ:DUOL ) ascent to new heights underscores its resilience, innovation, and strategic foresight in navigating the evolving landscape of online education. With AI integration at the forefront of its growth strategy, the company is poised to redefine the future of language learning and solidify its position as a global leader in the digital education space.
NASDAQ:DUOLLong
by DEXWireNews
Trading Sessions in Forex | Free Market Sessions Indicator Hey traders, In this post, we will discuss trading sessions in Forex . Let's start with the definition: Trading session is daytime trading hours in a certain location. The opening and closing hours match with business hours. For that reason, trading hours are varying in different countries because of contrasting timezones. ❗️Please, note that different markets may have different trading hours. Also, some markets have pre-market and after-hours trading sessions. In this post, we are discussing only forex trading hours. The forex market opens on Sunday at 21:00 GMT and closes on Friday at 21:00 pm GMT. There are 4 main trading sessions in Forex: 🇦🇺 Australian (Sydney) Session Opens at 21:00 GMT and closes at 06:00 GMT 🇯🇵 Asian (Tokyo) Session Opens at 12:00 GMT and closes at 9:00 GMT. 🇬🇧 UK (London) Session Opens at 7:00 GMT and closes at 16:00 GMT. 🇺🇸 US (New York) Session Opens at 12:00 GMT and closes at 21:00 GMT. Asian trading session is usually categorized by low trading volumes while UK and US sessions are categorized by high trading volumes. Personally, I trade the entire UK session and US opening and usually skip Australian and Asian sessions. There is a free technical indicator on TradingView that allows to underline trading sessions on a price chart. It is called "Market Sessions". Being added, it displays the market trading sessions. What trading sessions do you trade?
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
2
Understanding the ICT BREAKAWAY GAPIn this video I go through the ICT Breakaway Gap and how YOU can use it to your advantage. I include some tips and tricks with a real trade setup demonstration. The Breakaway Gap may have been an elusive concept to understand, but I present a simple way you can spot them on the chart and frame your trades around them. It is a powerful weapon that can be used to snag some awesome trades. Simple put, the Breakaway Gap is a gap that does not get traded into with the NEXT FEW CANDLES. Emphasis on the last part because price is fractal, and the best way to frame a trade with ICT's Concepts is by taking a few candles on the higher timeframe for your bias, and going to a lower timeframe to form your narrative, and either entering on that timeframe or even going to a lower timeframe for your entry. Hopefully this gives you some insight into one of the many concepts that ICT has bestowed upon the public. If you need clarification about the content, or you are still struggling with finding your groove as a trader and need personal guidance or mentorship, feel free to reach out to me via TradingView’s private message or on X. Happy trading and happy studying! - R2F
Education
by Road_2_Funded
4
Understanding LIQUIDITYIn this video I try to explain liquidity as it pertains to training in a simple manner. Liquidity are basically orders in the marketplace. Since trading is a zero-sum game, without liquidity, there is no trading. Simply put, If you wanted to BUY, then you would need someone to SELL to you, and vice versa. Smart Money has deep pockets and needs a large amount of liquidity to facilitate their positions. They want to be able to get in and our of their trades, as well as to be able to trade with capital that would be worth the reward. The largest pools of liquidity usually reside above swing highs and lows, and equal highs and lows (double/triple tops and bottoms). Support and Resistance ideologies dominate the market, and besides that, psychologically it makes sense to put stoplosses at such areas rather than at some random area within a range. There are also breakout traders who see price breaking out of an area as a sign of strength (or weakness if bearish) and they set their entries above/below these levels. This is how liquidity is "engineered" in the market and sentiment manipulated. These pools of liquidity can be seen as a magnet, drawing price to these levels, either to grab liquidity before reversing or continuing in its current direction. - R2F
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OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by Road_2_Funded
14
2U (Is e-education the future?) I stand before you to discuss the transformative power of e-education and its pivotal role in shaping the future of learning. As we navigate the dynamic landscape of education, e-learning emerges as a beacon of innovation, offering unprecedented opportunities for learners across the globe. In this digital era, e-education transcends geographical boundaries, providing accessibility to knowledge regardless of one's location. The future of learning lies in the integration of technology into education, fostering a culture of continuous and personalized learning experiences. Consider the vast potential of e-learning in reaching the global youth population. With an estimated 2.2 billion children worldwide, the digital realm offers a scalable solution to meet the diverse educational needs of this burgeoning demographic. E-education becomes a catalyst for inclusivity, breaking down barriers and ensuring that every child has the chance to access quality education. The e-tech era has ushered in a wave of innovation, offering interactive and engaging platforms that cater to varied learning styles. Virtual classrooms, online resources, and collaborative tools redefine the educational landscape, preparing students for the demands of the digital future. As we embrace the e-tech revolution, let us recognize the power it holds to democratize education. It empowers learners to chart their unique educational journeys, fostering a sense of ownership and curiosity. The future of e-learning promises a world where education is not confined to the classroom but extends beyond, seamlessly integrating into our daily lives. In conclusion, let us champion e-education as the harbinger of a brighter, more accessible future of learning. Together, let us strive to harness the potential of technology to shape a world where every child, regardless of their circumstances, can embark on a journey of discovery and knowledge. Thank you.
TLong
by TrojanBible
3
Learn What is FOREX Market. Trading Volumes & Market Participant Forex - foreign exchange market, is a location where international currencies are bought and sold by economic participants at various exchange rates. Forex market is the biggest market in the world, reaching on average 6 trillion dollars trading volumes daily. Forex market is a vital element for a global economy because it provides capital exchanges between the countries. The main market participants of forex market are central banks, commercial banks, commercial companies, hedge funds and investors. 🕰In order to grasp how big is that market, take a look what is happening on that just in 60 seconds: 📎Total transactions value reaches 3.52 billion US dollars. 📎 1.15 billion dollars of spot transactions. 📎 1.65 billion dollar of exchange swaps. 📎 Total transactions value involving USD reaches 3 billion US dollars. 📎 Total transactions value involving EURO reaches 1.1 billion US dollars. 📎 Just one single EUR/USD pair accumulates 812 million US dollars transactions value. It is hard to imagine how such big amounts are rolling with such a frequency and how insignificant are the orders of individual traders.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
1
Range Bar Chart, Line Chart & Candlestick Chart - Everything You Hey traders, In this post, we will discuss 3 most popular types of charts. We will discuss the advantages and disadvantages of each one, and you will decide what type is the most appropriate for you. 📈Line Chart. Line chart is the most common chart applied by analysts. Reading financial articles in different news outlets, I noticed that most of the time the authors apply line chart for the data representation. On a price chart, the only parameter that the one can set is a time period. Time period will define a time of a security closing price. The security closing prices overtime will serve as data points. These points will be connected with a continuous line. Line charts are applied for displaying an asset's price history, reducing the noise from less volatile times. Being simplistic, they can provide a general picture and market sentiment. However, they are considered to be insufficient for pattern recognition and in depth analysis. Above, a line chart is applied for analysis of a long-term trend on Gold. 📏Range Bar Chart. In contrast to a line chart, a range bar chart does not consider time horizon. The only parameter that the one can set is a price range. By the range, I mean a price interval where the price moves. A new bar will be formed only once the prices passes the desired range. Such a chart allows to completely ignore time variable, focusing only on price movement and hence reducing the market noise. The chart will plot new bars only when the market is volatile, and it will stagnate while the market is weak and consolidating. Accurately setting a desired price range, one can get multiple insights analyzing a range bar chart. In the example above, one range bar represents 10 pips price range on EURUSD. 🕯Candlestick Chart. The most popular chart among technicians and my personal favorite. ith just one single parameter - time period, the chart plots candlesticks. Each candlestick is formed as a desired time period passes. It contains an information about the opening price level, closing price, high and low of a selected time period. Candlestick chart is applied for pattern recognition and in-depth analysis. Its study unveils the behavior of the market participants and their actions at a desired time period. Each candle stick represents a price action within 4 hours on AUDUSD chart above. (time frame is 4H) Of course, each chart has its own pluses and minuses. Choosing its type, you should know exactly what information do you want to derive from the chart. What chart type do you prefer?
