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AJA'S Gold view... Daily Timeframe Analysis.Gold has been on a correction spree now, with short term buys. On the monthly timeframe, Gold is completely OVERSOLD. From my analysis on the daily timeframe, the bear power is more, we'll keep selling to our poi, which is our order block at 3025-2975. Gold needs to make a huge correction by coming down past the inducement point at 3122 before hitting the order block at that BOS. Then we'll see if the bearish market will continue, or the bull will take power. What do you think about this analysis?
FXOPEN:XAUUSDShort
by JennAJA
2
Bitcoin analysis based on market liquidity and M2 money supply This trade enters Bitcoin in the $101,500–$102,200 zone, aiming to capture a high-probability bounce from a dense liquidity pocket formed by recent long liquidations. This region has historically acted as a bull market reaccumulation zone, typically holding after 5–8% drawdowns during major trend continuations. The trade is structured to ride a macro continuation leg toward $125,000, targeting the next major expansion phase driven by both short squeezes (clustered above $106K) and a broader surge in demand following increasing M2 money supply and institutional inflows. The stop-loss is placed at $97,000, a deliberate distance below local support but above the deeper liquidity sweep zone at $89K–$92K. That level is unlikely to be reached unless the market undergoes a full liquidation cascade, which would likely bypass $97K altogether in a fast move. This stop protects against structural failure while avoiding premature exits in normal volatility. The setup is designed for maximum reward with acceptable risk, offering a risk-reward ratio of over 4:1, and aligns with the thesis that Bitcoin is entering its final acceleration phase toward a new macro high.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by mattynewman
TOTAL Crypto Market Cap: Structural Breakout Aligns with Macros## 📊 TOTAL – Crypto Market Cap Ready for Expansion Phase? --- ### 🧵 **Summary** The crypto market is showing signs of strong macro strength, with TOTAL reclaiming major support levels and forming a structurally bullish setup. Our multi-Fibonacci confluences and hidden bullish divergence point toward the possibility of a sustained breakout and new expansion leg toward \$4.9T and beyond. This bullish view is further supported by powerful macro fundamentals expected over the next 8–10 months, including: * Central bank rate cuts and liquidity expansion * U.S. and EU regulatory clarity (stablecoins, ETFs, MiCA) * Strong institutional adoption and geopolitical shifts * Ethereum scaling upgrades and Bitcoin halving cycle effects Together, these narratives form a compelling foundation for a broad-based market cap expansion. --- ### 📈 **Chart Context** This is a **weekly chart of the TOTAL crypto market cap**, providing a bird’s-eye view of market cycles, macro structure, and capital flow across the entire ecosystem. --- ### 🧠 **Key Technical Observations** * **Reclaim of \$3.02T level** (key support/fib level) signals macro bullish momentum. * Market is forming **higher lows and bullish continuation structures**. * **Support zones:** \$3.02T (reclaimed), \$2.57T (key pivot), * **Resistance/TP zones:** * **TP1 – \$3.75T** (100% trend-based fib + -27% retracement expansion) * **TP2 – \$4.9T** (161.8% trend-based fib + -61.8% retracement expansion) * **TP3 – \$6.9T** (261.8% fib extension target) --- ### 🧶 **Fibonacci Confluences and TP Logic** We’ve employed both **standard Fibonacci retracement** and **trend-based extension** tools to build our target structure. The **1TP and 2TP zones** are defined by confluences between: * **Retracement expansion levels** of **-27% and -61.8%** * **Trend-based extension levels** of **100% and 161.8%** If price reaches 2TP (~~\$4.9T) and **retraces toward the parallel legs** (100%–127%), this would confirm structural symmetry and open the door for a final push toward \*\*TP3 (~~\$6.9T)\*\* — the 261.8% extension. --- ### 🔍 **Indicators** * **MACD Crossover** and rising histogram bars * **Hidden Bullish Divergence** between MACD and price – a classic continuation signal * Weekly trendline breakout from accumulation zone --- ### 🧠 **Fundamental Context** While not directly charted, key macro catalysts like ETF approvals, global liquidity cycles, monetary easing, and increasing institutional interest will likely play a role in the next phase of expansion. This chart captures the structural readiness for that narrative. ## 📊 Fundamental Context (Extended Outlook: Mid-2025 to Early 2026) Below is a detailed breakdown of upcoming macroeconomic, geopolitical, and crypto-specific developments sourced from: * Bitwise Asset Management * Fidelity Digital Assets * ARK Invest * CoinDesk, Reuters, Axios, WSJ * CapitalWars, Cointelegraph, Coinpedia * European Commission (MiCA regulations) * U.S. Congressional records and SEC announcements These events are chronologically aligned to support a structured macro bullish thesis for TOTAL market cap. Bullish Crypto Catalysts (June 2025 – Feb 2026) Summer 2025 (Jun–Aug): Monetary Easing and Regulatory Breakthroughs Central Bank Policy Pivot: By mid-2025, major central banks are shifting toward easier policy. Market expectations indicate the U.S. Federal Reserve will stop tightening and begin cutting interest rates in 2025, with forecasts of up to three rate cuts by end-2025 bitwiseinvestments.eu . Declining inflation and rising unemployment are pushing the Fed in this direction bitwiseinvestments.eu bitwiseinvestments.eu . Easier monetary policy increases global liquidity and risk appetite, historically providing a tailwind for Bitcoin and crypto prices bitwiseinvestments.eu . In fact, global money supply is near record highs, a condition that in past cycles preceded major Bitcoin rallies bitwiseinvestments.eu . Should economic volatility worsen, the Fed has even signaled readiness to deploy fresh stimulus, which would inject more liquidity – “another tailwind for Bitcoin price growth” nasdaq.com . Liquidity and Inflation Trends: With inflation trending down from