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Chevron is not in the clear yetOn March 27, 2017 Chevron (CVX) crossed below the 200 day moving average (MA). Historically this has occurred 228 times. When this happens, the stock does not always continue to drop. It has a median drop of 3.615% and maximum drop of 54.094% over the next 15 trading days. When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 33.8291. RSI tends to determine overbought and oversold levels. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. The current reading declares the stock is trending downward. The true strength index (TSI) is currently -17.8724. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The current reading declares the stock is trending downward. The negative vortex indicator (VI) is currently 1.2387. The VI determines current trend and direction. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. The current reading declares the stock is trending downward but it could rebound soon. Considering the moving average crossover, RSI, TSI, and VI levels, the overall near-term stock direction appears to be trending downward. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and current overall downtrend channel, the stock could gain at least another 2% over the next three weeks.
NYSE:CVXShort
by StockSignaler
Some Upside For Starbucks (SBUX)On March 24, 2017 Starbucks (SBUX) crossed over the 50, 100, 200, and 250 day moving average (MA). Also, the 20 day MA crossed below the 200 day and the 50 day crossed below the 100 day MA. Historically the stock has crossed above the same four MAs three times and the stock moved up 3.704%, 4.927% and 9.000% over the next 25 trading days. The 20 day MA crossing below the 200 day and the 50 day crossing below the 100 day have not both occurred on the same day. The 20 day below the 200 day has occurred 23 times with a minimal drop of 0.274%, median drop of 5.494% and maximum drop of 30.091%. The 50 day below the 100 day has occurred 33 times with a minimal drop of 0.330%, median drop of 7.526% and maximum drop of 29.474%. When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 58.4326. RSI tends to determine overbought and oversold levels. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. The current reading declares the stock is does not have a particular direction, but it is favoring the upside at the moment. The true strength index (TSI) is currently -11.4156. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The current reading declares the stock is trending upward. The stock recently hit a temporary bottom according to the TSI and is working back toward positive territory. The positive vortex indicator (VI) is currently 0.9324 while the negative is 0.9216. The VI determines current trend and direction. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. The current reading declares the stock is trending upward. The positive just crossed the negative which indicates upward movement. Considering the moving average crossover, RSI, TSI, and VI levels, the overall near-term stock direction appears to be trending upward. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and current overall downtrend channel, the stock could gain at least another 2% over the next four weeks.
NASDAQ:SBUXLong
by StockSignaler
PBR looking to drop some moreOn March 24, 2017 the Petroleo Brasileiro (PBR) 50 day moving average (MA) crossed below its 150 day. Historically this has occurred 14 times. When this happens, the stock drops a minimum of 3.057%, has a median drop of 6.215% and maximum drop of 30.567% over the next 14 trading days. This last occurred in August 2014. The stock dropped 24.08% over the next 24 trading days and ultimately bottomed out 102 trading days since the crossover with a loss of 44.69% When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 39.7506. RSI tends to determine overbought and oversold levels. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. The current reading declares the stock is slightly heading upward but no distinct direction is known. The true strength index (TSI) is currently -21.4752. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The current reading declares the stock is trending downward. The last two times the TSI dropped below this level the stock continued to drop. The negative vortex indicator (VI) is currently 1.1227. The VI determines current trend and direction. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. The current reading declares the stock is trending downward. This stock has a history of floating around this level and going higher in all of the last 5 times this crossover has occurred. Overall outlook of this indicator is downward. Considering the moving average crossover, RSI, TSI, and VI levels, the overall near-term stock direction appears to be trending downward. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and current downtrend, the stock could drop at least another 3.80% over the next four weeks.
