AMPG Intermediate Term view Update 07Feb2024Intermediate Term expectations continue on course. Retracement into Bearish Weekly Swing leg Internal Liquidity underway (Swept first Internal Lower High Pivot on Tue 23Jan).
Liquidity
EURUSD 6 Feb 2024 W6 - Intraday Analysis - EU Retail SalesThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 6 Feb 2024 W6 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames:
4H
15m
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bullish
INT Bearish
OF Bearish
In Swing Discount
2.
Price made a bullish BOS and after a BOS we expect a pullback.
After mitigating the Weekly Supply zone, price started the Swing pullback phase after a bearish CHoCH.
Price reached the 4H/Daily demand zones as expected after breaking the range and formed a Bullish INT Structure iBOS.
This Bullish iBOS failed to continue Bullish and we changed to Bearish INT Structure which means that the Swing Pullback Phase is not over.
We are also within the 4H Swing Demand/Discount so keep in mind that at anytime the Swing Continuation could start.
More price development needed with the current PA.
3.
Bearish momentum still active with a Bearish iBOS.
With the current series of bearish INT Structures, there is a HP that the 4H Swing Low will go as there is no much demand zones and the current demand is in mitigation and every move up is just a sell opportunity.
After the iBOS we would expect a pullback. Price failed to close below the 4H Low which could be a sweep of LIQ. In order to confirm a Sweep, i need at least a Bullish CHoCH as reaction from the Swing Low otherwise we will take the Swing Low as per the HTF expectations.
I'll be waiting 15m to align bullish to play the 4H iBOS pullback if possible. Other wise waiting for better Short opportunity from the 4H Supply at the INT High.
Lets wait for the LTF to guide us.
15m Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
INT Bearish
Waiting Pullback Phase
2.
Swing is Bearish and we are currently in the bearish momentum after the break.
Price reached the 4H Swing Low and the Daily INT Low and failed to close below (Just wicked micro pips below it). Could be a sweep of LIQ or just mitigation and continuation bearish. No HTF POI mitigation yet.
From a structure prospective, We are expecting a Pullback for the 15m Swing and the 4H INT Structure.
I'll wait for the pullback phase after the 15m Bullish iBOS putting in consideration that there is a HP that we can create a Bearish 4H BOS and Daily iBOS. (Shorting the lows or after Break of Structure is not my edge)
Lets wait and see more price development.
3.
15m INT Structure is bearish and we are in the continuation after the Swing BOS.
4H Supply within this INT Structure is the only supply that could provide a Bearish continuation. But be mindful that we could start also the Swing Pullback at anytime.
AUDUSD possible short, AUD weakness.The AUDUSD market is showing signs of weakness (in favor of the USD) after NFP news on Friday. Thursday reversal in London (as shown in the hourly chart) was a clear manipulation move taking the buy side liquidity from the Asian session. The daily is showing a bearish bias, breaching recent swing lows. We also can see that the swing lows from 11/2 and 12/7, were breached.
The trade setup is to wait for a possible retracement towards the 0.618 or 0.786 Fib levels from the measurement of the impulse in the 1H after the NFP. Ideally, this setup will form either during the London or NY session for a possible move lower and continuation of the bearish bias. Initial target would be lows of Friday or lower low after a possible run of the liquidity below Friday's lows.
This is a trade idea, for information purposes only. Trade at your own risk. If you decide to follow this idea, position yourself following your risk management plan.
Why You Should Avoid Trading Standard Patterns: Deeper AnalysisTrading based on technical analysis is a popular way for traders to identify market opportunities. One of the most common methods of technical analysis is the use of chart patterns. These patterns are recognizable formations created by price movements on a chart.
Traders use these patterns to identify potential areas of support and resistance, as well as trend reversals. However, there are several reasons why you should avoid trading standard patterns:
1. Widespread Awareness and Anticipation:
Standard patterns are well-known and widely anticipated by market participants. This means that they are already priced in, making trading them a low-probability strategy.
2. Potential for False Signals:
The formation of a pattern on a chart does not guarantee the expected outcome. In fact, standard patterns can often lead to false breakouts and failed trades.
3. Difficulty in Trading Effectively:
Trading standard patterns effectively requires a high level of skill and experience. Without a deep understanding of market structure and price behavior, traders can easily fall victim to false signals and whipsaws.
Advantages of Trading Liquidity Patterns:
Liquidity patterns offer a more effective and reliable alternative to standard patterns. These patterns are based on the concept of market liquidity, which refers to the ease with which an asset can be bought or sold without impacting its price. By identifying areas of high and low liquidity, traders can gain an edge in the market.
