3D went up, now it is time for the downThe algos triggered a sell signal. Let's see. The RSI triggered buy on the same day as an MTF sell. We have already rode up and now it is time for the sell side to kick in.
Legalsteals
Can we lose 6% this week?I am short this week. Long for the following three. Short for the four after it.
We should start strong on Monday and finally end Intermediate Wave 4 early. Right now the models point to a bottom by Friday, that bottom is projected for the 4160 mark. This would mark the final bottom for Primary wave A which has been the downtrend since the beginning of the year. Next week, not this week, we should begin massive upward moves which should last a little less than a month. Early estimates have the market gaining around 14% after we find the bottom this week. After Primary wave B tops, March would be a blood bath again, with early forecasts of the bottom occurring below 3650.
Its A TRAP!!!The market should finish Intermediate Wave 4 today, possibly in the morning before we head down again to Groundhog Day. My models have the most agreement around 4436 for the top so that is my conservative top for now. Wave 5 still needs to take us below Intermediate Wave 3's bottom of 4222.62. Earliest guess is a bottom south of 4100 and relatively quick. I will readjust once wave 4 data is finalized.
Great news for most of February as it is rally time. But the rally will be short-lived. Earliest forecasts are gains around 11% off the bottom but this could change. We have one more major fall set for end of February and most of March. After that we will work back toward all-time highs.
Regarding the gap this morning is Fed-hype, maybe hoping the "jobs data" will delay the Fed's action. But reality will set in after the meeting that inflation is out of control, hence the drop to end this month. Then short-term memory will forget the last month as large company earnings trickle out in February which likely paints a semi-rosier picture than what we had from the inflation fears. Inflation is here to stay, the new prices we pay today WILL BE the lowest prices we pay from here on. Businesses will not slash prices once people are accustomed to paying them and the businesses are complacent with the profits.
Rough Estimate of SuperCycle 3 EndThis is an estimate of SuperCycle 3's end based on Cycle 1's makeup of the larger wave. While we may be correcting currently, it certainly will not last forever, and big gains appear likely in the future. I currently project SuperCycle 3 to end between 6475 & 7253.05 sometime between 2024 - 2027.
I will continue to update this projection as more time passes.
Crashing or Correcting? I say...This appears to be perfectly in line with an expected correction. Cycle 1 just end at the beginning of January, which was about 2 earlier than my initial estimates but that is why I call them estimates. Cycle 2 should bottom around early March.
Historically speaking, the second Cycle wave retraces the length of its wave 1 by 10-23%. The largest retracement was 39%, but corrections appear to be quicker and steeper these days so I am sticking with the 10-23% range as the likely zone for this one. A 23% could have this wave last 104 days which is late May. I would call this retracement the least likely. This date can serve as the maximum possible bottom.
The majority of historical datapoints suggest the end of this Cycle wave could end 44-48 trading days after it begun. This is the early March endpoint, discussed above. I have painted these narrow zones based off of typical wave 2 retracements of wave 1. The major zones for the bottom are between 3989.09-4166.66, 3800-3989.09, and 3605.84-3800. My initial rough math guess was a bottom around 3636, but I am favoring the middle zone here. We still have hundreds of points to shave off the index so I expect the next months to be rocky.
Remember Cycle wave 2 is a 3-wave pattern down (in this case). That means wave A will be down, wave B will move up, I will provide better estimates on that soon. Lastly wave C will take us home to the bottom.
My second analysis will be where I project the current SuperCycle to end, based on the end of Cycle 1.
Markets Stay Green through ThanksgivingThe wave moved slower than planned, but this is great for the bulls. New target top is around December 2nd. Based on historical data when a wave 3 is in a wave 5 is in a wave 1 (which is where we are according to my current models) movement and length are as follows:
WAVE 1 to WAVE 3
The ratio between wave 1 and wave 3's length falls between 0.21 to 0.60. The average ratio is 0.444, with a mean around 0.47. When the macro wave is wave 1, the average is 0.43 and median is 0.53. When the macro wave is wave 3, average is 0.45 and median is 0.38. When the macro wave is wave 5 (which is the current case) the average and median is 0.47, but the amount of data is limited.
Wave 1 lasted 105 bars on a 15 minute chart. The "table" below highlights the ratios, potential bars wave 3 would last, and the end date. I have included the minimum and maximum values to attempt to bound the movement. I have included the more common ratios as the likely top resides in the 0.40s.
Ratio Bars End Date
0.21 500 (did not calculate--unlikely to occur)
0.38 276 December 3
0.43 244 December 2
0.44 238 December 2
0.45 233 December 2
0.47 223 December 1
0.53 198 November 30
0.60 175 November 30
WAVE 2 to WAVE 3
Following a similar concept, the ratio between wave 2 and wave 3's length falls between 0.05 to 0.23. The average ratio is 0.157, with a mean around 0.15. When the macro wave is wave 1, the average is 0.156 and median is 0.15. When the macro wave is wave 3, average is 0.143 and median is 0.15. When the macro wave is wave 5 (which is the current case) the average and median is 0.19, but the amount of data is limited.
