ETH/USD - Ascending Triangle and a Double TopETH/USD is in an Ascending Triangle Pattern. We also have what could be a Double Top as well.
Ascending Triangle Pattern = Potentially Bullish
Double Top = Potentially Bearish
Here is a closer look at this 1day chart. Note the Liquidity Void being filled up at the moment.
Here is a closer look at the RSI. Momentum is downwards at the moment but note the over extension of the RSI on the attached Bollinger Bands.
There could be interesting times ahead.
Liquidity
EURUSD 13 Dec 2023 Intraday Analysis - US PPI/FOMC DayThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 13 Dec 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames:
4H
15m
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bullish
INT Bearish
Reached EQ
2.
INT structure turned bearish to liquidate the INT Low (Liquidity above the Daily Demand) and mitigated the daily demand zone.
INT Structure is currently bearish, so we are still bearish and there is a high probability that we may break the Swing Low as per the Daily/Weekly Bearish Continuation.
On the other side, 4H/Daily Swings are bullish and we are at the extremes. If we are going to continue these bullish structure then at least we need to see Bullish iBOS on the 4H. We also could benefit from LTFs to show us early if that daily mitigation could develop to be a Swing Continuation on the 4H/Daily.
Waiting for LTF to show me more developments.
3.
Swing low and last demand for potential buys.
4.
Technically, we still bearish and potentially we can continue down. But looking on the current market fundamentals, Market is in indecision sentiment due to End of Year (December), Inflation Expectations and Rate Hikes/Cut. Volatility is the nature of December due to the lack of liquidity.
15m Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
Internal Bullish
Reached EQ
2.
Price failed to break the Strong Swing High and swept the liquidity above causing a bearish ChoCH.
We still in bearish Swing and looking on the bigger picture we are still in the same range for almost 2 weeks now.
Not much interested still in Shorting until we have a decent pullback to daily supply. From Intraday prospective, Shorts is the proper play following the 4H/15m Bearish Structure.
Will wait for more development if there will be opportunity for Longs confirmation after the 15m Swing / 4H internal turns Bullish.
3.
No Supply zones for Shorts that can be potential.
4.
Risky Demand zone for longs. Solid confirmation needed before longs.
$FET FetchAi Liquidity Zones My current thoughts on FET are that we sweep liquidity in green, unless the above supply level is confidently flipped. We have a rounding off top (3rd attempt to break this level) with weakness showing.
Liquidity, untapped, remains below in green if it cannot push past this resistance area soon.
Another great opportunity to accumulate for the long term if we get green imo.
V
EURUSD 12 Dec 2023 Intraday Analysis - US CPI DayThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 12 Dec 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames:
4H
15m
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bullish
INT Bearish
Reached EQ
2.
INT structure turned bearish to liquidate the INT Low (Liquidity above the Daily Demand) and mitigated the daily demand zone.
INT Structure is currently bearish, so we are still bearish and there is a high probability that we may break the Swing Low as per the Daily/Weekly Bearish Continuation.
On the other side, 4H/Daily Swings are bullish and we are at the extremes. If we are going to continue these bullish structure then at least we need to see Bullish iBOS on the 4H. We also could benefit from LTFs to show us early if that daily mitigation could develop to be a Swing Continuation on the 4H/Daily.
Waiting for LTF to show me more developments.
3.
Swing low and last demand for potential buys.
15m Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
Internal Bearish
Reached EQ
2.
Swing turned bearish after NFP and tapped into a Daily Demand Zone where we started the 15m Swing/INT Pullback.
Currently we are bearish in Structure on 15m and 4H. My expectations is that if we are going to continue down we need to respect the 15m Swing / 4H INT Highs and we can continue bearish.
If we invalidated the 15m Swing / 4H INT Highs then we are going to play longs for the Daily Structure.
3.
No Supply zones for Shorts that can be potential.
4.
No significant Demand zones to hold price
EURUSD 11 Dec 2023 Intraday AnalysisThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 11 Dec 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames:
4H
15m
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bullish
INT Bearish
Reached EQ
2.
INT structure turned bearish to liquidate the INT Low (Liquidity above the Daily Demand) and mitigated the daily demand zone.
INT Structure is currently bearish, so we are still bearish and there is a high probability that we may break the Swing Low as per the Daily/Weekly Bearish Continuation.
