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Stll inside bearflag but dscndng trndline holding strong supprt Things are looking fairly bearish aside from the bear fakeout from the flag. The fakeout only brought us back inside the bearflag though making it still very much in play. Probability still favors a breakdown and it will likely take a rare inverted bart to nullify the bearish momentum and send us upward. One slightly bullish thing at the moment is the green dotted descending trendline which has been serving as a solid support line for quite some time now. We can see the latest bear plummet also found good bounce support at this trendline. This trendline is also a potential top trendline to a weekly descending triangle pattern on bitcoin which I will post a zoomed out snapshot of directly below this in the updates. I have a feeling we are nearing the end of the bears momentum and anticipate that we will stat above 5.5k. However I am also prepared for the exact opposite in case that expectation is broken. I am no financial advisor but I would suggest you be always be prepared for both your anticipated outcome and the exact opposite outcome. Thanks for reading. Good luck.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by DrDovetail
What Support Looks Like When It BreaksLooking at the m15 chart only can lead you to have the correct idea but in the wrong place. By looking at high time frame charts you get a better picture of when a trend is in place, when a trend is no longer working or when there is no trend and we're in a range. On the attached charts a daily time frame (top left) has a defined up trend and at 1.6700 the trend line and price meet for the 3rd time of Sept 27th. Here traders wanting to keep adding to long trade would initiate a long trade. However by the close of the daily candle that idea is no longer valid, as the trend line did not hold as support. Moving down through the smaller time frames we see that the days leading up to the 27th September have been consolidated into small daily moves. There is a clear line of support under these days that is clearly broken on the H1 chart etc. This equates to the time when the Daily candle approaches the rising trend line. What we see happen next is that the broken daily horizontal support is now acting as horizontal resistance and price is trapped between this new horizontal resistance and the rising daily up trend. When the horizontal resistance holds and the daily rising trend line are broke on the H1 candles traders waited for a quick retest and then went short. Accelerating the move.
Education
by OctaFX_Official
2
XMR/BTC monero monero ! :))Hello all ! Im neutral-bearish on monero at this moment. Monero is a difficult chart for daytrading and so lets see how it goes in the next months , as you can see we had a double botton on august and october, range 0.011 , worked very well giving 200% roi both , will the story repeats? maybe.. :) So what I will do is set some orders between previous double botton range , and some at 0.00974. no chart patterns here so well nothing much to project in this chart :) Current price : 0.0151 have good day!
by Buyinfear
1
Big Experiment (part 2). Line Break ChartBITFINEX:BTCUSD Dear friends, I continue my big experiment with different chart types. In the previous training article, I described the advantages and disadvantages of Renko chart. After that, I was testing the signals, sent by Renko, and those, provided by common technical analysis tools, like MACD and moving averages, on different cryptocurrency pairs. I analyze four-hour timeframe in my experiment. Finally, after one week of tests, I can draw the following conclusions: • The quality of Renko signals mostly depends on the right box size. • MACD oscillator is quite good to find out the appropriate box size. You adjust the box size in the selected timeframe until there are as few false signals as possible, or there aren’t any. • As Renko chart hardly indicates the minor sideways price movements, you can reduce the periods of moving averages by a few times, so that their signals won’t be too late. • To filter false signals, sent by Renko, you also need to use candlestick chart at the same time. • A perfect buy/sell entry point is when the signals in the candlestick chart coincide with the Renko signals. An example of a perfect buy position: An example of a perfect sell position. Finally, I can conclude that Renko chart is an excellent instrument that will perfectly supplement any trading system. The drawbacks are the need to adjust the brick size to each timeframe and the time lags in signals, compared to the corresponding ones in the candlestick chart. The next chart type in my experiment will be Line Break Chart. Although it may seem complicated, it is quite simple to apply. It displays only the price moves that break through the last three closing price levels. The default number of Line settings is three, but you can change it just like the Renko box size, in order to make the chart more or less responsive. Unfortunately, I haven’t discovered the way to change the type of the levels displayed. I believe it would far more interesting to see not the closing price lines, but, rather, the highs or lows, because these movements provide the final signal to determine the trend direction. So, I really hope that someone will hear me and develop such an indicator ;)) To make it clearer for you how a Line Break Chart is built, let’s study it on a real example. There are two charts of the weekly timeframe above. The candlestick chart is on the left. The Line Break chart is on the right. I marked the analyzed zone with the green circle. You see, a long bullish candlestick emerged on July 16. It broke through the closing price levels of the three previous candlesticks (I marked close levels by numbers), and so there is a bullish bar in the Line Break chart (green). Besides, the bar’s high coincides not with the high of the Japanese candlestick, but with its closing level. As you see, in this case, the opening level of a bar in the Line Break chart is always the closing price level of the previous bar. The indicator alone sends quite simple signals. 