Intraday NQ setupI’d like to see if we can sweep some Buy Side Liquidity before trying to move lower today. We are currently at some strong Demand zones that we have already tested and are becoming WEAKER. If we can sweep those equal highs and reject the 15m Supply we might be in for a strong move lower today. Until I see a strong setup through demand or the setup I mentioned, I will not take any shorts.
No setup = no trade
Liquidity
SEC Ends Ethereum 2.0 Investigation
Bitcoin prices fell Monday as nearly $500 million in positions were liquidated: Long positions took the majority of the losses.
Deutsche Telekom, parent company of T-Mobile, to join Bitcoin mining sector: The move could enhance network security but also increase competition among miners.
Consensys says SEC has ended its Ethereum 2.0 investigation: The announcement confirmed that ETH sales are not securities transactions – marking a significant victory for the space.
The Financial Stability Board met in Toronto to discuss regulatory challenges presented by stablecoins: The collaboration with the IMF began last year, with plans to produce a policy paper on the issue.
Waka Flocka Flame's new memecoin, FLOCKA, launched on the Solana blockchain, faces criticism amid a roughly 77% price drop: The massive falloff highlighted one of the major issues with the celeb-coin trend.
🐕 Topic of the Week: Shiba Inu: The Doge-Inspired Upstart Memecoin
👉 Read more here
EURUSD:: IntradayBy taking a deeper look at Daily chart we could easily see a bearish move!
Latest reaction was to top of the channel an we are going to reach to bottom of the channel. However, We see the RSI is forming a trend line which seems hard to be broken down. I think we could see a reversal to MA of RSI. So we might have one or two range days. Therefore we are both ready for Bearish and range days.
By taking a look to 1h chart we could see that a great zone to short the pair is available!
However by breaking the 1.0770 we could consider the trend bullish.
What is obvious in the main chart is that today Fibonacci R1 is in coincide with yesterday Pivot and these two are perfectly in our zone!
I'm waiting to sell from there! the channel in 15m chart could be used as liquidity hunt! These are important levels of today you can search for more reasons or places to short the pair
Forex Market Liquidity: Analysis and Implications for TradersForex Market Liquidity: Analysis and Implications for Traders
The foreign exchange market is renowned for its dynamic and fast-paced nature. As traders navigate this landscape, understanding the concept of liquidity becomes crucial. In this article, we analyse its components, explore factors that influence it, measure and analyse its impact, discuss potential risks for traders, and present real-life examples to illustrate its implications.
What Is Liquidity in the Forex Market?
Liquidity in the forex market refers to the ease with which a currency pair can be bought or sold without causing a significant change in its price. Highly liquid assets are usually easily tradable, while less liquid assets may experience more considerable price fluctuations during transactions and bear higher spreads.
Liquidity Components
The liquidity of a currency pair is influenced by several factors, which traders need to consider when constructing a liquidity-proof trading strategy. These include the market depth, the bid-ask spread, and the trading volume.
- Market depth represents the number of buy and sell orders at different price levels in the order book. A deep market with many orders at different price levels typically suggests higher liquidity.
- The bid-ask spread is the difference between the highest price a buyer agrees to pay and the lowest price a seller agrees to accept. A narrower spread typically indicates higher liquidity, while a wider spread reflects lower liquidity. Traders often monitor the spread to gauge current conditions.
- Trading volume refers to the total number of currency units traded within a specified period. Higher trading volume generally indicates greater liquidity, signalling a robust trend. Low trading volume could indicate liquidity issues.
Risks for Traders Arising From Liquidity Levels in Forex
Liquidity is a crucial consideration for traders as it directly affects transaction costs and the ease of entering or exiting positions. High levels generally result in lower transaction costs and less slippage, providing traders with potentially more exciting conditions. Additionally, liquidity may contribute to price stability, reducing the impact of large trades on prices.
Low levels, on the other hand, can pose certain risks that traders must be aware of. In illiquid markets, larger trades can have a more pronounced impact on prices, potentially resulting in random price movements and unfavourable execution prices. Forex market liquidity implications suggest that low liquidity can lead to increased volatility, making it challenging to analyse price movements accurately. In low liquidity conditions, traders may also experience slippage and delays in order execution, impacting the efficiency of trades.
