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Lehmanbrothers

Is Evergrande the next Lehman Brothers ??China`s economic model is based on real estate investment to drive growth. 20 Mil apartment buildings per year. China`s residential property is 20% of GDP every year. Too much! Real estate activities in China close to 30% of GDP every year. Huge! Chinese Government is Bashing the private sector, look at GOTU and BABA for example. Evergrande, second largest property developer in China has more than $300 billion in debt! Evergrande has $83.5 million interest payment Sept. 23 and a $42.5 million payment on Sept. 29 Failure to to pay in 30 days can put Evergrande in default. Today Evergrande has a Market Cap of 30.099B! At its peak, Evergrande was traded 13.5X higher! Evergrande’s potential debt blowup can send shock waves through financial markets! Today was just the beginning.
HKEX:3333Short
by TopgOptions
11
Future of Safe Haven currencies --> Flashback to 2008 analysis Hi all! This is my idea on the future of the so-called Safe Haven currencies. Remember, people in the need of defense against coming inflation turn into currencies or gold as they do not have much knowledge or energy for other assets. This is why good analysis is needed to see in what currency to invest. In the post-crisis period (4 years), both sides, the euro, and dollar initially behaved the same, reducing from their "crisis" peaks. In the longer term, the euro was most stable, consolidating in the upper/middle limits of the crisis. In turn, the dollar was marked by a stronger initial correction (it lasted about 260 days after the economy calmed down), then the rate accounted for fluctuations due to uncertainty. Frank had the best percentage return, moreover, it did not experience such corrections as the dollar in the same period. Look at the graph and compare the marked period, you will see that all three currencies behave more the same as in 2008. Key Facts: - the franc earned the most but the value of covid financial aid is unprecedented, - the dollar did not repeat the history in 100% and fell below the pre-covid rate (a chance for an increase), - printing the dollar does not help its rate, rather flooding the capital market with cash (blowing a bubble). I encourage you to do your own analysis based on your home currency, I used zloty as the second currency in the pair. Feel free to comment, give your thoughts. Would appreciate it if you like it! Disclaimer! This post does not provide financial advice. Always do your own analysis. Be aware that only you are responsible for your trades. Trade safe and keep in mind the risk!
by AGAdam
1
Is Gold Losing It's Relevance?Looking at some of the historic phases we were in (Dot.com Bubble, Real-Estate Bubble) and the current Zero-Interest Bubble, the M1 money stock and the development of the S&P500 the question arises if gold is losing it's relevance as safe haven. Given the explosion of central bank money and the clear trend to govern by central bank monetary policy one would expect gold should already show clear signs of strength and grow in value. After the Dot.com bubble burst gold was in demand. After the real estate bubble burst gold was in demand. Then something happened. 9/11 and the "War on Terror" and continued M1 money stock or cheap central bank money flooding. Gold lost value continuously. Up until SARS-CoV2 and the Great Reset strategies being executed. With the sudden drop in oil prices in Feb. 2020 and Covid-19 being used to create quite a fear monster gold was in high demand. But gold was put in check (for now) again by the central banks. This time with crazy rocket parabolic money supply explosion. Now the question will be will central banks be able to contain the monsters they summoned by their strategies and keep the world economy afloat even when in the next couple of month the economic bad news will become visible and will have to be managed? Will the shy money seek yet another time gold as a safe haven? Any of the yellow continuation arrow trends for gold seem possible. Note it does appear historically more likely that gold will rise to new heights. Gold remains a valid portion of any portfolio. At what percentage and what shape (physical or digital ) is up to each of us to decide for ourselves.
TVC:GOLDLong
by CarpeMomentum
6