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We will be long-short-longThat is long in the short-term (until the Fed), short in the medium-term (until October), and long in the long-term (until next Spring). Through some creative analysis, I have us in Primary wave 4, Intermediate wave C, and Minor wave 2. I expect Minor wave 2 to end tomorrow, likely earlier in the day and then we begin Minor wave 3 up toward 3975. It may take 2-3 days until wave 3 ends. Wave 4 will likely be a day long and I have currently plotted it halfway between the projected movement of wave 3. The final wave 5 will likely last around 2 days. Based on prior wave C movement, the strongest model agreement has wave C lasting 7 days. I figure 7-9 is safe. Based on prior wave 4 movement, the overall move has the most model agreement at 28 days. I think we will fall short of this mark as the Fed rate hike occurs two days prior to this point. We could drop into the rate hike and finish 4 with a wave 5 up after the hike if “it’s not as bad as forecasted,” but most of us are ready for the 100+ basis point future. Wave 3s ending in 4C3 tend to extend 101% beyond wave 1’s movement 75% of the time (1st Quartile), beyond 112.68% on 50% of the occasions (2nd Quartile / Median) and 25% of the time (3rd Quartile) it will extend 125.81%. Wave 4s ending in 2A4 tend to retrace the wave 3 in which they follow by 29.58% on 75% of occasions (1st Quartile), retrace 54.82% half of the time (2nd Quartile / Median), retrace 84.72% on a quarter of occurrences (3rd Quartile). We will likely top out above 4000, but how much further remains unknown. Early earnings may be paltry, but earnings forecasts post-Fed rate hike will likely take us down through 3400 over the next 2-3 months.
SP:SPXLong
by StockSignaler
Theory 3 of 3 for SPX--MOST LIKELYI have narrowed the likely future paths down to 3 theories. THEORY THREE: Current position is Primary wave 4 of Cycle A of Supercycle 2. Theory 3 is on a faster path while the wave structure is similar to Theory 2. The preliminary bear market bottom would be in somewhere between Election Day 2024 and March 2025. The path for the next month would see the market move up for a few more weeks as it attempts to finish Primary wave 4 (SKY BLUE). It appears Intermediate wave A (PINK) has concluded and it is even possible the low 2 days later was the end of Intermediate wave B down. It remains possible for further downswing this week to complete Intermediate wave B but it likely will not pass below the June low at 3636.87. Wave B CAN go below this level but it would bounce above it quickly. Early models have Primary wave 4 lasting around 28 days, we are 9 days into it so far. IMPORTANT MOVES: There are no duration restrictions on future movement at this time. A break above 3945 before a drop below 3636 would continue to keep this theory in play. PROS: This model appears to be riding election cycles. After Primary wave 4 ends, the market will swoon down again for a few more months with the bottom occurring around October/November this year. The 6-12 months afterward would move up before the final leg down takes the market to around 2400. The correction at the beginning of the millennium saw the overall decline last for about 9 years (March 2000 – March 2009). This was a larger macro event then our current correction. A 2-4 year correction makes more sense for this micro wave set we are likely in. CONS: Negatives are not glaring with this model at this time.
SP:SPX
by StockSignaler
Theory 2 of 3 for SPXI have narrowed the likely future paths down to 3 theories. THEORY TWO: Current position is Intermediate wave 4 of Primary wave 1 of Cycle A of Supercycle 2. Theory 2 still has the bear market finding a final bottom 5-8 years from now. The path for the next month would see the market move up for a few more weeks as it attempts to finish Intermediate wave 4 (PINK). It appears Minor wave A (YELLOW) has concluded and it is even possible the low 2 days later was the end of Minor wave B down. It remains possible for further downswing this week to complete Minor wave B but it likely will not pass below the June low at 3636.87. Wave B CAN go below this level but it would bounce above it quickly. IMPORTANT MOVES: There are no duration restrictions on future movement at this time. A break above 3945 before a drop below 3636 would continue to keep this theory in play. PROS: If this model holds out, it will provide ample time for investors to ride the waves up and down during the current recession. CONS: The correction at the beginning of the millennium saw the overall decline last for about 9 years (March 2000 – March 2009). This was a larger macro event then our current correction. It is unlikely that this event will last nearly as long as that one. This would likely imply the current political pressures on the market are not resolved until after the 2028 election cycle.
SP:SPX
by StockSignaler
Theory 1 of 3 for SPXI have narrowed the likely future paths down to 3 theories. THEORY ONE: Current position is Minor wave 3 of Intermediate wave 5 of Primary wave 1 of Cycle A of Supercycle 2. Theory 1 has the bear market finding a final bottom 5-8 years from now. The path for the next month would see new lows below 3636.87 which was the recent low from June. IMPORTANT MOVES: Currently Intermediate wave 3 is the shortest between waves 1 and 3 at 31 days. This would force wave 5 to be less than 31 days which is set for July 19. Minor waves 1 and 2 as marked (YELLOW) have accounted for 17 of the 31 days. This means we must complete Minor waves 3, 4, and 5 within the next 14 days which will be a very tight timeframe. This theory will be ruled out if we break above 3945 before we break beneath 3636. The futures right now are pointing to this theory being disqualified. PROS: If this model holds out, it will provide ample time for investors to ride the waves up and down during the current recession. CONS: The correction at the beginning of the millennium saw the overall decline last for about 9 years (March 2000 – March 2009). This was a larger macro event then our current correction. It is unlikely that this event will last nearly as long as that one. This would likely imply the current political pressures on the market are not resolved until after the 2028 election cycle. There is also an Elliott Wave violation inside of Intermediate wave 3 (the span between PINK 2 and PINK 3). Minute wave 4 ends beyond where Minute wave 2 ends. This violation likely negates the Minor waves inside of Intermediate 3 and its end point.