earlier peaks, central banks like the Fed and European Central Bank are under less pressure to tighten. This opens the door for potential liquidity injections or QE if growth falters. Analysts note a strong correlation (often >84%) between expanding global M2 money supply and Bitcoin’s price rise nasdaq.com . There is typically a ~2-month lag for liquidity increases to flow into speculative assets like crypto nasdaq.com nasdaq.com . The monetary easing expected in mid-2025 could therefore boost crypto markets by late summer, as new liquidity finds its way into higher-yielding investments. One projection even models Bitcoin retesting all-time highs (~$108K by June 2025) if global liquidity continues upward nasdaq.com – underscoring how “accelerated expansion of global liquidity” often aligns with crypto bull runs nasdaq.com . U.S. Stablecoin Legislation: A landmark regulatory catalyst is anticipated in summer 2025: the first comprehensive U.S. crypto law, focused on stablecoins. The Senate has advanced the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act to a final vote coindesk.com . Passage of this bill (expected by mid-2025) would create a federal framework for stablecoin issuers, resolving a major regulatory gray area coindesk.com . Analysts call this “one of the most important regulatory developments in the history of crypto” – potentially even bigger than the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in impact coindesk.com . By enforcing prudential standards on stablecoin reserves and permitting licensed issuance, the law would legitimize stablecoins as a core part of the financial system. Bitwise predicts that clear rules could trigger a “multi-year crypto bull market,” with stablecoin market cap exploding from ~$245B to $2.5 trillion as mainstream adoption accelerates coindesk.com coindesk.com . A U.S. law would also likely set a global precedent, encouraging other regions to integrate crypto-dollar tokens into commerce. Bottom line: expected stablecoin regulation in summer 2025 is a bullish game-changer, improving market integrity and unlocking new liquidity for crypto markets coindesk.com . Regulatory Clarity in Europe: Meanwhile, Europe’s comprehensive MiCA regulations have fully taken effect as of late 2024, so by summer 2025 the EU has a unified crypto framework. This gives legal clarity to issuers, exchanges, and custodians across the 27-nation bloc pymnts.com skadden.com . The harmonized rules (covering everything from stablecoin reserves to exchange licensing) are expected to expand Europe’s crypto market size by 15–20% in the coming years dailyhodl.com . With MiCA in force, firms can confidently launch crypto products EU-wide, and institutional investors have more protection. U.K. regulators are on a similar path – e.g. recognizing stablecoins as payment instruments – further globalizing the pro-crypto regulatory trend. By mid-2025, this regulatory thaw in major economies is improving investor sentiment. Goldman Sachs recently noted that 91% of crypto firms are gearing up for MiCA compliance – a sign that industry is preparing to scale under clearer rules merklescience.com merklescience.com . Overall, the summer of 2025 marks a turning point: governments are embracing sensible crypto rules (rather than harsh crackdowns), reducing uncertainty and inviting institutional capital off the sidelines. Initial ETF Impact: The first wave of U.S. spot crypto ETFs – approved in late 2023 and January 2024 – will have been trading for over a year by mid-2025 investopedia.com . Their success is already far exceeding expectations: BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust amassed a record $52 billion AUM in its first year (the biggest ETF launch in history) coindesk.com , and other Bitcoin funds from Fidelity, ARK, and Bitwise quickly joined the top 20 U.S. ETF launches of all time coindesk.com . These products have unleashed pent-up retail and institutional demand by offering a regulated, convenient vehicle for crypto exposure coindesk.com . By summer 2025, ETF inflows are still robust, and many Wall Street analysts expect a second wave of approvals. Indeed, 2025 is being called “the Year of Crypto ETFs” coindesk.com . Observers predict dozens of new funds – including spot Ether, Solana, and XRP ETFs – could win approval under revamped SEC leadership in the post-2024 election environment coindesk.com . If so, late 2025 could see a broad menu of crypto ETF offerings, widening investor access to the asset class. This steady drumbeat of ETF launches and inflows adds a structural source of buy-pressure under crypto markets throughout 2025. (Notably, Bloomberg data showed over $1.7B poured into spot crypto ETFs in just the first week of 2025, on top of 2024’s flows etf.com .) In short, the ETF effect – “shocking the industry to its core” in year one coindesk.com – is set to grow even stronger in 2025, channeling more traditional capital into crypto. U.S. Political Shift (Post-Election): The outcome of the Nov 2024 U.S. elections is a crucial backdrop by mid-2025. A new administration under President Donald Trump took office in January 2025 and immediately signaled a markedly pro-crypto policy stance. Within his first 100 days, Trump’s appointments to key financial agencies (SEC, CFTC, OCC) effectuated a “180° pivot” in crypto regulation from the prior administration cnbc.com . Industry observers describe a sharp policy reversal – where previously the sector faced hostility, now it’s courted as an engine of innovation. President Trump has publicly vowed to be “the first crypto-president,” hosting crypto industry leaders at the White House and promising to boost digital asset adoption reuters.com . He even floated creating a strategic Bitcoin reserve for the United States reuters.com – a striking show of support for Bitcoin’s role as a reserve asset (though it remains to be seen if this materializes). More tangibly, regulatory agencies have begun rolling back onerous rules. For example, the SEC under new leadership scrapped a prior accounting guideline that made bank crypto custody prohibitively expensive reuters.com . And