Factors Influencing Liquidity in Forex Trading
Various factors influence current market liquidity in the forex market, and understanding these dynamics is essential for traders:
- Market Participants: The presence of a diverse range of participants, including retail traders, institutional investors, and central banks, contributes to liquidity. A balanced mix of participants often leads to a more liquid market.
- Economic Indicators: Economic releases, such as employment data, GDP figures, and interest rate decisions, can significantly impact a currency’s trading activity. Traders often witness increased volatility before and after such data is released, affecting market liquidity.
- Time of Day: Forex operates 24 hours a day, five days a week. Volume varies depending on the time of day, with peak liquidity during the overlap of major trading sessions.
Forex Market Liquidity Indicators and Measures
Assessing quantitative metrics is a fundamental initial step in a profound forex market liquidity analysis. Let’s discuss some popular indicators which can help evaluate the liquidity level using the trading volume:
- On-Balance Volume (OBV): OBV assesses the strength of a price trend by evaluating the relationship between volume flow and price movements. Higher liquidity often accompanies stronger and more sustained price trends.
- Volume Oscillator: When the volume oscillator is positive or above a specific threshold, it indicates that the recent trading volume has been relatively high. This may suggest that there is more liquidity in the asset.
- Money Flow Index (MFI): The MFI considers trading volume as a component of its calculation. A high trading volume, when combined with significant price movements, can result in a higher MFI reading, indicating strong market participation and potentially higher liquidity. A low trading volume during price movements may result in a lower MFI reading, suggesting reduced liquidity and potentially less market interest.
Price Gaps: In illiquid markets, there are fewer participants and lower trading volumes. In such conditions, price gaps are more likely to happen and can be more substantial. With fewer participants, it becomes challenging to match buyers and sellers efficiently. As a result, a significant order or news event can lead to a notable price gap when the market reopens.
You can visit FXOpen and explore new trading opportunities for some of the most liquid currency pairs through the free TickTrader trading platform.
Real-Life Examples of FX Liquidity
To illustrate the importance of considering liquidity in a forex strategy and how it can impact trader behaviour, let’s consider some real-life examples:
The 2015 Swiss Franc Depegging
In 2015, the sudden decision by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to remove the Swiss Franc (CHF) peg against the euro had a profound impact on the forex. The depegging in January 2015 led to a sudden drop in value, causing not only an unprecedented shift in trading dynamics but also triggering a significant price gap. The market experienced a reduction in trading volume, highlighting the challenges of liquidity in the face of unexpected events.
High Volumes During Trading Session Overlaps
The EUR/USD currency pair experiences varying trading volumes throughout different global sessions, primarily influenced by the overlap of major trading hours. The chart below depicts the significant volume spikes occurring during the overlap between the European (UTC 08:00 - 17:00) and North American (UTC 13:00 - 22:00) sessions, commonly known as the "London-New York overlap." This period witnesses peak trading volumes, providing traders with optimal conditions for executing trades.
Takeaway
Understanding liquidity is paramount for traders navigating the complexities of the financial markets. By comprehending the components of trading activity and analysing influencing factors and their impact on real-life trading, traders may make more informed decisions to potentially reduce risks and optimise their trading strategies. You trade forex and commodity, stock, and index CFDs today by opening an FXOpen account!
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
PEPE is prepping somethingPEPE is on the 4h charts in an EQ and can go both ways. We want to see a breakout with volume before jumping into the action. The TT is the recent ATH where it will trigger the stop losses and could correct to the GP or even 0.786 fib range.
The liquidity is just below the EQ and just above the recent ATH. A stop loss hunt to 0.0137 can be expected before we go up.
ICT's Market Maker Model - An Easy to Understand GuideIn this video I try to explain ICT's Market Maker Model as simply as I can.
This model basically depicts how smart money efficiently facilitates their positions in the marketplace. It is important to understand some concepts beforehand, such as liquidity, AMD/PO3, market efficiency, crowd mentality, and the fractal nature of price.
I hope you find the video insightful and that it helps you utilize Market Maker Models in your trading.