In-depth Analysis of Popular Patterns:
1. Double Bottom:
The classic double bottom pattern is a bullish reversal pattern that forms when the price of an asset makes two consecutive lows at the same level, followed by a rally.
However, the standard double bottom pattern has a significant drawback: it leaves liquidity below the lows, which can lead to false breakouts and failed trades.
A more effective way to trade this pattern is to look for a lower low. This occurs when the price makes a new low below the previous two lows. This indicates that the market is absorbing all the sell liquidity and is ready to move higher.
2. Triangle:
A triangle is a consolidation pattern that forms when the price of an asset ranges between two converging trendlines.
Traders often look for breakout trades in triangles, but this can be risky.
False breakouts are a common occurrence in triangle patterns.
This is because market makers often manipulate the price to induce traders to break out of the pattern, only to reverse the price and trap them in losing trades.
A more effective way to trade triangles is to look for liquidity grabs. This occurs when the price moves outside of the triangle, only to quickly return back inside. This indicates that market makers are taking liquidity from the market and are preparing to move the price in the opposite direction.
Practical Tips for Trading Liquidity Patterns:
Always trade with the trend. Liquidity patterns are most effective when they are traded in the direction of the overall trend.
Use stop-loss orders to protect your downside. This will help to limit your losses if the trade does not go your way.
Be patient and wait for the right setup. Don't force trades and only take those that meet your criteria.
Additional Considerations:
Market context: It is important to consider the overall market context when trading liquidity patterns. For example, patterns are more likely to be successful in trending markets than in range-bound markets.
Risk management : Always use sound risk management principles when trading, regardless of the pattern you are using. This includes using stop-loss orders and position sizing appropriately.
False signals: It is important to be aware of the potential for false signals when trading liquidity patterns. Not all patterns will lead to successful trades, and it is important to be prepared for losses.
EURUSD 5 Feb 2024 W6 - Intraday Analysis - EU PMIThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 5 Feb 2024 W6 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames:
4H
15m
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bullish
INT Bearish
OF Bearish
In Swing Discount
2.
Price made a bullish BOS and after a BOS we expect a pullback.
After mitigating the Weekly Supply zone, price started the Swing pullback phase after a bearish CHoCH.
Price reached the 4H/Daily demand zones as expected after breaking the range and formed a Bullish INT Structure iBOS.
This Bullish iBOS failed to continue Bullish and we changed to Bearish INT Structure which means that the Swing Pullback Phase is not over.
We are also within the 4H Swing Demand/Discount so keep in mind that at anytime the Swing Continuation could start.
More price development needed with the current PA.
3.
Bearish momentum still active with a Bearish iBOS.
With the current series of bearish INT Structures, there is a HP that the 4H Swing Low will go as there is no much demand zones and the current demand is in mitigation and every move up is just a sell opportunity.
After the iBOS we would expect a pullback and the current CHoCH is the INT High. So either price engineer a new CHoCH or it will target the INT High (i Doubt we have catalyst for that this week).
I'll be waiting 15m to align bullish to play the 4H iBOS pullback if possible. Other wise waiting for better Short opportunity from the 4H Supply.
Lets wait for the LTF to guide us.
15m Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
INT Bearish
2.
Swing couldn't sustain Bullish after the Bullish BOS and turned Bearish with NFP news on last Friday.
After a BOS we expect a pullback but be mindful that HTF are looking to target the 4H Swing Low and Daily INT Low so there is a HP we will continue down.
But for me following the structure and expectations, I'll be looking for the Swing Pullback after a bullish iBOS. And most probably will play the Bearish move when we tap into a HTF POI.
3.
15m INT Structure is bearish and we are in the continuation after the Swing BOS.
Price could continue from here bearish to the 4H Swing Low.
Quantitative Support in the US1. Liquidity and Investments:
An increase in M2 typically means there is more liquidity in the economy, as consumers and businesses have more cash or cash-equivalents at their disposal. This excess liquidity can lead to increased investment in stocks, including those in the S&P 500, driving up stock prices.
2. Economic Expectations:
A growing money supply can signal that central banks (like the Federal Reserve in the United States) are implementing looser monetary policies, often in response to concerns about economic growth. Lower interest rates and other forms of monetary stimulus can encourage borrowing and investing, leading investors to buy stocks in anticipation of economic recovery or growth, which can push up stock market indices like the SPX.