SP:SPX
by StockSignaler
Five theories of the market's future. All bad short-termI have come up with a few theories in trying to determine where we are and what could happen next. I believe we are in Sub-Millennial wave 1 (began June 1877), Grand Supercycle wave 5 (began March 2009), Supercycle wave 2 (began January 4, 2022), Cycle wave A (January 4), Primary wave 1 (January 4), Intermediate wave 5 (began June 2, 2022), Minor wave 2 (began June 17 at 1030 eastern time). This is the primary assumption as to where we are (and is referenced as 152A152 based on the wave), but I will explore what should occur next if this is true along with timelines. Theory #2 would have us in a wave ending in 152A52. Theory #3 would put us in a wave ending in 152A4A where Primary 3 just ended at 1030 on June 17 and therefore we will move up for a month or so. Theory #4 is that I am very off base in my wave markings while theory #5 would be that Elliott Wave Theory is only good for Monday morning quarterbacking and the Jacksonville Jaguars will win more times than Elliott Wave will. The U.S. economy is on the brink of major trouble and no one appears to be willing to do anything to stop it so theory #1 is the most plausible at this time. Recession is here and will linger for many quarters. The beginning of Theory #1 must consider what could happen with Supercycle wave 2 (referenced as 152). Supercycle wave 1 lasted 3252 trading days and ran from March 2009 until January 2022. The index began at 666.79 and topped at 4818.62 for a total move of 4151.83 and rise over run of 1.277 points per day (move/trading days). Based on similar waves ending in 52, the models agree the most that this downward cycle could last 813 trading days which would put the end of this overall downward trend in March 2025. Even if this is true we would move upward again and possibly near all-time highs before falling down. The three closest end points would have this Supercycle ending after 397 trading days (August 4, 2023), 469 (November 15, 2023) and 542 (February 28, 2024). The median movement of waves ending in 52 will move 44.44% of the predecessor wave. This would put the median length at 1445 trading days (August 2027). While this does not bode well, the length could be much shorter as market and wave intensity continue to get more drastic possibly a byproduct of computer trading, technology, market participation, or other factors. Recent waves ending in 52 have seen wave 1 be 2-4 times greater than wave 2 in length. 813 days would be if wave 1 were 4x greater. More specifically, waves ending in 152 tend to last 30-100% of the length of wave 1 with a median length at 50%. The shortest possible lengths are the aforementioned 469 and 813 trading days. Determining the length of Supercycle wave 2 is only half the battle. Waves ending in 52 tend to retrace or move 32-75% of their wave 1’s movement with a median at 50.17%. This means wave 2 could find its bottom in a range 1344.36-3116.36 below the index’s all-time highs. This would place the bottom between 1702.26-3474.26 with the median bottom at 2401.12. Waves ending in 152 slightly widen the retracement to 25.37-75.67% of the prior wave with a median at 45.71%. This could place the highest bottom at 3765.30 which we have already dropped below. We can provide early estimates of Cycle wave A and Primary wave 1 inside of Theory #1, however, our next focus is on determining the end of Minor wave 2 inside of Intermediate wave 5. The ratios and percentages from the prior two paragraphs are still valid as this wave 152A152 ends in 152 and 52. Minor wave 1 lasted 11 days, dropped 540.64 points with a rise over run of 45.053. The length could be between 3-11 days. The models have the strongest agreement on 3 and 6 days long. Day 1 begins Tuesday June 21. June 23rd is 3 days with 6 occurring on June 28. A move between 25-75% of wave 1 could see a quick gain for the index of 137.16-409.10. This could place the top between 3774.03-4045.97 with a median at 3883.99. If theory #1 proves true, we will likely move quickly over the next week with a top less than 4045.97. This would still provide quick and large gains. Theory #1 is most likely wrong or off by a wave if we drop below 3636.87 before moving above 3770. This theory is the most logical at the moment but I will publish my other theories over the coming days. Once a theory works, we will move forward with it and continue to provide updates going forward.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
Agilent looking for technology rallyMy models say the Fed cannot raise rates beyond 0.5 points tomorrow or they cannot be trusted in the future. We should see a quick rally to end this week and perhaps begin next week, before the reality of $6+ fuel prices set in again and we continue the bear market. Based on historical movement, the trough could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending top should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated BUY on June 10, 2022 with a closing price of 121.62. If this instance is successful, that means the stock should rise to at least 122.53 which is the bottom of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock rise 2.205% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the bottom of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock rise 3.812% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock rise 6.56% from the signal closing price which is the top of the smaller green box. The maximum rise on record would see a move to the top of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well. The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The peak of the rise can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max rise occurs within the limit of study at 50 trading bars after the signal. A 0.4% rise must occur over the next 50 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 18 trading bars; half occur within 28 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 38 trading bars. The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement. As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
NYSE:A
by StockSignaler
TXN to join quick tech rally?My models say the Fed cannot raise rates beyond 0.5 points tomorrow or they cannot be trusted in the future. We should see a quick rally to end this week and perhaps begin next week, before the reality of $6+ fuel prices set in again and we continue the bear market. Based on historical movement, the trough could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending top should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated BUY on June 10, 2022 with a closing price of 159.445. If this instance is successful, that means the stock should rise to at least 160.195 which is the bottom of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock rise 2.0335% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the bottom of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock rise 3.732% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock rise 5.295% from the signal closing price which is the top of the smaller green box. The maximum rise on record would see a move to the top of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well. The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The peak of the rise can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max rise occurs within the limit of study at 50 trading bars after the signal. A 0.4% rise must occur over the next 50 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 17.0 trading bars; half occur within 31.5 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 45.0 trading bars. The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement. As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