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
4
🧿How to be a Trader, not a Gambler⛔Hi. ✅Using technical analysis and fundamental analysis at the same time: By combining technical and fundamental analysis, you pay attention not only to the patterns and behavior of price action traders in the past, but also to the fundamental and economic factors that act as the driving engine of market movements (macroeconomics). Together, these two approaches provide greater ability to understand market fluctuations and also create a harmonious relationship between charts and economic factors active in the market, allowing you to determine more effective entry and exit points and make your decisions using Take a more comprehensive and principled view. ✅Mastery of a strategy A strategy for a trader is like a guide to a lost traveler. A trading style helps you stay on track and achieve your long-term goals. With the strategy in sensitive market conditions, you will not get confused and incur irreparable losses. You also analyze your transactions more accurately. There are different strategies in forex, but it is better to have a strategy that you completely trust and that is very efficient and profitable. ✅Accuracy of transactions with risk to reward greater than 1 : A gambler doesn't care when it's the right time to enter a trade. Sometimes the markets do not have the conditions to enter into the transaction and they do not give you a good reward for the risk. Once you have analyzed the market as a professional trader and your entry triggers are activated, you actually have to wait until you can implement the rules of capital management. In these cases, you should watch until the market gives you a risk to reward of 1 to 2 or 3 and the entry is allowed. ✅Capital management As a trader, it is necessary for you to have risk management in trading to preserve your capital. Not using capital management may empty your entire financial account. Gamblers do not care about capital management and they may invest their entire assets in one trade. Therefore, it is better to determine the amount of your loss in each trade and exit when the trade does not go according to your expectations. Of course, loss is an inseparable part of the trading system; If the loss is small, a lesson will be learned from it and it will be helpful in the future. 🔔In the end, regardless of the above, like a gambler, your percentage of success versus loss is 50-50 in each trade, but if you follow the above, you can increase your win-to-loss percentage. __ _______ _____ _________ _______ ______ ______ ______ ______ _____ _________ ________ ❤️If this text was useful for you, please like it and share it with your friends
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by CobraVanguard
Happy New Year 2024| Learn Our Methods | Read Description|Happy New Year Everyone 2024: Let's first talk about CHFJPY then we will talk about how you can improve and learn some tips. CHFJPY in last six or seven months price overbought heavily due to JPY poor performance and government's zero intention to interfere in the market. However, many reports suggests that JPY will likely to be rebound in first quarter of 2024 in this case we can see a strong shift in price characteristics. Our first entry indicates, that we should expect price to continue the bearish momentum and drop from current area of the price. However, as we will having NFP in the first week of the month, it is likely to see some unexpected movement in the market. Second entry, is when price fill the gaps in the market and then drop smoothly, we will keep you updated. We want all of you to succeed in the forex or commodities trading. Here how you can improve: Firstly find one or two pairs that suits you: meaning if you focus on every single instruments available to trade in the market, you will never succeed instead focus on one or two pairs and master them, know how and when these pairs move, what factors influence them in the market and trade swing highs and lows. Secondly, use longer time frames to have a better vision, have a longer vision which will help you catch the big moves, yes, it is time consuming but if you are beginner then focus first in this and then along the way you will learn intraday trading. Lastly, learn more about consolidation, accumulation and distribution: before the big reversal, price first will consolidate then accumulate and distribute, you should be looking to enter in phase of accumulation and take every enter when price consolidate which leads to a breakout. If you learn above information in details and practice, your chances of becoming a successful trade increase. There is no overnight success, it is all hard work, if you believe in your self and focus on above things you will one day be proud of yourself. Happy New Year and Trade Safe 2024. We wish all of you all the best. Team Setupsfx_
Education
by Setupsfx_
11
Definitive guide to starting day tradingIntroduction: Day trading is a controversial modality that involves short-term operations on the stock market. Many people are interested in this way of investing, but they do not know that it requires a very rigorous behavior and discipline. In addition, there are several myths and truths about day trading that need to be clarified. One of them is that large corporations do not make intra-day trades. Does that mean that day trading does not work? To answer this question, it is necessary to understand a little about how the financial market works. There are different types of markets, such as the derivatives market and the spot market. Spot market: It is the most popular among stock market investors, working in a relatively simpler way than other markets. The spot market represents the operations of buying and selling shares at the prices determined by the supply and demand of the moment. Derivatives market: Derivatives are financial instruments whose prices are linked to another instrument that serves as their reference. For example, the oil futures market is a type of derivative whose price depends on the transactions carried out in the spot oil market, its reference instrument. Within the derivatives market, we have: Futures market: It is the environment where futures contracts are traded, a type of derivative. In a few words, futures contracts represent the commitment to buy or sell a certain amount of a certain good on a future date and at a pre-defined price. Forward market : Is a negotiation in which two parties - buyer and seller - assume a long-term commitment. Thus, it is determined that today a number X of shares (for example) will be bought, and that the payment will take place on a future date. Options market: Are investments that guarantee the investor the right, for a determined period, to buy or sell an asset - usually shares - for a pre-determined value on a specific date in the future. It is a type of derivative, because the price of the options varies according to the price of the assets to which they are linked. The futures market is one where contracts are traded that establish the price and the date of delivery of a certain asset in the future. For example, a coffee producer can sell a coffee futures contract to guarantee their profit and protect themselves from price fluctuations in the spot market. The spot market is one where assets are traded now, such as the shares of a company. The futures market is one of the best markets for day trading, as it offers higher liquidity, leverage and volatility. Large corporations, however, do not usually do day trading in the futures market, as they have other goals and strategies. They use the futures market to hedge, that is, to protect themselves from the risks of the spot market. They also have a very large volume of operations, making it difficult to enter and exit the market quickly. In addition, they need to follow rules and regulations that limit their investment possibilities. This does not mean that day trading does not work for large corporations. They can do day trading in other ways, such as using the high-frequency market. This market is based on algorithms and automated systems that perform thousands of operations in fractions of seconds. This way, they can take advantage of the opportunities and fluctuations of the market with greater efficiency and speed. Therefore, day trading is a modality that works for different profiles of investors, as long as they know how to use the appropriate tools and methods. Day trading is not an investment, but rather a form of speculating in the financial market. It involves risks, but it can also bring good results for those who have knowledge, discipline and emotional control. In a centralized market, all offers to buy and sell securities are directed to the same trading channel. In this system, the observable prices of different assets are the only prices available to the public. A notable example is the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), where all buy orders are matched with sell orders in a central exchange. This provides greater security to market participants, as transactions are carried out in an organized and regulated environment. Let’s first understand how the centralized market works : The centralized market is a way of organizing financial transactions in a single trading channel, where the prices of the assets are public and regulated. This type of market offers greater security to investors, by having various defense mechanisms that prevent fraud, defaults and extreme fluctuations. In this text, I explain how the centralized market works and what are some examples of defense mechanisms in the main stock exchanges in the world. What is the centralized market and how does it differ from other types of market? In a centralized market, all offers to buy and sell securities are directed to the same trading channel. In it, the offers related to the same asset are exposed to acceptance and competition by all parties authorized to trade in the system. In other words, in the centralized market of the stock exchange, the observable prices of different assets are the only prices available to the public. A well-known example is the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), where all bids (buy orders) are matched with sales (sell orders) in a central exchange. This provides greater security to market