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Pure Price Action Top Down Analysis of EURUSD2023 saw EU create a bullish opening range in H1, and H2 2023 opened only to raid stop orders from early trading that year before expanding to the upside. This PA created a bullish range which was retraced to the demand zone left in the wake of that previous expansion in April 2024, leaving behind what I suppose should be the low of the year. The Fiber has since continued bullish but appears to be stalling now in order to gather further internal bullish liquidity (SSL) to garner enough momentum for the move towards the BSL from 2022. Anticipation here is to capitalize on the bullish continuation towards the liquidity above the current dealing range but we are also aware of internal levels price might bounce from before that reversal happens. As EU approaches the nearest demand, we anticipate it could find support there for a retracement of the recent selloff experienced which potentially can be a decent opportunity to go long momentarily. Ultimately, the lower demand zone below the SSL(1.071) is where we expect to see major longs come in. Feel free to leave comments, reviews and criticisms, we look forward to building a very strong community of price action wizards with you all. GLGT, LloydFx
Long
by LloydFX
3
Probabilities Powering BTCUSD TradesUtilizing probabilities based on historical data is a cornerstone of my bullish strategy for BTCUSD. Here’s why I believe this approach is not only effective but essential for positioning long trades successfully. Understanding the Importance of Probabilities Probabilities in Trading Trading is inherently uncertain, and relying on probabilities allows traders to make informed decisions rather than guesses. By analyzing historical price movements and patterns, we can identify trends that have previously led to upward or downward movements. This statistical approach helps mitigate risks associated with emotional decision-making. Historical Data as a Guide Historical data provides a wealth of information about how BTCUSD has reacted under various market conditions. By employing a mechanical trading strategy that incorporates these indicators, I can increase my chances of entering profitable trades. Mechanical Trading Strategy What is a Mechanical Trading Strategy? A mechanical trading strategy is a systematic approach that uses predefined rules based on historical data to make trading decisions. This method eliminates emotional bias and ensures consistency in trade execution. Benefits of a Mechanical Approach 1. Consistency: Adhering to a mechanical strategy means that trades are executed based on data rather than emotions. 2. Backtesting: Historical data allows for backtesting strategies to see how they would have performed in the past, providing confidence in their potential effectiveness. 3. Risk Management: By employing probabilities, I can better manage risk through calculated position sizing and stop-loss orders. Current Market Context In the current market environment, BTCUSD shows signs of bullish momentum. The formation of higher lows indicates strength, and historical patterns suggest that we may be at the beginning of another significant upward trend. By leveraging probabilities derived from past performance, I am positioning myself to capitalize on this potential movement. Conclusion In summary, utilizing probabilities based on historical data through a mechanical trading strategy equips me with a robust framework for entering long positions in BTCUSD. This approach not only enhances my decision-making process but also aligns with my overall bullish bias. As we navigate the complexities of the crypto market, relying on data-driven strategies will be crucial for achieving success in our trades. 1D: 6H:
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by Jasminex1x2
1
USOIL: Bullish Fundamentals and 61.60% Probability for LongsKey Fundamentals - Decreased OPEC Exports: Recent reports indicate a decline in crude oil exports from OPEC and Russia, tightening the market as refinery runs ramp up for seasonal demand. This reduction in supply is likely to exert upward pressure on prices2. - Geopolitical Tensions: Ongoing geopolitical risks, particularly in the Middle East and Ukraine, continue to add a risk premium to oil prices. Traders are increasingly factoring these uncertainties into their market strategies2. - Rising Demand: With the U.S. economy showing signs of recovery and better-than-expected market fundamentals, demand for oil is anticipated to rise, further supporting higher prices12. - Technical Indicators: Current market sentiment shows USOIL trading above its pivot point of $74.80, with support levels around $74.00. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 56.16, indicating a healthy trend without being overbought1. I'm employing a probability-based strategy to position myself for long trades in USOIL. By incorporating these fundamentals and probability analysis into my trading approach, I aim to leverage the current bullish sentiment in USOIL effectively. 12M: 2W: Hourly TFs:
TVC:USOILLong
by Jasminex1x2