NASDAQ:TXN
by StockSignaler
Hard to ignore this many oversold signalsMy models say the Fed cannot raise rates beyond 0.5 points tomorrow or they cannot be trusted in the future. We should see a quick rally to end this week and perhaps begin next week, before the reality of $6+ fuel prices set in again and we continue the bear market. Based on historical movement, the trough could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending top should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated BUY on June 10, 2022 with a closing price of 54.66. If this instance is successful, that means the stock should rise to at least 54.97 which is the bottom of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock rise 2.28% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the bottom of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock rise 4.5675% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock rise 8.4275% from the signal closing price which is the top of the smaller green box. The maximum rise on record would see a move to the top of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well. The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The peak of the rise can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max rise occurs within the limit of study at 50 trading bars after the signal. A 0.4% rise must occur over the next 50 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 10.0 trading bars; half occur within 27.0 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 45.0 trading bars. The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement. As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
NASDAQ:WDCLong
by StockSignaler
The Bull Case Inside the Overall Bear MarketI had the markets in wave 1532C, but a few things happened late or not at all. In fact, this whole downturn in January was 2 months sooner than I had initially forecasting. Timing the market is hard, and I not perfect. Learning from my mistakes and asking what could have happened or where did I go wrong is what makes me better at all of this. I have missed three calls so far so I began to ask why? I initially called wave A down prematurely. Instead of calling out the bottom of A, I found what I then thought was the bottom of wave 3 inside of A. Then, I misidentified the end of B, but it happens. I was wrong on A, but for good reason. A would have been a 5 wave pattern down, followed by a 3-wave pattern upward for wave B. I found the 5 waves and 3 waves so I asked what else could this be? The economy is not getting better as long as fuel prices rise. These prices will continue to elevate the price of everything until it is addressed. I had us coming out of this mess a week ago, but the economy and Fed never made sense to me. I assumed it would be a quick end to the war as well. I have been wrong, but why? I identified 5 waves down but that is because we were in wave 1 of wave A. What the 3 waves for my wave B call was actually the 3 waves of a wave 2 inside of wave A. Everything stemmed from my identification of the COVID crash in March 2020. I marked that anomaly as the wrong wave structure but never felt right about it. I have now re-marked the waves in the chart above and will eventually have all of the statistics to test my newest theory. I had us about to wrap up Cycle wave 2 inside of Supercycle wave 3. I no longer believe we are that far along. I still have us in Sub-Millennial wave 1 (began June 1877) and Grand Supercycle wave 5 which began March 2009. However, I only have the market in Supercycle wave 2 and Cycle wave A—-both beginning in January this year. I further have us in Primary wave 4 which should end soon and we will likely continue our downward movement below the prior low of 3810.32 before then end of June. This would finally end Cycle wave A. Next step is a 3-wave structure upward over the next 1-2 months which could top between 4400-4900. I will have more details soon. We will then find the new bottom in a 5-wave downward pattern which will complete Cycle wave C and Supercycle wave 2. This would likely occur 3-5 months after it begins with a low between 3000-3300. This structure fits much more inline with the economic outlook and fuel prices. The new Congress sits in January in the US as well. As long as Congress and the White House are controlled by differing parties, lopsided legislation capable of harming half the country should not pass. Fuel prices will only get better with unilateral action from the White House, some sort of bi-partisanship, or a majority strong enough to override a veto (this longshot is doubtful, but so were the Bengals to make it to the Super Bowl). If this structure is correct, the first thing to occur will be a break to the downside within the next 3-5 trading days at the latest. If this structure is wrong, we will move above 4800 before we go below 4000 and I will once again ask why en route to the next theory.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
1
CPS likely to continue downtrendBased on historical movement, the peak could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending bottom should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated SELL on June 3, 2022 with a closing price of 5.72. If this instance is successful, that means the stock should decline to at least 5.675 which is the top of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock decline 2.502% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the top of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock decline 4.91% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock decline 9.026% from the signal closing price which is the bottom of the smaller green box. The maximum decline on record would see a move to the bottom of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well. The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The trough of the decline can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max decline occurs within the limit of study at 40 trading bars after the signal. A 0.75% decline must occur over the next 40 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 9.5 trading bars; half occur within 20.0 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 34.0 trading bars. The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement. As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
NYSE:CPSShort