participants, as transactions are carried out in an organized and regulated environment. A centralized market differs from other types of market, such as the decentralized market or the over-the-counter market. In a decentralized market, there is no single trading channel, but rather several locations where offers can be made. For example, the foreign exchange market (forex) is a decentralized market, where participants can trade currencies among themselves on different platforms, banks or brokers. In an over-the-counter market, transactions are made directly between the parties, without the intervention of an exchange or an intermediary. For example, the derivatives market is an over-the-counter market, where participants can trade customized contracts that are not standardized or regulated. These types of market can offer greater flexibility and privacy, but also involve higher risks and costs. What are some examples of defense mechanisms in stock exchanges? Stock exchanges are institutions that manage the centralized market and that establish the rules and procedures for trading. They are also responsible for ensuring the security and efficiency of transactions, using various defense mechanisms that protect investors from possible losses. Some of these mechanisms are: Central Clearing: Or clearing House is an intermediary entity that acts between buyers and sellers in the financial market. Its role is to facilitate trading and ensure the integrity of transactions. It records, clears, manages risk and settlement of operations, requiring participants to deposit margins (guarantees) to cover possible losses. This reduces systemic risk. An example of an exchange that uses central clearing is the CME Futures (Chicago Mercantile Exchange), which trades futures and options contracts on commodities, indices, currencies and other assets. Price Limits: Are maximum and minimum ranges that asset prices can vary in a given period. They prevent extreme fluctuations that harm investors or the functioning of the market. If the price of an asset reaches the upper or lower limit, trading is suspended or limited until the price returns to an acceptable level. An example of an exchange that uses price limits is the CME Futures, which sets daily limits for the prices of futures contracts. Circuit Breakers: Are mechanisms that temporarily interrupt trading in case of excessive volatility. They aim to avoid situations of panic, manipulation or imbalance in the market, giving time for investors to reassess their positions and make more rational decisions. Circuit breakers can be triggered by different criteria, such as the fall or rise of an index, an asset or a sector. An example of an exchange that uses circuit breakers is the NYSE, which suspends trading if the S&P 500 index falls or rises more than a certain percentage in a day. Opening and Closing Auctions: Are moments when operations start and end on the stock exchange. They help to stabilize the prices of the assets, by concentrating the demand and supply in a short time interval. During the auctions, buy and sell orders are recorded, but not executed, until a balance price is found that satisfies the largest number of participants. An example of an exchange that uses opening and closing auctions is the NYSE, which holds the auctions at 9:30 am and 4 pm (New York time). Market Makers: Market makers (or market makers) are agents who commit to buy and sell certain assets at any time, providing liquidity and continuity to the market. They make money from the difference between the buy and sell prices (spread) and from the commissions they receive. They also help to reduce volatility and improve price formation. An example of an exchange that uses market makers is the NASDAQ, which is fully electronic and has more than 500 market makers who trade more than 3,000 stocks. Electronic System: The electronic system is a way of carrying out financial transactions through digital platforms, without the need for a physical location or a human intermediary. This allows greater speed and efficiency in operations, as well as reducing costs and errors. The electronic system also facilitates access and participation of different types of investors, from institutional to individual. An example of an exchange that uses the electronic system is the NASDAQ, which was the first stock exchange to operate fully online, since 1971. Margins : are values deposited by participants to cover possible losses in futures contracts. They help to reduce the risk of default and ensure the integrity of the market. The CME futures contracts have specific guarantees, which vary according to the traded asset, I will explain more later. The price limits are maximum and minimum ranges that the prices of the assets can vary in a given period. They prevent extreme fluctuations that harm investors or the functioning of the market. If the price of an asset reaches the upper or lower limit, trading is suspended or limited until the price returns to an acceptable level. The CME establishes two types of price limits: Daily Price Fluctuation Limit: Prevents offers with prices that vary too much in relation to the previous day’s settlement price. Each contract has an upper (high) and a lower (low) limit. Fluctuation Limit: At the opening, there are fluctuation limits for each expiration month. If exceeded, trading is temporarily suspended. These mechanisms protect price formation and prevent extreme movements. The New York Stock Exchange does not use margins like the CME futures contracts. On the spot market, assets are not subject to price limits. Instead, it uses a "circuit breaker", which temporarily suspends trading when prices fall. The circuit breaker is based on the S&P 500 spot index. It also uses opening and closing auctions, times when trading begins and ends on the exchange. These help stabilize security prices by concentrating demand and supply in a short period of time. During the auctions, buy and sell orders are registered, but not executed, until an equilibrium price is found that satisfies the largest number of participants. Auctions take place at 9.30am and 4pm (New York time). The technology exchange mainly brings together shares in technology companies. It has no daily price limits, but uses other mechanisms to safeguard the individual behavior of securities, such as auction tunnels and rejection. It is completely electronic and has more than 500 market makers trading more than 3,000 shares. Market makers are agents who commit to buying and selling certain securities at any time, providing liquidity and continuity to the market. They make money from the difference between the buying and selling prices (spread) and from the commissions they receive. They also help to reduce volatility and improve price formation. Explaining the stock exchange auctions The stock auction is a protection mechanism of the Stock Exchange that occurs when there is a sudden change in the price of an asset. It aims to prevent large fluctuations in prices, protecting investors. In this text, I will explain how the stock auction works and what are its benefits and challenges. What is the stock auction and how does it work? The stock auction is a process that happens when the price of an asset undergoes a significant change in relation to its previous value. This change can be caused by various factors, such as news, events, rumors or speculations. During the auction, the shares leave the traditional trading floor and continue to be traded in a closed system of buy and sell offers. In this system, the orders are recorded, but not executed, until a balance price is found that satisfies the largest number of participants. The auction lasts a few minutes, but can be extended if there is a lot of demand or supply. The auction ends when the balance price is found or when the time limit is reached. The stock auction is also important because it allows investors to have time to evaluate their decisions and trade their assets with more confidence. It also prevents the prices from being manipulated or distorted by malicious agents, or by irrational movements of the market. In addition, it ensures that transactions are carried out in a transparent and secure manner, following the rules and norms of the Stock Exchange. What are the main types of auctions on the Stock Exchange? There are three main types of auctions on the Stock Exchange, which occur at different times of the trading session. They are: Extraordinary Auction: Activated in case of appreciation or depreciation from 10% in relation to the closing price of the previous day, or to the opening price of the day. This type of auction is used to protect investors from sudden changes in the prices of the assets, which can be caused by external or internal factors. For example, if a company announces a financial result much above or below the expected, the price of its share can rise or fall very quickly, generating an extraordinary auction. Pre-Opening Auction : It happens 15 minutes before the opening of the trading session. This type of auction is used to test the prices and the formation of the assets at the beginning of the trading session, considering the information and expectations of the market. For example, if there is relevant news about the economy or politics, the price of the assets can change before the opening of the trading session, generating a pre-opening auction. Closing Auction: In the last five minutes of the trading session. This type of auction is used to determine the closing price of the assets, used as a reference for the next day. Only the shares that are part of some index of the Stock Exchange can participate in this auction. For example, if a share is part of the S&P 500, it participates in the closing auction, which defines its final price of the day. You already know how the centralized market works, where all buy and sell offers are directed to the same trading channel. This prevents the large participants from manipulating the prices of the assets as they please. This is because the market dynamics ensure that the game is fair to everyone. But how to understand this market dynamics? How to know what other participants are doing and how it affects the prices of the assets? For this, you need to know the market microstructure, which is the study of the interactions between