NYSE:PBRShort
by StockSignaler
3
Still room for Ford to run...downOn March 24, 2017 the Ford Motor Company (F), 50 day moving average (MA) crossed above its 200 day. Historically this has occurred 37 times. When this happens, the stock does not always continue to drop. It has a median drop of 5.197% and maximum drop of 23.281% over the next 23 trading days. Currently the 50 MA and 200 MA have crossed each other 4 times in the last 27 trading days. This tells us there are either big swings or stagnation. Both times the 50 MA crossed over the 200 MA, the highest gain was only 1.269%. The last two times cross ups and cross downs occurred close to each other was before and during the "financial crisis" in 2007 and 2008. On both of these occasions the maximum gain on the cross up was 0.897% over the next 25 trading days, while the stock dropped 20.213% and 8.705% when 50 MA crossed below 200 MA (which is our current situation). Since November 2007, the minimal drop of the stock when the 50 MA crosses below the 200 MA has been 2.778% (October 2014). The other three minimal results were losses of 4.000% (January 2014), 5.197% (July 2015), and 7.0393% (June 2012). When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 26.6610. RSI tends to determine overbought and oversold levels. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. The current reading declares the stock is approaching oversold, but still has room to drop. The true strength index (TSI) is currently -8.4195. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The current reading declares the stock is trending downward. The negative vortex indicator (VI) is currently 1.3790. The VI determines current trend and direction. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. The current reading declares the stock is trending downward. Even though it is at a high level, it can continue to go higher in a negative manner for the stock. Considering the moving average crossover, RSI, TSI, and VI levels, the overall near-term stock direction appears to be trending downward. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and current downtrend, the stock could drop at least another 4.70% over the next four weeks.
NYSE:FShort
by StockSignaler
A POSITIVE MOVING AVERAGE CROSS FOR GMOn March 24, 2017 the General Motors Company (GM), crossed above its 150 day moving average. Historically this has occurred 20 times since 2010. When this happens, the stock gains a minimum of 0.475%, has a median gain of 5.466% and maximum gain of 16.159% over the next 24 trading days. On March 23, 2017, the stock broke below the 150 moving average and broke above the moving average on the following day. This has occurred three times since August 2016 and the stock gained 6.686%, 5.674% and 16.159%. Current General Motors chart from TradingView When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 32.6033. RSI tends to determine overbought and oversold levels. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. The current reading declares the stock just flirted with the oversold mark and may begin to move upward. The true strength index (TSI) is currently -5.3793. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The current reading declares the stock is trending downward which could be skewed due to the market drop on March 21. Even though it is pointing downward four of the last five times it was near this level, the stock reversed upward. The negative vortex indicator (VI) is currently 1.3790. The VI determines current trend and direction. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. The current reading declares the stock is trending downward, but it is near the reverse point where the stock normally goes up big. Considering the moving average crossover, RSI, TSI, and VI levels, the overall near-term stock direction appears to be trending upward. Based on historical movement compared to current levels, the stock could gain at least another 7.86% over the next four weeks. DISCLOSURE: I currently do not have positions in the stock mentioned above. I most likely will not enter a position within the next 72 hours. Historical movements and technical indicators should never be the sole basis for entering positions involving risk. Make sure appropriate research is conducted prior to taking any risk in a marketplace.
NYSE:GMLong
by StockSignaler
IMPORTANT MA CROSS FOR USO FUNDOn March 24, 2017 the United States Oil Fund USO, 200 daily moving average crossed below the 250 daily moving average. Historically this has occurred 10 times. When this happens, the ETF drops a minimum of 0.151%, has a median drop of 2.214% and maximum drop of 10.623% over the next 10 trading days. This last occurred December 8, 2014 and the fund dropped 67.92% over 296 trading days until it hit the bottom. Current USO chart from TradingView When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 29.0332. RSI tends to determine overbought and oversold levels. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. The current reading declares the fund is nearing oversold territory, however, the fund recently hit the oversold level and is slightly heading upward from a 23.5711 level on March 14, 2017. The true strength index (TSI) is currently -30.2018. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The current reading declares the fund is trending downward. The negative vortex indicator (VI) is currently 1.3201. The VI determines current trend and direction. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. The current reading declares the fund is trending downward. Considering the moving average crossover, RSI, TSI, and VI levels, the overall near-term fund direction appears to be trending downward. Based on historical movement compared to current levels, the fund could drop 1.93% before turning upward again.