by StockSignaler
OLED looks overbought again, time for snapback?Based on historical movement, the peak could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending bottom should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated SELL on June 3, 2022 with a closing price of 124.42. If this instance is successful, that means the stock should decline to at least 123.68 which is the top of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock decline 2.843% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the top of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock decline 6.8475% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock decline 12.939499999999999% from the signal closing price which is the bottom of the smaller green box. The maximum decline on record would see a move to the bottom of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well. The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The trough of the decline can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max decline occurs within the limit of study at 40 trading bars after the signal. A 0.5% decline must occur over the next 40 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 5.0 trading bars; half occur within 16.0 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 31.5 trading bars. The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement. As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
NASDAQ:OLEDShort
by StockSignaler
June swoon about to hit Starbucks stock?Based on historical movement, the peak could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending bottom should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated SELL on June 1, 2022 with a closing price of 76.28. If this instance is successful, that means the stock should decline to at least 75.47 which is the top of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock decline 2.684% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the top of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock decline 5.604% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock decline 13.653% from the signal closing price which is the bottom of the smaller green box. The maximum decline on record would see a move to the bottom of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well. The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The trough of the decline can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max decline occurs within the limit of study at 35 trading bars after the signal. A 1% decline must occur over the next 35 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 6 trading bars; half occur within 14 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 25 trading bars. The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement. As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
NASDAQ:SBUXShort
by StockSignaler
NBHC about to correct with the rest of market?Based on historical movement, the peak could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending bottom should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated SELL on May 27, 2022 with a closing price of 40.89. If this instance is successful, that means the stock should decline to at least 40.73 which is the top of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock decline 1.425% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the top of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock decline 2.254% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock decline 3.606% from the signal closing price which is the bottom of the smaller green box. The maximum decline on record would see a move to the bottom of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well. The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The trough of the decline can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max decline occurs within the limit of study at 50 trading bars after the signal. A 0.4% decline must occur over the next 50 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 7 trading bars; half occur within 24 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 37 trading bars. The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement. As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
NYSE:NBHCShort
by StockSignaler
Will Laredo Petroleum correct its rally soon?Based on historical movement, the peak could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending bottom should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated SELL on May 27, 2022 with a closing price of 83.65. If this instance is successful, that means the stock should decline to at least 83.11 which is the top of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock decline 5.226% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the top of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock decline 8.355% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock decline 15.97% from the signal closing price which is the bottom of the smaller green box. The maximum decline on record would see a move to the bottom of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well. The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The trough of the decline can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max decline occurs within the limit of study at 40 trading bars after the signal. A 0.5% decline must occur over the next 40 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 7 trading bars; half occur within 18 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 34 trading bars. The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement. As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
LShort
by StockSignaler
Marvell Technology appears to have set a bull trapBased on historical movement, the peak could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending bottom should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated SELL on May 27, 2022 with a closing price of 59.8. If this instance is successful, that means the stock should decline to at least 59.55 which is the top of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock decline 1.956% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the top of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock decline 3.897% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock decline 6.432% from the signal closing price which is the bottom of the smaller green box. The maximum decline on record would see a move to the bottom of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well. The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The trough of the decline can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max decline occurs within the limit of study at 50 trading bars after the signal. A 0.4% decline must occur over the next 50 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 8 trading bars; half occur within 22 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 43 trading bars. The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement. As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