Wave 2 lasted 39 bars on a 15 minute chart. The "table" below highlights the ratios, potential bars wave 3 would last, and the end date. I have included the minimum and maximum values to attempt to bound the movement. I have included the more common ratios as the likely top resides in the 0.40s.
Ratio Bars End Date
0.05 780 (did not calculate--unlikely to occur)
0.143 272 December 2
0.15 260 December 2
0.19 205 December 2
0.23 169 November 29
The most common area for Wave 3 to end was between December 1-3 which is why I choose December 2 as my target.
I used the same concept for determining price movement. Wave 1 moved 84.09 & wave 2 moved 42.17.
WAVE 1 to WAVE 3
Ratio Movement Projected Top
0.39 215.6154 4888.395
0.49 171.612 4844.39
0.73 115.192 4787.97
0.94 89.457 4762.24
1.30 64.6846 4737.47
WAVE 2 to WAVE 3
0.14 301.214 4973.99
0.23 183.3478 4856.13
0.25 168.68 4841.46
0.29 145.4138 4818.194
0.32 130.5573 4803.337
Another set of ratios I monitor are the retracements and extensions from prior waves. Wave 1 does not retrace or extend from anything that I track so here are the ratios between wave 2's retracement of wave 1 in relation to wave 3's extension of wave 1. Wave 2 retraced 50.15% of wave 1's movement. Wave 1 began at 4630.37 so the fourth column below adds the projected movement in column three to this beginning point to project a top.
Ratio Extension Move From Start Projected Top
0.09 557.0% 468.5682 5099.43
0.10 501.5% 421.7114 5052.57
0.11 455.9% 383.374 5014.234
0.15 334.3% 281.141 4912.001
0.20 250.75% 210.856 4841.72
0.25 200.60% 168.68 4799.55
0.27 185.7% 156.18 4787.05
I noticed a few chunks of similarities when considering all of this data. 4787, 4800, and 4841 could contain or be near the tops which I why the range is contained with these values in mind.
Wave 4 is speculation and I will update it as 3 takes more shape. I have this Minor 5 ending around December 8 using similar metrics. I am projecting this top for Minor 5 and Intermediate wave 1 around 4866. I will continue to update the track as more data comes in.
After this top, looking at a decline through end of year (maybe tax/capital gains implications in new laws). Then we should be up to April 2022 before a slightly longer decline (maybe a few months from top to bottom). I don't see the "Big One" coming until 2045 (for now).
My process is not perfect, but I keep learning from failed projections. Let me know what you think.
Where Does The Index Go From HereThis is the plan based on the daily data tracking back to 1877 (my projected beginning of the Grand SuperCycle for you EW followers). Looking at a solid market top around the month of April 2022. I have charted the likely ups and downs to it. For now, looking at a near-term top around this Friday at noon which should begin a roughly 13-15 trading day drop of about 221 to 261 points. All other points are estimates for now.
I plan to update this path as we move through it. Wave 3 could provide great opportunities. After April 2022 will likely see many rough months, but have no fear as all-time highs will be back....eventually.
The November Bulls Forgot Wave CSeptember was a perfect wave A down while October was wave B up. I projected the original top for Friday but we were still shy of 460. Today's open got us there. Wave B quickly retraced 100% of wave A without its internal 5 wave pattern so I set the next stop around 460.58 which was the Fib 123.6% extension. Additional wave analysis of wave C's internal 5 wave structure revealed two potential end points for wave 5. The first top would have been around 458.49 which would have been 100% of internal wave 3, the second is 114.6% of wave 3's movement at 460.71, with the third probable top at 123.6% at 462.08.
Today we saw a top at 460.70, which was 1 cent shy of one projected top and 12 cents higher than the first projection based on the main wave A's movement. ***IF THIS HOLDS*** we likely witnessed a correction wave described as an irregular/expanded flat. These typically have the final wave C move 123.6% to 161.8% of wave A's movement.
This puts the conservative bottom (123.6%) at 419.83 with a potential bottom as deep as 409.25. While this would not quite be a 10% drop, this will certainly catch all the bulls off guard. I think November will be red and maybe into or through December as well. I have typically found the length of wave C to be nearly that of A, but it is likely to fluctuate as it moves on. The current projection has us red into the first week in December but time will tell.
CAUSES:
Fed red? Inaction in Congress? Does Congress pass tax regulations forcing investors to pull out gains this year at a cheaper tax rate before major hikes next tax year?
I ultimately have the markets rebounding after this December bottom. However, the next drop around September-October 2022 will be very deep (not catastrophic yet--maybe the year 2029).