buyers and sellers, influencing the price formation of the assets. For traders, especially scalpers, understanding the microstructure is essential. Here are the main points about the market microstructure: Efficient Market: The efficient market theory suggests that all available information about assets is already reflected in the prices. This hypothesis does not consider human complexity and subjective interpretation of information. In practice, some participants have privileged access to information and use specific techniques. This creates momentary imbalances in supply/demand, generating price movements. Market Reality: To understand the market reality, you need to observe three essential tools: the order book, the aggressive volume and the times and sales. We explain what they are and how they relate to the market microstructure. Why are they so important? To understand the dynamics of the financial market, you need to know three essential tools: the order book, the DOM (Depth of Market) and the volume of the trade history. We explain what these tools are, how they work and how they can help you in your operations. Order Book: Is a record of all buy and sell orders of a financial asset at a given time. It allows you to track the liquidity of the market, that is, the ease of buying or selling a share. The order book shows information such as the name of the asset, the best buy and sell price, and the traded volume. Each asset has its own book, updated as new orders arrive. The order book helps to identify the supply and demand of the asset, as well as the support and resistance levels. For example, if there are many buy orders at a certain price, this means there is a strong demand for the asset, which can make the price rise. The opposite also applies to sell orders. The order book is essential for Tape Reading, which is a technique that analyzes the flow of aggression and liquidity in the market. DOM (Depth of Market): Is an advanced version of the order book. It shows the depth of the orders at each price level, that is, how many orders there are in each price range. It allows you to visualize the available liquidity and the aggressors, the participants who execute the orders in the market. The DOM helps to identify the trend and the strength of the market. For example, if there are more aggressive buyers than sellers, this means there is a positive flow of money, which can make the price rise. The opposite also applies to aggressive sellers. Volume of Trade History : Is the record of all transactions carried out on the stock exchange for a given asset. It shows the price, quantity, time and direction of each transaction. The volume of trade history helps to understand the dynamics of the market, as it reveals the intensity and speed of trading. It can also reveal important patterns and trends, such as breakouts, reversals and consolidations. These tools are crucial for traders and investors who want to have a broader and deeper view of the financial market. They allow you to track the liquidity, supply, demand, trend and intensity of the market, as well as identify opportunities and risks in your operations. With them, you can make more informed and assertive decisions, increasing your chances of success. bid/ask is the difference between the offer price and the sale price of the asset. The ESZ22 is a derivative of the S&P 500 index that expires in December 2022. The order book of the ESZ22 is a record of all buy and sell orders for this future operation at a given time. Each value level in the book represents a buy or sell offer for a certain number of derivatives. but before we understand how the futures contract works: the expiration letters ES= asset code, Z expiration month letter and 22= 2022 Example of the expiration months of the contracts: January (F) February (G) March (H) April (J) May (K) June (M) July (N) August (Q) September(U) October (V) November (X) December (Z). The S&P futures contract uses only 4 months, having a duration of 3 months each contract, using the letters H, M, U and Z and between one expiration and another there is something called liquidity rollover: Why does this happen? This happens because large corporations are always building positions in futures contracts, since the main objective of a futures contract is hedging, so consequently there are large positions being made in these futures markets. Imagine that you have a portfolio of stocks or cryptocurrencies, but unlike the futures market, these assets do not expire, they stay there until you get rid of them, now imagine that you paid a price for these assets, then your position will be where your participation in that paper was made. Unlike you, large corporations, investment banks, insiders in large companies have large buy or sell positions in papers, and also in futures contracts, but these futures contracts expire every 3 months in the American market. Every expiration happens always on Friday of the third week of the month of the letter that is in force, but the dismantling of positions takes a week due to the number of participants or the number of lots that are positioned. In the example of the S&P the ESZ2 (for rithimic data) or EPZ22 (for CQG Continuum data) are this week migrating the positions, opportunities during the rollover are bad due to the toxic flow that enters these 2 contracts, since the 2 are in operations, what happens is that for sure you will lose money, energy or time. The liquidity rollover in the American assets affects the world so much that European assets such as Dax and euro stoxx 50 futures contracts roll over the liquidity at the same time, which can harm operations even in markets that are not to expire like ibovespa futures or dollar futures.(excerpt from my article on liquidity rollover that is written in Portuguese), usually the recommended is to stay away from this week: Margin and construction of the current order book Each tick is the smallest possible variation in the value of the derivative. In the case of the ESZ2, each tick is equal to 0.25 points, equivalent to 12.50 dollars per derivative. The volume consumption occurs when an order is executed in the market. When a buy order is executed, it consumes the volume of the sell offers in the book. example of a scenario where the market was with spread 4571.75/4571.50 and walked to 4570.50 displacing consuming all price levels that follow. the lot consumed becomes volume and goes to the trade history. That is, it becomes volume in the market. The Time and Sales is a record of all the transactions performed on a given financial asset at a given time. It is used in technical analysis to understand the market behavior. It can be accessed through a trading platform displayed in a separate window. The window shows a list of all the transactions performed for a given asset in a tabular format. Each main component of the Time and Sales is organized into columns, such as date/time, value/change and volume. The data lines are often color-coded to indicate whether the transaction occurred on the bid or ask. Margin and construction of the current order book The bid-ask spread of a financial asset is the difference between the offer price and the sale price. The first is the maximum value that a buyer pays for an asset, while the second is the minimum value that a seller accepts to sell the same asset. This information is very important in the price table, as it indicates how close or far the prices are. The smaller the bid-ask spread, the more trades occur and the orders are executed faster. The way the market is made and developed is the reason why large players do not do day trading, because, in fact, they do not need to do that, because their priority is others. We will understand what priority would be: Priority is a term that refers to something that has more importance or relevance than another. In the area of medicine, priority is a situation that requires preferential or anticipatory attention. For example, heart attack, stroke and trauma are considered priority situations. On the other hand, emergency is when there is a critical situation, with the occurrence of great danger and can become an urgency if not properly attended. Dislocations, sprains, severe fractures and dengue are considered emergencies. The order book is a record of all buy and sell orders for a given financial asset at a given time. Each value level in the book represents a buy or sell offer for a certain number of derivatives. Each tick is the smallest possible variation in the value of the derivative. In the case of the ESZ2, each tick is equal to 0.25 points, equivalent to 12.50 dollars per derivative. The volume consumption occurs when an order is executed in the market. When a buy order is executed, it consumes the liquidity of the sell offers in the book. Likewise, when a sell order is executed, it consumes the liquidity of the buy offers in the book. The Time and Sales is a record of all transactions performed on a given financial asset at a given time. It allows investors to track the liquidity of the market and the need for a large company to lock their positions on the stock exchange is usually based on factors such as volatility, movement and investment strategy. When an event or catastrophe occurs, the need can increase significantly, depending on the nature of the event and the impact it can have on the stock exchange. For example, a natural disaster can affect the production of a company, which can lead to a drop in the value of the shares. In this case, a large company may need to act quickly to protect their positions on the stock exchange. And within this need, it has to adapt to the limitations of the exchange's security mechanisms. Knowing your place in the stock market: My size and the size of a large corporation in the stock market are totally different, because I can at any time open my terminal and execute a transaction in the current bid/ask spread, but a large player cannot do that and if he, for example, needs to act with 5000 S&P 500 contracts he would need to move the value until he completes all his necessary transactions. The comparison of a price maker and a common investor is like comparing an Antonov plane with a person. Price makers and market makers may face limitations when entering the bid/ask due to their size. When a large investor enters the exchange, he can have a significant impact on the value of the financial asset. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) of the United States has strict regulations to prevent manipulation of the exchange. The CFTC closely monitors the activities of the exchange and can take legal action against anyone who violates its rules. Imagine the difficulty of a giant aircraft carrier passing through a canal, everyone will notice that he is there, so if he wanted to hide it would be difficult to go unnoticed. That’s how a giant in the market is. Price makers and market makers use various strategies to enter the stock market without facing legal issues of price manipulation. One of the most common strategies is trade distribution, which involves splitting a large trade into several smaller trades and distributing these trades at different price levels in the order book. This helps to avoid the price of the financial asset being significantly affected by a single trade. Another common strategy is algorithmic trading, which involves using algorithms to execute trades automatically based on specific conditions of the stock market. These algorithms can be programmed to execute trades at specific times or in response to certain events of the stock market. Moreover, big players can also use other strategies, such as high-frequency trading and statistical arbitrage, to enter the stock market without attracting much attention. Trade distribution is a strategy used by price makers and market makers to avoid significant impacts on the price of the financial asset. It involves splitting a large trade into several smaller trades and distributing these trades at different price levels in the order book. This helps to avoid the price of the financial asset being significantly affected by a single order. Another common strategy is the use of iceberg trades , which are large trades split into several smaller and hidden trades, usually by using an automated program, aiming to conceal the actual amount of the trade. The term “iceberg” comes from the fact that the visible parts are only the “tip of the iceberg” given the larger amount of limit trades ready to be placed. They are also sometimes referred to as reserve trades. Big player is can also use other strategies, such as algorithmic trading, high-frequency trading and statistical arbitrage, to enter the financial activity without attracting much attention. Price makers and market makers can do day trading, but they usually focus on long-term investment strategies. This is because day trading involves buying and selling financial assets in a short period, usually within the same day. As big players usually trade large volumes of capital, they may have difficulty entering and exiting the activity quickly without significantly affecting the valuation of the financial asset. Why long term? Precisely due to the limitations that exist in the activity. The stock activity is already more attractive for long-term positioning, as it has many lots per valuation levels, but the protection auctions in the NYSE stock market are a mechanism that aims to prevent the valuations of the stocks from suffering excessive variations in a short period. They are triggered when the stocks reach a fluctuation limit, being a maximum or minimum variation in relation to the closing valuation of the previous day. When this happens, the negotiations are suspended for a few minutes and the transactions are grouped into an auction, which determines the new equilibrium valuation of the stocks. This process aims to protect investors from sudden movements of the activity and ensure the liquidity and transparency of the operations. The maximum fluctuation of a paper per day depends on the type and liquidity of the stock. The NYSE establishes different levels of fluctuation limits for each stock, which can vary from 5% to 20%. These limits are adjusted periodically according to the conditions of the activity. You can consult the values of the fluctuation limits on the NYSE website or in the file “Daily Trading Fluctuation”. So the fluctuation ceases to be a concern for the big players where they focus on the long term, thus ceasing to worry about the microstructure of activity to worry about more complex issues such as macroeconomics, and macro-founded information. In addition, day trading has become competitive every day that passes, as big players in addition to the long term also manage to benefit from day trading using high-frequency algorithms entering and exiting the operation quickly. Why is the complexity of Day trading so high? We understand that today it involves several variables that we need to understand before we can start working with it. The first of these variables is a number of participants, of the market, these participants are divided into some profiles. They are classified between: Individual investors are ordinary people who allocate their own money in the market. They can buy papers, bonds and other financial products through intermediaries of values. Legal entity investors are companies that allocate their money in the market. They can buy papers, bonds and other financial products through intermediaries of values. Investment funds are groups of investors who pool their money to buy papers, bonds and other financial products. They are managed by professionals from the financial market and charge a fee for the services provided. Investment clubs are groups formed by individuals who join together to invest jointly in the market. They are managed by their own club members with a maximum limit of 150 participants. Investment robots are software that use algorithms to make investment decisions in the market. They are created by companies specialized in financial technology and can be used by individuals or legal entities. In other words, there is not just one type of profile that is behind the market. Now imagine NYSE: according to B3, the Brazilian trading, in 2022 there were about 5 million individual investors in Brazil, representing 1.4% of the total investors in the NYSE. Assuming that the proportion of individual investors in the NYSE was similar to that of Brazil, it estimated that the total number of investors in the NYSE was about 357 million. Of this total, about 74% were institutional (funds, clubs, companies, etc.) and 26% were individual (individuals and legal entities). Therefore, it estimated that the number of institutional investors in the NYSE was about 264 million and the number of individual investors was about 93 million. Nasdaq: in 2022 there were about 4,000 companies listed on the trading, with a total market value of more than 17 trillion dollars. It did not find specific data on the number of investors by type in the Nasdaq, but according to an from CNN Brasil, in 2020 about 55% of adults in the United States invested in the stock market. Considering that the adult population of the United States was about 209 million in 2020, it estimated that the number of individual investors in the Nasdaq was about 115 million. It did not find data on the participation of institutional investors in the Nasdaq, but assumed that it was similar to that of the NYSE, and estimated that the number of institutional investors in the Nasdaq was about 230 million. CME Group: In 2022 there were more than 10,000 products traded on the trading, with an average daily volume of more than 19 million contracts. It did not find specific data on the number of investors by type in the CME Group, but according to a from the own trading, in 2020 about 35% of the traded volume came from North America, 28% from Europe, Middle East and Africa, 25% from Asia-Pacific and 12% from Latin America. Estimating that the total number of investors in the CME Group was about 54 million, being about 19 million in North America, 15 million in Europe, Middle East and Africa, 13 million in Asia-Pacific and 6 million in Latin America. That is, there are several participants with different types of decision making. Fundamental analysis: is a way of evaluating the financial health and growth potential of a company, using indicators such as profit, revenue, debt, equity, etc. This study will identify the intrinsic value of a stock and compare it with its market price, to find buying or selling opportunities1. P/E, ROE, revenue: are some of the indicators used in fundamental analysis. P/E/ROE: P/E is the acronym for price/earnings, which represents the ratio between the price of the stock and the earnings per share. ROE is the acronym for return on equity, which represents the profitability of the investment in a company. Revenue is the total value of the sales of a company in a given period. Correlation: is a statistical measure that indicates the degree of relationship between two variables. In the financial market, correlation can be used to analyze the dependence between two assets, such as stocks, currencies, commodities, etc. Correlation ranges from -1 to 1, where -1 indicates a perfect inverse relationship, 0 indicates a null relationship and 1 indicates a perfect direct relationship. Hedge: is a strategy that consists of performing a financial operation that aims to protect an asset or a liability against the variations of quotation, interest rate, exchange rate, etc. The hedge works as an insurance, that reduces the risk of losses in case of adverse fluctuations of the market. Arbitrage: is a strategy that consists of taking advantage of the differences in quotation of the same asset or of equivalent assets in different markets, or moments. Arbitrage aims to obtain profits without risk, buying the cheaper asset and selling the more expensive one simultaneously. Lock: is a strategy that consists of setting up a combination of operations with options, aiming to limit the risk and the return of the operation. A lock can be bullish or bearish, depending on the expectation of the investor about the variation of the quotation of the underlying asset. Based on greeks options: is a strategy that consists of using the greeks of the options to evaluate the risks and the opportunities of the operations with options. The greeks are measures derived from the pricing model of the options, that indicate the sensitivity of the options to the variables of the market, such as quotation of the underlying asset, time until expiration, volatility, interest