AMEX:USOShort
by StockSignaler
NEXT 6 TRADING DAYS FOR US STEELOn March 24, 2017 the United States Steel (X), crossed below its 100 day moving average. Historically this has occurred 152 times. When this happens, the stock does not always continue to drop. It has a median drop of 5.249% and maximum drop of 31.518% over the next 10 trading days. This last occurred twice in October 2016 and the stock dropped 12% over the following 6 trading. When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 37.0645. RSI tends to determine overbought and oversold levels. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. The current reading declares the stock is looking for direction and has been heading downward since February 21. The true strength index (TSI) is currently -0.6478. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The current reading declares the stock is trending downward. The negative vortex indicator (VI) is currently 1.1048. The VI determines current trend and direction. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. The current reading declares the stock is trending downward, with the most recent highly negative reading being 1.3075 on August 25, 2016. Considering the moving average crossover, RSI, TSI, and VI levels, the overall near-term stock direction appears to be trending downward. Based on historical movement compared to current levels, the stock could drop another 4% before turning upward again. A recently held support area exists at 31.33
NYSE:XShort
by StockSignaler
Third Indicator of upward move for BABAHistorically when the Coppock Curve reaches this level, the stock moves at least 1% higher over the next few weeks with an average move of 15%. This chart depicts multiple levels of interest over the next few months. In the current MACRO trend channel, it took BABA about 64 trading days to go from the top of the channel to the bottom (Nov 15-Feb 16) in a move that lost 31.44%. This same top to bottom was recently repeated in 60 trading days and only 21.72% was shed. After the 2016 drop, BABA moved bottom to a top in about 49 trading days which gained 37.96%. My longer term outlook is for something similar to occur. IF BABA breaks above its current down trend channel, upward movement could continue toward 109.23 around March 1. For now my conservative play is a move to at least 96.00 over the next few weeks. World events could keep BABA in the current down trend channel for a much longer period of time. Of interest is a potential selloff after DJY0 reaches 20K and/or the swearing in of President Trump which brings to fruition some international policies. Trump could stir up tariffs, embargos, or other vital trade implications especially with China that could weaken some of BABA's international imports and exports. Bottom line, look for BABA to move to 96.00, and then 109.00 once the current MICRO trend is broken upward.
NYSE:BABALong
by StockSignaler
More Technical Positives for BABAHistorically when the Vortex Indicator reaches this level, the stock moves at least 1% higher over the next few weeks. This chart depicts multiple levels of interest over the next few months. In the current MACRO trend channel, it took BABA about 64 trading days to go from the top of the channel to the bottom (Nov 15-Feb 16) in a move that lost 31.44%. This same top to bottom was recently repeated in 60 trading days and only 21.72% was shed. After the 2016 drop, BABA moved bottom to a top in about 49 trading days which gained 37.96%. My longer term outlook is for something similar to occur. IF BABA breaks above its current down trend channel, upward movement could continue toward 109.23 around March 1. For now my conservative play is a move to at least 96.00 over the next few weeks. World events could keep BABA in the current down trend channel for a much longer period of time. Of interest is a potential selloff after DJY0 reaches 20K and/or the swearing in of President Trump which brings to fruition some international policies. Trump could stir up tariffs, embargos, or other vital trade implications especially with China that could weaken some of BABA's international imports and exports. Bottom line, look for BABA to move to 96.00, and then 109.00 once the current MICRO trend is broken upward.
NYSE:BABALong
by StockSignaler
1
SLIGHT MOVE UP, BEFORE NEXT DROPHistorically when the TSI reaches this level, VZ rises at least 1.08% and moves an average of 3.10%. Most movement is between 2-3%. My conservative play is a movement to at least 55.75 over the next few weeks. The previous movement from bottom to top in this trend channel took 52 trading days and the total move was 24.43%. I have laid out where those levels would be in this instance. the 52nd trading day is outside of my time period that I monitor but movement could still reach that level which is around 57.30. So far we are 35 trading days since the bottom was last attained.