- R2F
SOLUSD: Snapping Back to $210 | 70.70% Probability!BINANCE:SOLUSD has been drawing a lot of attention in the crypto space in the past few days due to its integration with NASDAQ:PYPL
Let's have a technical analysis breakdown:
BINANCE:SOLUSD According to my Free Probability Indicator , There's a 70.00% chance it could climb back over $210 and beyond, which is pretty much encouraging!
If you're thinking about trading LINK, here's what you should consider:
Entry:
Wait for clear signs that the price is going up again.
Once you're confident the trend is changing, consider buying LINK.
I'm currently looking at the 8H Equilibrium to get positioned.
Exit:
To protect yourself from drawdowns, consider setting a "trailing stop-loss." This will automatically trigger a sell order if the price starts dropping again after you buy, securing your running profits.
Risk Management:
Ensure you're not risking more money than you can afford to lose.
Only invest what you're comfortable with and consider how much you're willing to lose if things don't go as planned.
This isn't financial advice, just some insights to help you make informed decisions. Always do your own research before investing in anything.
Trade Like A Sniper - Episode 9 - NQ1- (31st May 2024)This video is part of a video series where I backtest a specific asset using the TradingView Replay function, and perform a top-down analysis in order to frame ONE high-probability setup. I choose a random point of time to replay, and begin to work my way down the timeframes. Trading like a sniper is not about entries with no drawdown. It is about careful planning, discipline, and taking your shot at the right time in the best of conditions.
A couple of things to note:
- I cannot see news events.
- I cannot change timeframes without affecting my bias due to higher-timeframe candles revealing its entire range.
- I cannot go to a very low timeframe due to the limit in amount of replayed candlesticks
In this session I will be analyzing E-mini NASDAQ, starting from the Weekly chart.
- R2F
ldo usd short signalLiq the fuel that moves the market
Carefully looking at the chart you will see that there is not enough liq to push the market up and that why the bears are taking control
Since the bears are in control for the short term a short signal to a buy poi wont be bad
Why the sell signal?
Market needs liq and it needs to take out all internal liq to be able to move higher
LINKUSD: Rallying Back to $20 | 72.73% Confidence!COINBASE:LINKUSD has been drawing a lot of attention in the crypto space in the past few days. It experienced a significant drop in price (-47%), but now it's starting to show signs of a potential rebound and might be heading bullish again.
Here's the breakdown:
COINBASE:LINKUSD price took a major hit over the past 2-3 months and has been consolidating since. According to my Free Probability Indicator , There's a 72.73% chance it could climb back over $20, which is pretty much encouraging!
This price drop might actually be beneficial as it presents a great opportunity to buy LINK at a lower price.
If you're thinking about trading LINK, here's what you should consider:
Entry:
Wait for clear signs that the price is going up again, like huge up-move candle showing strong positive movements on the daily chart.
Once you're confident the trend is changing, consider buying LINK.
I'm currently looking at the 4H Equilibrium to get positioned.
Exit:
To protect yourself from drawdowns, consider setting a "trailing stop-loss." This will automatically trigger a sell order if the price starts dropping again after you buy, securing your running profits.
Risk Management:
Ensure you're not risking more money than you can afford to lose.
Only invest what you're comfortable with and consider how much you're willing to lose if things don't go as planned.
This isn't financial advice, just some insights to help you make informed decisions. Always do your own research before investing in anything.
Does SPY bottom this week?SPY 5/24 Levels
As AMEX:SPY continues to climb and climb the bull rally has no sign of ending. We are expected to have slight weakness this week although seasonals are indicating this week is the bottom. The weekly levels are :
Market Makers Hedged - Upside $536.50 Downside $521.50
Markets Expectation - Upside $535.13 Downside $524.40
Liquidity Levels - Lay at the market expectations
Pivot - Yellow Box
BTCUSD: The Game of Probabilities | New ATH? 65.28% Chance!Medium-term analysis of COINBASE:BTCUSD indicates that the price is poised to surge towards new all-time highs, with a probability of 65.28%!
Let's get into the underlying reasons for this:
1. The current status on the "1D" timeframe is "Active," indicating that the price has already reached and touched the 50% equilibrium level on the current timeframe.
2. Since the price has reached the equilibrium level of the daily timeframe, our focus now shifts to determining which liquidity side presents higher probabilities compared to the other.