the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) has “paved the way” for banks to engage in crypto activities like custody and stablecoin issuance reuters.com . These changes in Washington brighten the outlook for crypto markets: with regulatory uncertainty fading, U.S. institutions feel more confident to participate. In essence, by mid-2025 the world’s largest capital market (the U.S.) is shifting from impeding crypto to embracing it, a narrative change that cannot be overstated in its bullish significance coindesk.com reuters.com . Geopolitical Easing and BRICS Actions: Global macro conditions in summer 2025 may also improve due to geopolitical developments. If major conflicts (like the Russia-Ukraine war) de-escalate or move toward resolution by late 2024 or 2025, it would remove a key source of risk-off sentiment. Lower geopolitical risk and easing of war-driven commodity shocks would help cool inflation (especially energy prices) and bolster global growth – factors that support risk asset rallies (crypto included). On another front, the BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa + new members) are continuing their de-dollarization agenda in 2025. At the BRICS summit in October 2024, they discussed creating a new gold-backed reserve currency (“the Unit”) as an alternative to the U.S. dollar investingnews.com . They also announced a BRICS blockchain-based payment network (“BRICS Bridge”) to connect their financial systems via CBDCs, bypassing Western networks investingnews.com . Going into 2025, these initiatives are expected to progress (with Russia currently chairing BRICS). While a full-fledged BRICS currency may be years away (and faces hurdles moderndiplomacy.eu ), the bloc’s move to settle more trade in non-USD currencies is already underway (by 2023, roughly 20% of oil trades were in other currencies) investingnews.com . Implication: A shift toward a more multi-polar currency world could weaken U.S. dollar dominance over time investingnews.com . For crypto, this trend is intriguing – as nations seek dollar alternatives, Bitcoin’s appeal as a neutral, supranational asset may rise. In sanctioned or economically volatile countries, both elites and the public might accelerate adoption of crypto for cross-border value storage. For example, U.S. sanctions on Russia and China have already catalyzed talk of reserve diversification investingnews.com . Fidelity analysts note that “rising inflation, currency debasement and fiscal deficits” globally are making Bitcoin strategically attractive for even nation-states and central banks coindesk.com coindesk.com . Summing up: a backdrop of improving geopolitical stability (if realized) plus a weakening dollar regime provides a bullish macro and narrative case for borderless cryptocurrencies as we enter the second half of 2025. Fall 2025 (Sep–Nov): Institutional Inflows, Adoption & Tech Upgrades Surging Institutional Adoption: By autumn 2025, the cumulative effect of regulatory clarity and market maturation is a wave of institutional adoption unlike any prior cycle. In traditional finance, major U.S. banks and brokers are cautiously but steadily entering the crypto arena. Reuters reports that Wall Street banks are now receiving “green lights” from regulators to expand into crypto services, after years of hesitance reuters.com reuters.com . Many top banks have been internally testing crypto trading and custody via pilot programs reuters.com . As one example, Charles Schwab’s CEO said in May 2025 that regulator signals are “flashing pretty green” for large firms, and confirmed Schwab plans to offer spot crypto trading to clients within a year reuters.com . Banks like BNY Mellon, State Street, and Citigroup – which collectively manage trillions – are expected to roll out crypto custody solutions by 2025, often via partnerships with crypto-native custodians dlnews.com . The OCC has explicitly authorized banks to handle crypto custody and stablecoins (under proper safeguards), removing a key barrier reuters.com . And the SEC’s friendlier stance under new leadership means banks no longer face punitive capital charges for holding digital assets reuters.com . The net effect is that by late 2025, institutional-grade crypto infrastructure is falling into place. More pension funds, endowments, and asset managers can allocate to crypto through familiar channels (regulated custodians, ETFs, prime brokers). Even conservative banking giants are warming up: Bank of America’s CEO stated the bank “will embrace cryptocurrencies for payments if regulations permit” and hinted at possibly launching a BOA stablecoin for settlement reuters.com . Likewise, Fidelity and BlackRock’s crypto units are expanding offerings after seeing outsized demand. This institutional legitimization dramatically expands the pool of potential investors in crypto markets, supporting a higher total market capitalization. Crypto ETF Expansion: In Q4 2025, the roster of crypto-based ETFs and funds is likely to broaden further. As noted, analysts foresee 50+ crypto ETFs by end of 2025 under the pro-industry U.S. regulatory regime coindesk.com . By fall, we may see Ethereum spot ETFs (building on the successful Bitcoin products) and even funds for large-cap altcoins. For instance, Nate Geraci of The ETF Store predicts spot Solana and XRP ETFs are on the horizon in the U.S. coindesk.com . Internationally, Canada and Europe already have multiple crypto ETPs – their continued growth adds to global inflows. With a year of performance history by late ’25, crypto ETFs will likely start seeing allocations from more conservative institutions (insurance firms, corporate treasuries, etc.) that needed to observe initially. Fidelity’s strategists noted that in 2024 much of the ETF buying came from retail and independent advisors, but 2025 could bring uptake from hedge funds, RIAs, and pensions as comfort grows coindesk.com coindesk.com . In summary, fall 2025 should witness accelerating capital inflows via investment vehicles, as crypto solidifies its place in mainstream portfolios. This sustained demand – “2025’s flows will easily surpass 2024’s” according to one strategist coindesk.com – provides