1. A buy signal is when three consecutive bearish bars (down lines) are followed by a bullish one (an up line). 2. A sell signal is when three consecutive bullish bars (up lines) are followed by a bearish one (a down line). Here, I should mention that many Line Break chart users suggest expecting an additional bar in the signal direction, following the reversal bar (breakout). Therefore, if the pattern is not complete, and down lines are alternated with up lines, you’d better avoid trading. As known, Japanese like creating names for their patterns, and this case is no exception. For clarity, I presented the bullish pattern in the Line Break chart. I marked three bearish bars with the red circle, Japanese call it Black Shoes. The bullish bar, following three black shoes, is marked with the yellow circle. It is called Suit. A white suit means to buy, and a black suit means sell. The line in the green circle is the confirming bar, it is called Neck. Japanese say that you are to buy when the market “puts on black shoes and shows the neck in the white suit”, that is the market a kind of puts on a white bullish or a black bearish suit before it moves on)) It is important, how long is the Suit line; if it is not that long, a false breakout is likely to occur. It occurred in the first case, when the Suite was rather short. In the BTCUSD price chart above, I present an example of a sell signal (similar to the bullish one), when the market has put on a black suit. Basically, this pattern has a big flaw; by the time there is the Neck, a half or even the most of the general trend can be over. To reduce the time lag, you can cut the number of break lines. In addition to this, I suggest doing the experiment with the standard indicators, MACD and moving averages. In the Bitcoin/Dollar four-hour char above, you see that the Line Break chart sends the signal a little later. However, if there is the price sideways move (marked with the red circle), the indicator sends many false signals and is not efficient. There, MACD is of help. In case with the Line Break chart, the indicator doesn’t suggest strong volatility and indicates the sentiment rather definitely; it doesn’t feature the same in the Japanese candlestick chart. Summary: The Line (Three-Line) Break Chart is obviously worth studying and can serve as a confirming indicator of the trend reversal. Like Renko chart, Line Break can remove the noise, resulted from minor volatility during short time periods; however, it is likely to send many false during a long sideways trend inside a wide price range. Moreover, I don’t think it is right to analyze the close levels to spot the breakout, as, according to technical analysis, the more important levels during the price breakouts are the highs or lows for previous periods. To study the indicator in more detail, I’m going to test in practice, applied to different trading instruments. I will present the results of my tests, traditionally, the in the next educational post. I wish you good luck and good profits! PS. If you agree with the forecast write “+” in the comments, if you don’t agree, put “-”. If you liked the post, just write thank you, and don’t forget to share the post. It is easy for you and I will be very pleased :)
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by Hypov
1
Technical and Fundamental Analysis of GBPUSD.On the daily chart, the 200EMA shows me where the long term trend will be for the currency, the EMA showed that price was below the EMA which indicates that the trend is bearish.I can also see a breakout on the price resistance line(1.26978) so it could show that the price will continue to go down.I switched to the 4 hour to see if the Ichimoku signals show bearish signals, there is bearish cross with Kijun Sen is in top of the Tenken sen which shows price is bearish. Price is also below the pink cloud which shows signal for the that the trend is bearish. Also the Chikou space shows that the line is below price which gives e the confirmation that the trade is more likely to go bearish. The fundamental news was on the GBP and it was the U.K. Average Earnings Index +Bonus is the measure of the change in the price businesses and the government pay for labour, including bonuses. The Average Earnings figure gives us a good indication of personal income growth during the given month, but also potential inflationary pressures. The U.K. Claimant Count Change is the measure change in the number of unemployed people receiving unemployment benefits in the U.K. during the reported month. A rising trend indicates weakness in the labour market.. as both of the readings were lower than previous, the Average Earnings Index +Bonus previous was 2.5% and the actual was 2.4%, the U.K. Claimant Count Change previous was 9.0K and the actual forecast was 6.2K .it means that price will do be in a bearish forecast. I would go short on this major pair.