3. In this scenario, the 1D/BSL (Buyside liquidity) indicates a 65.28% probability of the price reaching the 73835.57 level again.
More details:
Feel free to share your thoughts or any feedback you have on the analysis.
Also, if you're interested in analyzing the probabilities directly on your charts make sure to check out the Free Public Indicator that I've published recently!
XAUUSD LONG AND SHORTHi Guys, its been a long time since i published an analysis. and I'm back again
Gold sore the other day and reached the 2379 level which was the resistance, and has managed to cool off those buyers.
As always there are some demand and supply levels to take trade from. Our immediate demand level would be around 53-49 which upon reaching, with confirmation we will take trades. If the level is breached other levels below would become possible long points.
Those who want to go short ,currently level around 73-75 is a suitable point and above that levels 85,93,403,412,....
My view is that Before continuing higher market needs to see lower prices and demand levels to test.
* As always add your own intuition and logic into this analysis and proceed with safety measures in place.
Be honorable
EURUSD 13-17 May 2024 W20 - Weekly Analysis - EU & US CPI Week!This is my Weekly analysis on EURUSD for 13-17 May 2024 W20 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:
Market Sentiment
Weekly Chart Analysis
Daily Chart Analysis
4H Chart Analysis
Economic Events for the Week
Market Sentiment
The narrative surrounding the monetary policy divergence between the Fed and the rest of its G10 peers continues to dominate the macro scenario in the market. On this, the FedWatch Tool tracked by CME Group sees the probability of a Fed’s rate reduction in September nearly 70%.
With the inflation reports expected this week (CPI), If inflation stays high but doesn't speed up much more, the Federal Reserve might keep interest rates higher for a longer time. This is because the market is worried about inflation staying high, and if there's a surprise where inflation doesn't increase as much as feared, the reaction will likely be smaller. Powell, said they would only raise rates if they had convincing proof that their current policies are too tight.
Right now, the market expects interest rates to be cut twice by the end of the year. However, if we see another report showing high inflation, those expectations might change. A weaker report might lead to just one rate cut being expected instead of two, but not much more than that. The Federal Reserve might wait until their meeting in September at the earliest to make any major decisions, unless there's a sudden worsening in the job market.
Weekly Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
Internal Bearish
Reached Swing EQ
Swing Continuation Phase (Pro Swing + Pro Internal)
2.
After the Bearish iBOS we confirmed that the Swing Pullback is over and we will target the Weak INT Low and the Weak Swing Low.
3.
Price had reached the Bearish INT Structure extreme and initiated the Bearish Internal Structure Continuation.
Expectation is to continue bearish and target he Weak INT Low.
4.
Price tapped into a Weekly demand zone that is currently providing Pullback for the continuation down to the Weak INT Low.
Daily Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
INT Bearish
Swing Continuation Phase (Pro Swing + Pro Internal)
2.
Internal Structure continuing bearish following the Bearish Swing.
3.
After the Bearish iBOS we expect a Pullback.
Price in a clear corrective move to the upside after tapping the Weekly Demand Zone which initiated the Bearish iBOS Pullback Phase.
As expected last week with the probability of a deep pullback, price reached the Daily Supply. With that deep Pullback, there is a HP that we can continue the Bearish INT Structure with expectation to target the Weak INT Low and possibly the Weak Swing Low.
More development required on LTF to show signs of Bearish Structure to validate the expectations.
4.
Daily and Weekly demand zones for reactions to fulfill the INT Pullback Phase.
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
Internal Bullish
Reached Swing EQ
INT Structure Pullback Phase
2.
Swing continuing bearish following the HTF Bearish Trend. Expectations is set for the Swing to stay bearish to fulfill the HTF targets.
3.
With the 4H INT is Bullish, it's for me not much aligning with the Daily TF which makes the view unclear from a trend prospective.
Are we going to hold Bullish Internal to maybe have a more deeper PB on Daily, or we are going to turn bearish on the 4H Internal to continue the Daily Swing/INT Structure trend.
With the current week inflationary reports coming out from EU and US, most probably we will have more price development that can facilitate a HP setups.
