EURUSD 2 Nov 2023 Intraday AnalysisThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 2 Nov 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames:
4H
15m
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Bullish Swing
Bullish INT
2.
The Swing continuation moved stopped at the 4H Supply yesterday and created a fresh Supply zone after the bearish CHoCH.
As stated yesterday that If the low that started the Swing Continuation move failed to break the Swing high then there is a high probability that it will be targeted.
Buys still the theme within this swing but the liquidity formation above the extreme demand zone is maybe the target now to continue up which we did yesterday.
After sweeping this liquidity down there the Swing continuation is solid now for more upside and targeting the Swing High and more.
3.
4H Demand zone could hold the price to continue up after sweeping liquidity on the left.
15m Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bullish
Internal Bullish
2.
INT Structure turned bearish which allowed price to sweep the Liq from the 4H Structure low yesterday and turned back again to bullish after sweeping the liquidity.
Now 15m Swing and INT align with the 4H Swing and INT and it's a high probability to continue up again to target the 15m Swing High and above as long the INT Structure lows are respected and staying bullish.
3.
4H Demand zone which includes 15m Demand zones that can provide potential buys to continue bullish.
I don't think that price can pullback all the way down to the 15m demand which is a sign of weakness, instead i'm looking for breaks to the upside from here and continuation today.
Liquidity
#DXY more bullish outlookHello, everyone. I hope you're all having a great week.
Let's analyze the DXY chart and try to make some predictions for the upcoming week.
Last week, the price was rejected from the important low indicated on the chart and also established a new 4-hour high, as evident in the chart. Consequently, the market structure in the 4-hour time frame is now in alignment with the higher time frame, daily market structure, and they both exhibit a bullish trend.
Given this scenario, our primary interest lies in taking long positions in high-probability trading zones. These zones could be around the short-term low marked with an arrow or during a pullback to the broken short-term bearish trendline.
In the meantime, as we await the price to reach these levels, we will closely monitor the market. Once the price approaches these areas, we will be looking for confirmation signals before considering our trades.
EURUSD BUY AND SELL POSSIBILITIESHi guys, This time I'll be covering EURUSD. SO currently price has tapped into our supply area which is around 1.0674-1.0694 and is selling off. Should selling continue I would expect the price to decline to 1.0623 which is the broken resistance level. Then below our support level we have a demand area which has been tested once and it could be worth trying it for the second time. So make sure you have these two levels under observation and take appropriate action upon price reaching there.
Be honorable
EURUSD 1 Nov 2023 Intraday Analysis - ADP/FOMC DayThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 1 Nov 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames:
4H
15m
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Bullish Swing
Bearish INT
2.
The Swing continuation moved stopped at the 4H Supply yesterday and created a fresh Supply zone after the bearish CHoCH.
If the low that started the Swing Continuation move failed to break the Swing high then there is a high probability that it will be targeted.
Buys still the theme within this swing but the liquidity formation above the extreme demand zone is maybe the target now to continue up.
Breaking Swing Low will invalidate this Bullish structure and we will be in daily bearish continuation.
3.
4H Demand zone could hold the price to continue up but the Liq is below it so not a high probability zone.
4.
4H extreme demand is the last zone for price to mitigate if it failed at current price to continue up.
This is the last option for longs for the current bullish swing.
15m Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bullish
Internal Bearish
2.
INT Structure turned bearish after the iBOS and this 15m Flip Zone could provide an opportunity for Shorts.
Be mindful that the 15m/4H swings are Bullish and we are expecting to target the Swing Highs. But as price turned bearish aggressively yesterday, standing aside till INT structure allign with Swing will be my approach till end of the week.
3.
15m and 4H Demand zone that can facilitate the pullback for the bearish INT Structure.
EURUSD 31 Oct 2023 Intraday Analysis This is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 31 Oct 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames:
4H
15m
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Bullish Swing
Bullish INT
2.
Price made a Bullish Swing BOS and we expecting after a break of structure a Swing pullback and a CHoCH is the first sign that the Swing pullback maybe starting.
Price pulled back to almost to the swing extreme and we would expect the 4H swing low to hold and we will target the weak Swing High.
3.
4H Demand zone could hold the price to continue up but the Liq is below it so not a high probability zone.
4.
4H extreme demand is the last zone for price to mitigate if it failed at current price to continue up.
This is the last option for longs for the current bullish swing.
15m Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bullish
Internal Bullish
2.