a steady bid under crypto asset prices, reinforcing a bullish trend. Nation-State and Sovereign Adoption: A notable development to watch in late 2025 is the entry of nation-states and public institutions into Bitcoin. Fidelity Digital Assets published a report calling 2025 a potential “game changer in terms of bitcoin adoption”, predicting that more nation-states, central banks, sovereign wealth funds, and treasuries will buy BTC as a strategic reserve asset coindesk.com . The rationale is that with rising inflation and heavy debt loads, governments face currency debasement and financial instability, making Bitcoin an attractive hedge coindesk.com . By Q4 2025, we could see early signs of this trend. For example, there are rumors that Russia and Brazil have explored holding Bitcoin reserves fortune.com , and Middle Eastern sovereign funds flush with petrodollars might quietly accumulate crypto as diversification. In the U.S., President Trump and crypto-friendly lawmakers like Senator Cynthia Lummis have openly discussed establishing a U.S. Bitcoin reserve or adding BTC to Treasury holdings coindesk.com . Lummis even introduced a “Bitcoin Reserve” bill in 2024, which if enacted would set a precedent for national adoption coindesk.com . While such bold moves might not happen overnight, even small allocations by governments or central banks would be symbolically massive. It would validate crypto’s role as “digital gold” and potentially ignite FOMO among other nations (a game theory dynamic Fidelity’s report alludes to). Thus by late 2025, any announcements of central banks buying Bitcoin or countries mining/holding crypto (similar to El Salvador’s earlier example) could spur a bullish frenzy. At minimum, the expectation of this “sovereign bid” provides a narrative supporting the market. As Fidelity’s analysts put it: not owning some Bitcoin may soon be seen as a greater risk for governments than owning it coindesk.com . Ethereum & Crypto Tech Upgrades: The latter part of 2025 is also packed with technological catalysts in the crypto sector, which can boost investor optimism. Chief among these is Ethereum’s roadmap milestones. Ethereum core developers plan to deliver major scaling improvements by end-2025 as part of “The Surge” phase bitrue.com . This includes fully rolling out sharding – splitting the blockchain into parallel “shards” – combined with widespread Layer-2 rollups, aiming to increase throughput to 100,000+ transactions per second bitrue.com . If Ethereum achieves this by Q4 2025, it would vastly lower fees and increase capacity, enabling a new wave of decentralized application growth. For users, that means faster, cheaper transactions; for the market, it means Ethereum becomes more valuable as utilization can skyrocket without bottlenecks. Progress is well underway: an intermediate upgrade (EIP-4844 “proto-danksharding”) was implemented earlier to boost Layer-2 efficiency, and the next major upgrade (code-named Pectra) is slated for Q1 2025 focusing on validator improvements and blob data throughput fidelitydigitalassets.com . After that, the final sharding implementation is expected. By late 2025, Ethereum’s evolution – including MEV mitigation (The Scourge) and Verkle trees for lighter nodes (The Verge) – should make the network more scalable, secure, and decentralized bitrue.com . These upgrades are bullish for the ecosystem: a more scalable Ethereum can host more DeFi, NFT, and gaming activity, attracting capital and users from traditional tech. Investors may speculate on ETH demand rising with network activity. Beyond Ethereum, other protocols (Solana, Cardano, Layer-2s like Arbitrum, etc.) also have roadmap milestones during this period, potentially improving their value propositions. Overall, the tech backdrop in late 2025 is one of significant improvement, which supports a positive market outlook – the infrastructure will be ready for mainstream scale just as interest returns. Bitcoin Halving Aftermath: Although the Bitcoin halving took place in April 2024, its bullish impact historically materializes with a lag of 12-18 months. That puts late 2025 into early 2026 right in the window when the post-halving cycle may reach a euphoric phase. By fall 2025, Bitcoin’s supply issuance will have been at half its prior rate for ~18 months, potentially leading to a supply-demand squeeze if demand surges. ARK Invest notes that previous halvings (2012, 2016, 2020) all coincided with the early stages of major bull markets ark-invest.com . Indeed, by Q4 2025 we may see this pattern repeating. ARK’s analysts observed in late 2024 that Bitcoin remained roughly on track with its four-year cycle and expressed “optimism about prospects for the next 6–12 months” following the April 2024 halving ark-invest.com . That optimism appears well-founded if macro conditions and adoption trends align as discussed. By November 2025, Bitcoin could be approaching or exceeding its previous all-time high ( ~$69K from 2021) – some crypto analysts foresee six-figure prices during this cycle. Importantly, a rising Bitcoin tide tends to lift the entire crypto market cap. Late 2025 could see a broad rally across altcoins, often referred to as “altseason,” as new retail and institutional money, emboldened by Bitcoin’s strength, diversifies into higher-beta crypto assets. The expectation of the halving-driven bull cycle can itself become a self-fulfilling sentiment booster: investors position ahead of it, providing additional buy pressure. In summary, fall 2025 is poised to be the crescendo of the Bitcoin halving cycle, with historical analogues (2013, 2017, 2021) suggesting a powerful uptrend in crypto prices. Reduced BTC supply + peak cycle FOMO + all the fundamental drivers (ETF flows, low rates, tech upgrades) make this timeframe particularly conducive to a bullish market cap expansion. Winter 2025–26 (Dec–Feb): Peak Momentum and Continued Tailwinds Bull Market Momentum: Entering winter 2025/26, the crypto market could be in full bull mode. If the above developments play out, total crypto market capitalization may be approaching new highs by late 2025, driven by strong fundamentals and investor