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Leverage

Respecting RiskA friend of mine send me a question yesterday, "hey, curious question. how much was the a great day / swing/ scalp trader looking to make per day prior to Bitcoin?" This was my answer yesterday: That's an invalid question to ask a real trader. A trader takes what the market gives them. One may go days, weeks, perhaps a month without a signal that fits their rules that they have tested to be successful. A big part of being a trader is patience and staying true to their system that they have confidence in. A lot of "trading education" advertises "Make $XXX per day" but I'd be very wary of them. That's marketing I think in many cases to draw people in because it's something their customers can understand and desire. The reality is that a real trader goes through ups and downs and you just have to take a month-by-month or even year-by-year approach. I have had a great year. But I had a crappy October. I lost money in October straight up. But it's ok because this month I'm recovering. That's just the way it goes. Another reason I don't particularly like that way of looking at it is because I think you have to look at gains in % terms. Someone making $100/day on a $100,000 account is very different from someone making $100/day on a $1,000 account. The first is making 0.1% and the other is making 10%. To make 10% the trader has to take on much bigger risk relative to their account size. More risk = bigger losses when they inevitably occur. It's more important to focus on having good risk adjusted returns rather than dollar amount because if you build the skills to have good risk management all you have to do then is grow steadily. I get a little verbose when I'm asked simple questions about trading because it's my thing and I want to make sure to dump all I know on folks so that they can know the TRUTH. My friend followed up today with a revision to his question which I answered and made this annotated demonstration above. Thanks, you’re right, I should’ve framed the question better. Would your answer be different if I framed the same question as a percentage return regardless of principle investment? That is a much better way to frame it but then that still opens the question of risk. You simply must take on more risk (of loss) to get more return (of gain). There's really no way around that. The billion dollar hedge funds are like the pro athletes of trading. If they make over 10%/year rich people and retirement funds will invest millions with them. That is considered really good returns at that level of the game. Basically if you beat the "6-7% average yearly return of just investing in the stock market" you're winning. What the S&P500 does that year is called the Benchmark. So beating the benchmark means you're better than what everyone else is doing. If you fail to beat the benchmark then you've failed that year. That's sort of how the NBA of trading goes. Being a smaller trader on a smaller account you actually have advantages they don't. You can be faster, more agile, take on more risk, not be restricted by size and not kept down by regulations. So you can do better than 10% for sure. But I think a lot of people want to double their account in a year. This is possible to a seasoned trader for sure but it's dangerous. I usually say to that "something that can double your account one way can cut it in half the other way". That's the nature of risk in trading. There is also the factor of what you're trading and when you're trading. Trading crypto this year someone could have definitely doubled their account just going long anything. But what about if you'd started in January and been trading the big down move. We all know that there are down moves and that's what I mean by risk. You will take hits and the bigger your position the bigger the gains... but the bigger the hits. The only way to stay in the game is to stay tight with the risk and that means giving up some of the big YOLO potential. There is no easy answer is what I'm getting at. It's a game. That is a much better way to frame it but then that still opens the question of risk. You simply must take on more risk (of loss) to get more return (of gain). There's really no way around that. The billion dollar hedge funds are like the pro athletes of trading. If they make over 10%/year rich people and retirement funds will invest millions with them. That is considered really good returns at that level of the game. Basically if you beat the "6-7% average yearly return of just investing in the stock market" you're winning. What the S&P500 does that year is called the Benchmark. So beating the benchmark means you're better than what everyone else is doing. If you fail to beat the benchmark then you've failed that year. That's sort of how the NBA of trading goes. Being a smaller trader on a smaller account you actually have advantages they don't. You can be faster, more agile, take on more risk, not be restricted by size and not kept down by regulations. So you can do better than 10% for sure. But I think a lot of people want to double their account in a year. This is possible to a seasoned trader for sure but it's dangerous. I usually say to that "something that can double your account one way can cut it in half the other way". That's the nature of risk in trading. There is also the factor of what you're trading and when you're trading. Trading crypto this year someone could have definitely doubled their account just going long anything. But what about if you'd started in January and been trading the big down move. We all know that there are down moves and that's what I mean by risk. You will take hits and the bigger your position the bigger the gains... but the bigger the hits. The only way to stay in the game is to stay tight with the risk and that means giving up some of the big YOLO potential. There is no easy answer is what I'm getting at. It's a game. Let me illustrate this for you. So let's say you bought Bitcoin on January 1, 2020 with 3 different "risk profiles". You could have just bought 1 Bitcoin, with cash, for 7170, and held. Or you could have taken 2x Leverage meaning you only put down $3585 Or you could have done 3x which means you put down $2390. If you'd held those positions you would have done as the chart shows above. 3x would have blown your account... you wouldnt have been in the position to make gains by the end because you got margin called. 2x You'd be sitting on 4x your money... but at one point you'd been looking at an 88% loss. 1x and you'd taken a hit but by the end you're doing pretty good. Believe it or not... I've been trading so long and taken so many hits... that I don't even do 1x. I do something like 0.5x most of the time. I just have a strong respect for risk AND I'm trying to put myself on that level of the NBA players of Hedge funds and how they do things.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by norok
4
Bitcoin break, about timeIm watching a few things closely on Bitcoin right now. We are parabolic once again although not super extended we are definitely stretched right now so expecting a snap back sooner or later. For some time BTC has been pegged to the reaction to the DXY and the only thing i was really watching for was to see BTC break significant levels to start seeing organic buying on the charts to break the PEG to the DXY and i believe the break about 12k was what we needed and we are finally starting to see bitcoin move on its own. Although parabolic runs can be exciting there normally met with a heavy retrace shortly after so i dont get to excited apart from the fact it presents great trading opportunities for us leverage traders. Right now im expecting a push over the next few days maybe late sunday to see some volatility enter and hit the 13800 mark. As i mentioned we are over extended and parabolic so just waiting for us to hit that key level and then expect a heavy retracement. I will be looking back to the previous consolidation zone as a liquidity pool to reopen long after the sell off somewhere between 11300 and 12000. Happy hunting yall
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by DeNomics
2
IOTA ready for an impulse?I kind of feel like something is brewing here on IOTA from a market structure point of view. Its a bit of a long term call but its building sweet structure on the higher time frames for 2 really good impulse moves. 1. A break above the current resistance will see us free of a lot of market structure an possibly see a big push to 2 significant supply blocks. 2. Another rejection at this resistance level will see a possible break in trend as short sellers come in to push momentum down back to the previous pivot low. Im going to play this one on 2 accounts for a hedge, I'll be opening a long on trend next time it comes close and then keeping an eye on it pushing through resistance, if it breaks trend ill pull the pin due to invalidation. When it gets to resistance again ill be opening a short on a second account and waiting for the break in trend, if it breaks above resistance ill close the trade due to invalidation. will update when we get some action.
by DeNomics
Dynex - where to next?Thanks for viewing, Wow, some interesting keywords in their business description; - LEVERAGED buyer of CMBS products (as you know, leverage works both ways. To juice gains or to ensure out-sized losses), - ADJUSTABLE-RATE mortgages (I suppose not so bad - unless interest rates increase which to be fair seems unlikely right now), - office buildings, retail, hospitality, and healthcare (all sectors hit super hard by the current health crisis. Healthcare because everyone is cancelling elective procedures - where all the money is made). Default rates of CMBS products above 10% in June 2020 www.cpexecutive.com but have reduced somewhat in the 2 months following. I'm sure that is good news - unless the reduction was due to "forbearance" - when banks just allow a break in payments of overdue accounts (no chance of a debt default if you don't call in your debts). Around half of the increase from ~2 to over 10% delinquency was from mortgages over 90 days overdue and at least part of the decline was due to banks deciding not to require payments (for some undetermined amount of time). Its like 2009 again - just replace CDO with CMBS and residential with commercial property. Asset backed securities are great - unless the value of the underlying asset declines significantly - which it has. I don't know where it will go, up down or sideways All I know is it is in a down-trend and the return in no way reflects the massive risk. It seems tailor made to get flattened by the current environment.. AVOID AVOID AVOID. Or buy, its up to you. Maybe the Fed will bail it out.
NYSE:DXShort
by flyinkiwi10
Bitcoin elliot wave ABC correction next?Recently we been playing the long game, yet is it time for people to suffer? Longs have dumped today and shorts are recovering drastically, yet bitcoin trends sideways. On market close bitcoin pumped to 11300 a target I had as a mid ground or fair value of a pump to these levels, yet at the same time we created a cme gap. I know we didn't fill the last one, yet since we are so close to it wick down the candle isn't out of the realm of possibilities. News -White house released a new package of 1.8trillion dollars, yet over the weaken Nancy rejected it (probably political so the dems can run on republicans not giving enough). Has the market factored in no stimulas? Well no it factored in when trump said no stimulus, yet was greeted with we will try next week. WIth Nancy rejecting the new one it is possible on market up we could see the dump. TA -Elliot wave as you can see on the pump looks like a classic pump of the 1,2,3,4,5 elliot wave with a correction of a 1,2,3 or a,b,c on how elliot waves work. -MACD looks like it was to turn over bullish -50EMA had held us at support, yet the range of 11272 is our support line that we got inchs away. -RSI is heading to overbought and is in a downtrend. If RSI can't hit 63.88 or hold above 48.50 we are bearish. Final thoughts Taking a small short now may be the play atm for a correction, yet it is uncertain if you want to take the risk if you believe the global markets don't give a dam or you don't care about cme gaps. I'm taking a small portion of my btc to take that risk with a low risk, yet high reward play.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by nathanielx9
1
Trading Psychology: Over Leveraged Trading Hello traders: Welcome back for a quick educational video on over leveraged trading. This ties with Trading Psychology greatly, and I want to elaborate on this a bit more to give new and experienced traders my understanding on this topic. It's important to know that leverage can work for you as well as against you. You may already hear this a lot when you open a new broker account. However, it's only when you actually start trading then you will understand the true meaning of this. When you enter a trade with leverage, you are entering with a great risk behind if you don't have proper risk management. Since leverage is a “double edge sword”, trades that are in profit or losses will be magnified. You are easily over traded, meaning you can have multiple entries on the same pair or same move/run. Again, this would be nice if the trades are going in your favor, but if not then you are going to have a huge drawdown of your account. Professional traders understand drawdown is evitable, but they also minimize it so when they are in profit, they can easily make the drawdown backs. Let's take an example of what an over leveraged trading combine with trading psychology could look like: ---enter a trade, and with a big position (no risk management, and not consistent with trading plan) ---begin to see price fall, then either he/she will have a SL and get taken out, or no SL then price will continue to drop then the small account is gone in no time due to the big position. ---If he/she did have a SL, then they are taken out, but just lost a bigger % of their account. Now the emotions kick in to try to “chase” the money back. So revenge trading emotions start. ---Because the account has high leverage, the person can easily open a bigger lot position, double the previous one in fact (same strategy out there says to do this) and make back your losses. If first trade was risking 5%, then this next trade is 10%) ---After several losses, the account is already cut in ½, and he/she can no longer open the high lot positions. ---They will then reduce their position size, but still at maximum leverage allows. ---Soon the account will get blown out, and the person will either blame the market, strategy, lesson and more. I see this cycle of trading all the time in new traders, and it has a combination factor such as emotion, mindset, risk management, trading plan and more. But what is easily controlled by you is to reduce leverage allowed on the account. Simply dropping it down to less leverage will help the trader to not over leverage, and maintain a few trades only with smaller position sizes. So, I encourage the new traders to really think about this topic and reflect on yourself to see if you ever fall into this cycle before. You may not blow your account, but certainly have experienced revenge trading and over leverage trade when the emotions kick in. I myself included it at the beginning of my trading journey also. That is all I gotta say on this one. Let me know if you have questions and feedback :) I will chat with everyone next time in my live stream. Thank you
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by jojofang0901
24