After the 15m BOS, we are expecting a Swing pullback, with a bearish iBOS we confirmed the Swing High and the Swing pullback started.
We reached EQ and 4H demand for high probability bullish continuation.
Internal Structure turned bullish to conform the Swing pullback is over and we are going to continue bullish to target the weak swing high.
3.
15m and 4H Demand zone that can provide a potential continuation to the up side if it's going to hold.
#DXY Possible scenarioHello, traders. Let's take a look at the DXY chart and discuss the possible movements of this chart for the next couple of days.
As we know, the price recently broke below an important bullish channel for the first time since July 4th when this major bullish run began.
However, as you can see, it failed to break below the previous low, which has been identified as an important support level. Based on Dow theory, the bullish trend is still intact since we have not violated the most recent lower low.
So, we currently have two conflicting signals. One is bearish due to the breakdown of the long-term bullish channel, while the other is bullish because the price hasn't breached the last low.
Furthermore, following the rejection of the low, the price moved higher impulsively, suggesting that buyers are still active. This is another bullish indication. However, the formation of a descending triangle chart pattern, which is bearish in nature, provides a mixed signal.
For trading and as a personal opinion, the current price area may not be the best entry point into the market. Additionally, any upside breakout of the triangle chart pattern could potentially be a false breakout and may not be an optimal trading opportunity. However, if the price retraces lower to test the previous low and fails to break below it, we might consider taking a long position on the US dollar.
If you've found this analysis helpful, please take a moment to like, comment, or share your thoughts with me.
EURUSD 30 Oct 2023 Intraday Analysis This is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 30 Oct 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames:
4H
15m
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Bullish Swing
Bullish INT
2.
Price made a Bullish Swing BOS and we expecting after a break of structure a Swing pullback and a CHoCH is the first sign that the Swing pullback maybe starting.
Price pulled back to almost to the swing extreme and we would expect the 4H swing low to hold and we will target the weak Swing High.
3.
4H Demand zone could hold the price to continue up but the Liq is below it so not a high probability zone.
4.
4H extreme demand is the last zone for price to mitigate if it failed at current price to continue up.
This is the last option for longs for the current bullish swing.
15m Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bullish
Internal Bullish
2.
After the 15m BOS, we are expecting a Swing pullback, with a bearish iBOS we confirmed the Swing High and the Swing pullback started.
We reached EQ and 4H demand for high probability bullish continuation.
Internal Structure turned bullish to conform the Swing pullback is over and we are going to continue bullish to target the weak swing high.
3.
15m and 4H Demand zone that can provide a potential continuation to the up side if it's going to hold.
EURUSD 30 Oct - 3 Nov 2023 Weekly Analysis - FOMC/NFP WeekThis is my Weekly analysis on EURUSD for 30 Oct - 3 Nov 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames:
Weekly
Daily
4H
Economic Events
Weekly Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
Internal Bearish
Reached Swing EQ
2.
After the iBOS we expect pullback, price tapped into Liq and a demand zone which showed a nice reaction that the pullback of the internal bearish structure maybe starting but still the OF is bearish.
3.
Potential flip supply zone to continue the INT bearish structure and Swing bearish leg
But be mindful that the INT structure doesn't have IDM and the zone/CHoCH could be used as IDM and we will be in the Swing Discount.
4.
Extreme supply within the bearish INT structure with Liq below it. A potential zone located in the Swing premium for continuation down.
Daily Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
INT Bearish
2.
After BOS we expect a pullback
CHoCH will be the first sign of maybe pullback is starting, price did a CHoCH confirming INT Low formation.
OF still bearish after reaching the daily flip zone. Expectation is that we will continue the bearish OF but be mindful that the pullback will start at anytime.
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Bullish Swing
Bullish INT
2.
Price made a Bullish Swing BOS and we expecting after a break of structure a Swing pullback and a CHoCH is the first sign that the Swing pullback maybe starting.
Price pulled back to almost to the swing extreme and we would expect the 4H swing low to hold and we will target the weak Swing High.
3.
4H extreme demand is the last zone for price to mitigate if it failed at current price to continue up.
This is the last option for longs for the current bullish swing.
Economic Events for the Week
XAUUSD LONG AND SHORT SETUPHi Guys,
I'm going to update my analysis on gold. Yesterday after touching our demand level at 1964 price rallied up more than 200 PIPS which was absolutely amazing. Now today I'm back with new setups.
Area 1979 - 1977 is an fresh area which has not been touched yet so price could react to it and give us a good trade. If price passes through that next area would be 1974-1971 which has been tested once yesterday and has already proven itself.
if rallying up continues resistance level 2001 is gonna be the first level to monitor and following that we have 2010 -2022 as a H4 time frame supply level.
So currently, best course of action is to wait and see how price responds to our intended areas of supply and demand. I also will keep you updated of my thoughts on this analysis.
Be honorable
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When Fetch.ai "sweeps the low," it means that the project is actively targeting available sell side liquidity by making purchases at opportune moments when the price is at lower levels. This strategy creates an upward push, which can lead to increased demand and a subsequent price surge.
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EURUSD 26 Oct 2023 Intraday Analysis - Interent RateThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 26 Oct 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames:
4H
15m
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Bullish Swing
Bullish INT
2.
Price made a Bullish Swing BOS and we expecting after a break of structure a Swing pullback and a CHoCH is the first sign that the Swing pullback maybe starting.
Price still in the 4H pullback phase and reached another demand zone which could provide potential buys with LTF confirmation.
3.
Daily and 4H Supply zone that current price action is targeting and could provide reaction for shorts opportunity using Entry Model with LTF confirmation.
But me mindful that no confirmation for bullish move weakness and there is Liquidity above this supply zone price is targeting.
15m Chart Analysis
UPDATED 15m Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bullish
Internal Bearish
2.
After the 15m BOS, we are expecting a Swing pullback, with a bearish iBOS we confirmed the Swing High and the Swing pullback started.
We reached EQ and 4H demand for high probability bullish continuation. This will be confirmed once we have bullish iBOS.
GOLD Trading ScenarioHi guys, I'm back with another gold analysis. Price yesterday surged from the 1954 demand area(in last analysis) all the way to 1976 which exist a supply zone. Currently price has been under the 1976 supply area and has tested it multiple times already.
If you pay a close attention there is a hidden demand area "1970-1968" which is only evident in lower time frame and price has already consumed that too. So should price fall it could test 1954 area for the second time but bear in mind since the first movement has not made a new high 1954 area becomes too risky to trade and needs confirmation.
Above that we have 1964 area as a intermediary demand level which again I need to consult the lower time frame should I take a trade there.
Be honorable
Liquidity Pools EURUSDHi,
I can see at least two Liquidity Pools on Medium/Higher Time Frame for EURUSD,
and price is likely to seek these. The question is if it will go first below or first up. Instinctively, I usually want to trade upwards or the reversal, but since price short term is already downwards, and thus closer to the lower Liquidity Pool, then perhaps that is the wiser choice, to do a small short if anything.
But there are liquidity pools to the upside, which can give a great reward if it reaches there, and you have traded near these lows.
Have a great day in Jesus' name!
-ThomChris
NZDUSD LONG AND SHORT Scenario Hi guys.
This time I'll be looking into NZDUSD. The Currency has been rallying up since yesterday and today reached our supply area for the second time. Last reaction to the zone was considerably good and this time could same happen. In addition to the supply area we have the broken support which turned into resistance. So with these clues going short it's advisable. But later this afternoon it's going to be a news related to dollar which could impact our analysis so make sure you are monitoring price behavior.
Should price go down we have a broken resistance around 0.5836 which could support the selling off and lead to a reaction. Below it the demand area should also be closely monitored for a secure entry.
If price continues further up then multiple other supply areas could be potential short setups or exit point for long trades. Make sure you do your own assessment prior to taking any trades.
Be honorable
EURUSD 25 Oct 2023 Intraday Analysis This is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 25 Oct 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames:
4H
15m
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Bullish Swing
Bullish INT
2.
Price made a Bullish Swing BOS and we expecting after a break of structure a Swing pullback and a CHoCH is the first sign that the Swing pullback maybe starting.
as expected yesterday, we reached the 4H demand zone and we are expecting the bullish continuation.
The current 4H demand could be IDM after the Swing BOS but if we have LTF entry model i'd say it worth a shot.
3.
Daily and 4H Supply zone that current price action is targeting and could provide reaction for shorts opportunity using Entry Model with LTF confirmation.
But me mindful that no confirmation for bullish move weakness and there is Liquidity above this supply zone price is targeting.
15m Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bullish
Internal Bullish
2.
After the 15m BOS, we are expecting a Swing pullback, with a bearish iBOS we confirmed the Swing High and the Swing pullback started.
We reached EQ and 4H demand for high probability bullish continuation. This will be confirmed once we have bullish iBOS.
EURUSD 24 Oct 2023 Intraday AnalysisThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 24 Oct 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames:
4H
15m
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Bullish Swing
Bullish INT
2.
Price made a Bullish Swing BOS and we expecting after a break of structure a Swing pullback and a CHoCH is the first sign that the Swing pullback maybe starting.
I'd prefer buys from demand zones instead of playing the pullbacks as price is currently bullish after being for a long period bearish.
Demand zones within the current bullish Swing will provide opportunities for buys.
3.
Daily and 4H Supply zone that current price action is targeting and could provide reaction for shorts opportunity using Entry Model with LTF confirmation.
But me mindful that no confirmation for bullish move weakness and there is Liquidity above this supply zone price is targeting.
15m Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bullish
Internal Bullish
2.
After the 15m BOS, we are expecting a Swing pullback, with a bearish iBOS we can confirm the Swing High and the Swing pullback started.
Currently price is within the Daily and 4H Supply zone. So be mindful that we could start he pullback from this zones. Confirmation with iBOS will be the first sign.
#GBPCAD selling opportunityHello, traders and friends.
Let's analyze the GBPCAD chart, where we believe there might be a compelling selling opportunity.
In the Daily timeframe, you can see that the price has already broken the market structure to the downside. Since the low formed on September 28th, we've been in what we believe is a bullish corrective phase. Consequently, we are now interested in a selling position.
Switching to the 4-hour timeframe, we notice a double top formation that resulted in a lower low, indicating the possibility of bearish continuation, aligning with our higher time frame daily trend. Following this, the price has been moving upwards in a bullish corrective manner, forming a short-term rising channel. Last week, this channel also broke to the downside.
In our view, this recent bullish movement resembles a liquidity-taking activity, and we are keen to observe any rejections from the level marked by the arrow on the chart, with the intent to consider selling.
Additionally, we have identified several resistance factors within a small zone, including the 4-hour and daily timeframe 200EMA, a supply area in the 4-hour timeframe, and the previous high where many traders have placed their stop-loss orders just above it. This presents an opportunity for banks to potentially extract liquidity.
If you have found this analysis helpful, please take a moment to leave a like and a comment or share your idea with me.
FANTOM BULLISH SETUP🚀🚀🚀The Liquidity Abyss:
At the lower price levels, FANTOM (FTM) presents a peculiar scenario: a deep well of liquidity that seems resistant to being outmatched. This situation can be seen as the result of strategic market dynamics and could pave the way for a promising uptrend. 🌊🚀
Imbalance as a Catalyst:
The key to unlocking the bullish potential lies in mastering the weekly imbalance at the $0.5 level. An imbalance refers to a situation where a significant excess of either buy or sell orders accumulates at a specific price point. Breaking through this imbalance can trigger substantial price movements. 📊🌕
Trading Strategy:
Monitor Weekly Imbalance: Keep a close eye on the weekly imbalance at the $0.5 level. A successful conquest can be a defining moment for FANTOM's price.
Risk Management: Implement solid risk management strategies to protect your investments in the event of unexpected price movements.
Fundamental Awareness: Stay updated on FANTOM's fundamentals and market news that may influence its trajectory.
Conclusion:
FANTOM's journey reflects the intricate dance of liquidity and imbalances in the cryptocurrency market. The promise of a bullish surge, driven by a well-timed strategic move, is an enticing prospect.
Remember, the crypto market is rife with complexities, and the potential for manipulation always exists. But, with a keen eye, a well-thought-out strategy, and a cautious approach, you can navigate these waters effectively.
The liquidity abyss might just be the starting point for a remarkable journey ahead.
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EURUSD 23 Oct 2023 Intraday AnalysisThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 23 Oct 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames:
4H
15m
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Bullish Swing
Bearish INT
2.
INT Low is confirmed after a fractal CHoCH and we are now in the INT Bearish structure pullback phase.
Demand is holding and Supply is failing which means that the INT Pullback is still active and we may reach the INT Extreme Supply zone. But be mindful that the swing is bullish and we maybe targeting the Weak Swing high.
3.
Price made a Bullish Swing BOS and we expecting after a break of structure a Swing pullback
As price turned bearish, and reached EQ, our expectations now that Demand zones in Discount will provide a good opportunity for longs. And current PA is showing that demand zones are holding well and we are targeting the Weak Swing High.
4.
Daily and 4H Supply zone that current price action is targeting and could provide reaction for shorts opportunity using Entry Model with LTF confirmation
15m Char Analysis
1.
Swing Bullish
Internal Bullish
Sub Internal Bullish
2.
After the 15m BOS, we are expecting a Swing pullback which already confirmed by the Bearish iBOS.
INT turned bullish to confirm the 15m Swing pullback is over and we are in Pro Swing continuation to target the 15m Weak Swing High.
After the recent iBOS, we are expecting a pullback and the INT low should hold to continue the Pro Swing upside move.
3.
INT extreme demand for better longs after confirmation.
Trading sessions liquidity huntLiquidity serves as the driving force behind all markets. The fundamental driver of any price shift involves the creation and aggregation of liquidity, with the objective of accumulating or distributing positions among market participants.
Accumulating positions necessitates counter liquidity to fulfill orders and initiate positions in the desired volume. Liquidity is therefore established within specific price ranges, with the intention of later manipulating it toward the accumulation of counter liquidity, ultimately achieving the goals of order fulfillment.
The bulk of liquidity, including stop orders and liquidations, tends to congregate around technical and psychological support/resistance levels, which can be observed retrospectively through the analysis of clusters and volume profiles.
Engaging in trading based on a one-time reaction, characterized by a substantial cluster forming during the breach of a particular price level, can lead to premature entry and potential losses, driven by inaccurate expectations of either a price breakthrough or deviation from calculated reference points
- An approach that leans towards caution, involving the selection of a trading setup once liquidity has been obtained from the previous trading session's highs/lows within the prevailing trend. This process is carried out while ensuring alignment between higher and lower timeframes.
- The primary objective is capital preservation, which is accomplished by minimizing risk to the range of 0.5-1% per trade and adjusting open positions to the break-even point after confirming the trend's structure.
- The strategy opts for an entry technique that boasts a high mathematical expectation of success.
- Fresh positions are initiated exclusively during periods of elevated market volatility, particularly during the optimal trade time (OTT) sessions in London and New York.
The focus is directed towards trading setups featuring risk:reward ratios ranging from 1:3 to 1:10.
Given the dynamics of market participants accumulating and distributing their positions during trading sessions, it's reasonable to assert that liquidity forms outside the fluctuations of these sessions. This liquidity is typified by stop orders and position liquidation within the scope of a micro-trend.
Consequently, it can be inferred that the commencement of the subsequent session will involve manipulation. The aim of this manipulation is to interact with such liquidity to amass positions in the opposite direction. Coupled with heightened volatility during the session's commencement, this provides opportunities to initiate positions before the impending price movement.
The primary criterion for entering a position will be the disruption of the existing structure following the capture of liquidity. Additional factors might encompass corrective momentum, liquidity in the opposing direction acting as an attraction for distributing accumulated positions during manipulation, and the formation of trading ranges with deviations, among others.
Entry into a position occurs on a lower time frame, emanating from an untested supply/demand zone. An additional aspect to consider is the presence of local liquidity before reaching the entry point.
Market Update - October 20th
False ETF news gives bitcoin a boost: Crypto markets were frenzied on Tuesday after Cointelegraph posted an unconfirmed tweet that the SEC had approved a spot bitcoin ETF. Bitcoin prices jumped over $2,000 USD in minutes before the news was deemed false.
GBTC discount to NAV continues to tighten: The discount between shares of Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) and the net asset value of the fund is at its lowest level in almost two years. After starting the year at a nearly 50% discount, GBTC’s discount has moved to ~13%, reflecting increased expectations that a bitcoin spot ETF will be approved in the near future.
Uniswap introduces 0.15$ swap fee: The move was described as an effort to “sustainably fund operations.” UNI is trading about even over the past seven days following the news.
The European Central Bank moves closer to a digital euro: The bloc’s central bank announced that it had moved from the investigation phase to the preparation phase of its digital euro project. ECB president Christine Lagarde tweeted that they “envisage a digital euro as a digital form of cash that can be used for all digital payments.”
Treasury yields continue upward trajectory, and Powell sees continued strength in the US economy: US treasury yields have continued to put pressure on equities, with the 10-year treasury touching 4.98% for the first time since 2007. Fed Chair Jerome Powell suggested that the continued strength of the US economy may warrant further tightening, but didn’t foreshadow an immediate policy shift.
🏖️ Topic of the Week: Liquidity Pools
⏭️ Read more here