Crude Oil (CL1!): Why We’re Still Expecting Lower LowsAt the end of last week, we fine-tuned our Crude Oil outlook, and we are still expecting lower lows to take out the sell-side liquidity below. Our limit order at $63.23 remains valid, even after last week’s pump, which was driven primarily by rising tensions and the ongoing war in the Middle East. Oil gained 13% over five sessions following Iran’s attack, as traders feared Israel’s response might target Iran’s oil infrastructure, potentially cutting into the country’s 1.7 million barrels per day of exports. There are also concerns that a broader war in the oil-rich Persian Gulf could threaten nearly a third of global oil output. However, the geopolitical risk premium may be fading due to Israel’s delayed response. The geopolitical risk premium has an unclear and unpredictable expiration. When that moment comes and is not supported by real, fundamental factors—such as a substantial supply shortage due to the conflict—the upward movement in oil prices will not be sustainable. The longer this takes, the more the price increase will slow and potentially reverse, which is exactly what we are starting to see in the chart. While Crude Oil respected the 61.8% Fibonacci level almost perfectly, it found stronger resistance at the POC just above that level. Given the bearish RSI divergence, we continue to expect Oil to move lower, provided the conflict in the Middle East does not escalate further.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by freeguy_by_wmc
NZDUSD: Bullish Sentiment Backed by Math and History!Why Use Probabilities? In trading, probabilities help us make informed decisions based on mathematical rules and historical data. By analyzing past price movements and market behavior, we can identify patterns that suggest potential future outcomes. This approach allows us to assess the probability of reaching Take Profit Levels. Utilizing probabilities means I'm not just guessing; I'm relying on statistical evidence to position myself effectively in the market. This strategy helps manage risk and increases confidence in my trades, making it easier to navigate the uncertainties of forex trading. Let's dive in: 12M: 2W: 6H:
Long
by Jasminex1x2
1
LIQUIDITY CONCEPT MODULEToday, I’m focusing on identifying potential buying opportunities in this trade. I'm analyzing market trends, recent price movements, and key support levels to determine the best entry point. I'm particularly interested in signs of bullish momentum, such as increased volume or positive news catalysts that could drive the price higher. By keeping a close eye on technical indicators and market sentiment, I'm aiming to position myself strategically for a favorable trade outcome. So wait and watch when price enter into our zone and which trade market will give to us. Always use proper money management and R:R ratio. Always use stoploss for your trade. # USDJPY 4H Technical Analyze Expected Move.
Long
by TradeTacticsreal
2
payo are you gonna correct?after the great boom payo brought us some great profits. tbh i havent closed anything and i am still bullish on payo. payo accumulation and bingbongdingdong has been formed for 3 years as of this moment we are attempting to turn previous critical resistance into support. 2 scenerios according to wykoff theory. 1. correction then big money needs to defend its positions and at a reasonable price. fundementally that could be previous value area high (vah upper white line) because we need to create a new value range it would only make sense to turn vah to the new point of control (poc) or the new value area low (where price is traded the most e.g mid range val bottom area) another point to consider for the correction is the gap, so previous point of control to turn value area low or a sweep to that level would provide 4 things first it will close the gap and get rid of that imbalance. 2nd it will shake off weak hands and get rid of breakout traders when it grabs the single print 3rd it will provide a decent price for big money to enter at.. liquidity liquidity liqduidity. 4th provide the oprotunity for hedge shorting and basically thats more fuel to the upside when said shorts close. (so basically proffesionals get paid to pump the market for free) 2. leave everyone behind everyone whos waiting for the correction. that scenerio is less likely to anticipate, depends more on the company preformance and has less upside for big money that wants to accumulate low and provide big gains. i believe the first scenerio is more likely that the other one. the teal circles on the green lines are where i am looking to see reactions for swing fail patterns and adding to my positions luckily i already have an open position on payo for quite a while now, so im chilling.
NASDAQ:PAYOLong
by Captainobvious5454
1
im still bullishlast daily deviated from my trendline. to me that could be a swing fail and a shakeout to shake weak hands. reasons to consider: there is CPI data today and on 10/10 theres the tesla robot event a big fail could prove to be a priced in scenerio and the start of the nuke today with the following nuke tomorrow. for me i am a big believer of tesla so im bullish for me i may have another buy oprotunity on the vola vola today. as for the pattern in question we have a 48% on the cup depth 32% on the handle depth 44% on the parallel channel that is still part of the handle.. make of it what you will. i dont believe tesla will break out before the 10/10 but will swingfail the down level even (especially) on bullish cpi data (if anyone knows how hedge funds like to operate). there are bad lows at our current level and at 226 (which is also previous resistance) a sweep would be an amazing bullish retest that may or may not fail but the oprotunity is there and it all depends on how aggressive you'd like to trade or invest. Trendlines are current value ranges The upper teal drawings are potential double top that has formed and if we reject a potential double bottom (rsi will print an rsi div on 30 mins and may potentially swing up to the upper part of the channel causing an overbought on 4hours and daily) Vwap will confluence with the 100 daily ema that could potentially be a good entry but there's also the potential of the 150 and 200 bullish retest even though in my opinion that would ruin the cup and handle entirely although the liquidity idea would stay the same i'd be sad to see the pattern go. if we dont swing fail the bullish retest i will look to swing fail the lower trendline for another liquidity pool grab which is also the yearly value area poc. if all fails and we go bearish on tesla i will trade the consolation prize from valow to vahigh (a lower high and on the higher timeframe and a full rotation play) the bullish idea is if tesla preforms and the vah turns into the new poc/val and said new value range would be between current to 400-500 i hope i made enough sense and that my ideas are interesting for you. good luck to everyone.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by Captainobvious5454
Fundamentals Favoring a Bullish USDJPY:What Traders Need to KnowIn today's trading environment, the USD/JPY currency pair presents a bullish opportunity. Here are some key fundamentals that support this bias, along with an explanation of utilizing probabilities for positioning long trades. Key Fundamentals Supporting a Bullish Bias on USD/JPY 1. Bank of Japan's (BoJ) Monetary Policy: The BoJ has maintained its accommodative monetary policy, refraining from committing to predefined rate hikes for the remainder of the year. This stance is likely to weaken the Japanese Yen against the U.S. Dollar as traders anticipate continued divergence in monetary policy between the Fed and the BoJ. 2. U.S. Economic Growth: Recent data indicates a pickup in U.S. economic growth without significant inflationary pressures. This environment supports a stronger U.S. Dollar as it suggests that the Federal Reserve may not need to cut rates aggressively, contrary to some market expectations. 3. Market Sentiment: The overall sentiment in the forex market is leaning towards a bullish outlook for the U.S. Dollar, particularly against currencies like the Yen, which is under pressure due to Japan's economic conditions and the BoJ's policies. Utilizing Probabilities for Long Positions in USD/JPY When trading, I prioritize using probabilities to enhance my decision-making process. In conclusion, by focusing on probabilities and key fundamental indicators, I am strategically positioning myself for potential long trades in USD/JPY. This method not only enhances my trading confidence but also provides a structured approach to navigating market volatility effectively. Let's dive into my comprehensive top-down analysis together: 12M: 2W: 1H:
Long
by Jasminex1x2
XRPUSD: Bullish Setup AheadAs I prepare to share my bullish trade idea for XRPUSD on TradingView, several key global fundamentals align with my positive outlook. Here are a few significant factors to consider: 1. Regulatory Clarity: Recent developments in cryptocurrency regulation, particularly favorable rulings for Ripple Labs, have boosted market confidence. This clarity is essential for institutional investment and long-term growth in the crypto space. 2. Market Sentiment: The overall sentiment in the cryptocurrency market has shifted positively, with many traders anticipating a bullish trend. Indicators such as the MACD and Stochastic Oscillator suggest potential upward momentum, reflecting a growing interest in XRP as a viable investment option. 3. Technical Analysis: Current technical indicators show that XRP is poised for significant moves. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in a neutral to slightly bullish zone, indicating room for further upside before reaching overbought conditions. In my trading strategy, I will utilize probabilities to position myself for long trades in XRPUSD. Share Your Thoughts in the Comments Below! 12M: 2W: 4H:
CRYPTO:XRPUSDLong
by Jasminex1x2
Bitcoin scenarios updateDue to the supply of Bitcoin liquidity in the support area of ​​the previous day and the downward range within which it is located, we are still in the bearish market structure in the 4-hour and 1-hour time frames, and it is possible to enter a sell position with confirmation in the specified areas, and this confirmation can be taken in the time frame of 5 minutes with the formation of QM, but direct entry in this area is risky because we are being rejected from the 4-hour level.
Short
by MrHunterTradeInsight
1
TRENDLINE / LIQUIDITY MODULEIn this analysis we are focusing on 4H time frame for EUR/USD. In this prediction or analysis we are using trendline concept strategy with liquidity and price action. So now I'm looking for buy today, because as we know that the market trend was bullish. So wait for price when it reaches to our zone then after confirmation we will place our trade. Always use Stoploss for your trade. Always use proper money management or R:R ratio. # EURUSD 4H Technical Analyze Expected Move.
Long
by TradeTacticsreal
GBPJPY Buy analysisGJ created a demand OB at approximately 190.300. After that we had a push towards the upside reaching app. 193.00. As price went down, a potential supply OB was created which would be our target due to the confluence of equal highs created right under it. Price pushed further mitigating the 190.300 OB and created a new one once it reacted off of it (This was our entry DOB). Right before the asian session an area of sell-side liquidity was created and our asian session created highs and lows which also acted as liquidity. Right after the asian session, price swept the Asia low liquidity as well as the sell-side liquidity and tapped into the second DOB, This is where we entered. The target was simply imbalance that was made by the push towards the DOB, then the Asia high liquidity and finally the equal high liquidity. Trade went to TP and went even further, pushing through the Supply OB which was our TP.
Long
by ajdam