rate, etc. The main greeks are delta, gamma, theta, vega and rho. Technical analysis (trend follower Elliot): is a method of studying the behavior of the quotations of the stocks, using graphical and statistical tools. This method aims to identify patterns, trends, supports, resistances and other signals that indicate the future movements of the market. One of the techniques of this method is the Elliot wave theory, which proposes that the movements of the quotations follow a fractal pattern composed of impulsive and corrective waves. Technical analysis (with indicators): is a way of analyzing the behavior of the stock prices, using graphical and statistical tools. This way aims to identify patterns, trends, supports, resistances and other signals that indicate the future movements of the market. One of the features of this way are the technical indicators, being mathematical formulas applied to the prices or the volumes of the stocks. Some examples of technical indicators are moving averages, Bollinger bands, MACD, RSI, stochastic, etc. Technical analysis (mean reversion): is a way of studying the behavior of the stock prices, using graphical and statistical tools. This way aims to identify patterns, trends, supports, resistances and other signals that indicate the future movements of the market. One of the strategies of this way is the mean reversion, which consists of using the moving averages as a reference to identify entry and exit points of the operations. The idea is that the prices tend to return to the mean after moving away from it. Technical analysis (price action): is a way of studying the behavior of the prices of the stocks, using graphical and statistical tools. This approach will identify patterns, trends, supports, resistences and other signals that indicate the future movements of the market. One of the techniques of this analysis is the price action, which consists of using only the prices as a source of information, without resorting to technical or fundamental indicators. The price action is based on the reading of the candles, being graphical representations of the opening, closing, high and low prices of each period. For example, a bullish candle indicates that the price closed above the opening price, showing the strength of the buyers. Technical analysis (patterns of nature) is the use of numerical or geometrical sequences inspired by nature, such as the Fibonacci sequence, being a series of numbers that follows the rule that each term is the sum of the previous two. The Fibonacci sequence can be used to draw retracement and extension levels of the prices, which can work as reversal or continuation points of the trends. For example, if the price of a stock falls from R$ 100 to R$ 80, and then rises to R$ 89, it is making a retracement of 50% of the previous movement, which is one of the Fibonacci levels. Besides the techniques based on charts, there are other ways of analyzing the financial market, such as the patterns and the seasonal behavior. These phenomena affect the fluctuation of the values of the stocks, related to the periodicity or the seasonality of some economic, social or natural factors. They are repetitive and predictable movements of these assets, with variable durations, from daily to annual. The seasonal variation is the fluctuation of them according to seasonal factors, such as weather, holidays, events, etc. For example, some may perform better in the summer than in the winter, or in certain months of the year. A famous case is the January effect, being the tendency of the stocks to rise more in that month than in the others. Cycles and seasonality: is the agricultural market, which trades agricultural commodities, such as grains, coffee, sugar, cotton, etc. The agricultural market is influenced by several factors, such as supply and demand, weather, pests, public policies, exchange rate, etc. Investors can operate in the agricultural market through futures contracts or options of these commodities. For example, if the investor believes that the price of coffee will rise in the next month, he can buy a coffee futures contract and profit from the difference between the purchase price and the sale price. Quantitative analysis: is a way of evaluating the performance and risk of the financial assets, using mathematical and statistical models. Quantitative analysis aims to identify patterns and anomalies in the historical or current data of the assets, to create investment strategies based on algorithms. Quantitative analysis can involve the use of artificial intelligence, machine learning or big data. For example, a quantitative analyst can use a linear regression model to estimate the relationship between the price of a stock and its earnings per share, and use this information to decide whether it is worth buying or selling that stock. Tape reading: is a way of following the flow of orders of the financial market in real time, using tools such as the order book and the times and trades. The tape reading aims to identify the intentions of the big players of the market, such as banks, funds and financial institutions, to follow the same direction or anticipate the changes of trend. For example, if the tape reading shows a large volume of buy orders of a stock at a certain price, this may indicate that there is a strong demand for that stock, and that its price tends to rise. Macroeconomic analysis: is a way of analyzing the national and international economic scenarios, using indicators such as GDP, inflation, interest rate, exchange rate, trade balance, etc. Macroeconomic analysis aims to understand the impacts of economic policies and geopolitical events on the financial market and the sectors of the economy. For example, if the interest rate rises, this can negatively affect consumption, investment and economic growth, and consequently, the performance of the stocks of companies linked to these sectors. Conclusion: The financial market is not for amateurs, nor for aspirants. There is no point in taking away the merit of those who operate and do day trading, because that does not make you better than them. Those who are consistent in the stock market are because they understand the participants, the microstructure and the variables of the market. Because all this is only 10% of the trader’s formation in the financial market, because he still needs to combine all this with an intelligent decision making where he divides it into Traders are athletes of the mind, who need to have discipline and psychological strength to operate and work with this every day. That’s why nature selects only the best, and they don’t have time to waste. Do you want to be one of them? Study, seek knowledge, learn the environment in which you operate, practice. A market professional takes years to evolve, that’s why day trading will never have pity on you. If the great minds of the world are in the market with the best technology available, why would you, who are a beginner, overcome them all? With time, the trader will have gone through psychological evolutions over time, so keep firm and always seek knowledge. For this, you need to know your size, know that you don’t move the price, know your place in the market. Also know that the market changes, and you should always swim towards the market and never against it.
NASDAQ:TSLAEducation
by Victoredbr
2
The Good the Bad and the Neutral scenarioLet's all wish a happy new year! Let's all see the ads for the super products don't worry if you don't .. the company knows how to do it! * Let's remember those in our local area who need to sell their products (or online) and buy some (good scenario) * Let's see more ads without buying nothing (Bad scenario for now) * Let's see what our favourite people do with smoke signals until the market gives us the up or down signal If you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. Thanks for reading!
NASDAQ:META
by GP101
What is the ( Flag pattern) ?A flag pattern is a technical analysis chart pattern that can be observed in the price charts of financial assets, such as stocks, currencies, or commodities. It is considered a continuation pattern, indicating that the prevailing trend is likely to continue after a brief consolidation or pause. The flag pattern is formed by two main components: Flagpole : The first part of the pattern is a strong and sharp price movement, either upward (bullish flag) or downward (bearish flag). This initial move is known as the flagpole and represents a strong surge in buying or selling activity. Flag : Following the flagpole, there is a period of consolidation where prices move in a rectangular or parallelogram-shaped pattern. This consolidation phase is referred to as the flag. The flag is characterized by decreasing volatility and typically forms a channel or a rectangle. There are two types of flag patterns: Bullish Flag: The flagpole is an upward price movement, and the flag is a downward-sloping consolidation. This pattern suggests a temporary pause in the upward trend before a potential continuation. Bearish Flag: The flagpole is a downward price movement, and the flag is an upward-sloping consolidation. This pattern indicates a temporary pause in the downward trend before a potential continuation. Traders often look for flag patterns as they may provide insights into the market sentiment and offer potential trading opportunities. The breakout direction (up or down) from the flag pattern is considered a signal for the potential future price movement. However, it's important to note that not all flags result in a continuation of the previous trend, and traders often use other technical indicators and analysis to confirm signals and manage risk.
BINANCE:BTCUSDEducation
by CryptoSphereTG_1
TSLA - trade ideaBeen a while since I posted an idea here, it doesnt matter what Ideas I post, it is more important to learn trade psychology and understand your risk reward, you can enter 1,000 trades with bad risk reward and never win. Or you can step into the arena, get beaten up enough times to finally snap out of it and find your way. Why risk it to make the biscuit?! TESLA Support resistance trades, no trader has the golden ticket, find your way! Funded 1.7m with APEX and TakeProfit trader, after blood sweat and tears, it may not be much to many but to me its lifechanging. Lets get it!!!!