FOMO. Historically, the final leg of crypto bull markets sees parabolic gains and surging liquidity inflows. We might witness that in Dec 2025 – Feb 2026: exuberant sentiment, mainstream media coverage of Bitcoin “breaking records,” and increased retail participation. Unlike the 2017 and 2021 peaks, however, this cycle has far greater institutional involvement, which could imply more sustainable capital inflows (and possibly a larger magnitude of inflows). Key macro factors are likely to remain supportive through early 2026: central banks that began easing in 2024-25 may continue to hold rates low or even consider renewed asset purchases if economies are soft. For instance, if a mild U.S. recession hits in late 2025, the Fed and peers could respond with quantitative easing or liquidity facilities, effectively “printing” money that often finds its way into asset markets, including crypto nasdaq.com . China’s PBoC could also inject stimulus to boost growth, adding to global liquidity. Such actions would prolong the “risk-on” environment into 2026, delaying any end to the crypto uptrend. Additionally, global equity markets are projected to be strong in this scenario (buoyed by low rates and easing geopolitical tensions), and crypto’s correlation with equities means a rising stock tide lifts crypto too – as was observed in May 2025 when stock rallies coincided with BTC and ETH jumps blockchain.news blockchain.news . Investor Sentiment and Retail Revival: By early 2026, investor sentiment toward crypto could be the most bullish since 2021. With clear regulatory frameworks, high-profile endorsements (even governments buying in), and tech narratives (Web3, AI+blockchain, etc.), the stage is set for a positive feedback loop. Retail investors who largely sat out during the harsh 2022–23 bear market may fully return, spurred by “fear of missing out” as they see Bitcoin and popular altcoins climbing. This broadening of participation (from hedge funds down to everyday investors globally) increases market breadth and can drive total market cap to climactic heights. Notably, the availability of user-friendly investment onramps – e.g. spot crypto ETFs through any brokerage, crypto offerings integrated in fintech apps and banks – makes it much easier for average investors to allocate to crypto in 2025-26 than in past cycles. The removal of friction means inflows can ramp up faster and larger. Social media and pop culture hype also tend to peak in late-stage bulls; we might see Bitcoin and Ethereum becoming water-cooler talk again, drawing in new demographics. All of this contributes to strong sentiment and capital inflows in winter 2025/26, reinforcing the bullish outlook. Continued Policy and Geopolitical Tailwinds: The policy landscape is expected to remain a tailwind into 2026. In the U.S., if the pro-crypto Trump administration stays aligned with its promises, we could see additional positive actions: perhaps tax clarity for digital assets, streamlined ETF approvals for more crypto categories, or even federal guidelines for banks to hold crypto on balance sheets. Such steps would further normalize crypto within the financial system. Regulatory coordination internationally might also improve – for example, G20 nations in 2025 have been working on a global crypto reporting framework and stablecoin standards, which, once implemented, reduce the risk of harsh crackdowns in any major economy. On the geopolitical front, the BRICS de-dollarization efforts might bear first fruit by 2026, such as increased trade settled in yuan, gold, or even Bitcoin. If Saudi Arabia (a new BRICS invitee) starts pricing some oil in non-USD, that could weaken dollar liquidity at the margins, and some of that displaced value might flow to alternative stores like crypto or gold. Additionally, by 2026 the world will be looking ahead to the next U.S. Presidential election cycle (2028) – typically, in the lead-up, administrations prefer supportive economic conditions. This could mean fiscal stimulus or at least no new financial regulations that rock markets, implying a benign policy environment for risk assets. In Europe, 2026 will see MiCA fully operational and possibly updated with new provisions for DeFi and NFTs, further integrating the crypto market. In sum, early 2026 should carry forward many of 2025’s positive drivers – ample liquidity, regulatory support, and growing mainstream acceptance – giving little reason to suspect an abrupt end to the bullish trend during this window. Bitcoin Halving Cycle Peak: If history rhymes, the crypto market might reach a cycle peak somewhere around late 2025 or early 2026. Past bull cycles (2013, 2017, 2021) peaked roughly 12-18 months after the halving; a similar timeframe would put a possible top in the Dec 2025 – Feb 2026 period. That could mean Bitcoin at unprecedented price levels and total crypto market cap in multi-trillions, barring any unforeseen shocks. ARK Invest’s analysis as of late 2024 remained optimistic that Bitcoin was “in sync with historical cycles” and poised for strong performance into 2025 ark-invest.com . By early 2026, those cycle dynamics (diminished new supply vs. surging demand) might reach a crescendo. One metric to watch is the stock-to-flow or issuance rate – post-halving Bitcoin’s inflation rate is below 1%, lower than gold’s, which can drive the digital gold narrative to its zenith at this point. Moreover, Ethereum’s upcoming transition to a deflationary issuance (with EIP-1559 fee burns and Proof-of-Stake) means ETH could also be seeing declining supply into 2026, potentially amplifying its price if demand spikes. Thus, both of the top crypto assets would have increasing scarcity dynamics during the period when interest is highest – a recipe for a dramatic run-up. Importantly, capital rotations within crypto during peak phases often send smaller altcoins skyrocketing (as investors seek outsized gains), temporarily boosting total market cap beyond just Bitcoin’s contribution. All told, the early 2026 period could represent the euphoric apex of this cycle’s bull market, supported by solid macro and fundamental fuel laid in the preceding months. Even