On the other side, 4H/Daily Swings are bullish and we are at the extremes. If we are going to continue these bullish structure then at least we need to see Bullish iBOS on the 4H. We also could benefit from LTFs to show us early if that daily mitigation could develop to be a Swing Continuation on the 4H/Daily.
Waiting for LTF to show me more developments.
3.
Swing low and last demand for potential buys.
15m Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
Internal Bearish
Reached EQ
2.
Swing turned bearish after NFP and tapped into a Daily Demand Zone where we started the 15m Swing/INT Pullback.
Currently we are bearish in Structure on 15m and 4H. My expectations is that if we are going to continue down we need to respect the 15m Swing / 4H INT Highs and we can continue bearish.
If we invalidated the 15m Swing / 4H INT Highs then we are going to play longs for the Daily Structure.
3.
No Supply zones for Shorts that can be potential.
4.
No significant Demand zones to hold price.
EURUSD 11 - 15 Dec 2023 Weekly Analysis - FOMC Week!This is my Weekly analysis on EURUSD for 11 - 15 Dec 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames:
Weekly
Daily
4H
Economic Events
Weekly Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
Internal Bearish
Reached Swing EQ
2.
After the iBOS we expected pullback, price tapped into Liq on the lift and a Weekly demand zone which provided a pullback and formed a bullish CHoCH confirming INT Low.
3.
Price had fully mitigated the weekly supply (FLIP Zone and swept the Liq above the zone by not fully closing the candle above. Expectations are set now that we are targeting the Weak INT Low following the Bearish INT Structure.
Price is approaching a weekly demand area which can provide a reaction.
4.
Extreme supply within the bearish INT structure with Liq below it. A potential zone located in the Swing premium for continuation down
Daily Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
INT Bullish
OF Bearish
Reached EQ
2.
After BOS we expect a pullback
OF turned bullish to facilitate the Swing pullback and we formed bullish iBOS to confirm the Swing Low and the pullback.
With that pullback we formed Weekly and Daily demand zones which are potential for longs after confirmation on LTFs.
3.
After the Bullish iBOS we are expecting a pullback. First sign of the pullback maybe starting is a CHoCH which price did and confirmed INT High.
With that pullback we had formed a Supply zone that can act as a potential zone to play the pullback phase.
Price reached a daily demand zone where we have seen a reaction from on Friday after NFP news.
The mitigation of this daily demand zone could be the start of the Bullish continuation of the Daily INT Structure. But be mindful that the Daily Swing is Bearish, Reached the EQ and mitigated Daily/Weekly Supply zones, So we may have finished the Swing pullback and we are in the Swing bearish continuation to target the Weak Swing Low.
Let's watch LTF to guide us.
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bullish
INT Bearish
Reached EQ
2.
INT structure turned bearish to liquidate the INT Low (Liquidity above the Daily Demand) and mitigated the daily demand zone.
INT Structure is currently bearish, so we are still bearish and there is a high probability that we may break the Swing Low as per the Daily/Weekly Bearish Continuation.
On the other side, 4H/Daily Swings are bullish and we are at the extremes. If we are going to continue these bullish structure then at least we need to see Bullish iBOS on the 4H. We also could benefit from LTFs to show us early if that daily mitigation could develop to be a Swing Continuation on the 4H/Daily.
Waiting for LTF to show me more developments.
3.
Swing low and last demand for potential buys.
Economic Events for the Week
EURUSD 8 Dec 2023 Intraday Analysis - NFP Day!This is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 8 Dec 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames:
4H
15m
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bullish
INT Bullish
Reached EQ
2.
INT structure turned bullish which is a sign that the Swing pullback my had finished and we could continue up following the Bullish Swing.
We didn't mitigate any HTF POI till now for this INT structure to hold. May be the daily range on the left could be the reason of the INT to turn bullish! We will see after.
Currently we are mitigating the 4H demand that caused the Bullish iBOS and as long we respect the INT Low the possibility of moving up from his is high.
Waiting for LTF to show me more developments.
3.
Swing low and last demand for potential buys.
15m Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bullish
Internal Bullish
Reached EQ
2.
Swing turned bullish after a series of bearish structures which indicates that the 4H Swing pullback may ended and we may continue the Bullish 4H Swing move.
Current bullish Swing structure is a sign of bullishness but looking on the left, we still in a range which is not convincing much and could be a a pause in the market before heading down again.
Away from that, as long i trust the structure and accept the outcome from it, i'll be looking for longs to continue that bullish Swing as long we don't break the Swing low and form again a bearish Structure.
3.
15m Demand within the 4H Demand which could provide opportunity for longs as long we respect the Swing Low.
EURUSD 7 Dec 2023 Intraday Analysis -EUR GDP / US Jobless ClaimsThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 7 Dec 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames:
4H
15m
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bullish
INT Bearish
Reached EQ
2.
Price had created a Bearish INT Structure and it could be targeting the 4H Demand within the Swing extreme.
Currently price is in Swing pullback phase and the Bullish continuation could start at anytime from the Swing Discount. It's preferred to mitigate a Demand zone to give more confidence.
Will be waiting for LTF (15m) to support the decision with bullish structure formation.
3.
Swing low and last demand for potential buys.
15m Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
Internal Bearish
2.
Price still in a series of bearish structures (Swing/Internal) as we didn't mitigate yet any HTF POI.
We formed Swing Low yesterday after a Bullish iBOS but it didn't hold for a pullback phase.
My expectations is price may continue down to a HTF POI and we can see after a change to a bullish structure to confirm that the 4H Swing pullback is over and we may continue the Bullish Swing.
Currently Shorts is the play with the current Bearish Swing from Supply zones that are well positioned in Premium.
For Longs, i'll wait for the mitigation of a HTF Demand zone or the 15m Swing/Internal turn bullish.
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Deciphering BLUR's Market Dynamics:
New Kid on the Block:
Recent Binance Listing: BLUR has recently entered the illustrious realm of Binance, gaining attention for its unique market tactics.
Sweep of Low – Market Mastery:
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Strategic Insights and Trading Considerations:
Market Caution:
Inherent Volatility: BLUR's market behavior suggests a level of volatility that demands caution.
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Analyzing the Patterns:
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Community Vigilance:
Stay Informed:
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EURUSD 6 Dec 2023 Intraday Analysis - EUR Retail Sales / US ADPThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 6 Dec 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames:
4H
15m
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bullish
INT Bearish
Reached EQ
2.
Swing low and last demand for potential buys.
3.
Price created a bearish iBOS which confirmed the Swing High and the Pullback started.
Price tapped into the Discount and we may start the Pullback for the bearish INT Structure.
Price could sweep the Liq. above the CHoCH and continue down. But be mindful that the Swing is Bullish and we could see the Swing bullish continuation at anytime.
There is no high probability demand that price can start the pullback from and the only one available currently at the Swing extreme. Due to that, better to see structure change on LTF before looking for Longs.
15m Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
Internal Bearish
2.
Swing structure turned bearish creating a BOS. After a BOS we expect a pullback.
INT structure is bearish which means we still in the bearish continuation until we have a Bullish iBOS. Also we didn't mitigate any HTF POI to initiate a pullback yet.
I'll be waiting for Bullish iBOS to play the 15m Swing pullback or wait for the 4H Bearish iBOS to confirm the 4H Swing Pullback started to play Shorts.
Currently the 15m INT is in a series of bearish structures so most probably we will continue bearish till we reach a HTF POI.
Market Maker sell model target weekend liquidity and NWOGPossible market maker sell model for today in the New York session. I would expect the price to seek liquidity below the weekend consolidation.
The context is based on the analysis of ETH1! from CME futures, where we can observe a breaker block and NWOG at discounted prices and an MKS on the 4-hour chart, so I would anticipate a retracement to that zone (Image attached below). We also have a volatility injection at 10 AM (NY time).
EURUSD 5 Dec 2023 Intraday AnalysisThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 5 Dec 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames:
4H
15m
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bullish
INT Bearish
Reached EQ
2.
Swing low and last demand for potential buys.
3.
Price created a bearish iBOS which confirmed the Swing High and the Pullback started.
Price tapped into the Discount and we may start the Pullback for the bearish INT Structure.
Price could sweep the Liq. above the CHoCH and continue down. But be mindful that the Swing is Bullish and we could see the Swing bullish continuation at anytime.
There is no high probability demand that price can start the pullback from and the only one available currently at the Swing extreme. Due to that, better to see structure change on LTF before looking for Longs.
15m Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
Internal Bearish
2.
Swing structure turned bearish creating a BOS. After a BOS we expect a pullback.
INT structure is bearish which means we still in the bearish continuation until we have a Bullish iBOS.
I'll be waiting for Bullish iBOS to play the 15m Swing pullback or wait for the 4H Bearish iBOS to confirm the 4H Swing Pullback started to play Shorts.
USDX Bullish Market Maker Model.High timeframe market maker buy model for the USDX. The first target is the weekly SIBI at 104.15.
I would like to see the price not respecting that key point to look for the buy stops of the 1st Distribution and the original consolidation, although I'm not 100% sure it will reach those levels.
I don't trade on high timeframes, but I will use the information to look for MMBM in WTI and MMSM in index and Euro futures.
XAUUSD BUY&SELL TradesHi guys.
I'm back with another gold analysis, Finally XAUUSD broke the all time high and has moved down. So I have two immediate areas to buy. First is 2049, and second is 2039. In terms of a sell trade, I believe area around 2085 is a potential sell for short term.
* Make sure you add your intuition into this idea and trade according to your own trading plan.*
Be honorable
TRADING FOUNDATION: WHY DOES PRICE MOVE (PART 1 - LIQUIDITY)WHY DOES PRICE MOVE IN THE FOREX MARKET?
A simple answer to this question is... price moves for 2 major reasons
To take liquidity
To fill imbalances or price inefficiencies
I will break this into two parts and discuss Liquidity first.
What is Liquidity in Forex Trading?
Liquidity is the presence of orders at specific prices in the market, ensuring that transactions can take place without disruptions. When traders talk about liquidity, they are usually referring to the resting orders in the market. These orders can be absorbed or targeted by banks and financial institutions (BFIs) to influence the patterns of price movement. Liquidity can be found throughout the market, although certain areas may have higher levels than others. The good news is that it is indeed possible to learn how to identify and recognize liquidity patterns.
Liquidity comprises a variety of orders that gather in the market, including limit orders, stop loss orders, and stop limit orders. These orders come into play when prices reach specific levels of supply or demand in the market. Understanding liquidity is essential in comprehending how prices move.
Why do you need to understand Liquidity?
Liquidity is crucial for predicting price movements. Analyzing liquidity, along with market structure, supply and demand, and order flow, provides insights into potential price directions. It's important to consider liquidity alongside trend analysis and supply and demand to understand market conditions effectively. Highly liquid markets can be manipulated by large banks or institutions, leading to liquidity shortages, price slippage, and poor trade execution. Recognizing liquidity pools during slow sideways price movements is key.
What are the main types of Liquidity in Forex trading?
1. Buy-side liquidity (see chart for example)
Buy-side liquidity refers to the accumulation of orders above a range or high, including buy-stop limits and stop losses placed by sellers and breakout traders. Banks and financial institutions (BFIs) may target these orders to fuel temporary or sustained bullish price movements.
Buy-side liquidity can be divided into 3
a. Relatively equal highs liquidity
b. Previous high liquidity
c. Trendline liquidity
a. Relatively equal highs: This is when the price fails to break a level within a minimum of two tries. When this happens, there is a high tendency that orders will be above that level i.e. stop-losses or buy-stop orders. Due to this, large institutions will target that level to liquidate their orders or fill new orders. see the example below.
b. Previous high: A previous high is the top of a level or range from which a retracement in price started. Every high in the market holds liquidity. Usually not as appealing at the relatively equal highs. see the example below.
c. Trendline: This liquidity setup is usually as appealing as the relatively equal highs as it provides enough liquidity in the market to liquidate orders of large funds or fill in more orders. Anytime you notice a buy-side trendline liquidity building up, expect that price will move radically fast towards it. see example below
2. Sell-side liquidity (see chart for example)
Sell-side liquidity refers to the collection of orders situated below a range or low, including sell-stop limits and stop losses placed by buyers and breakout traders. Banks and financial institutions (BFIs) can target these orders to generate temporary or sustained bearish price movements. Similar to buy-side liquidity, sell-side liquidity serves a crucial role in the market dynamics.
Sell-side liquidity can be divided into 3
a. Relatively equal lows liquidity
b. Previous low liquidity
c. Trendline liquidity
a. Relatively equal lows: This is when the price fails to break a level within a minimum of two tries. When this happens, there is a high tendency that orders will be below that level i.e. stop-losses or sell-stop orders. Due to this, large institutions will target that level to liquidate their orders or fill new orders. see the example below.
b. Previous low: A previous low is simply put at the top of a level or range from which a retracement in price started. Every low in the market holds liquidity. Usually not as appealing at the relatively equal lows. see the example below.
c. Trendline: This liquidity setup is usually as appealing as the relatively equal lows as it provides enough liquidity in the market to liquidate orders of large funds or fill in more orders. Anytime you notice a sell-side trendline liquidity building up, expect that price will move radically fast towards it. see example below
Note : This does not mean you should just trade based on where you see liquidity, you should also do a proper multi-timeframe analysis, and if your narrative aligns with where liquidity is resting, there is a higher chance for it to go there.
I will make a post on the Part 2 - Imbalances.
Ensure to follow so you see what it is and how to make good use of it.
Cheers,
Jabari
the Gopher swimming in significant liquidity pool since 17 November the Gopher has been trading in a parallel bearish channel failing to trade/close above and above it, with the top and bottom trendline of the channel acting also as dynamic support and resistance.
price has found itself in weekly liquidity pool made of significant levels - (i) weekly supply of proximal price of 146.700 now acting as demand on smaller timeframes (ii) weekly demand CP of proximal price of 146.400.
i forecast higher USDJPY prices because price has found support on the bottom trendline of channel and is reacting to liquidity pool with the bottom price of the liquidity pool being demand level which is currently the significant level in control of price.
i have bullish targets to 4HR previous demand of proximal price @ 148.900.
put together by : Pako Phutietsile ( @currencynerd )
EURUSD 4 Dec 2023 Intraday AnalysisThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 4 Dec 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames:
4H
15m
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bullish
INT Bullish
Reached EQ
2.
Swing low and last demand for potential buys.
3.
After the Bullish iBOS we expected a pullback. We created a CHOCH and price continued the pullback for the INT Bullish Structure.
The pullback pushed down and swept the Liq. below the Stron INT Low and reached the Swing EQ.
It's a tough call now! We have the 2 options valid (Buy / Sell) but we need to see more price development and confirmation to trigger.
Option 1 Buy: I'll be waiting to see if price will confirm the failure to close below the INT Low and it was a sweep of Liq. below strong low from the LTF Structure changing to bullish.
Option 2 Sell: I'll be waiting for the INT Structure to shift bearish which will confirm the Swing High and we can look now for shorts after the INT pullback. But be cautious that we already reached the Swing EQ and buyers will step in now.
Let's see what the LTFs will tell us and we can adopt accordingly while keeping our HTF analysis always in play.
15m Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
Internal Bearish
2.
Swing structure turned bearish creating a BOS. After a BOS we expect a pullback.
INT structure is bearish which means we still in the bearish continuation until we have a Bullish iBOS.
Price taped into the 15m and 4H Supply that caused the bearish BOS and till now holding.
I'll be waiting for Bullish iBOS to play the 15m Swing pullback or wait for the 4H Bearish iBOS to confirm the 4H Swing Pullback started to play Shorts.
EURUSD 4 - 8 Dec 2023 Weekly Analysis - NFP WeekThis is my Weekly analysis on EURUSD for 4 - 8 Dec 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames:
Weekly
Daily
4H
Economic Events
Weekly Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
Internal Bearish
Reached Swing EQ
2.
After the iBOS we expected pullback, price tapped into Liq on the lift and a Weekly demand zone which provided a pullback and formed a bullish CHoCH confirming INT Low.
3.
Price had fully mitigated the weekly supply (FLIP Zone and swept the Liq above the zone by not fully closing the candle above. Still it could be a sweep of liq if we started to see pushes to the down side and structure changes on TF lower than the Weekly TF.
Price could be targeting the Supply zone at the INT Structure High to continue bearish as long TFs lower supports that.
4.
Extreme supply within the bearish INT structure with Liq below it. A potential zone located in the Swing premium for continuation down
Daily Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
INT Bullish
OF Bullish
Reached EQ
2.
After BOS we expect a pullback
OF turned bullish to facilitate the Swing pullback and we formed bullish iBOS to confirm the Swing Low and the pullback.
With that pullback we formed Weekly and Daily demand zones which are potential for longs after confirmation on LTFs.
3.
After the Bullish iBOS we are expecting a pullback. First sign of the pullback maybe starting is a CHoCH which price did and confirmed INT High.
With that pullback we had formed a Supply zone that can act as a potential zone to play the pullback phase.
The bearish CHoCH on the Daily appearing to be a Liq. Sweep as we didn't close below it. So, be mindful that OF is in Strong bullish move and playing against it without confirmation will be rough.
Let's watch LTF to guide us.
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bullish
INT Bullish
Reached EQ
2.
Swing low and last demand for potential buys.
3.
After the Bullish iBOS we expected a pullback. We created a CHOCH and price continued the pullback for the INT Bullish Structure.
The pullback pushed down and swept the Liq. below the Stron INT Low and reached the Swing EQ.
It's a tough call now! We have the 2 options valid (Buy / Sell) but we need to see more price development and confirmation to trigger.
Option 1 Buy: I'll be waiting to see if price will confirm the failure to close below the INT Low and it was a sweep of Liq. below strong low from the LTF Structure changing to bullish.
Option 2 Sell: I'll be waiting for the INT Structure to shift bearish which will confirm the Swing High and we can look now for shorts after the INT pullback. But be cautious that we already reached the Swing EQ and buyers will step in now.
Let's see what the LTFs will tell us and we can adopt accordingly while keeping our HTF analysis always in play.
Economic Events for the Week
Gold (XAUUSD) weekly update 04-08.12Gold has reached an all-time high. I expect it to break and then fall, forming the second swing.
Macroeconomics
Last week's PCE reading showed lower inflation and instead of gold rising, it fell.
The FED is about to pause, or at least that is the expectation at the moment.
Unemployment rate is rising, which is bullish for gold.
It seems that the banks are only buying gold because they are looking at the big picture - risk of recession, global risk (last two wars), instability in the USA caused by high debt and high interest rates.
Top-Down Analysis
I see no point in analysing this section, as we get automatic updates for 9 time frames every day.
Benchmark
The commodity index is falling, but we see that gold is super bullish everywhere.
COT Reports
It seems that everyone is buying gold at the moment - banks, professional traders and, of course, us.
Gold vs Silver
Silver is bullish like gold, confirming the direction for now.
Volume Spread Analysis - Wyckoff patterns
The current rally is being confirmed by volume.
For now, the accumulation pattern is being respected.
Momentum
The price should fall soon. Momentum indicators show that the current price is overbought.
EURUSD 1 Dec 2023 Intraday Analysis - US PMI / Powell SpeaksThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 1 Dec 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames:
4H
15m
Before the analysis, i want to share update on my current short trade on EURUSD. The trade is currently active and secured by moving SL to BE.
My current target is the 15m Swing Low/4H INT Low/Daily CHoCH. My current understanding that we are bullish in structures (15m Swing/ 4H INT / Daily INT) and i should either close my current short or look to long. But as i planned the trade from the start targeting the Liquidity on the Daily i wouldn't change my plan within the trade unless something significant occur (15m INT Structure turns Bullish). By sticking to the plan, i can evaluate my trading analysis and planning to find out where i can improve my trades. In other words what you planed is what you'll get.
Currently there is a chance that price can reverse from here as we are at 15m / 4H Bullish structures extreme.
Trade 15m Chart:
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bullish
INT Bullish
2.
Swing low and last demand for potential buys.
3.
After the Bullish iBOS we expected a pullback. We created a CHOCH and price continued the pullback for the INT Bullish Structure.
Currently we are at the INT Discount/Extreme but there is high probability demand area to contain price from my point of view. Yes, Price could continue the bullish momentum and 4H INT Bullish continuation move. But i prefer to have a well defined Demand Zone to look for trades from.
There is also a pullback required from the 4H Swing which we didn't have it till now and the Daily Liquidity (INT Low on the 4H) could be the target for the daily to get Liquidity for more up side. That's why i don't prefer to trade from an area without seeing Liquidity taken.
Let's see what the LTFs will tell us and we can adopt accordingly while keeping our HTF analysis always in play.
15m Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bullish
Internal Bearish
In Discount / Extreme
2.
As internal Structure turned bearish yesterday. Price continuing bearish and reached the 15m Swing Extreme.
Our expectations that after this deep pullback and if we are going to stay bullish on the 15m Swing, Price could start the bullish 15m Swing continuation.
But the INT structure still bearish so no confirmation yet. there is a risky option that i can see is that the INT to INT Structure turned bullish which could be the first sign for bullish momentum coming after this deep swing pullback.
It's Friday and December starting which is not a preferred trading month. So i'll be cautious with the current price structure and wait for solid options.
3.
INT Structure is in bearish momentum after starting the pullback.
Yesterday EU CPI news was a catalyst for that deep pullback.