3. Inflation Expectations:
Over the long term, increases in the money supply can lead to inflationary expectations. If investors believe that inflation will rise, they might choose to invest in assets like stocks, which are seen as a hedge against inflation, because companies can raise prices to maintain their revenues and profits in nominal terms. This shift can drive up stock prices, including those in the S&P 500.
4. Risk Appetite:
An expanding money supply can also affect investor sentiment and risk appetite. With more money available and potentially lower returns from traditional safe investments (like savings accounts or bonds, which might offer lower interest rates when the money supply is growing), investors may turn to the stock market in search of higher returns, driving up equity prices.
S&P can go higher, this depends on the FED
Golilocks continues.
The economy is not going to crash, why?
It's already happened. We had a GFC.
Go to university and do any relevant classes to macroeconomics. You will at some point discuss, or study the GFC. This is so we does not happen again.
Of-course nothing is going to go terrible during a US election year.
Now this does not stop black swan events...
$XOM Short Swing EarningsNYSE:XOM just recently had earnings
I'm looking at swinging puts tomorrow because the Jeanius Algo Suite (Indicator/Screener) gave me multiple sell confluences:
Rose through 2 untested highs (~$104.91), grabbing liquidity
Retested the level that price broke to create a Change of Character (CHOCH)
Tested a downtrend line
Broke and retested an uptrend line
In a long term and short term structural downtrend
The indicator automatically painted the lines/zones on the chart
MACRO MONDAY 32~The SLOOS~ Is Lending Increasing or decreasing?MACRO MONDAY 32 – The SLOOS
Released Monday 5th Feb 2024 (for Q4 2023)
Released quarterly, the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices (SLOOS) is a survey of up to 80 large domestic banks and 24 branches of international banks to gain insight into credit, lending standards and bank practices. The Federal Reserve issues and collates these voluntary surveys.
The surveys generally include 25 questions and a number of special questions about development in banking practices. They cover practices for the previous three months, but also deal with expectations for the coming quarter and year. While some queries are quantitative, most are qualitative.
The surveys have come to cover increasingly timely topics, for example, providing the Fed with insight into bank forbearance policies and trends in response to the 2020 economic crisis.
Let’s have a look at the culmination of the some of the more important data from the SLOOS in chart form
The Chart
The blue line on the chart plots the results of the SLOOS survey – specifically, the net percentage of polled banks reporting that they’ve tightened their lending standards to commercial and industrial customers.
I have combined the SLOOS Tightening Lending Standards on the chart with the Unemployment Rate. You can clearly see a pattern of the SLOOS leading the Unemployment Rate and also the broad correlation of their trends. Recessions are in grey.
The SLOOS Tightening Lending Standards
(blue line)
▫️ Lending standards tightened significantly prior to the onset of each of the last three recessions (See green lines and text on chart).
▫️ When lending conditions tightened by 54% or greater it coincided with the last four recessions. (Represented by the horizontal red dashed line on the chart and the red area at the top)
▫️ On two occasions the 54% level being breached would have been a pre-recession warning; prior to the 1990 recession and 2000 recession providing approx. 3 months advance warning.
▫️ When we breached the c.34% level in Jan 2008 it marked the beginning of that recession. We are currently at 33.9% (for Q3 2023) and were as high as 50% in the reading released in July (for Q2 2023). Above the 34% on the chart is the orange area, an area of increased recession risk but not guaranteed recession.
▫️ Interestingly, every recession ended close to when we exited back out below the 34% level. This makes the 34% level an incredibly useful level to watch for tomorrows release. If we break below the 34% level it would be a very good sign. We could speculate that it could be a sign of a soft landing being more probable and could suggest a soft recessionary period has already come and gone (based solely on this chart continuing on a downward trajectory under 34%). I emphasize “speculate”.
U.S. Unemployment Rate (Red Line)
▫️ I have included the U.S. Unemployment Rate in red as in the last three recessions you can see that the unemployment rate took a sudden turn up, just before recession. This is a real trigger warning for recession on the chart. Whilst we have had an uptick in recent months, it has not been to the same degree as these prior warning signals. These prior stark increases were an increases of approx. 0.8% over two to three quarters. Our current increase is not even half of this (3.4% to 3.7% from Jan 2023 to present, a 0.3% increase over 1 year). If we rise up to 4.2% or higher we can start getting a little concerned.
▫️ The Unemployment Rate either based or rose above 4.3% prior to the last three recessions onset. This is another important level to watch in conjunction with the 34% and 54% levels on the SLOOS. All these levels increase or decrease the probability of recession and should infer a more or less risk reductive strategy for markets.