NASDAQ:MRVLShort
by StockSignaler
Cleveland-Cliffs has overbought signal on my RSIBased on historical movement, the peak could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending bottom should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated SELL on May 27, 2022 with a closing price of 24.56. If this instance is successful, that means the stock should decline to at least 24.42 which is the top of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock decline 2.961% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the top of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock decline 6.296% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock decline 9.712% from the signal closing price which is the bottom of the smaller green box. The maximum decline on record would see a move to the bottom of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well. The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The trough of the decline can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max decline occurs within the limit of study at 50 trading bars after the signal. A 0.4% decline must occur over the next 50 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 8 trading bars; half occur within 28 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 46 trading bars. The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement. As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
NYSE:CLFShort
by StockSignaler
3
Blackstone Inc joins the overbought clubBased on historical movement, the peak could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending bottom should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated SELL on May 26, 2022 with a closing price of 118.28. If this instance is successful, that means the stock should decline to at least 117.58 which is the top of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock decline 2.609% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the top of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock decline 5.353% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock decline 9.08% from the signal closing price which is the bottom of the smaller green box. The maximum decline on record would see a move to the bottom of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well. The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The trough of the decline can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max decline occurs within the limit of study at 40 trading bars after the signal. A 0.5% decline must occur over the next 40 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 10 trading bars; half occur within 29 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 36 trading bars. The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement. As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
NYSE:BXShort
by StockSignaler
Steel Dynamics is overbought according to thisBased on historical movement, the peak could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending bottom should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated SELL on May 27, 2022 with a closing price of 85.6795. If this instance is successful, that means the stock should decline to at least 84.85 which is the top of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock decline 2.103% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the top of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock decline 4.89% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock decline 8.016% from the signal closing price which is the bottom of the smaller green box. The maximum decline on record would see a move to the bottom of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well. The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The trough of the decline can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max decline occurs within the limit of study at 40 trading bars after the signal. A 0.75% decline must occur over the next 40 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 10 trading bars; half occur within 22 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 36 trading bars. The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement. As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
NASDAQ:STLDShort
by StockSignaler
Finally time to buy the dip...in 2 weeksI warned of this bull trap and we should now be in the final leg down. Today’s close kissed the top of the trend channel as it remained in the projected zone discussed in my recent analysis. The market could open up tomorrow, but most likely should not. Today’s highs should not get tested for at least a few more weeks. Next stop is the basement of this bear market. To recap, all five purple boxes were general estimates of where each wave should end IF Primary C were to last 37-46 days while it drops 863.93-1117.41. So far, the end of waves can be identified in each box. If the prior analysis is accurate we should bottom no later than June 3rd. The larger green box was the estimated market bottom based on relationships between Cycle waves 1 and this wave 2 as well as Primary waves A and B in relation to this wave C. The better news is that the intermediate wave data not only fit in the larger box, it narrowed the target zone. I have a final few data points that could further narrow the target bottoms. I calculate the wave extensions which determines the percent that wave 5 moves in relation to wave 3 while using the same starting point which was the end of wave 2 (beginning of wave 3). Considering all intermediate wave 5 data, the first quartile of data states that 75% of all intermediate wave 5s move at least 110.98% of wave 3’s movement. The 50% of all intermediate wave 5s move 127.12%, while 25% of all data extends 147.53%. Additionally, the average move is 136%. All of these levels are identified on the chart with the light blue lines. I further studied intermediate wave 5s inside of Primary C waves. These levels utilize the green lines on the chart. This data has 75% of the intermediate wave 5s moving 110.98%, 50% moving 120.85%, 25% moving 133.13%. The average move is 123.53%. Nearly all of these data points land in the large green and small purple target boxes previously mentioned. All told my target bottoms appear valid. Time will tell, but we are looking at another rough drop (around 10%) in about 2 weeks. I still think an end to the Russia-Ukraine conflict is the only thing to reverse markets quickly. That war will likely only come to an end if something happens to Putin.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