Economic Events for the Week
EURUSD 9 May 2024 W19 - Intraday Analysis - US Jobless ClaimsThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 9 May 2024 W19 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:
Market Sentiment
4H Chart Analysis
15m Chart Analysis
Market Sentiment
Nothing changed since the start of the week and as per Tuesday sentiment, investors are waiting for a catalyst to have a clear policy direction for the upcoming quarter.
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
Internal Bullish
Reached Swing EQ
INT Structure Pullback Phase
2.
Swing continuing bearish following the HTF Bearish Trend. Expectations is set for the Swing to stay bearish to fulfill the HTF targets.
3.
Nothing much changed since yesterday as we just tapping into a demand zone (FLIP) that may provide some bullish reaction.
INT Structure turned Bullish signaling a complex pullback phase with deep pullback that reached the Swing EQ and tapped into the Daily Supply.
Currently with INT Structure is Bullish we don't have a solid confirmation that the Swing PB is over and we will continue Bearish. Instead, INT structure could continue Bullish.
More Price development required from LTF in order to play the INT Structure PB or the INT structure Bullish continuation.
15m Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bullish
Internal Bullish
Long : Phase B (LP)
Short : Phase C (HP)
2.
Finally we are barely out from Friday NFP Range and price still ranging with clear direction.
With a Bearish iBOS we confirmed the 15m Swing Pullback.
Currently price tapped and formed Bullish Sub-Internal Structure that is facilitating the INT Pullback.
Not convinced much of Longs as per our position in the HTF (Tapped into Daily Supply), instead will follow the Bearish INT Structure and look for Shorts from 15m Supply that are well positioned within the Swing.
3.
15m/4H Demand zones for possible longs one reached.
EURUSD - 📈 => 📉Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
As per my last analysis (attached on the chart), EURUSD rejected our blue circle zone and traded higher.
What's next?
📈 EURUSD has been overall bearish long-term , trading within the falling wedge pattern in red.
Currently, EURUSD is approaching the upper bound of the wedge pattern.
Moreover, the green zone is a strong resistance.
🏹 Thus, the highlighted red circle is a strong area to look for sell setups as it is the intersection of the green resistance and upper red trendline.
📚 As per my trading style:
As #EURUSD approaches the red circle zone, I will be looking for bearish reversal setups (like a double top pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
EURUSD 8 May 2024 W19 - Intraday AnalysisThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 8 May 2024 W19 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:
Market Sentiment
4H Chart Analysis
15m Chart Analysis
Market Sentiment
Nothing changed since the start of the week and as per yesterday sentiment here, investors are waiting for a catalyst to have a clear policy direction for the upcoming quarter.
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
Internal Bullish
Reached Swing EQ
INT Structure Pullback Phase
2.
Swing continuing bearish following the HTF Bearish Trend. Expectations is set for the Swing to stay bearish to fulfill the HTF targets.
3.
Nothing much changed since yesterday as we just tapping into a demand zone (FLIP) that may provide some bullish reaction.
INT Structure turned Bullish signaling a complex pullback phase with deep pullback that reached the Swing EQ and tapped into the Daily Supply.
Currently with INT Structure is Bullish we don't have a solid confirmation that the Swing PB is over and we will continue Bearish. Instead, INT structure could continue Bullish.
More Price development required from LTF in order to play the INT Structure PB or the INT structure Bullish continuation.
15m Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bullish
Internal Bullish
Long : Phase B (LP)
Short : Phase C (HP)
2.
Finally we are barely out from Friday NFP Range.
With a Bearish iBOS we confirmed the 15m Swing Pullback.
Currently price tapped into a 4H Demand which could initiate the INT Structure PB.
Bullish CHoCH will be the first sign that the INT PB is starting.
Not convinced much of Longs as per our position in the HTF (Tapped into Daily Supply), instead will follow the Bearish INT Structure and look for Shorts from 15m Supply that are well positioned within the Swing.
3.
15m/4H Demand zones for possible longs one reached.
BTCUSDT.PThe market is in a downtrend. in case of sweeping liquidity and the closing above it, could set up a situation for a potential upward move to mitigate the1H : Ext OB. However, it's important to note that this approach is risky due to its countertrend nature
After reaching the '1H : Ext OB' , confirmed signals on both the 1-hour (1H) and 5-minute (5m) timeframes could present a high-potential opportunity to initiate a short position