Imminent Drop For CHRW?Based on historical movement, the peak could occur anywhere in the larger red box for which we are due. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending bottom should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated SELL on October 19, 2021 with a closing price of 97.56.
If this instance is successful, that means the stock should decline to at least 95.8 which is the top of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock decline 3.929% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the top of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock decline 6.523% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock decline 12.32% from the signal closing price which is the bottom of the smaller green box. The maximum decline on record would see a move to the bottom of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well.
The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The trough of the decline can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max decline occurs within the limit of study at 35 trading bars after the signal. A 1% decline must occur over the next 35 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 7 trading bars; half occur within 13 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 25 trading bars.
The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement.
As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
Market Set To Drop, NTES With It?Based on historical movement, the peak could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending bottom should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated SELL on October 22, 2021 with a closing price of 102.24.
If this instance is successful, that means the stock should decline to at least 99.35 which is the top of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock decline 6.51% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the top of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock decline 10.27% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock decline 16.765% from the signal closing price which is the bottom of the smaller green box. The maximum decline on record would see a move to the bottom of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well.
The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The trough of the decline can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max decline occurs within the limit of study at 35 trading bars after the signal. A 1% decline must occur over the next 35 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 10 trading bars; half occur within 22 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 30 trading bars.
The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement.
As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
HIBB another near-term buy targetBased on historical movement, the trough could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending top should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated BUY on October 1, 2021 with a closing price of 70.74.
If this instance is successful, that means the stock should rise to at least 71.52 which is the bottom of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock rise 4.025% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the bottom of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock rise 7.296% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock rise 9.856% from the signal closing price which is the top of the smaller green box. The maximum rise on record would see a move to the top of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well.
The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The peak of the rise can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max rise occurs within the limit of study at 40 trading bars after the signal. A 0.5% rise must occur over the next 40 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 9 trading bars; half occur within 19 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 32 trading bars.
The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement.
As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
SWK is target for dip buying festivalBased on historical movement, the trough could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending top should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated BUY on October 1, 2021 with a closing price of 173.87.
If this instance is successful, that means the stock should rise to at least 174.83 which is the bottom of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock rise 2.089% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the bottom of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock rise 5.72% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock rise 9.332% from the signal closing price which is the top of the smaller green box. The maximum rise on record would see a move to the top of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well.
The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The peak of the rise can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max rise occurs within the limit of study at 40 trading bars after the signal. A 0.5% rise must occur over the next 40 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 5 trading bars; half occur within 17 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 37 trading bars.
The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement.
As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
Walmart should lead the way over the next month of reboundBased on historical movement, the trough could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending top should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated BUY on October 1, 2021 with a closing price of 137.05.
If this instance is successful, that means the stock should rise to at least 139.28 which is the bottom of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock rise 4.63% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the bottom of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock rise 7.686% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock rise 22.321% from the signal closing price which is the top of the smaller green box. The maximum rise on record would see a move to the top of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well.
The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The peak of the rise can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max rise occurs within the limit of study at 35 trading bars after the signal. A 1% rise must occur over the next 35 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 19 trading bars; half occur within 28 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 35 trading bars.
The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement.
As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
Crown Castle historically rides much higher; Will it happen now?The full analysis is well worth the read. CCI signaled BUY 2 days ago. The delay in upward movement is between 1-3 days (the median delay is 1 day). We are beginning the third day today which means upward movement should be imminent. Of the 15 times the RSI algorithm has signaled on the daily chart has lead to the stock rising a minimum of 11% over the next 35 trading days. If history holds true, that means the stock could rise to at least 195 which is a significant jump. Of course this may also be the occasion for the stock to move up and the minimum movement be more around the area of just a few percent.
Based on historical movement, the trough could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending top should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated BUY on September 28, 2021 with a closing price of 175.06.
If this instance is successful, that means the stock should rise to at least 195.49 which is the bottom of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock rise 15.451% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the bottom of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock rise 18.955% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock rise 28.996% from the signal closing price which is the top of the smaller green box. The maximum rise on record would see a move to the top of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well.
The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The peak of the rise can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max rise occurs within the limit of study at 35 trading bars after the signal. A 1% rise must occur over the next 35 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 12 trading bars; half occur within 28 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 32 trading bars.
The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement.
As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
What Does The Market Future Look Like? Look HereSo far Southern Company has moved with the market. Historics say we may move down a little more before moving up by November.
Based on historical movement, the trough could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending top should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated BUY on September 24, 2021 with a closing price of 63.16.
If this instance is successful, that means the stock should rise to at least 63.81 which is the bottom of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock rise 5.1% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the bottom of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock rise 6.235% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock rise 8.544% from the signal closing price which is the top of the smaller green box. The maximum rise on record would see a move to the top of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well.