Bottom in sight; bull trap aheadThus far, Primary wave C is difficult to determine where the internal waves are located. We have either seen the end of Intermediate waves 1 and/or 3 or something else. The projection is for Primary wave C to last 37-46 days while it drops 863.93-1117.41 points. If this range is valid, where should each intermediate wave end? This analysis will determine potential identifiers for tracking the downward movement. INTERMEDIATE WAVE 1 LENGTH In general, Intermediate wave 1 typically contributes 11-30% of the larger wave’s length it resides in with a maximum contribution of 53%. This means wave 1 could last 4 to 14 days and up to 24 days at the most. Waves ending in C1 (Primary wave C, Intermediate wave 1) typically make up 11-34% with a maximum of 41%. This means wave 1 could last 4 to 16 days and no more than 21. Waves ending in 2C1 typically make up 11-33% with a maximum of 39.77%. This means wave 1 could last 4 to 15 days and no more than 18 days. Cumulatively, wave 1 could last 4 to 15 days and no more than 18. MOVEMENT Through similar considerations, wave 1 tends to contribute 33-59% of the larger wave’s overall movement with a maximum of 104%. This means wave 1 could drop 292.48 to 669.10 with a maximum drop of 1162.11. Waves ending in C1 typically move 26-66% of the larger wave with a maximum at 91%. This means wave 1 could drop 227.64 to 735.48 with a maximum of 1016.84. Lastly, waves ending in 2C1 move 31-77% with a continued maximum of 91%. This means wave 1 could drop 272.65 to 867.64. Using these ranges, Intermediate wave 1 could bottom between 3769.66-4409.66 with middle ground between 3968.2-4409.66. INTERMEDIATE WAVE 2 LENGTH In general, Intermediate wave 2 typically contributes 5-12% of the larger wave’s length it resides in with a maximum contribution of 35%. This means wave 2 could last 1 to 6 days and up to 16 days at the most. Waves ending in C2 typically make up 6-12% with a maximum of 25%. This means wave 1 could last 2 to 5 days and no more than 11. Waves ending in 2C2 typically make up 8-15% with the same maximum of 25%. This means wave 2 could last 2 to 7 days. Cumulatively, wave 2 could last 2 to 7 days and no more than 11. MOVEMENT Through similar considerations, wave 2 tends to contribute 16-30% of the larger wave’s overall movement with a maximum of 93%. This means wave 2 could gain 139.74 to 339.64 with a maximum gain of 1047.57. Waves ending in C2 typically move 18-32% of the larger wave with a maximum at 73%. This means wave 2 could gain 156 to 358.80 with a maximum of 819.96. Lastly, waves ending in 2C2 move 19-56% with a continued maximum of 73%. This means wave 2 could move 166.05 to 628.57. Using these ranges and considering Intermediate wave 1 will likely bottom between 3968.2 – 4409.66, Intermediate wave 2 could top between 4134.25 – 4602. Stronger consideration and likelihood places the top between 4200 – 4602. INTERMEDIATE WAVE 3 LENGTH In general, Intermediate wave 3 typically contributes 27-43% of the larger wave’s length it resides in with a maximum contribution of 66%. This means wave 3 could last 10 to 19 days and up to 30 days at the most. Waves ending in C3 typically make up 29-44% with a maximum of 59%. This means wave 3 could last 10 to 13 days and no more than 27. Waves ending in 2C3 typically make up 26-42% with a maximum of 45%. This means wave 3 could last 9 to 19 days and no more than 20 days. Cumulatively, wave 3 could last 10 to 18 days and no more than 20. MOVEMENT Through similar considerations, wave 3 tends to contribute 45-70% of the larger wave’s overall movement with a maximum of 107%. This means wave 3 could drop 396.50 to 780.57 with a maximum drop of 1203.33. Waves ending in C3 typically move 60-87% of the larger wave with a maximum at 99%. This means wave 3 could drop 517.32 to 973.60 with a maximum of 1106.91. Lastly, waves ending in 2C3 move 60-82% with a maximum of 88%. This means wave 3 could drop 519.76 to 921.67. Using these ranges and considering Intermediate wave 2 will likely top between 4200 and 4602, Intermediate wave 3 could bottom between 3278.33 – 4082.24 with stronger consideration between 3680.33-4082.24. INTERMEDIATE WAVE 4 LENGTH In general, Intermediate wave 4 typically contributes 5-14% of the larger wave’s length it resides in with a maximum contribution of 34%. This means wave 4 could last 2 to 6 days and up to 16 days at the most. Waves ending in C4 typically make up 5-16% with a maximum of 26%. This means wave 4 could last 2 to 7 days and no more than 11. Waves ending in 2C4 typically make up 6-20% with the same maximum of 25%. This means wave 4 could last 2 to 9 days. Cumulatively, wave 4 could last 2 to 8 days and no more than 11. MOVEMENT Through similar considerations, wave 4 tends to contribute 19-34% of the larger wave’s overall movement with a maximum of 85%. This means wave 4 could gain 164.45 to 379.14 with a maximum gain of 958.18. Waves ending in C4 typically move 22-37% of the larger wave with a maximum at 46%. This means wave 4 could gain 191.45 to 416.90 with a maximum of 512.44. Lastly, waves ending in 2C4 move 22-36% with a continued maximum of 46%. This means wave 4 could move 191.71 to 405.76. Using these ranges and considering Intermediate wave 3 will likely bottom between 3680.33 – 4082.24, Intermediate wave 4 could top between 3872.04 – 4487.24. Stronger consideration and likelihood places the top between 3900 – 4300. INTERMEDIATE WAVE 5 LENGTH In general, Intermediate wave 5 typically contributes 12-29% of the larger wave’s length it resides in with a maximum contribution of 51%. This means wave 5 could last 4 to 13 days and up to 23 days at the most. Waves ending in C5 typically make up 10-21% with a maximum of 37%. This means wave 5 could last 4 to 9 days and no more than 17. Waves ending in 2C5 typically make up 9-21% with a continued maximum of 37%. This means wave 5 could last 3 to 10 days. Cumulatively, wave 5 could last 4 to 9 days and no more than 17. MOVEMENT Through similar considerations, wave 5 tends to contribute 33-56% of the larger wave’s overall movement with a maximum of 90%. This means wave 5 could drop 288.55 to 631.56 with a maximum drop of 1003.99. Waves ending in C5 typically move 40-47% of the larger wave with a maximum at 60%. This means wave 5 could drop 349.11 to 533.56 with a maximum of 668.66. Lastly, waves ending in 2C5 move 40-47% with a maximum of 55%. This means wave 5 could drop 351.73 to 529.15 and no more than 618.49. Using these ranges and considering Intermediate wave 4 will likely top between 3900 and 4300, Intermediate wave 5 along with Primary wave C and Cycle wave 2 could bottom between 3370.85 – 3950 with stronger consideration between 3550-3771. OVERALL PICTURE The potential tops and bottoms have been plotted on the chart above for reference. We can see these targets based on the purple boxes. I laid these independent of the movement thus far. When considered with the movement we have observed I have roughly plotted where waves 1 and 2 have now likely ended. Wave 3 may have ended today with the low, however, I dislike calling the day of analysis as an actual wave end point. If 3 did not end, we may drop within the next 2 days to a very short-term bottom. Wave 4 will not be long, but there could be very large moves as another bull trap is set. This analysis does push wave 5 a little further beyond my original May 20 starting point, but it does help narrow the final market bottom. My original target is the green box, while the wave 5 box from this analysis can be found inside of it. This pending bull trap could see the market drop 400+ points inside of less than 2 weeks. A quick drop could cue additional margin calls and be the capitulation stage of this bear market correction. Hang in there! If you have been following my analysis during this entire correction, you know the end actually is near despite the talks of long term recession. The only thing capable of giving hope and slowing inflation is if the war in Ukraine ends. My money is on something happening to Putin and Russia backing down. This immediate jubilation would provide hope that war-related supply chains for food and energy will be reversible (It won’t be quick but the market does not care). This will begin to correct some inflation which also means the Fed will not have to raise as fast or as many times as originally projected hence keeping borrowing costs lower than they would otherwise rise to by year’s end. But this is just my guess at what bottoms the market. I could be way off.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