Short
by LDForex_
Bullrun Continues but 1day 200MA resistance looming just above.Breaking the old Adam and Eve neckline(which turned into a triple bottom neckline) and triggering the breakout has brought us some of the most insane bullishness we've scene since last November-December. RSI and Stoch RSI levels have become seemingly irrelevant as BTC has ignored all overbought indicators and continued to rise. The breakout of that neckline has a projected target of over 15,000 so it's very exciting...however the most recent bullflag breakout target(in green) is just above the big resistance of the 1 day 200ma (in blue). Because of this I think we may wick slightly above the 200ma but ultimately find that the 200ma is able to hold resistance and it will likely send us back downward for our first real correction since this bull run began. However seeing as how btc ignored every indicator and has already effortlessly busted through major resistance line after major resistance line, this too could be yet another instance where it tears through the 200ma and continues skyrocketing upwards. We are well above the 1 day buy/sell line(in orange) so HODLing is the name of the game at this point. However if we do get a minor correction from the 200mas resistance that would be a good time for looking for the most opportunistic chance to buy the dip. I think if we do retrace at that point it will be simply to form a higher low and then we will be able to turn back to the upside afterwards and bust up through the 200ma from there. We can see the 50ma/buy/sell line is starting to finally curl upward like I was predicting it would many ideas ago...also we still have the 200ma on a downward trajectory now that it is no longer factoring in Decembers bullrun which could also help to make its resistance weakened and allow us to break above it more easily. then again the faster its dropping may bring momentum to strengthen its resistance too...will have to wait and see how it responds when we test it. Ultimately it's downward trajectory is a great sign because it means a 1 day golden cross is very likely to happen in early August or so which should finally kick the real bull market into gear. Keep HODLing and buy the dips is my bull market mantra. Thanks for reading and good luck in whichever strategy you choose for yourself! *not financial advice*
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by DrDovetail
4
higher low/higher high + follow up higher low established.My main sequence that I base trend reversals on is when we establish a higher low followed by a higher high and then a follow up confirmation higher low on the 4hr chart after being in a downtrend that tells me that we are reversing to an uptrend. The ivnerse is true when we reverse from an uptrend to a downtrend. What we are currently seeing in the market appears to be reversing to an uptrend as we have just gotten our confirmation higher low after our most recent higher high. On top of this we have another big signal of mine which is whenever we get more than 5 consecutive candle closes above the 50 MA (in orange) we are in a buyers market. This concept is more effective on the 1 day time frame but can also work on a smaller scale on the 4hr time frame. ..Currently on the 4hr time frame we now have 12 consecutive candle closes above the buy sell line and are a good ways above it. We also have the current 4hr candle breaking above the top trendline of a big equilateral triangle pattern. I think we will still be heading to the inverted head and shoulder break out target of around 7.2k. Before we get there it is important that before our next dip we form another higher high to continue the higher high/higher low sequence. So before the next dip we want to reach at least $6870 or so and all signals are telling me that probability favors us doing so. So this idea will be listed as long. Of course this is only my own personal strategy and as always not financial advice. I wish you luck in whatever strategy you choose to implement for yourself. Best of luck and thanks for reading!
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by DrDovetail
1
A nice bounce up off the 4hr buy/sell line a nice bounce upward off of the 4hr buy/sell line, As I've said int he past once we've hit 5 consecutive candle closes above the buy sell line, it's usually more of a buying opportunity than a selling opportunity. We currently have nine 4 hr candles in a row above the buy/sell line(in orange). This also give the stochrsi and the rsi a chance to cool down to give them more room to climb here. What I'm hoping to see is for the candle to find a way to climb back above the 4hr t line(in yellow either by this candles close or at least by the candle following this one. If that happens that means this bull flag on the 4hr chart is still valid and the current red candle was simply a fakeout. If we don't get close to the t line by this candle's close however then there's a chance we could still fall under the buy/ sell line by the next couple candles, and if we closed 5 consecutive candles under that line we would be back in a sellers market on the 4hr chart. For now since it could potentially head either way I will keep this idea listed as neutral. This is as always not financial advice and simply a summation of what I plan to do for entertainment purposes only. Good luck and thanks for reading!
