Short the Soy CrushThis very interesting soybean crush spread is very close to its extremes and we think it is a good idea to short this spread. To do this, you need to buy 1 contract in soybean meal, 1 contract in soybean oil and buy 1 contract of soybeans. Our target is the level of 130 and we are willing to sell one more spread at the level of 180.
Learntotrade
EDUCATIONAL MATERIAL- Bitcoin I was thinking about this educational material for a long time and finally I have the chance to share it with you, all of you who want to improve your trading style, to be more profitable. This is specially for those who find it too difficult to trade and everything goes against them. I spent years to improve myself and become profitable, starting from the bottom, never had a personal teacher and never went to a finance university, learning everything by myself. A lot of times I wished to have someone who could help me or give me some tips but I had to learn everything on the hard way
I will start with the thing that I think is the most important in profitable trading .
Price action. Listen, there are a lot of strategies out there which work, everybody has their own style. Boolinger bands, pitchforks, heikin ashi candles, renko and dozens of indicators. All indicators are made from price action; open/close high/low of candlesticks.
Price action is the most important tool for a trader. It is used by institutional traders, by big houses and is the most accurate indicator of an asset, for the next move. And here I will teach you how to use price action in your favor.
On a daily chart, you can put a moving average to see clear how is the trend. Is there a bullish market, bearish market or ranging. Let’s see for example on my chart the 20 period Exponential moving average. After price action, the 20- period EMA is very important, especially on a daily chart for bitcoin because it acted like a resistance for many times this year. You can check the chart. Why not a single top trader from TV is using or telling something about it is a mistery for me. Few days ago I could bet the last move up will find difficulties to march further when it touches the 20 EMA. So simple. Let’s go back on price action. I marked on my chart LOWER HIGHS and LOWER LOWS. When you see a market moving like this you don’t want to go LONG until this trend is over or is bouncing back from a strong trend line.
First rule of a reversal; keep this in mind: If there is a downtrend the price has to make a higher low and then a higher high for a clear confirmation of reversal. In case we have a trend line wich acts like a support and if price bounces from it we don’t need to wait for a higher low and higher high. Let’s say we exclude that trend line, for a revearsal, usually the price needed to stay above the previous low made on 28th of May at 7065 dollars; then move higher than the previous LOWER HIGH marked by me with yellow, and after that a retest of it. Retests of the previous lower high usually occur and that is a clear confirmation of a revearsal. This is the most important weapon you need to master to be profitable in trading.
Same thing is when the trend changes from moving up to go down. First, you have HH and HL , then usually fails to make a higher high, it drops lower than the previous low, goes a little bit up again to retest the previous low and boom, trend is changed, the market is falling. Perfect example look for Bitcoin’s price action from 25th of February to thirtheen of march (on a daily time frame- is easier on the beginning because it takes out the noise).
Look for trendlines, try to analyse how long can you do it to see everything, the details. Support and resistance zones are very important also, look at my chart white dotted lines around 7800. See how the marked reacted around them and try to memorise. You have to learn the chart patterns. The most of the time you will see wedges, flags and triangles and around revearsal zones there will be double tops, bottoms, head&shoulders. Try to learn them and practice to recognize them because it will be easier for you in future, helping you to know where the price will go. There are a lot of tutorials about chart patterns on the internet.
BTC Realtime Analyse #1Hello all my friends,
First of all i need to thanks all of you for your great feed backs and lovely comments and messages after my first serious work on TV.when i started i didn't really know if you like my style or not but i figured out that my style in analyse all micro waves and patterns in short time frames really can help you to learn more and trade base on those waves.It made me happy when i saw 12 people made money with that style and that happiness really made me satisfied.Many of you my friends wanted a TELEGRAM channel to notify easier and i will create one in new week.what you need to know its that i work as a Graphic Designer in my day time and Trading in my second job that have better income from my first job but i struggling for time and always searching for more time because of that it's little hard for me to update in several apps like telegram and twitter but i will make one and when it reach a good number in followers,i will start to publish there too.
Second,i must open this for those that not read my last TA.Realtime analye its a new style that focus on short time frames and finding patterns in them.with this style we can earn from little waves by swing trading and after that learn more by seeing different patterns and sign in day instead of one week or more.we will mixing MACD ,Ichimuko, RSI and classic charting to find answers in this style.
So let's back to the chart now:
We had 3 Scenario in our last TA here that 2 of them survived.we are stick to red scenario now but yellow one is in the play and we have not any sign to announce that one failed.for now we will continue Red Scenario that i draw it here.Red Scenario consist of channel that i draw and 2 triangle that i draw with dotted line.for now it's our long term trend line that we need to keep it live but as i said before we have many limits that make us doubt in it.this triangle formation from months ago can not have no meaning.for now it made for us two turning point.one at 8560 and another at 9060.if we break this limits our triangles will join in history.but don't forget our channel roof around 10500.it will biggest limit in our way to reach our ATH 1.95% but maybe our channel is not as strong as we think!!!Yeah that's can't true,every channel or trend line need 3 impact point to make it creditable and we have three too.because of that it can be easy to reach that point and break it,but for now let's see at past and not future.