1
Following the S&P500 waves to the bottomThe big moves this prior week call into question where we could possibly be. Are the recession fears valid and will the market tank for the remainder of the year or is the bottom truly near? Let us study what Primary C could possibly look like. DATE TARGET Primary wave A’s length tends to contribute 30-40% of the movement of the larger Cycle wave in which it resides. Primary wave A was 35 days long. This means Cycle wave 2 could last between 87.5 and 116.6 days long. Primary wave C tends to contribute 35-40% of the length of the larger wave. If Cycle wave 2 is 87 days long, wave C would contribute 30 to 34 days of it. If Cycle wave 2 is 116 days long, wave C would contribute 40 to 46 days of it. Primary wave C began on March 29, 2022. Potential end days based on this paragraph of analysis would be: 30 days is May 11 34 days is May 17 40 days is May 25 46 days is June 3 This means the bottom should occur no later than June 3. The length of Primary wave C tends to be 107% to 171% of Primary wave A’s length. With Primary A being 35 days long, C could be 37 to 60 days long. 37 days long would be May 20. Through the incorporation of the prior paragraph, wave C could possibly end between May 20 and June 3. PRICE TARGET Primary wave A’s movement tend to contribute 40-70% of the movement of the larger Cycle wave in which it resides. Primary wave A dropped 703.97 points. This means Cycle wave 2 could drop between 1005.67 and 1759.93 points putting the bottom between 3058.69 and 3812.95. Primary wave C tends to contribute 60-68% of the movement of the larger wave. If Cycle wave 2 drops 1005.67 points, wave C would drop 603.40 to 683.85 of it. This would place the bottom between 3953.45 and 4033.90. If Cycle wave 2 drops 1759.93 points, wave C would drop 1055.96 to 1196.75 of it. This would place the bottom between 3440.55 and 3581.34. So far, our probable bottom could lie between 3440.55 and 4033.90. Primary wave C’s movement also moves 126-196% beyond that of wave A. This means wave C could drop 887.00 points from where wave A began (4818.62 was starting point) to 1379.78. This would put the bottom between 3438.84 and 3931.62. Our bottom has now narrowed to between 3440.55 and 3931.62. Another statistic is the ratio between Primary wave A’s movement and Primary C. Wave A’s movement tends to be 0.63 to 1.35 times greater than wave C. This means wave C could drop between 521.456 and 1117.41. This would place the bottom between 3519.89 and 4115.84. Our bottom has now narrowed to between 3519.89 and 3931.62. Lastly, the ratio at which Primary wave B and wave C move in relation to wave A can also be considered. This ratio is normally 0.32 to 0.50. In the current scenario, wave B moved 74.24% of wave A’s movement. This means wave C could move 148.48% to 232.00% of wave A. This is calculated in relation to the level at which wave A started (4818.62). Wave C could drop 1045.25 to 1633.21 from 4818.62. This would put the bottom between 3185.41 and 3773.37. Based on all of the analysis found here, the bottom should occur between 3519.89 and 3773.37 during a timeframe between May 20 and June 3. I will provide at least one more analysis once I determine where Intermediate wave 3 occurred. If it occurred at the point identified, then intermediate wave 5 can last no longer than 7 days because that would be the length of the wave 3 which is the shortest wave. This would put the bottom no later than May 13, which heavily contradicts this entire analysis. This contradiction does not make sense which leads me to believe we will still experience a significant market drop this coming week.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
1
Buckle up as SPX history's ride is not overUpon research, waves ending in C33 (our current situation) perform wave extensions greater than 150.98% for the S&P 500 index. A cluster of wave extension maneuvers occur around 200% for this same dataset. Inside of Intermediate wave 3, where we should be now, we are also inside of Minor wave 3. Minor wave 1’s name structured ends in C31. It began shortly after the open on April 21 at 4512.94. It then dropped 312.12 points and ended before noon eastern time on April 25. Mathematically speaking 312.12 x 150.98% = 471.239. We would then take this value and subtract it from the level Minor wave 1 began from to determine a possible bottom for Minor wave 3. 150.98% could place the bottom around 4041.70. However, 150% is the minimum drop according to historical study of the index. The maximum drop is 401.66% of Minor wave 1 which would bound our possible drop here to 3259.28. I think we are safe from the latter, however, the most common drop zone is between 192.65% and 202.84%. I like strong pockets of data as long as they are realistic which is the case here. This means the index is not done with quick large drops. We could get below 3911.64 while remaining above 3879.84 within days. This is a minimum drop of 263.57 more points based on today’s close (3879.84 bottom = drop of 295.37).
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
4
