Microstructural phenomenons: re-positioning 4 real, levels can't be re-positioned, but there's a lil detail.
As explained in "Real levels: positioning and clearing", positioned levels can't switch direction, ie once a level was positioned as support it can't become a resistance, once a level was positioned as resistance it can't become a support. A positioned level can only be cleared with time, price or volume.
However, there are things that do exist and not based on the ways of the system behavior, but rather on some lil details how the sub-systems and the super-system work.
Aye aye, easy, a level can switch directing for a very specific and short period of time, but not due to the principles of how things work, rather by a microstructural reasons. The reason is all of us & common sense. When we scale in near a positioned level, but shortly after it becomes obvious with evidence that a level was consumed/cleared (ie there's no more level anymore), in most occasions there's no reason to take a loss right away, it makes sense to try scaling out at around break-even.
1879 was positioned as support in the end of march 2022, the same time 1788 was discovered as a back level of 1879.
Point 1: we enter @ ~ the level;
Point 2: the level gets definitely proved as a cleared one;
Point 3: we leave at break-even, concentrating the liquidity around 1879 (~ when we've entered);
Point 4: we see the result, a pop.
If we would've dropped much deeper than 1788 (technically said, if we would've contacted another deeper level), that phenomenon would've never occurred (there would've been no1 to scale out at breakeven).
Level2
SPX Loss 9-30-22 Too early SPX Loss 9-30-22 Too early
Today attempted buying and loss after jumping in too early with a tight SL. Only used about an 1/8th of my normal lot size so the loss is nothing major at all. Was looking for a move off of the 15m+FVG and it moved instead off of the 15m+OB. Wasn't being patient this morning with this setup and jumped in before the orders came through.
NAS orders didn't come in until the 9:45am candle and I entered the trade around the open ahead of the orders. A little more patience and I at least get to close at BE. So today was a missed trade on the drop and a small L. I'll take that!
SPX 9-30-22 News push missNews release dropped us but no clean entry until you get down to the 1m chart. Missed this drop but I'm okay with that. NAS is driving the charts today so far and not a lot of orders have come in on SPX so far. I'm going to sit on this for now until I see something heavy on the bid or ask before I do anything this morning.
SPX Sell 9/28/22SPX Sell 9/28/22
Didn't get a chance to post it and its already at BE and target 1
Adjusted SL on the open to 3688
Partialed at target 2
Mid-week expectation valid and from the highs we have dropped to the area we though it would push to. The question is still, do we stay inside the candle from yesterday on the daily (candle made this week's high and low)?
CPI tomorrow will probably be a good move.
SPX top down short 9/29/22So far we've rejected the weekly high and pushed down into the LTF points of interest. Going into the premarket and NY session I'll be looking for signs of rejection to return to the upside or a continuation of the overall trend.
Mostly favoring a neutral to bearish point of view on this but I don't mind reacting on movement to the upside for a buy if the level 2 data confirms it
SPX Breakeven 9/19/22Moved my SL too early and flushed out at BE.
Not a lot of volume on SPX shown until 10:02am at the TDO. NAS showed the volume kick in just before the bell and 9:32am was the actual move up.
NAS made a HL while SPX and US30 both made LL on the daily charts. Then on the 4H we saw the first up candle and price held inside of that candle with volume to the upside.
Things to improve:
Trade management, leave my SL alone, it's there for a reason. When risk is properly established then there should not be a reason to make any adjustments to it. Needed to practice a bit more patience.
Things done well:
The setup, building this hypothesis was well thought out. Both side of the possibility for a continued sell and a rejection buy were setup.
Risk management, even if I'd loss the entire trade I was only wagering 0.25% on the trade
EFPO sell side pressure in the short-runTesting a strategy using Level 2 order flow with technicals. This stock has a gap up and order flow is showing huge orders on the sell side (outflow 108 vs inflow of 104) which shows the supply side is taking over for the very short-term. It's better to put in a limit sell order to wait for the price to reach before getting a fill. MACD is also showing overbought signal with crossover.
S&P500 Taking A Breather Pricing In Inflation And Tapering
The higher US CPI read of 6.2 % YoY lead to a spike in US10Y and a small sell off in the ES. As of now the uptrend remains intact and as long as we do not get a close below 4300 I am looking for long entries.
Buy at or around 4552 if support holds or buy break and close above 4713 resistance.
Looking at the order book we can see a lot more sell orders between 4662 up to 4675 vs much less buying orders below 4659 down towards 4612.
CME_MINI:ES1!
$ALGO Symmetrical TriangleRSI is showing strength maintaining above the 46 level. The 50-day MA passed up through the 200-day MA signifying a Golden Cross.
MACD doesn't look the greatest but does appear to be moving in the right direction.
Scenario A: break-out of the triangle, zoom towards previous ATH, contend with it momentarily and then make new ATH
Scenario B: breakdown out of the triangle, fall towards 200-day MA or previous support.
Which scenario do you think is more likely?
Imagine when ALGO gets the market cap of ADA or SOL... Algorand would be at about $11 if that were the case based on current market caps at the time of this post.
Weekly Chart:
OMG - its probably in vol contraction mode now.OMG - its probably in vol contraction mode now. but just in case. LONG AND STRONG.