In the above we covered the Net percentage of Banks Tightening Standards for Commercial and Industrial Loans to Large and mid-sized firms. The SLOOS provides a similar chart dataset for Tightening Standards for Small Firms, and another similar dataset for Consumer Loans and Credit Cards. I will share a chart in the comments that illustrates all three so that tomorrow we can update you with the new data released for all of them. You are now also better equipped to make your own judgement call based on the history and levels represented in the above chart, all of which is only a guide.
Remember all these charts are available on TradingView and you can press play and update yourself as to where we are in terms of zones or levels breached on the charts.
Thanks for coming along again
PUKA
Bitcoin is Going DOWN!!!Bitcoin trades just like any other asset class in the sense it seeks Liquidity and Imbalances from the highest to lowest time frames. Typically we gauge liquidity zones from the monthly and weekly time frames. These areas in the markets are our weekly and monthly target zones aka runs on liquidity. These liquidity zones tie in with filling 4 Hr, daily, and weekly imbalances. Once you get trend direction from the monthly you begin to tag your monthly, and weekly targets. We know our standard deviations are birthed from our Dealer Range. Always use the previous day's dealer range and standard deviations when trading Crypto. Typically price tags the 3rd or 4th standard deviations and reverses. Look for weekly and daily targets inside of your standard deviations. They are very precise targets down to the pipette. Always factor in the spread with bitcoin as it is typically very huge. Always trust your set up. Never over leverage. Have a awesome week of trading! - I AM MASTER JEDI & MENTOR at #SniperGang
EURUSD 5-9 Feb 2024 W6 Weekly AnalysisThis is my Weekly analysis on EURUSD for 5-9 Feb 2024 W6 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames:
Weekly
Daily
4H
Economic Events
Weekly Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
Internal Bearish
Reached Swing EQ
(Pro Swing + Pron Internal)
2.
After the iBOS we expected pullback, price tapped into Liq on the lift and a Weekly demand zone which provided a pullback and formed a bullish CHoCH confirming INT Low.
Price reached the INT Extreme and tapped the Weekly Supply Zone and we are currently targeting at least the CHoCH and then the Weak INT Low.
3.
With the Bearish INT Structure we have the confirmation that the Swing Pullback is over and we are currently in the Swing Continuation Phase.
Price had reached the Bearish INT Structure extreme and showed reaction from.
Still the OF is Bullish within the Pullback Phase and the Bearish CHoCH will be the first sign to confirm the Bearish continuation from the Weekly Supply.
Expectation now set to see price continuing bearish.
Daily Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
INT Bullish
Reached Extreme
2.
Within the Bearish Swing we are currently in the Swing pullback reached the Swing extreme area and mitigated a Weekly Supply zone (But didn't reach the Daily Supply) and started the INT Structure Pullback after the Bullish iBOS.
For the Bearish Swing to continue bearish, we want to see a Bearish iBOS to confirm that the Swing Pullback is over and we are in the Swing Continuation to target the Weak Swing Low.
But currently the INT Structure still Bullish so there is also a possibility that we can still continue up.
We still in the Daily Pullback Phase and price reached the last Daily demand zone. As Swing is Bearish, Expectations that there is a high probability that we will take the Strong INT low. On the Flip Side (Bullish) we could hold the current Demand/INT Low to target the Weak INT High.
Lets wait to see more price development and LTF to guide us.
3.
Price had mitigated the adjusted Supply zone.
OF is bearish in the INT structure pullback Phase and is so corrective in nature. (Supply in Control)
4.
Daily and Weekly demand zones for reactions once reached.
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bullish
INT Bearish
OF Bearish
In Swing Discount
2.
Price made a bullish BOS and after a BOS we expect a pullback.
After mitigating the Weekly Supply zone, price started the Swing pullback phase after a bearish CHoCH.
Price reached the 4H/Daily demand zones as expected after breaking the range and formed a Bullish INT Structure iBOS.
This Bullish iBOS failed to continue Bullish and we changed to Bearish INT Structure which means that the Swing Pullback Phase is not over.
We are also within the 4H Swing Demand/Discount so keep in mind that at anytime the Swing Continuation could start.
More price development needed with the current PA.
3.
Bearish momentum still active with a Bearish iBOS.
With the current series of bearish INT Structures, there is a HP that the 4H Swing Low will go as there is no much demand zones and the current demand is in mitigation and every move up is just a sell opportunity.