The bottom is in sight, well sort of...Another wave completed (Intermediate 2) gives us a better idea of where Intermediate wave 3, Primary wave 3 and Cycle wave 2 will end. I now have us in Sub-Millennial wave 1 (began June 1877), Grand SuperCycle wave 5 (began March 6, 2009), SuperCycle wave 3 (began March 23, 2020), Cycle wave 2 (began January 4, 2022), Primary wave C (began March 29, 2022), Intermediate wave 3 (began April 21, 2022) and Minor wave 1. The shorthand for this wave is 1532C31 which is based on wave letters and numbers combined. We are either in Minor wave 1 or a sub-wave thereof (Minute wave 1 is the other likely wave). The first thing I have tried to complete is identifying the current sub-wave structure, but the past two days have almost traded in a straight diagonal movement downward. This below chart tries to identify impulse wave characteristics. My indicators at the bottom attempt to find the signals of a wave 3 and also look for the best agreement in the indicators. I have placed preliminary wave numerals on the chart as well, but these will most likely change as the wave plays out. The most agreement for wave 3 is shortly after noon Eastern time from Friday April 22. The most significant non-diagonal movement occurred at the end of the day on April 22. This could be the final drop in Minute wave 1 and possibly Minute wave 2 action culminating in the beginning of Minute wave 3. The sell-off on Friday does make a Monday rally possible, but it will not last long if it occurs. WHERE WILL INTERMEDIATE WAVE 3 END? The models have Intermediate wave 3 lasting 6, 7, 9, 12, 14, 15, 16, 17, or 19 trading days based on waves ending in 2C3. Model agreement above 21 is weak while the strongest agreement is on 7 trading days followed by 19 and then 16. Seven trading days would put the low on May 2. The Fed meets May 3-4 and will likely raise rates 0.75% or higher. The bottom may occur once their decision is public the final day. May the 4th be with you in finding the bottom. A method for finding the bottom include wave movement extensions from the respective wave 1 movement. Intermediate wave 1 began at 4637.30 and dropped 255.96. Typical Intermediate waves ending in 2C3 move 117.97 – 143.91% of what wave 1 moved. 143.91% would put the bottom at 4268.95. Friday’s low was 4267.62. The problem is that we are already at these levels and there is clearly more time in Intermediate wave 3. There are some historical outliers at 420% and 950%. A Fibonacci extension at 161.8% (4223.16) will occur too quickly as well. These outliers and our current drop hint that this method will not help. Scaling back and studying waves ending in C3 alter duration slightly. The most agreement is on 12 trading days followed by 7 and 19 days. Using the wave 1 movement extension method also provides more reasonable price targets which is 263 - 363% of wave 1’s movement. This would put the end of Intermediate 3 between 3706.73 – 3964.07. There is strong agreement between 3947 - 3964. This indicates we still have at least 300 plus points to drop over the next week or two. Intermediate wave 3 will ultimately be composed of 5 Minor waves. As each wave completes, I will continue to provide updates as to potential target bottoms and timeframes. WHERE WILL CYCLE WAVE 2 AND PRIMARY WAVE C END? CYCLE WAVE 1 DATA SAYS… Cycle wave 2 which began in January could last 45, 47, 49, 58, 68, 75, 78, 81, 85, 90, 95, 101, 104, 110, 111, 118, 125, or 150 trading days according to my models. Strongest model agreement is on 90 days. Wave 1’s length is usually 9.259 to 10.11 times larger than wave 2. This would have placed Cycle wave 2’s length around 45 days. The common smaller ratio for 1 to 2’s length is 2.529 to 4.333. This could put the length between 104-178 trading days. Friday April 22 was day 75 and we are clearly not done yet. Most C waves drop below the bottom of their wave A. Since Primary wave A bottomed at 4114.65, Primary wave C should drop to this level at a minimum. At the quickest we would be 2-3 days from this point, however, we are still in Minor wave 1 down and require a Minor wave 2 moving up. This means we are reasonably a week or two at the fastest from ending Cycle 2. My models are projecting even longer. All this to say, Cycle wave 2 will likely be longer than 90 trading days and likely over 100 in length. Overall projected price targets see the most agreement with a bottom around 3850, however the range of potential bottoms are strong between 3571 and 4075. Wave 2 tends to retrace the movement of wave 1 between 19.89% - 76.95%, with most occurring around 24 - 46%. With Cycle wave 1 gaining 2626.76, a retracement of these magnitudes would have the following bottoms for Cycle wave 2: 19.89% puts the bottom at 4296.157 25% = 4161.93 30% = 4030.592 35% = 3899.254 40% = 3767.92 45% = 3636.578 Wave 1’s movement in relation to wave 2 is typically 1.299 to 5.02 times larger. On average wave 1 is 3.138 times larger than wave 2 which could see a bottom around 3981.53. PRIMARY WAVE A DATA SAYS… Primary wave A’s length typically accounts for 19 – 38% of the overall length of the wave it resides inside. This could make Cycle wave 2 between 91 to 176 days long. A strong reoccurring pocket in this dataset could make it 91 to 118 days long. Primary wave A’s move commonly accounts for 70.81 – 79% of the larger wave’s movement. This could see Cycle wave 2 ending between 3824.45 – 3927.40. PRIMARY WAVE B DATA SAYS… Primary wave B’s length typically accounts for 12 – 50% of the overall length of the wave it resides inside. This could make Cycle wave 2 between 46 to 178 days long. Two strong reoccurring pockets in this dataset could make it 106 to 108 days long or 168 to 178 days long. Primary wave B’s move commonly accounts for 32.91 – 61.2% of the larger wave’s movement. This could see Cycle wave 2 ending between 3230.50 – 3964.62. A strong reoccurring pocket is 3230.50 to 3283.22. The strength of this pocket cannot be ignored; however, it appears to be an outlier next to all of the other potential bottoms throughout this analysis. It would also require Intermediate wave 3 and wave 5 to drop many hundreds of points beyond typical behavior to achieve it. INTERMEDIATE WAVE 1 DATA SAYS… Intermediate wave 1 tends to contribute around 27% to the length of the larger wave it resides inside. This means Primary wave C could last 37 days. This aligns with Cycle wave 2 lasting 95 days. On a targeted scale, Intermediate waves ending in C1 typically account for 5 – 41% of the larger wave in which they reside. This would have Primary wave C lasting between 24 and 190 days. The median length of Primary wave C could last 33 (making Cycle wave 2 - 91) days while the average would be 41 (Cycle wave 2 would be 99). INTERMEDIATE WAVE 2 DATA SAYS… Intermediate wave 2 tends to contribute around 10% to the length of the larger wave. This mean Primary wave C could last 55 days and end by mid-June. On a targeted scale, Intermediate waves ending in C2 typically account for 3 – 12% of the larger wave in which they reside. This would have Primary wave C lasting between 50 and 188 days. The median could be 72 days while the average is 55. These results appear much higher than other data and is among the least reliable for this analysis. Similarly considered on the movement side. The bottom for Cycle wave 2 could be between 1831 - 4457 with an average around 4207 and a stronger data pocket between 3911-4227. Based on the other information throughout the modeling and this analysis, the low end is most likely in this case. CONCLUSION The likely future is contained in this analysis. Intermediate wave 3 will finish first and my target based on this data somewhere around May 4 and below 3968. Wave 4 will briefly move up before we finalize the bear market near the end of May. My current expectations is the low will be no lower than 3600, but we shall see once Intermediate waves 3 and 4 end. I hope you like this and feel free to follow me for more.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler