BTC-USD 1 hourly symmetrical triangle Breakout/BreakdownBTC-USD
Looking out for something like this scenerio.
I open little positions on flipping support in resistence (short) and when flipping resistence in support (long)
And i scale higher when breaking previous lows/highs.
You can see the symmetrical triangle also on the 4 hourly,
In a few hours, we are at the end of the apex , and a big move is likely!
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Leverage
Bitcoin Bullish ProjectionRed lines: resistance levels
Green lines: support range
Yellow Dashed: Range that I believe will make the bounce / reversal
VPVR on the left for better display of resistance / support levels
Circled points: Similarities of L shape formations where Bullish Rally followed.
Based on the VPVR and the repetition of the circular formations, I make the bullish projection for the price of bitcoin after the end of the bear wave (-15% ~ -20%) from the rejection at $ 48,000.
Market makers looking to trap more bears?If we look back at past PA, we can see how MMs break trend to increase shorting to spike in their face.. low volume this weekend could be a nice fakeout setup for monday. targets around 43
mms=market makers
see my indicator pvsra volume suite for more definition
(TQQQ) breakout or bustThe chances of a daily bull pennant increases with every daily higher low we make. Holding 4500 spx es1! Emini s&p futures withstanding and moving toward the week high would the odds of getting to $64 TQQQ skyrocket. Staying over vwma and bottom anchored vwap having no qqe short entry would be very bullish. Channel break strategies say buy over rising support, sell if we break Thursdays low.
spx getting to oversold (SPXL)we are in technical conditions of a selloff and risk averse activity is driving the market. defensive sectors are even doing poorly. there is no reason to think price action will turn around here, vut the price doesnt go anywhere in a straight line. at least one last trip up to mid or upper 95s is a valid target.
you guessed it: overbought vix (UVXY)this thing has pumped all day and is getting tired. UVXY is overbought on the 15 minute timeframe and is taking on the appearence of a pullback on the one minute where qqe is trying to punch in a short entry. could there be more to go bullishly? of course. why bother trying to squeeze more out of it long when you know lower prices soon are all but guaranteed?
high to mid 19s are a target.
probable tightening range (SPXL)given the amount of retracement if we stay over 97 and attract volume setting and confirmin this as a higher low around the .5 its likely we enter a tightening range going for a touch of vwma and then setting a lower high. id like to close that day around the highs for a bull daily case. horizontals are valid targets.
two paths for nasdaq futures (TQQQ)in reality the tech boom is to blame for this correction. if we werent in such business with the market weight we are currently there wouldnt be a need for the drawdown in buying that we are. this could obviously co tinue, but my bias is still long after the current contraction and retracement. divergence from vwma, rsi and qqe signals strategies are long, and i have to say that the weekend looks promising as long as we stay away from negative headlines. the conflict is mostly priced in and xlv, xle, xli, utsl having a good day in relation to the rest of the market moving down shows healthy rotation, and does not spell a crash. defensive sector stock will accumulate and prices in tech will move up.
two paths for volatility (UVXY)theres a really bullish sentiment playing out on the daily, but technical indications are that we sell off a little in vix. ive circled the type of cross i want to see, and highlighted what could gappen if we dont complete the bearish pattern.
over $23 or under 16 in 1 week
What are the Leveraged Longs doing in Bitcoin?One of the most interesting things to develop in Bitcoin last year during the summer dip to 30k was that leveraged long positions inexplicably rose as price consolidated.
Under normal conditions traders tend to chase returns and increase leverage as the price rises. This was typical of the first half of 2021 as Bitcoin pushed to higher highs. It would follow that on the May 2021 dip leveraged longs would be liquidated, sentiment would become less risk on, and leveraged longs would decrease. The opposite happened. Leverage increased and continued increasing through the dip and further into the consolidation. At the end of the consolidation when price rallied the leverage began to evaporate away suggesting it was being closed out.
At the time this was happening last summer I saw a major structural weakness in the price of Bitcoin if price broke 30k as it would jeopardize the leveraged longs being liquidated into a major crash. I gave a talk at a local Bitcoin meetup titled "Do they get to win?" insinuating that this was a risky move that could end badly. Turns out, they did get to win. In hindsight I have a new take on the event. The leverage was coming into the market to support the price and keep it from falling further.
Now, when I revisit this indicator I see that leverage is once again increasing rapidly into a falling price. It is not just "buying the dip" but in my mind "supporting the dip not going further."
Do they get to win again?
Guaranteed money (UVXY)If we break to new highs it's almost a guarantee that, provided we are hitting new lows in multiple important sectors like tickers xlf, qqq, spy, we take this over 19. The only real guarantee is that whatever high we hit in UVXY we are seeing lower prices soon. low 14s is where I'm drawing these hypothetical puts expiring a me to.e early March. This is based on the simple fact that indices didn't hold their lows, and there are really two scenarios that can play out: we set some lower low as support and bounce, or we continue lower. If we go lower there's really no support. If we bounce there's really very little resistance. Low availability of shares means we're not headed sideways.
This is the bullish picture for uvxy:
This is the bearish picture:
The forecasts show my limits of how far I would long or short based on a bull/bear move from current levels. The ghost feed is just one solution to how they could both hit. If you get the right signals UVXY is guaranteed money.
Bearish momentum should stay (TQQQ)Rsi needs to bullishly diverge further, so the drop in price should be larger. There's really little room to judge this as a lower low that could hold. Around 40 is an area that might induce bullish activity. I wouldn't look for a long entry right now, but there will be one eventually. This is damage that will last up to the monthly.
Vwma has turned down, and qqe is still short.
this is big (TQQQ)i see a full recovery if broader market bulls can continue this turn around. should we find ourselves in a position where melt up is taking place, i think we have no choice but to go with that. the daily picture is shaping up in bulls favor, but the smart thing to do is wait for confirmation of the trend change.
Message To Leveraged Longs of BitcoinThe "Fear Index" of Bitcoin COINBASE:BTCUSD is rising both statistically and on my social media. I'm fielding a lot of questions today from people that thought THIS was the bounce (from the 36k support) and leveraged up to the ta-ta's. The question they should NOT be asking is, "when will it reverse?" The question they need to be asking is... "how much is this lesson in leverage going to cost?"
overbought vix (UVXY)i wouldnt want to be holding this thing long right now. were at 84 rsi hourly and a pullback from these levels seems like its in the works.
mid to high 15s is the target. even if we gap up and blast to the upside, i dont think were really in hot water unless spx breaks to new lows, and it doesnt seem like thats going to happen.