After the iBOS we would expect a pullback and the current CHoCH is the INT High. So either price engineer a new CHoCH or it will target the INT High (i Doubt we have catalyst for that this week).
I'll be waiting 15m to align bullish to play the 4H iBOS pullback if possible. Other wise waiting for better Short opportunity from the 4H Supply.
Lets wait for the LTF to guide us.
Economic Events for the Week
My 5 potential trades for this weekTrend is long term bullish but currently bearish.
We are close to hitting bearish trend line.
Falling wedge with recent double bottom.
Multiple FVG’s to be filled.
All indicative of an impending reversal to initial direction.
1) long @ 1.07884 if $ & downtrend $ is swept
2) long @ 1.07225 if 4h $ & bullish $ is swept
3) long @ 1.08553 if OB & trend line $ is broken
using OB as breaker block to be rejected.
4) short @ 1.08553 if OB is rejected
5) short @ 1.09328 if FVG & 4h $ is rejected
being mindful of rejection off possible
breaker block and bearish trend line for
indication of reversal
BTC: Long at Breakout or Sell at Breaker Block?Assessing two potential scenarios for BTC, my bias leans bullish. The recent closure of the CME gap and successful liquidity sweep above the gap contribute to this optimistic outlook.
However, a critical factor to consider is the breaker block, particularly as it aligns with a corrective wave level, creating confluence for the short side. Monitoring the market's response to this level is crucial, as a retracement might occur, possibly heading towards the 36k-32k range. Staying adaptable to evolving market dynamics is key in navigating these scenarios.
GBPUSD | Demand regain control for a short term buy I expect GBPUSD to rise to 1.27747.
a potential demand zone was created when 1.27473 was liquidated thus negate the supply zone.
EURUSD 2 Feb 2024 W5 - Intraday Analysis - NFP Day!This is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 2 Feb 2024 W5 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames:
4H
15m
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bullish
INT Bearish
OF Bearish
In Swing Discount
2.
Price made a bullish BOS and after a BOS we expect a pullback.
After mitigating the Weekly Supply zone, price started the Swing pullback phase after a bearish CHoCH.
Price reached the 4H/Daily demand zones as expected after breaking the range and formed a Bullish INT Structure iBOS.
This Bullish iBOS failed to continue Bullish and we changed to Bearish INT Structure which means that the Swing Pullback Phase is not over.
We are also within the 4H Swing Demand/Discount so keep in mind that at anytime the Swing Continuation could start.
More price development needed with the current PA.
3.
As the INT Structure turned Bearish, we resumed again the Swing Pullback which in my opinion going to target the Swing Low.
After iBOS we expected a Pullback, CHoCH is the first sign that the INT Structure Pullback is starting.
Price did the Pullback and failed after to break and close below the Weak INT Low. This leaded to target the High that failed to break the low.
Still the INT is bearish but in point #2 we are assuming that Bullish Swing Continuation could start at any time so this could be the one. Bullish iBOS will be a solid sign for that.
More Price development needed to assess better.
15m Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
INT Bullish
Swing Extreme
2.
Swing is Bearish after mitigating a HTF Supply.
After a BOS we expect a pullback, INT structure turned Bullish to facilitate the Swing Pullback where we reached the15m Swing Extreme and 4H Supply Zone.
INT Structure still bullish so there is HP to take out this Strong Swing High.
On the Flip side, a failure to create a Bullish BOS and we get a Bearish iBOS will indicate that the Swing Pullback is over and we could be starting the Pro Bearish Swing Move.
Today NFP so be cautious.
3.
15m/4H Demand zones for reaction when reached.
Kadena ($KDA) - Flush the lows and run it upKadena is prepping for a flush of the lows in my opinion, but what comes after is what I am after.
Watching for a flush soon, then my trigger is a reclaim of the range low above green and continued strength thereafter, not weakness.
A move back to the range eq is significant, this is a large range currently in a re-accumulation-like phase of the cycle for Kadena and lots of other Alts.
Long-term green zone looks like a buy, short term I would wait for a flush and take it to the range eq.
My thoughts for now.
Vatsik
EURUSD 1 Feb 2024 W5 - Intraday Analysis - EU CPI - US PMI/JobsThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 1 Feb 2024 W5 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames:
4H
15m
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bullish
INT Bearish
OF Bearish
In Swing Discount
2.
Price made a bullish BOS and after a BOS we expect a pullback.