NASDAQ:TSLA
by Verum0
Essential Tips for Newbie Day Traders: Forex and Gold Trading Entering the world of day trading can be both exciting and daunting, especially for those who are new to the game. This article aims to provide simple yet valuable recommendations for beginner day traders specifically focusing on forex and gold trading. 💼💰🚀 1. Educate Yourself: Before diving into day trading, it is crucial to understand the intricacies of the forex and gold markets. Take the time to learn about the basic terminology, technical analysis, fundamental analysis, and different trading strategies. Knowledge is your best weapon in this realm. 📚✍️📈 Start by reading books, attending webinars or courses, or even joining online trading communities to gain insight into successful day trading techniques. 2. Practice with a Demo Account: To avoid unnecessary losses, it is highly recommended to practice trading using a demo account. This allows you to gain hands-on experience without the risk of losing real money. Take the time to experiment with different strategies and understand how the market works. 📊📝💡 Tradingview paper trading offers demo accounts where you can simulate real trading scenarios and test your skills. 3. Develop a Trading Plan: A well-defined trading plan is essential for any day trader. Specify your goals, risk tolerance, and trading style. Determine the maximum amount you are willing to risk per trade and set realistic profit targets. Stick to your plan and avoid impulsive decisions. 📝🎯💼 Example: Decide on a risk-to-reward ratio, such as 1:2, which means you are willing to risk $1 to potentially earn $2, and only take trades that meet this criteria. 4. Manage Your Risks: Risk management is a crucial aspect of day trading. Never risk more than you can afford to lose and always set stop-loss orders to limit potential losses. It is important to maintain a disciplined approach to preserve your capital. 💪💸📉 Example: Let's say you have $10,000 as your trading capital. Set a maximum loss limit per trade, such as $200, and ensure your stop-loss order reflects this limit. 5. Keep Up with Market News: Stay informed about global events, economic indicators, and market news that can impact the forex and gold markets. Develop a routine of reading relevant financial news and reports to stay ahead of market trends. 🌍📰💼 Important events like central bank announcements, political developments, or changes in commodity prices can significantly affect currency and gold prices. Tradingview nicely displays the coming news on the horizontal scale of a price shart. Just click on a circle and you will see the coming related events. In conclusion, starting out as a newbie day trader in the forex and gold markets requires a combination of knowledge, practice, discipline, and risk management. By following these simple recommendations, you will be better equipped to navigate the markets and enhance your chances of success in day trading. 💪📊✨
Education
by AnabelSignals
1
BITCOIN SHORTER TIME FRAME UPDATE Bitcoin (BTC) is currently operating within a bullish channel and has recently experienced a bounce off the support provided by the ascending trendline and the 100-day moving average (MA). The cryptocurrency is presently trading within the Ichimoku cloud, accompanied by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), signaling a bearish divergence move. For bullish trend confirmation, it is imperative for the bulls to regain momentum and achieve a decisive breakout above the horizontal resistance level, approximately around 38,000. Conversely, a sustained breakdown of the ascending trendline would suggest the potential for a short-term correction. In simpler terms, Bitcoin is following an upward trend, finding support at the ascending trendline and the 100-day moving average. However, caution is advised as the RSI is signaling a potential bearish divergence. A clear breakthrough above the resistance at 38,000 would be a positive indicator for a bullish continuation, while a sustained break below the ascending trendline could indicate a short-term correction in the market. This chart is likely to help you make better trade decisions if you consider upvoting it. I would also love to know your charts and views in the comment section. Thank you
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by CRYPTOMOJO_TA
"Bitcoin Halving: Your Complete Guide""Hello everyone, I hope you are all doing well. Without further delay, let's proceed to the chart." "The Bitcoin halving is a significant event in the cryptocurrency market, happening approximately every four years. It involves cutting the block reward for miners in half, reducing the new BTC supply by 50%. The next halving is expected in early 2024, occurring after 840,000 blocks, and will decrease the mining reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC per block." "The hard-coded technical mechanism forms the foundation of scarcity, providing Bitcoin with its value proposition as verifiably finite digital gold. This comprehensive guide will delve into Bitcoin halving dates, their impact on price and mining, and why they hold significant importance." What is Bitcoin Halving? The Bitcoin halving refers to the periodic reduction by half of the block reward granted to miners for solving the cryptographic puzzle to add new blocks to the Bitcoin blockchain. This action effectively cuts in half the quantity of new Bitcoin introduced into circulation with each discovered block. Given the consistent reduction in supply alongside ongoing demand growth, these anticipated halving events typically trigger an increase in Bitcoin's market price over the subsequent 12–18 months. Bitcoin was ingeniously designed with a fixed and capped supply of 21 million coins, gradually released through mining rewards. The periodic halving events are crucial to gradually diminishing new issuance until the total supply cap is reached. This systematic reduction in inflation enhances scarcity in a predictable manner. Historical Significance and Market Impact Each Bitcoin halving event has historically brought about significant market dynamics. Previous halvings have resulted in increased demand and subsequent price appreciation for Bitcoin. The decrease in block rewards directly influences the available supply, frequently creating a supply-demand imbalance that propels the price upward. After past halvings, Bitcoin has undergone remarkable bull runs, culminating in new all-time highs. Implications for the Cryptocurrency Industry: The Bitcoin halving event carries several implications for the broader cryptocurrency industry. Firstly, it reinforces Bitcoin's scarcity and limited supply, positioning it as a store of value akin to precious metals like gold. The halving also serves as an incentive for miners to secure the network by contributing computational power, as reduced block rewards can potentially impact mining profitability. Furthermore, the event heightens investor and public awareness, drawing attention to the innovative nature of cryptocurrencies. Historical Bitcoin Halving Dates: November 28, 2012 — Block 210,000 mined (Reward decreased to 25 BTC) July 9, 2016 — Block 420,000 mined (Reward decreased to 12.5 BTC) May 11, 2020 — Block 630,000 mined (Reward decreased to 6.25 BTC) March 2024 (Estimated) — Block 840,000 mined (Reward expected to decrease to 3.125 BTC) Halving Price Impact Patterns: While various complex macroeconomic and sentiment factors contribute to Bitcoin's well-known price volatility, halvings have consistently preceded significant bull runs. Following the initial two halvings, BTC experienced substantial increases within 12–18 months. For instance, Bitcoin was valued at under $12 during the first halving in November 2012, soaring over 100x to approximately $1,150 by December 2013. The 2016 halving foreshadowed Bitcoin's remarkable 2017 bull run, reaching nearly $20,000. Just nine months after the May 2020 halving, Bitcoin reached new all-time highs surpassing $64,000 before retracing to a lower trading range. This recurring pattern supports the notion that halvings shape Bitcoin's boom-and-bust cycles by significantly limiting new supply issuance while user adoption and demand continue to grow exponentially. However, accurately predicting the timing and magnitude of peak prices following halvings remains challenging due to the multitude of variables influencing market sentiment swings.
