USD/JPY – Precision Short Trade Breakdown🔥 Executed a precise short trade on USD/JPY this morning, aligning with institutional order flow and Prime Market Terminal insights. Here’s the full breakdown of how this setup played out!
🔍 Trade Setup & Analysis:
📌 Entry: 149.300 – Price rejected a key supply zone & Fibonacci retracement level.
📌 Stop Loss: 149.558 – Above key liquidity & invalidation area.
📌 Take Profit: 148.504 (first TP), 148.213 (final target).
📌 Risk-Reward Ratio: 1:3
📊 Prime Market Terminal Insights That Confirmed This Trade:
🔻 Institutional Positioning & Market Flow:
✔ Smart Money Report:
Large institutions were heavily net short USD/JPY, with leveraged funds reducing their long exposure.
Dealer intermediaries (banks and liquidity providers) also added more short positions, indicating further downside momentum.
✔ COT (Commitment of Traders) Data:
Open interest showed a significant drop in long positions, suggesting weakness in USD/JPY.
Hedge funds and asset managers increasing short exposure aligned with my bearish bias.
✔ DMX Open Interest:
66% of institutional traders were short on USD/JPY, confirming my sell-side setup.
Short positioning had increased by 34% in the last session, reinforcing my downside expectation.
🔻 Volatility & Liquidity Insights:
✔ Average True Range (ATR) Analysis:
ATR showed a high probability of an extended move, suggesting the potential for price to hit my targets.
Recent daily ranges indicated USD/JPY had room to move another 100+ pips to the downside.
✔ Session Range & Market Structure:
Liquidity grab above 149.300 supply zone, followed by strong rejection and sell-off.
Previous session lows were swept, indicating smart money targeting deeper liquidity.
Institutional orders clustered around 148.200, suggesting a likely downside target.
🔻 High-Impact News That Influenced USD/JPY:
📢 Japanese Unemployment Rate (Actual: 2.5% | Forecast: 2.5%) → No surprise, minimal impact.
📉 Business Capex (MOF YY) (-0.2% vs. 8.1% previous) → Indicated economic slowdown, weakening JPY demand.
📰 U.S. Economic Data Later Today:
Redbook YY (USD) expected at 6.2% – could impact USD sentiment.
Fed’s Williams speech on monetary policy could affect USD volatility, reinforcing our bias.
🎯 Trade Execution & Outcome:
✅ TP HIT! Price dropped as expected, hitting both targets with precision.
🚀 Perfect confluence of:
✅ Smart money selling pressure
✅ Liquidity sweep & supply zone rejection
✅ High-probability move from ATR analysis
📸 Prime Market Terminal Screenshots Included:
📊 DMX Open Interest → Confirmed institutions were net short.
📊 COT Data → Showed decline in long positions.
📊 ATR & Volatility Charts → Supported extended downside movement.
📊 Session Ranges & Market Structure → Confirmed liquidity grab & supply zone rejection.
🔑 Key Takeaways from This Trade:
✔ Trade with institutional momentum – Always check positioning before entering!
✔ Multiple confirmations = High probability setups – Don’t rely on a single indicator.
✔ Liquidity is key – Smart money moves price to hunt liquidity, trade accordingly.
✔ Fundamentals matter – Weak JPY capex data helped push price lower.
💬 What’s your view on USD/JPY? Will we see further downside? Drop your thoughts below!
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