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by DrDovetail
We appear to potentially be breaking above the rising wedge.While I've been confident we would break up from the current rising wedge instead of down from the head and shoulders pattern for roughly a week now, I wasn't sure if that would be before another retest of the head and shoulder neckline at the bottom of the wedge or not, but now we have two 4 hour candles up out of the rising wedge with an hour and 5 minutes left before the current one's close. Until we see a surge in bullish volume we haven't confirmed the breakout so keep that in mind...I'd say a smart place to buy in would be a couple pips above the 4hr 50ma (in orange) because that is our current resistance and for us to reach 2 pips above it will likely require flipping it from resistance to support. I'm confident if we flip that moving average to support we will confirm the breakout so I have a stop buy set up for 2 pips above the ema.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by DrDovetail
FRACTALS EVERYWHERE!!! history tends to repeat itselfHi guys, whats coin on? Here is what I think it will happen and why... After majority of people entered short positions, market makers have decided to move market up, with a goal of liquidating as many of those short positions as possible. They print a bull flag and a lot of bulls hop in, crypto twitter create massive bull atmosphere, like we've never have been in a downtrend, and then for everyone to believe this is the truth, they run another wave up, just for a move to be more convincing. We can saw this happen many times before during this downtrend, 3 wave move up, and then, after majority of bulls have joined, they crash a market, this time, to liquidate all the long positions that confidently entered on a margin. We can see on a log chart, that we never actually broke out of that downtrend channel. What we did for sure, we did breakout downwards, right trough that support trendline which exist since 25.3.2017. What this looks like to me is like a textbook retest of that trendline, where in the same time will be an upper resistive trendline which bulls will try to break for the fourth time. At the same spot there is also a huge resistance area between $9k - $9.5k, and if bears are not done yet, we will see another great crush which will be followed by panic and driven by fear, and after that maybe a long period of accumulation. On the other side, bulls can breakout trough that area, but it will need a lot more money to enter tha market for this to happen. We will see. Pay close attention around that area and be carefful going long there if you are bull. For bears, that would be perfect area to go short.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by AjnoudaSikret
5
3 candle closes above the 4hr 50MA Buy/Sell LineIts been a very nice rebound thus far and as you can see on the 4 hour chart we now have 3 candle closes above the ever-important buy/sell line (50MA), renowned technical analyst Steve Primo has often said that once you have 5 closes above the buy sell line you are in a buyers market and 5 closes below puts you in a sellers market, so we only need 2 more closes above this line to be in a buyers market on the 4hr chart. Considering how the T-line(in yellow) has now come up to almost overlap with the Buy/Sell line as a double reinforced support I think the buy sell line maintaining it's support role is highly likely and that we will indeed see 5 closes above the buy sell line on the 4hr chart. Which should finally push us back above the current fib line resistance and likely flip its role from resistance to support as well. I think because of these factors, the bulls will continue their bull impulse up after this brief consolidation....I personally don't think any significant retracement will happen until the next foib line up (in blue) around the big psychological support of 8,000...I expect at that time we will get our first real retracement that isnt just sideways consolidation...that will be a great opportunity for us to see whether or not we will get a higher low...we just recently got our first higher high in awhile and need to confirm that the bulls have taken control from the bears by getting a follow up higher low on the enxt retrace...and then a higher high to go with it on the impulse after that to confirm we are fully back in bull mode....once we can do that, I anticipate the bull surge will be enough to reverse the death cross and trigger a golden cross which should put us into a mega bullish mode and hopefully get us back above the1day charts buy/sell line high enough to get 5 closes back above it and put us fully back in the bull market for the second quarter of 2018. This big bullish domino effect starts first though with us getting our 5th candle close above the 4hr charts buy sell line.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by DrDovetail
7
Bull flag beats out bear flag; new higher high established.As you can see we have busted up out of the bull flag and thus also upward out of the bear flag as well...I have posted 2 price targets for a bull flag breakout one that considers the pole of the flg to be just one of the green candles a price point we've already reched...and then another prie point in case the entire bull flags pole was also the long green candle just before that as well. I'm glad to see we've finally gotten a candle above the 50MA buy sell line as well...if we can close 5 consecutive 4 hour candles above the 50MA(in orange) aka the buy sell line...then expect thigns to get very bullish very quick with a domino effect ensuing. We continue to trigger higher climbs the odds are great that we will be reversing the death cross and triggering what's known as the golden cross which would help make things mega bullish. so not only do we have the potential to climb higher just from the bull flag breakout but by breaking out of the bull flag we also broke out of the bigger bear flag which would have an even higher potential climb in store for the price action if that breakout is confirmed which I believe it will be. So for now I'm switching to long I will only switch back to neutral or short if on the enxt retracement we get a lower high or if when we climb back up from the retracement we get a lower low...to confirm the bulls are noe in control after we got this higher high..w.e need the confirmation of then a higher low on the retracement followed b a 2nd confirmation higher high...I'm confident we will get that....this is not financial advise however so you make up your own mind. Thanks for reading!
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by DrDovetail
4hr closes above T-line & 50MA; good sign but still in limbo.A great outcome seeing the 4hr candle close not just above the 50MA(averting going back into the sellers market for now), but also climbing up and closing above the 4hr T-Line. For now I remain neutral but I would say one more confirmation candle on the 4hr chart closing above the tline would make me officially switch back over to long. A close above the t line and the 100MA on the 4hr would make me even more confident in switching from neutral to long. Best of luck to you in whatever you decide to do **not financial advice**
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by DrDovetail