if volatility will be high, the overall outlook through February 2026 remains strongly bullish for crypto’s total market capitalization, given the confluence of loose monetary conditions, favorable policy shifts, geopolitical diversification into crypto, institutional FOMO, and major network upgrades powering the narrative. ✨ Philosophical Reflection In the ever-unfolding rhythm of cycles—accumulation, expansion, distribution, and reset—crypto mirrors the deeper architecture of nature and consciousness. Just as seeds lie dormant in winter awaiting the kiss of spring, so too does capital bide its time in the shadows before surging into momentum. The Fibonacci spirals found in shells, storms, and galaxies reappear in price action—offering not just numbers, but a language of emergence. What we witness in the TOTAL market cap is not just a breakout—it is a reawakening. A collective pulse of belief, liquidity, and intention. In this confluence of technical geometry and macroeconomic tides, the market becomes more than price—it becomes a story, a symbol, a signal. We don’t just analyze this chart—we read it like a sacred map, charting the ascent of value, vision, and velocity.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALLong
by BitonGroup
Follow the Flow: Trading with Liquidity ZonesLiquidity is where the market breathes. The Liquidity Zones indicator by BigBeluga helps traders visualize where large players may be hiding orders—revealing the zones where price is most likely to react, reverse, or accelerate. Let’s break down how this tool works, how we use it at Xuantify, and how you can integrate it into your own strategy. 🔍 What Is the Liquidity Zones Indicator? This open-source tool identifies pivot highs and lows filtered by volume strength and plots them as liquidity zones —highlighting areas where buy/sell orders are likely to accumulate. Key Features: Volume-filtered pivot detection (Low, Mid, High) Dynamic or static liquidity zone boxes Color intensity based on volume strength Liquidity grab detection with visual cues These zones act as magnets for price , helping traders anticipate where reactions, reversals, or stop hunts may occur. 🧠 How We Use It at Xuantify We use Liquidity Zones as a contextual map for structure and execution. 1. Entry & Exit Planning We align entries near untested liquidity zones and use them as targets for exits—especially when confirmed by structure or momentum. 2. Liquidity Grab Detection When price pierces a zone and reverses, it often signals a liquidity sweep . We use this as a trigger for reversal setups. 3. Volume Context Zones with higher volume intensity are prioritized. These are more likely to attract institutional activity and generate stronger reactions. 🧭 Dynamic vs. Static Zones The indicator offers both dynamic and static zone modes: Dynamic : Box height adjusts based on normalized volume, showing how much liquidity is likely present. Static : Consistent box size for cleaner visuals and easier backtesting. Why this matters: Dynamic zones reflect real-time volume strength Static zones offer simplicity and clarity Both modes help visualize where price is likely to “grab” liquidity ⚙️ Settings That Matter To get the most out of this tool, we recommend: Volume Strength = Mid or High for cleaner zones Enable Dynamic Mode when trading volatile assets Use Color Intensity to quickly spot high-liquidity areas 🔗 Best Combinations with This Indicator We pair Liquidity Zones with: Market Structure Tools – BOS/CHOCH for context Momentum Indicators – Like RSI or MACD for confirmation Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) – For precision entries near liquidity This layered approach helps us trade into liquidity , not against it. ⚠️ What to Watch Out For Liquidity zones are not signals —they’re context . In fast-moving or low-volume markets, price may ignore zones or overshoot them. Always combine with structure and confirmation. 🔁 Repainting Behavior The Liquidity Zones indicator is designed to be non-repainting . However, due to waiting for pivot confirmation, the zones are plotted in hindsight. This makes it suitable for real-time execution . ⏳ Lagging or Leading? This tool is partially lagging —it waits for pivot confirmation and volume validation before plotting a zone. However, once plotted, these zones often act as leading levels , helping traders anticipate where price may react next. 🚀 Final Thoughts The Liquidity Zones indicator by BigBeluga is a powerful visual tool for traders who want to understand where the market is likely to move—not just where it’s been. Whether you’re trading reversals, breakouts, or mean reversion, this tool helps you stay aligned with the market’s hidden intent. Add it to your chart, test it, and see how it sharpens your edge.
Education
by Xuantify
1
GU| Patiently Watching This Setup Cook4H gave me the (BOS) break of structure to the downside - that's my bearish intent on the higher timeframe. Price could climb into the supply zone above before delivering that reversal. Dropped to the 30M, structure is still bullish for now, showing strong momentum. Now it's a waiting game... Do we dip to take out that sell-side liquidity (SSL) for a clean buy setup first? Or... are we already mitigating the 4H supply and about to print a bearish shift on 30M? Either way, I'm letting price tell me the truth. No chasing. No guessing. Just real logic with structure & inducement flow. Stay sharp. Bless Trading!
by Juicemannn
1
"BTC hit TP - exactly how I mapped it out."Patience, structure, and precision. I said what I said, drew what I drew, and price did exactly what I expected. No guessing, no hoping - just reading price and letting it come to me. Too many traders chase candles. I waited for structure to align, watched price respect the levels I outlined, and took the trade when the market gave me confirmation. This isn't luck - it's consistency through discipline and clarity. + TP smashed. + Structure respected. + Psychology intact. Stay Sharp. Let price speak. Read it right, and it'll hand you what you're looking for. #BTC #Bitcoin #SmartMoney #PriceAction #PatiencePays #inducementKing Bless Trading!
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by Juicemannn
2
BTC Re - Entry - Eyes locked on Them 30M HighsPrice came back lookin' too good to ignore - clean reaction off my 100.00 Fib, tucked just below the IDM zone. That 5M order block gave me the nod, and I didn't hesitate. Re-entered with full intent: this ain't a gamble, it's precision. Structure still bullish, liquidity aboce them 30M hghs is callin'. I'm just walkin' price to the money. Let's see is BTC plays out how she whispered she would. #SMC #BTCUSD #PriceAction #OrderBlock #LiquidityRun #FibMastery #5MEntry #30MTarget
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by Juicemannn
If Trend Reverses, We'll Most likely See 106-109k FirstTrading Fam, We'll bring our knowledge of liquidity to the chart here today. You guys know that my new indicator utilizes liquidity as a prime factor in helping to alert us when to buy and sell any given asset. In our chart here today, I have also brought over the liquidation map from Glassnode, which will help us gain further insight into what Bitcoin's next move might be. First, let me explain a few of the drawing here. For those who may be new, those liquidity blocks are printed by LuxAlgo's "Liquidity Swings" indicator. I have incorporated them into my indicator and have combined it with another to alert me as to exactly when it might become a good time to buy or sell. Typically, I set the blocks to have a 15 day life cycle. When we are overbought and enter into a sell-side liquidity block, my indicator will flash a red dot. When we are oversold and enter into a buy-side liquidity block, my indicator will flash a green dot. These are typically super-accurate signals and are, at least, a good time to start your exits and/or entries but unfortunately, these DOTS DO NOT APPEAR in this chart due to this being a private indicator distributed by invite only. I use additional indicators for confirmation and to support what my indicator is showing me, such as the VRVP. You can see the VRVP Point of Control (PoC) is at 96,425 in this chart, meaning that most of our recent traded volume is to the underside of us right now. This is positive. However, it is important to recognize that sometimes that PoC can act as sort of a magnet to pull price back to that area before further directional price trend movement. Keep this in mind as we continue to consider price movement here. Back to the liquidity blocks. I've extended our last big liquidity block from Jan-Feb of this year out past the normal 15 day life cycle that I usually set. I think this is important as it appears to align with the data that I've brought over from Glassnode's Liquidation Map. Notice that on the map you see large liquidity pools both below the current price and also, above it. But the larger liquidity pool remains above us at the time of this post. This aligns with the resistance levels I have drawn on the chart in white which remain above us. And currently, we are also forming a bull flag pattern. So, are greatest probability of price movement right now remains to the upside. I am targeting that 106-108k area. Once hit, trend reversal could occur. Here's what I expect. We hit 106-108k. Then, at this point, the market must make a critical decision; do we continue up, beating previous highs, or do we first drop down and liquidate all those late longs from 93-104k? Now, since we know that big money is in this game and wants as much as they can get at the best price possible, it is easier to determine what might occur. I suggest that once liquidation occurs up to 106-108k, sell-side pressure will be placed on the market in hopes of driving price back down to clean out all of those late long entries. That PoC level at around 96k is a good target here. Once this price has been hit, freeing up hundreds of millions in liquidated Bitcoin, the big buyers (smart money) will step back in to swoop up the loot and Bitcoin will be free to trend back up again. Now, as always, I could be wrong. Let's talk about what happens if we beat our 106-108k overhead resistance levels. In this case, we could see Bitcoin pump as high as 125k before any local trend reversal begins to occur. I will re-assess at this point. BLUF: 106-108k is key resistance. Mark your charts and keep your eye on what price does there. It will be key to what happens next. ✌️Stew
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by stewdamus
5
BTC Rocket Fuel Loading.... Get ReadyBTC looking like it's about to lift off from that internal order flow zone. I keep it clean, pretty, and systematic - and that's exactly how I plan to buy up this next key area. Scalpers, you already know - LTF confirmations are whispering bullish. Day traders, this might be the last good push before we either reverse or break the whole zone down. Me? I'm watching for that 5M CHoCH to give me the green light. When it flips - I flip. Until then, patience. Trade with precision. Keep it SMC. #BTC #SmartMoneyConcepts #OrderFlow #InducementsHunter #5MCHoCH #RocketReady Bless Trading!
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by Juicemannn
BTC Long Bias – Here’s the BreakdownEveryone’s screaming “99K dump” — I’m not buying it. Price swept BSL at the highs without touching the 30M OB that caused the move down. But instead of breaking down, it formed bullish structure and held. That tells me smart money isn’t done buying yet. 🎯 Entry Zone: 101K–102K (where price showed strength) 🎯 Target: 104,979.32 (previous 30M high + liquidity resting there) Price respected the bullish structure and gave the reaction I called off the demand zone. Now just waiting for a clean 5M entry with inducement + OB. Let the rest wait on 99K. I’ll follow what the market actually tells me. #BTC #SmartMoney #SMC #Inducement #OrderBlocks #TradeWhatYouSee Bless Trading!
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by Juicemannn
BTC Update - Called It Clean Just like I marked up - price came right into that (demand zone) and gave us the bullish reaction I expected. Zone held strong. No flinch. No cap. Now that the higher timeframe has done its job, I'm down here on the lower timeframes hunting entries like a sniper. Patience. Precision. Letting the market walk into my trap. IF you know, you know. Smart Money always leaves a footprint. I just follow the trail. #BTC #SmartMoneyConcepts #SMC #ForexTrader #CryptoTrader #PriceAction #Liquidity #Inducement #OrderBlock #RefinedEntries #LuxAlgoConfirmation #TopDownAnalysis
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by Juicemannn
1
XAUUSD Daily Sniper Plan – Monday, May 12, 2025“Structure First. Noise Later. Gold Moves Clean When You Do.” ⚖️🧠 Intraday Bias: Bullish, short-term recovery inside broader pullback Structure: CHoCH confirmed at 3284 → market forming higher low structure 🔍 H1 Market Flow Overview: Price broke structure above 3284–3292, forming a clean CHoCH on H1. Since then, price impulsively pushed toward 3340, pausing around 3314–3318. EMAs (5/21/50) are starting to align bullish, with EMA5 now crossing above 21. Volume compression + wicks suggest potential accumulation in the 3314–3318 zone. 📌 Key H1 Zones (Above & Below Price) 🔺 Resistance Zones Zone Description 3340–3345 Friday’s high + intraday liquidity trap zone 3380–3395 Strong H1/Daily confluence resistance (OB + FVG) 🔻 Support Zones Zone Description 3314–3318 🔵 Micro liquidity pocket + HL accumulation zone – potential inducement/reentry base 3284–3292 🔵 CHoCH base – must hold for bullish structure to continue 3260–3265 🔵 Deep intraday OB + liquidity sweep zone 3220–3235 🔵 Major HTF demand – structural last line of defense 🔁 Scenarios for Monday (May 12): 🟢 Bullish Setup: If price holds above 3314–3318, we may see a reattempt toward 3340, then potentially push into 3380–3395. Retest of 3314 zone could serve as HL confirmation before breakout. 🔴 Bearish Setup: If 3314 fails and price closes below 3284, this invalidates current bullish micro-structure. In that case, we target 3260 or even 3235 depending on momentum. Rejection from 3340 or 3380 without BOS → short toward 3284 or 3250 Clean break below 3284 flips LTF bearish 🎯 Sniper Logic: Gold is trapped in a battle between Friday’s high and the CHoCH base. The true breakout will come once either 3345 is reclaimed clean, or 3284 fails hard. Until then, play inside structure — sniper entries only. 💬 Final Words: Gold doesn’t bluff — but it does bait and trap. Mark your zones, wait for confirmation, and let the impulsive ones get hunted. Gold doesn’t care about your bias — only about the zones that hold. If 3284 stays protected, bulls might reload. If it cracks, fade the optimism and follow the flow down. 🟡 Stay smart. Stay patient. And remember: clean structure = clean profit. ✨ Drop your thoughts in the comments, smash that like, and follow GoldFxMinds for sniper-level clarity every session.