The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The peak of the rise can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max rise occurs within the limit of study at 35 trading bars after the signal. A 1% rise must occur over the next 35 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 13 trading bars; half occur within 23 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 33 trading bars.
The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement.
As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
HLI to take a breather?Based on historical movement, the peak could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending bottom should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated SELL on September 24, 2021 with a closing price of 95.39.
If this instance is successful, that means the stock should decline to at least 94.85 which is the top of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock decline 2.084% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the top of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock decline 3.597% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock decline 6.123% from the signal closing price which is the bottom of the smaller green box. The maximum decline on record would see a move to the bottom of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well.
The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The trough of the decline can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max decline occurs within the limit of study at 40 trading bars after the signal. A 0.5% decline must occur over the next 40 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 12 trading bars; half occur within 31 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 38 trading bars.
The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement.
As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
Union Pacific Signaling Buy Train AheadBased on historical movement, the trough could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending top should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated BUY on September 17, 2021 with a closing price of 201.93.
If this instance is successful, that means the stock should rise to at least 203.49 which is the bottom of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock rise 2.45% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the bottom of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock rise 5.132% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock rise 9.312% from the signal closing price which is the top of the smaller green box. The maximum rise on record would see a move to the top of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well.
The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The peak of the rise can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max rise occurs within the limit of study at 40 trading bars after the signal. A 0.75% rise must occur over the next 40 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 22 trading bars; half occur within 32 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 38 trading bars.
The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement.
As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
Another Big Pharma Finding The BottomBased on historical movement, the trough could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending top should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated BUY on September 17, 2021 with a closing price of 38.93.
If this instance is successful, that means the stock should rise to at least 39.62 which is the bottom of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock rise 4.748% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the bottom of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock rise 6.534% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock rise 9.869% from the signal closing price which is the top of the smaller green box. The maximum rise on record would see a move to the top of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well.
The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The peak of the rise can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max rise occurs within the limit of study at 35 trading bars after the signal. A 1% rise must occur over the next 35 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 20 trading bars; half occur within 30 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 33 trading bars.
The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement.
As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
Baidu Finding a Bottom SoonBased on historical movement, the trough could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending top should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated BUY on September 17, 2021 with a closing price of 161.86.
If this instance is successful, that means the stock should rise to at least 163.12 which is the bottom of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock rise 3.595% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the bottom of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock rise 7.5065% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock rise 11.633% from the signal closing price which is the top of the smaller green box. The maximum rise on record would see a move to the top of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well.
The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The peak of the rise can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max rise occurs within the limit of study at 40 trading bars after the signal. A 0.5% rise must occur over the next 40 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 8.0 trading bars; half occur within 25.0 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 37.0 trading bars.
The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement.
As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
Atomos Energy Will Bottom SoonBased on historical movement, the trough could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending top should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated BUY on September 15, 2021 with a closing price of 89.56.
If this instance is successful, that means the stock should rise to at least 91.07 which is the bottom of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock rise 4.175% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the bottom of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock rise 7.193% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock rise 18.853% from the signal closing price which is the top of the smaller green box. The maximum rise on record would see a move to the top of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well.
The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The peak of the rise can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max rise occurs within the limit of study at 35 trading bars after the signal. A 1% rise must occur over the next 35 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 16 trading bars; half occur within 24 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 30 trading bars.
The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement.
As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
Bristol-Myers Squibb Set To Rise, ButLooks like a little more downside is possible through remainder of month, but BMY is primed for a very strong October if the algorithms are correct and history continues to be accurate.
Based on historical movement, the trough could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending top should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated BUY on September 15, 2021 with a closing price of 62.0.
If this instance is successful, that means the stock should rise to at least 62.9 which is the bottom of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock rise 3.9935% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the bottom of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock rise 6.5875% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock rise 10.224499999999999% from the signal closing price which is the top of the smaller green box. The maximum rise on record would see a move to the top of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well.
The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The peak of the rise can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max rise occurs within the limit of study at 35 trading bars after the signal. A 1% rise must occur over the next 35 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 6.5 trading bars; half occur within 19.0 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 31.0 trading bars.
The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement.
As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
Schwab Set For Quick Bounce? Based on historical movement, the trough could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending top should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated BUY on September 9, 2021 with a closing price of 73.0.
If this instance is successful, that means the stock should rise to at least 73.65 which is the bottom of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock rise 3.444% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the bottom of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock rise 5.3515% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock rise 9.7635% from the signal closing price which is the top of the smaller green box. The maximum rise on record would see a move to the top of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well.
The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The peak of the rise can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max rise occurs within the limit of study at 40 trading bars after the signal. A 0.75% rise must occur over the next 40 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 12.5 trading bars; half occur within 25.5 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 35.5 trading bars.
The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement.
As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