by CRYPTOMOJO_TA
Fibonacci Retracement/Extensions- How & Why? | Live ExampleFibonacci retracements in technical analysis of various assets use a mathematical sequence discovered by Italian mathematician Leonardo Fibonacci. This sequence is a series of numbers where each number is the sum of the two preceding ones: 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, and so on. In stock trading, Fibonacci retracements are used to identify potential levels of support or resistance during price corrections. Imagine you have a stock that has been rising in price for some time. Suddenly, it starts to decline. Traders who use Fibonacci retracements believe that during this downward movement, the stock price will likely retrace or bounce back to certain levels before continuing its downward trend. These retracement levels are derived from the Fibonacci sequence. The most commonly used levels are 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8%. For example, if a stock's price drops from 100 to 80, traders would expect it to bounce back to around 88.20 (38.2% retracement), 90 (50% retracement), or 93.20 (61.8% retracement) before continuing its decline. While their effectiveness is debated just like any other tool, many traders including myself believe that these levels act as psychological support or resistance points due to the large number of market participants who follow this approach. Let us get back on the example above. I drew a trendline which had helped me back in 2021 to predict the top in GOLD. This is the perfect example of how EVERY PRICE movement matters. The Fibonacci levels are derived from levels from 2008. In this example the Fibonacci extension level 3.618 held as a perfect resistance for the price of GOLD. 2008 to 2023, isn't this amazing? How long can a single price movement can have its affect! How to draw a Fibonacci Retracement/Extension? It's fairly simple. Just plot one end of the fib to the high of the price movement and the other to the low or vice versa. I'll answering all your queries in the comments below. Please feel free to reach out!
TVC:GOLDEducation
by YieldYogi
2
Stages of a Downtrend: Insights from AI AnalysisDear Respected Members of the TradingView Community, I start with some straightforward insights. I've executed significant crypto sales this month. However, my decision was not because of any pre-established forecasts. The motivation behind my decision to part with cryptocurrencies like BTC was primarily due to liquidity challenges. I found it increasingly difficult to execute orders without impacting the market by moving prices, widening spreads, or settling for unfavorable market orders. Often, I had to exercise more patience than desired while waiting for the fulfillment of my limit orders. Eventually, when suitable over-the-counter (OTC) opportunities presented themselves, I decided to divest from these challenging assets. It's important to note that this decision was independent of price predictions. Y ou can consider various factors beyond price movement for an investment choice. Factors such as trading volume, liquidity, spreads, and transaction fees can add value to your decision-making process. The focus points of this discussion are price forecasts, where trading volume is one of the influential variables. F or those of you who have been tracking the trading volume candles from December 20, 2020, to the present, you may have observed a consistent decline in trading volume. Deep Neural Networks (DNN) tend to associate this declining volume with a waning interest in BTC-USD. While the overall trend for BTC has been bullish since November 14, 2022, DNN suggests that this rising trend could be a retracement within a broader bearish development that began on November 15, 2021. The significance of understanding the trend lies in assessing the risk-reward ratio. Generally, positions aligned with the prevailing trend offer a more favorable risk-reward ratio. An adaptive DNN model can add more than programmed indicators as it can adapt to changing market conditions and provide certainty metrics regarding potential trends. A s per my adaptive DNN analysis, there is a 70% probability that the bearish trend will persist, compared to a 30% probability for a bullish trend. However, market dynamics are influenced by multiple trends, each exerting varying degrees of impact at different times. Fuzzy Logic Trading (FLT) reveals that factors associated with the bearish trend currently hold a 60% influence on BTC-USD, with bullish parameters contributing 40%. Probabilities offer insights into potential future scenarios, while membership degrees provide a more nuanced perspective on the actual forces at play within a given scenario. A t present, the price of Bitcoin is approaching a juncture defined by multiple trendlines that may serve as resistance levels. One of these resistance lines previously served as a support level for local bottoms on January 2, 2023, March 13, 2023, and June 12, 2023. However, since Bitcoin breached this support line, it may have transitioned into a resistance line. It is just one example of a trendline that could act as a barrier, given the broader horizontal resistance zone extending between $38,000 and $32,000. A nother notable resistance line within this zone is the trendline connecting the peaks of the bullish retracement tail on April 10, 2023, July 3, 2023, and the present. These examples illustrate the potential resistance trendlines, with the entire zone representing a supply margin where additional barriers may exist. It's worth noting that bullish trends can possess the strength to break through resistance trendlines or zones, transforming them into support trendlines and demand zones. W hile an AI-driven analysis suggests a 30% probability of a continuing bullish trend, the market exhibits a 40% bullish influence from external factors such as news and prominent opinions, as determined by my Natural Language Processing (NLP) algorithm and mathematical tools from FLT. Should the BTC price establish a demand zone and initiate an upward trajectory from the support trendlines, the market could witness new local highs, potentially surmounting at least one of the aforementioned resistance trendlines within the supply zone. While this scenario does not guarantee a parabolic surge, it remains a possibility. O n one hand, optimistic investor sentiment could potentially transform even the sharply rising resistance trendline into a support level, as indicated by the blue forecast in the chart. On the other hand, a 70% probability of a continuing bearish trend, as suggested by dynamic DNN, and a 60% bearish influence per FLT, even in the presence of a bullish trend, implies a degree of caution. I n Finance, the path to profit is often a winding road, with ups and downs that can confound even the most seasoned investors. While many market participants tend to focus on bullish scenarios, it's essential to understand the various stages of a downtrend. Let's explore these phases and gain some insights from artificial intelligence. Every significant downtrend begins with a subtle sign – a warning of what's to come. Unfortunately, this early signal is soft while the bullish sentiment prevails. This initial warning is crucial for astute investors who pay attention to the nuances of the market. As the uptrend falters and inevitably fails, it becomes evident that the market is in a state of decline. This point often lures individuals into considering an all-in strategy, driven by the conviction that "It always goes back up." This misguided belief can lead to significant losses. Following the decline, there's typically a rally, which sometimes recovers a significant percentage from the previous drop. This rally can be deceptive, luring investors believing that a new bullish trend is underway. However, it's crucial to exercise caution and not be swayed solely by short-term gains. Tragically, the anticipated bullish trend often turns out to be a trap, leading to a prolonged and persistent downtrend. This phase can be particularly challenging for investors who have been misled by the allure of the initial rally. M oreover, artificial intelligence has made significant strides in the field of market analysis. By employing Dimensionality Reduction (DR) techniques, AI can detect potential bearish butterfly patterns on full-timeframe BTC charts available through pricing engines. Additionally, AI has identified the presence of a bearish Head and Shoulders pattern in the yearly timeframe of 2023. It's important to bear in mind that patterns are essentially estimations of probabilities and potential volatility structures. Any pattern can break in either an upward or downward direction, signaling either a bullish or bearish scenario, respectively. E xamining the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the spread between the price and Exponential Moving Average (EMA) 20 reveals that they currently fall within a historically and statistically oversold range. Additionally, there is a lack of confirmation for breaching any of the aforementioned resistance lines, let alone the supply zone itself. I n summary, a scalping strategy within the supply zone from the upper trendline to the lower boundary, as depicted in the short position on the chart, could be considered. If the bearish trend persists, other strategies may extend this short position beyond the resistance zone, potentially reaching the EMA 200 at around $25,000, where Bitcoin could encounter an underlying demand zone and various support trendlines. I t's essential to remember that trading decisions should not be solely based on price forecasts. The cryptocurrency market is influenced by various factors, and price is just one of them. This is not intended as investment advice. I encourage you to conduct your research and take full responsibility for your funds. Past performance does not guarantee future results. I n conclusion, understanding the stages of a downtrend is vital for any investor seeking to navigate the complexities of financial markets. Additionally, the integration of AI analysis can provide valuable insights, enhancing our ability to make informed decisions in the ever-evolving world of finance. Remember that no prediction is foolproof, and prudent risk management remains essential in the world of investment. Warm regards, Ely
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Elysian_Mind
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