VANTAGE:XAUUSD
by GoldFxMinds
6
XAUUSD Weekly Outlook – May 12–17, 2025High Timeframe Bias: Bullish with active pullback under premium supply 🔍 Macro Structure Insight: Market structure remains bullish on Weekly, with a recent ATH at ~3500. Price showed a strong rejection from the 3448–3500 premium supply zone but found support near 3284–3292. We are currently in a retracement phase, and the next few candles will determine if it’s a reload or deeper correction. 📌 Key Weekly Structural Zones Zone / Level Description 3500 ✅ ATH – liquidity sweep & rejection 3448–3500 🔺 Premium Weekly Supply – key rejection zone 3380–3395 🔁 Weekly FVG – potential short-term resistance 3284–3292 🔵 Fresh Support – demand reaction after daily wick bounce 3220–3250 🔵 HTF Weekly Demand – equilibrium & previous BOS zone 3120–3150 ❗ Critical Support – losing this would break bullish structure 📈 Fibonacci Weekly Extension Zones (Above ATH – 2285 → 3500 Leg) Extension Level Target Price Description 1.0 3500 Current ATH 1.12 3560 First minor extension 1.18 3590 Shallow breakout target 1.236 3620 Key fibo confluence zone 1.272 3645 Round-level + breakout magnet 1.33 3680 Sentiment shift potential 1.414 3720 Major HTF fibo extension 1.5 3760 Mid-range round milestone 1.618 3800–3820 Golden extension + HTF magnet zone 🔁 Scenarios for This Week: Bullish Continuation: If 3284–3250 holds as a higher low → market may aim for 3380–3395, then test 3448–3500 again. Breaking above ATH could trigger targets toward 3560 → 3590 → 3645. Bearish Retracement: If price breaks below 3250, a deeper move toward 3120–3150 could begin. This would threaten the weekly bullish leg. ⚠️ Watch for: Weekly close below 3250 = short-term bearish shift Push and hold above 3360–3380 = signs of bullish continuation Rejection from 3448–3500 again = potential double-top liquidity trap
VANTAGE:XAUUSD
by GoldFxMinds
US100 - Liquidity sweep likely before bullish continuationFollowing a significant upward move last week, the US100 (Nasdaq 100 index) has entered a period of consolidation, currently exhibiting a ranging structure characterized by lower highs and relatively equal lows. This pattern typically suggests a tightening market where bullish momentum is cooling but not yet decisively reversed. The presence of equal lows is particularly notable from a liquidity perspective. In retail trading behavior, such levels often attract a high concentration of stop-loss orders placed just below the support zone. Market participants perceive these lows as a reliable level of support, but in doing so, they inadvertently create a pocket of liquidity just beneath them. Institutional players and market makers are well aware of these dynamics. It's common in such scenarios to witness what is known as a liquidity sweep, a short-term move below support levels to trigger stop-losses, fill large buy orders, and shake out weaker hands before the market resumes its dominant trend. Given the current context, there's a high probability that we may see a downside sweep targeting the liquidity resting beneath the equal lows. This move would likely be swift and sharp, clearing out stop orders before a potential bullish reversal unfolds. If confirmed, such a move could mark the end of the current range and initiate a new impulsive leg higher in the broader uptrend. Traders should watch for signs of price rejection or bullish divergence following the sweep as potential confirmation of this scenario. Until then, it’s prudent to remain patient and avoid getting trapped in the chop, especially near well-watched support zones. ------------------------------- Thanks for your support. - Make sure to follow me so you don't miss out on the next analysis! - Drop a like and leave a comment!
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by Youriverse
47
#M30 BUYING MODULEIn this analysis we're focusing on M30 time frame for GOLD. Here we see clearly that price creates Bullish trendline and also price give respect to the trendline. According to price action and my analysis I'm expecting that price come back and retest my zone, and observe the reaction of price. If price give any bullish confirmation than we'll execute our trade. This is M30 time frame analysis once price reaches our zone switch to the lower time frame to find perfect entry point. Let's delve deeper into these levels and potential outcomes. Always use stoploss for your trade. Always use proper money management and proper risk to reward ratio. This is my analysis. #XAUUSD 30M Technical Analysis Expected Move.
FXOPEN:XAUUSDLong
by TradeTacticsreal