As you see we are so close to break downward channel and after that we need to test it as a support then continue our new upward trend.for now we close 2 candle in 4hr time frame above EMA50 and it's a good sign,we need to test it as support and by that make a bounce over the downward trendline .
We have an almost crossover signs in MACD D time frame it can easily move us to 8200-8500.
We are above of ichimuko cloud in shirt time frames and near to break it in 4HR time frame.again it's good buy signal always.for those that did not entered with us from $7100 better to wait for break out and confirmation now,we are in little risky situation.
I will update this idea as soon as find new sign.
For now,Good Luck my Friends
Best Regards
Peyman A
EURUSD Head & Shoulders Pattern/Long Term Buy OpportunityEURUSD is heading down towards the weekly support at around 1.16414 then I expect that it would then go back up towards 1.20850 and could then either form a head and shoulders pattern or could go over and continue to go up towards the weekly resistance area at 1.25701.
Looking at the indicators such as the RSI and Stochastic also on the Weekly chart, the Rsi looks as if it's heading towards the 30 mark and the stochastic is already below 20. If the Rsi gets below 30 (Oversold Zone) and then the blue line crosses the stochastic and is now on top of the red line then expect that it would go up.
Keep a look out for the rsi and stochastic though when it gets to around 1.20850 as it could show signs of reversing. Other than that guys it looks like a good long term buy or head and shoulders pattern.
You could place shorter terms trades on M15 in between to make money as the market moves around
GBPJPY Potential Daily H&SThis could go either way right now, look for the Break of the 147 Neckline for a very nice short opportunity on the retest. Alternatively look for Buy confirmations back up-to 150 or even to the upper trend-line for the Wedge Formation.
Double Demand confirmation of Trendline and Support area so the Bias has to be upwards until broken.
GBPCAD Retest of Triple Bottom Formation WeeklyWe have 3 instances of Demand being hit right now, the 200EMA coming into play on the Weekly and the Daily so we can look Long on price action confirmation. Potential Triple Bottom completion and retest before moving up in wave 5.
Potential Trend-Line Break is a slight worry but with good price action it could be a very nice Swing.
Gold Potential Double Demand Hit Gold has dropped to just above the $1300 threshold once again - This time in conjunction with the Daily 200 EMA. We could see a nice move up however it may be limited to the 38.2 where it would meet a potential Trend-line break (Retest) before continuing down, on the Flip side of that, the push from the EMA could push it through the Supply at the top for a Long Term Hold.
Price Action is Mandatory as the USD is very strong right now and it could easily push below.
XAGUSD Enters 2 x Demand AreaSilver has again reached its crucial lower range end and is in a serious demand area around the $16 area on top of a Daily Trendline and area of support. It also sits atop the 23.6 of the larger move, price tends not to drop below here in recent history look for a Long entry with your stoploss below the 23.6
Price is in a Weekly Wedge and very likely to break out soon, so beware of the drop through, Price action is mandatory. On the flip side of that, if it breaks above this could be a long term hold.
Is it a break point for an uptrend continuation? It looks that our pullback movement is reaching its end so a possible correction to the uptrend seems to be coming according to our H4 chart. Therefore, while being in holidays affects the market volume, we keep on watching confirmation signals in order to get in to the trend as a bullish attack!.
Is Bitcoin crashing? Are we going to ZERO? Is it Panic Time?Daily BTC Upadte
I don’t think we are crashing or Going to Zero.
In my education piece yesterday, I said I thought there were a lot of people trapped in losing positions up higher, some of them I think I getting frustrated and getting out. I actually predicted this in my fist BTC post on TV
“If we break the 200 ema and close above I would expect a pretty quick trip to, 10,000 (The pink line) and then a retest of the 200 ema , a bounce here would see $12,000( The Black Line) in play quickly and then I expect consolidation between the 200EMA and 12,000 for some time.”
So while I am not a psychic, its pretty good and we are now consolidating or ranging between the 200EMA on the daily chart and 12,000 (This area is shaded for you)
Importantly the break down on the 4 H Chart (attached) has reversed above 9300 support, closed above the important 9750 level and looks to be stable. While it doesn’t look like a panic sell to me it does require me to be BEARISH/NUETRAL. I am under the 200ema (on the 4H Chart) and my previous support trendline. I will move the support line when I get two bars above my new low on each side. (Potentially next bar) but this is a technical move and my Bias remains BEARISH/NUETRAL.
For those looking to sell bounces off the 200 EMA (4H Chart), 10800 and the old Support trendlines all offer great chances to sell. I would scale out at 9750, and trail down from there.
For those looking to buy, I would buy now or on the break and retest of old support trendline. Targets are 11,700.
My expectation is next we will revisit the 200ema on the 4H chart and then we will be watching closely again.
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