NYSE:VZ
by StockSignaler
UPSIDE FOR ALIBABAHistorically when the RSI reaches its current level with BABA, the stock rises a minimum of 3.27% and has an average movement of 9.91%. I have outlined a trendline that has served as support and resistance multiple times in the previous year. Although the top of the trendchannel is well above this point, I project a conservative move to 101.60 over the next few weeks. There may be a slight pullback tomorrow, especially with the non-farm payroll and unemployment numbers are due out and looking less positive. Near the end of the day tomorrow or shortly after the OPEN on Monday could be great opportunities to BUY a CALL.
NYSE:BABALong
by StockSignaler
3
Even more bad indicators for FBHistorically when FB reaches this vortex negative level, the stock drops an average of 6.71%. FB is currently in a bearish pennant and due to break out up or down. Based on historics, the pennant, and potential support levels, it looks like a drop to 108.23 is highly likely over the next few weeks. I am slightly skeptical of the pennant break within the next few trading days, but those believing Trump will reduce capital gains tax rates may conduct massive profit taking for calendar year 2017 while there is profit to be had in order to reap the reward come tax time in Spring of 2018. Large amounts of profit taking can become the catalyst for a near term drop in markets, or a correction which could lead to a greater than 6% drop.
NASDAQ:METAShort
by StockSignaler
Bold Prediction Unwelcoming to FB fansHistorically when FB reaches this RSI level, the stock drops more than 1% with an average drop of 5.94%. FB is currently in a bearish pennant and due to break out up or down. Based on historics, the pennant, and potential support levels, it looks like a drop to 108.23 is highly likely over the next few weeks. I am slightly skeptical of the pennant break within the next few trading days, but those believing Trump will reduce capital gains tax rates may conduct massive profit taking for calendar year 2017 while there is profit to be had in order to feel the reward come tax time in Spring of 2018. The common support level is 0.01% away from the average drop when this RSI has historically been met. This could be a coincidence, but also a helpful indicator of where a selloff could lead.
NASDAQ:METAShort
by StockSignaler
When it rains it pours on BXHistorically when the coppock curve reaches this level the stock drops at least 1% over the next few weeks with an average drop of more than 11%. I am looking at two levels over that time but also monitoring two timeframes for a significant loss to take place. My conservative drop is around 25.81 where the stock floated multiple times since the election. This would only be a 4.53%, but conservatively most likely to be a sure thing. The other play is near the bottom of the trendchannel. BX has dropped from the top of the channel to the bottom twice this year. The first occurred over 11 trading days and the second occurred over 53 trading days. Since BX is already beyond that 11 day point, I marked out 23 days (roughly half of 53) and 53 trading days. If the bottom of the channel is hit, it could happen within one of these timeframes. A perfect storm of levels are pointing at January 17 (23 days from the top of the trend channel) and January 18 (roughly 10% drop from January 2). The 10 percent drop is a more conservative figure than the average 11.56% decline.
NYSE:BXShort
by StockSignaler
FB pennant ending soonFB is currently forming a pennant and the apex is around the first week in February. Most likely the pennant will break down from its current level, or bounce and break up. First things first, FB is going down. Historically when the Coppock Curve reaches its current level, the stock drops an average of 7.78% with a minimum move around 0.75%. My conservative take is a slight drop over the next few weeks to at least 115.60. If this is the breakout for the pennant the move could be much lower putting a 7% drop in play.
NASDAQ:METAShort
by StockSignaler
1
WHERE IS THE NEXT BOTTOM for BX??Historically when this level is reached on the VI, the stock drops at least another 1.19%. The average drop is 10.92%. A drop beyond 10.92% is not out of the question at this point. The current trendchannel has a bottom more than 12% from the CLOSE on December 28. My conservative move is a drop to 25.95 where the stock hit eight days in a row at the end of November. Last time the stock was at 27.33, it dropped 11.45% over the following 11 days which also supports a pending significant drop.
NYSE:BXShort
by StockSignaler