+GFI / -HAR pairNew pairs trade from @Lester_Davids.
We are buying JSE:GFI and shorting JSE:HAR ratio 1.6066.
GFI is ex Div in two days (R0.60) so keep this in mind.
Lesterdavids
South African Retailer PairRetailer pairs idea from @Lesater_Davids
+SHP / -WHL at 2.0330 with a target of 2.235 and SL of 1.932
UK100Unum Capital: Technical Trade Ideas - FTSE100 and GBPUSD
Dear Trader
This morning the UK's FTSE 100 Index Future and GBP/USD feature among my trade ideas.
FTSE 100 Index Future (Buy/Long)
Over last few weeks the British Pound has rallied on the back of positive developments in the UK around Brexit. We have also seen some positive data being released which include: (1) GDP higher by 0.6% as well as (2) average earnings including bonuses increasing by 2.6%. While this has been positive for the currency, the FTSE has come under pressure as a result of large capitalization multi-nationals being dragged down as earnings and revenue expectations diminish on the back of a stronger Pound.
With the index now looking oversold and finding support on the channel trend line and at the 61.8% Fibonacci level, traders could look to take a buy/long position on a potential rebound.
These are the trade levels:
Buy/Long FTSE100 Future at current levels 7280
Stop-loss: 7235
Take Profit Target: 7400
Flash note: Hang Seng 50 Future/Tencent + ADR /NasperAccording to Lester Davids, Trading Desk analyst at Unum Capital:
"Some positivity on the Tencent Chart - Could be a driver tomorrow.
- Bullish Divergence
- Extended well below it's 200dma (HK$404)
- Chinese market sentiment overwhelming negative"
Contact the Trading Desk on +27 (0)11 3842920 or tradingdesk@unum.co.za to discuss.
Platinum pairRobbyP, on our Unum Capital Trading desk, asked me look at Implats (IMP) vs Amplats (AMS) for a pairs trade.
Unfortunately this trend doesn't look like it has reversed, so I'm staying away.
Research: Short/Sell Sugar (PENDING)Lester Davids, our Trading Desk analyst, is bullish on sugar over the medium term, but in the short term there may have a potential short/sell.
Interesting that all the softs (except wheat) have all moved together. Possibly look to accumulate a basket of softs on a bit of a pull back.
Flash Note: Aspen Pharmacare (APN)Last week Lester highlighted APN as as "opportunistic buy" after the fall from R290.
It looks like R263 to 264 is still a level where buyers have lined up to take advantage of the fall. This is also in line with the 50dma.
Once again stay cognizant of the USDZAR.
MariusGrobler301 is having a look at this trade for our clients.
Flash note: Massmart (MSM)"On Wednesday the share tested and rebounded off the prior swing lows between 102 and 103.50. This appears to be a range-trading opportunity, with the upside target being the prior highs of 119. " Lester Davids, Trading Desk analyst, Unum Capital.
Keep an eye on USDZAR as this will continue to impact South African retailers.
Potential Trade Idea: Long Heating Oil/Short NatGasRecently our Unum Trading Desk analyst, Lester Davids identified a potential pairs trade on Heating Oil and Nat Gas.
"I am bullish on NatGas with a medium term view. We recently saw a break of the downward trend with an inverse head and shoulder developing. In the short term though, we could see a pullback following the breakout. On that basis, one could be short NG and Long Heating Oil."
We decided to wait for a better entry level on the medium term trade, rather than playing the ultra-short term reversal. It is now approaching our entry point.
On the NG chart:
"NG is approaching incline support around the $2.77 level. We also have horizontal support near $2.74. Potential buy/long opportunity. Keep on the watchlist for possible entry."
For the pair we want to LONG NG and SHORT Heating Oil.
If you want more details on the trade email tradingdesk@unum.co.za
Research: US Dollar Index FuturesFlash note from Lester Davids, Unum Trading Desk analyst:
"US Dollar Index Futures(DXY): The recent price tick-up (since 30-Aug) appears very similar to the move from 27-Nov-2017 to 11-Dec-2017 - marked with grey arrows. On this basis I would caution against on being very long the USD - of which spec positioning is very long. "
S&P500 Futures - Six-Day Horizontal Support BreachedFlash note from Lester Davids, Unum Trading Desk analyst:
"This looks like a short/sell opportunity on the S&P500 Futures: 2894 has held for 6 days. Now this level is breaking down. Current level: 2890."
Research: Sell The New DawnAn interesting research note this morning from our Unum Trading Desk analyst, Lester Davids:
"Since November 2017, South African citizens have become accustomed to hearing the term "New Dawn" - a reference to the expected change in the country's fortunes due to the change political leadership.
From the onset of the handover, a new wave of optimism ensued with financial market participants voting with their feet and stomping their way into the local currency.
The Rand (USDZAR), which had started to naturally weaken in the run-up to the ANC's elective conference toward the end of last year, saw a huge gain as the elected candidate was perceived to bring a positive change to the ailing South African economy.
From November 2017 to early in 2018, the Rand strengthened from a low of R14.58 to a high of R11.50, putting some pressure on South Africa's Rand hedge shares and weighing on the overall index."
Unfortunately, the "New Dawn" honeymoon looks over, as negative local economic news, and EM weakness has returned the Rand to previous highs (vs the USD)
Flash note: SappiSappi (SAP) chart from Lester Davids, Unum Capital Trading Desk analyst.
Daily Chart: Now at resistance and looking slightly stretch.
Weekly: Building an Inverse H&S
Flash note: Telkom - Triple Breakaccording to our Unum Trading Desk analyst, Lester Davids, "TKG is making a triple break: the 50dma, 200dma and nearly through the downward trend line. "
Caution on BID at current levelsLester Davids, Trading Desk analyst at Unum Capital is cautious of BID at current levels (R303.64)
- Price currently testing overhead trend line resistance
- While we are yet to see the closing price, we currently print a bearish engulfing candle - potentially similar to the prior tests of resistance.
Flash note: PSG GroupFlash note on PSG from our Unum Trading Desk analyst, Lester Davids.
"Around current levels, PSG is showing a technical willingness to break above the resistance level of R235, which is just below the 200-day moving average. The price has started to make higher lows and is trading above the 21 and 50-day moving average, both of which are pointing higher. With the 200dma at resistance, it is possible for the price to re-test the upward trend line before regaining the 200dma."
For more information contact the Unum Trading Desk on +27 (0)11 384 292, tradingdesk@unum.co.za or our real-time chat t.me
Flash note: spar Group (SPP)According to our Trading Desk analyst, Lester Davids, there is a "srong move out of the inverse H&S however we could encounter some resistance around the R212 level."
Contact the Unum Trading Desk on tradingdesk@unum.co.za for more details.
Break-out and retest (BAT & LHC)A short technical note from our Unum Trading Desk analyst, Lester Davids.
"On the Brait (BAT) chart, following the test and breakout of the downward trend line, the price has given us a small 3-day pullback, with a positive close yesterday. The RSI is starting to move out of oversold territory so there could be a potential buy/long opportunity on the share .
A great recent example of a breakout and re-test was Life Healthcare (LHC) on the right hand chart."
If you want to chat about these charts, or any local South Africa stocks, contact our Unum Trading Desk on tradingdesk@unum , call +27 (0)11 384 2920 or live chat with us on t.me