After mitigating the Weekly Supply zone, price started the Swing pullback phase after a bearish CHoCH.
Price reached the 4H/Daily demand zones as expected after breaking the range and formed a Bullish INT Structure iBOS.
This Bullish iBOS failed to continue Bullish and we changed to Bearish INT Structure which means that the Swing Pullback Phase is not over.
We are also within the 4H Swing Demand/Discount so keep in mind that at anytime the Swing Continuation could start.
More price development needed with the current PA.
3.
As the INT Structure turned Bearish, we resumed again the Swing Pullback which in my opinion going to target the Swing Low.
After iBOS we expect a Pullback, CHoCH is the first sign that the INT Structure Pullback is starting.
Price made a ChoCH yesterday confirming the INT Low and a Sweep of Liq to continue the bearish INT Structure.
Currently we are going to take this INT Low and there is a high probability that the Swing Low is the target after.
15m Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
INT Bearish
2.
Swing is Bearish after mitigating a HTF Supply.
After a BOS we expect a pullback, INT structure turned Bullish to facilitate the Swing Pullback where we reached the EQ.
With the news yesterday price Swept Liq above the Strong Swing High and the 4H CHoCH to resume the move to the down side targeting the 15m Weak Swing Low.
Most probably this Swing Low will be broken.
3.
Currently price is in Bearish INT Structure and expectation that we will break the Swing Low.
Just be mindful that Shorts now are not preferred as we are at the end of the move.
Will wait to see if there is option for Pullback plays after the BOS or hold my hands this week for better opportunities next week.
GBPNZD,🔴Sell opportunity🔴(Read the caption)
As you can see, the price swept the liquidity that formed as a previous day's high and was rejected.
We can see the CHOCH formed in 15 minute chart and create the supply zone and FVG.
In addition, the price created the liquidity pool below the supply zone.
So we can expect the rejection from the supply zone.
Please pay attention, we need the LTF confirmation for entry.
💡Wait for the update!
🗓️31/01/2024
🔎 DYOR
💌It is my honor to share your comments with me💌
EURUSD 31 Jan 2024 W5 - Intraday Analysis - FOMC Day!This is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 31 Jan 2024 W5 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames:
4H
15m
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bullish
INT Bearish
OF Bearish
In Swing Discount
2.
Price made a bullish BOS and after a BOS we expect a pullback.
After mitigating the Weekly Supply zone, price started the Swing pullback phase after a bearish CHoCH.
Price reached the 4H/Daily demand zones as expected after breaking the range and formed a Bullish INT Structure iBOS.
This Bullish iBOS failed to continue Bullish and we changed to Bearish INT Structure which means that the Swing Pullback Phase is not over.
We are also within the 4H Swing Demand/Discount so keep in mind that at anytime the Swing Continuation could start.
More price development needed with the current PA.
3.
As the INT Structure turned Bearish, we resumed again the Swing Pullback which in my opinion going to target the Swing Low.
After iBOS we expect a Pullback, CHoCH is the first sign that the INT Structure Pullback is starting.
We mitigated the 4H Supply and price reacted from there. Currently we don't have a Bullish CHoCH to confirm the INT Structure Pullback started (It's not a must but it's currently my mechanical approach to define Pullbacks).
Price could continue down to create a new low and then the CHoCH position will be changed or Price will try again to create a Bullish CHoCH.
Waiting for more price development
15m Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
INT Bearish
Reached EQ
2.
Swing turned Bearish again after mitigating a HTF Supply.
After a BOS we expect a pullback, INT structure turned Bullish to facilitate the Swing Pullback where we reached the EQ.
Price reached and mitigated the 15m/4H Supply zones and INT structure turned bearish signaling the 15m Swing Pullback is finished and we are currently Pro Swing aligning with the Bearish Swing as expected.
Expectations is that we will target the Weak Swing Low.
3.
After INT Structure turned bearish (iBOS) we expect a pullback.
The 15m Supply zone within the INT Structure is the only zone that can provide Short opportunity after confirmation.
Be mindful that today there is heavy news for Germany, but the most waited news is the US ADP and FOMC/Powell Conference so volatility will be high.
Nq Long Potential MMBM expecting price to draw to weekly highs of 17793.00
Anticipating price to come into 4hr/1hr FVG
BAD TIME FOR ALT's - BTS IS TOO STRONGAlgorand (ALGO) and Bitcoin (BTC), two prominent cryptocurrencies, recently exhibited interesting price movements within horizontal accumulations, followed by manipulation maneuvers beneath the range. Despite similarities in their actions, the market reactions varied significantly. This article explores the comparative analysis of ALGO and BTC, highlighting their respective behaviors and offering insights into potential trading strategies.
🔄 Horizontal Accumulation and Liquidity Grab:
Both ALGO and BTC were trading within horizontal accumulation ranges, indicating a period of indecision and consolidation. In a notable parallel, both cryptocurrencies executed a manipulation maneuver by removing liquidity from the lower part of the range. This tactic involves triggering stop-loss orders and creating favorable conditions for potential price movements.
📉 ALGO's Limited Reaction:
Despite the liquidity grab, ALGO demonstrated a relatively muted response. The price exhibited minimal bullish momentum, and the overall market sentiment did not reflect a strong surge. This could be attributed to factors such as market participants' cautious approach or a subdued reaction to the manipulation.
🚀 BTC's Strong Reversal:
In contrast, Bitcoin showcased a robust response to the manipulation maneuver. Following the liquidity grab, BTC experienced a significant pump, indicating strong buying interest and a bullish reversal. This demonstrated the resilience of Bitcoin and its ability to recover swiftly from manipulation-induced fluctuations.
🔍 Focusing on Bitcoin Strength:
The divergent reactions of ALGO and BTC suggest that, at the current juncture, Bitcoin is exhibiting greater strength and responsiveness to market dynamics. Traders and investors may find it prudent to focus on Bitcoin trading opportunities while it continues to showcase robust performance.
💡 Trading Strategy:
Considering the strength displayed by Bitcoin, traders may prioritize BTC trades over ALGO at the moment. Monitoring key support and resistance levels, analyzing volume patterns, and adapting strategies to Bitcoin's dynamic movements can be essential for successful trading.
🔮 Future Outlook:
The comparative analysis highlights the importance of assessing individual cryptocurrency behaviors in response to market events. While ALGO may present opportunities in the future, the current focus on Bitcoin, given its strength, could prove beneficial. Market conditions evolve, and traders should remain adaptable to capitalize on potential opportunities as they arise. A careful observation of Bitcoin's performance can serve as a strategic guide in navigating the cryptocurrency landscape.
EURUSD 30 Jan 2024 W5 - Intraday Analysis - EU GDP / US JobsThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 30 Jan 2024 W5 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames:
4H
15m
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bullish
INT Bearish
OF Bearish
In Swing Discount
2.
Price made a bullish BOS and after a BOS we expect a pullback.
After mitigating the Weekly Supply zone, price started the Swing pullback phase after a bearish CHoCH.
Price reached the 4H/Daily demand zones as expected after breaking the range and formed a Bullish INT Structure iBOS.
This Bullish iBOS failed to continue Bullish and we changed to Bearish INT Structure which means that the Swing Pullback Phase is not over.
We are also within the 4H Swing Demand/Discount so keep in mind that at anytime the Swing Continuation could start.
More price development needed with the current PA.
3.
As the INT Structure turned Bearish, we resumed again the Swing Pullback which in my opinion going to target the Swing Low.
After iBOS we expect a Pullback, CHoCH is the first sign that the INT Structure Pullback is starting.
Will be waiting for 15m to align with the 4H request to start a pullback.
15m Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
INT Bullish
Reached EQ
2.
Swing turned Bearish again after mitigating a HTF Supply.
After a BOS we expect a pullback, INT structure turned Bullish to facilitate the Swing Pullback where we reached the EQ.
Expectation that we are going to target the 15m Weak Swing Low but be mindful that we are currently in Bullish INT Structure.
3.
We are currently in Pullback Phase of the Bullish INT Structure. But after the 4H Bearish iBOS the momentum is to the down side.
Shorts are the preferred option until the 15m Swing turns Bullish to facilitate the 4H INT Bearish Structure Pullback.
EURUSD 29 Jan 2024 W5 - Intraday AnalysisThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 29 Jan 2024 W5 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames:
4H
15m
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bullish
INT Bullish
OF Bullish
In Discount
2.
Price made a bullish BOS and after a BOS we expect a pullback.
After mitigating the Weekly Supply zone, price started the Swing pullback phase after a bearish CHoCH.
Price reached the Swing EQ/Discount, mitigating 4H demand zones and ranged.
Price reached the 4H/Daily demand zones as expected after breaking the range and formed a Bullish INT Structure iBOS.
This Bullish iBOS indicates that the 4H Swing Pullback had finished and we are starting the 4H Bullish Swing Continuation Phase to target the Weak 4H Swing High.
3.
Bullish INT Structure after mitigating the 4H/Daily demand Zones.
As we are starting the Swing Continuation Phase, this INT Structure Low is the last structure point to hold for the 4H Swing Continuation Phase.
If it failed, there is a high probability that we will target the 4H Swing Low.
15m Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
INT Bullish
Reached EQ
2.
Swing turned Bearish after failing at HTF Supply.
After a BOS we expect a pullback, INT structure turned Bullish to facilitate the Swing Pullback where we reached the EQ and mitigated the 4H Supply.
Expectation that we are going to target the 15m Weak Swing Low but be mindful that we are currently in Bullish INT Structure and the 4H Demand formed after sweeping the LIQ below the 4H Strong INT Low.
Wouldn't be much convinced to Short in a 4H Demand Zone. So waiting for more price development.
3.
We are currently in Pullback Phase of the Bullish INT Structure and mitigating the 4H Demand Zone.
With Swing is Bearish and INT Bullish and we are in Swing Discount, it makes it tough for me to prefer a trade. I'd prefer a new structure after the BOS down or iBOS up.
EURUSD 29-2 Feb 2024 W5 Weekly Analysis - EUR CPI - US FOMC/NFPThis is my Weekly analysis on EURUSD for 29-2 Feb 2024 W5 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames:
Weekly
Daily
4H
Economic Events
Weekly Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
Internal Bearish
Reached Swing EQ
INT Extreme
2.
After the iBOS we expected pullback, price tapped into Liq on the lift and a Weekly demand zone which provided a pullback and formed a bullish CHoCH confirming INT Low.
3.
With the Bearish INT Structure we have the confirmation that the Swing Pullback is over and we are currently in the Swing Continuation Phase.
Price had reached the Bearish INT Structure extreme and showed reaction from.
Still the OF is Bullish within the Pullback Phase and the Bearish CHoCH will be the first sign to confirm the Bearish continuation from the Weekly Supply.
Expectation now set to see price continuing bearish.
Daily Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
INT Bullish
Reached Extreme
2.
Within the Bearish Swing we are currently in, the Swing pullback reached the Swing extreme area and mitigated a Weekly Supply zone (But didn't reach the Daily Supply) and started the INT Structure Pullback after the Bullish iBOS.
For the Bearish Swing to continue bearish, we want to see a Bearish iBOS to confirm that the Swing Pullback is over and we are in the Swing Continuation to target the Weak Swing Low.
But currently the INT Structure still Bullish so there is also a possibility that we can still continue up.
We still in the Daily Pullback Phase and price reached the last Daily demand zone. As Swing is Bearish, Expectations that there is a high probability that we will take the Strong INT low. On the Flip Side (Bullish) we could hold the current Demand/INT Low to target the Weak INT High.
Lets wait to see more price development and LTF to guide us.
3.
Price had mitigated the adjusted Supply zone (Was mapping only the Inside Bar) that caused the bearish CHoCH and continued down.
Current PA is so corrective and doesn't have any momentum.
4.
Daily and Weekly demand zones for reactions once reached.
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bullish
INT Bullish
OF Bearish
In Discount
2.
Price made a bullish BOS and after a BOS we expect a pullback.
After mitigating the Weekly Supply zone, price started the Swing pullback phase after a bearish CHoCH.
Price reached the 4H/Daily demand zones as expected after breaking the range and formed a Bullish INT Structure iBOS.
This Bullish iBOS indicates that the 4H Swing Pullback had finished and we are starting the 4H Bullish Swing Continuation Phase to target the Weak 4H Swing High.
But be mindful that the OF is so bearish in the Swing Pullback Phase and Demand is not holding and we see momentum. And with the Daily Bearish Swing there is a high probability that we will continue down. So be cautious with the Bullish Structures as it could be only Fake-Out.
More price development needed with the current PA.
3.
Bullish INT Structure after mitigating the 4H/Daily demand Zones.
As we are starting the Swing Continuation Phase, this INT Structure Low is the last structure point to hold for the 4H Swing Continuation Phase.
We have seen that Price swept the LIQ below the Strong INT Low and created a Bullish CHoCH but still Supply in Control.
If the last demand created from the LIQ sweep failed and we confirmed a close below the INT Low, My expectations will be that the Daily Swing Continuation in Play and we will take the Current 4H Swing low and Daily INT Low.
This week is so volatile as we have EUR Zone GDP and CPI also USA FOMC and NFP. So be cautious this week.
Economic Events for the Week
