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Bullish AU200: Key Fundamentals & Probability StrategyThe AU200 (ASX 200) index is showing bullish potential due to several key fundamentals. Australia's economy continues to demonstrate resilience, with a strong labor market and low unemployment rate of 3.6% supporting consumer spending. Additionally, the country's resource-rich economy benefits from robust global commodity prices, particularly in key exports like iron ore and coal. The Reserve Bank of Australia's supportive monetary policy, despite recent tightening to combat inflation, further underpins the positive outlook for the AU200. I'm incorporating probability top-down analysis into my trading strategy for the AU200 to make more informed decisions and improve my chances of success. By using probability tools on my charts, I can assess the probability of price movements reaching specific levels, helping me identify high-probability trade setups. Now let's get into the top-down process: 12M: 2W: 4H: What are your thoughts on the AU200? Share your ideas and insights below!
OANDA:AU200AUDLong
by Jasminex1x2
SUPPLY AND DEMAND MODULEIn this analysis we are focusing on 1H time frame for GOLD. Here I'm using supply / demand strategy combine with price action. Today I'm looking for potential buy. As we know that the trend was bullish. I expect that market price first take small retracement at least the area 2494.00 - 2488.00 and then market will give rejection if price reject this area than after confirmation we will go for buy. But in other situation if price break below the area 2488.00 and close the candle below 2488.00 then we look for sell but we need strong confirmation first. Without any confirmation we will not take any step. Let's delve deeper into these levels and potential outcomes. Always use stoploss for your trade. Always use proper money management and risk to reward ratio. #XAUUSD 1H Technical Analysis Expected Move.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by TradeTacticsreal
USOIL: Bullish Outlook with Probability-Based EntriesMy overall bias on USOIL remains bullish, supported by several key fundamentals: 1. OPEC+ production cuts continuing to tighten supply 2. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East raising concerns about potential supply disruptions 3. Improving economic outlook in China, potentially boosting oil demand 4. Seasonal increase in oil consumption as we approach summer driving season I'm utilizing probabilities to position myself into longs on USOIL. By combining this probability-based method with my bullish bias, I aim to enter USOIL longs at optimal points with favorable risk-reward profiles. Feel free to let me know if you need any further adjustments! 12M: 2W: 2H: Wishing you a great trading week!
TVC:USOILLong
by Jasminex1x2
Exploring the Bullish Outlook for Litecoin (LTCUSD)Litecoin (LTC/USD) is showing a bullish trend, supported by several key fundamentals. The cryptocurrency market is experiencing renewed interest, with Litecoin benefiting from its reputation as "digital silver" alongside Bitcoin's "digital gold" status. Litecoin's upcoming halving event, expected in August 2023, is generating excitement as it typically leads to increased scarcity and potential price appreciation. Additionally, Litecoin's growing adoption in real-world transactions and its recent integration into various payment platforms are contributing to its positive outlook. The overall crypto market sentiment is improving, with institutional investors showing increased interest in alternative cryptocurrencies like Litecoin. I'm utilizing probabilities on my charts to get positioned into longs for Litecoin. Now, let's take a closer look at my analysis. 12M: 2W: 1H: Feel free to share your thoughts and ideas in the comments below!
CRYPTO:LTCUSDLong
by Jasminex1x2
Bitcoin Breaks $60k: How Rising Global Liquidity is Fueling the Good Morning Crypto Friends and Investors, It's an exciting time in the market—Bitcoin (BTC) is back over $60k and has successfully reclaimed the 200-day EMA. The price is following the bar pattern we discussed last time, maintaining a steady trajectory for continued upward momentum through the end of the year, especially with global liquidity levels on the rise, as illustrated in the chart below. The global liquidity trend is visible on both daily and weekly charts, with indicators like the Hull Suite, Donchian, and the Rate of Change (ROC) all trending upward. What Typically Happens When Global Liquidity Rises? Historically, when global liquidity rises, it often sparks upward trends in financial markets, particularly in assets such as stocks, commodities, and real estate. Increased liquidity means more capital is available, and central banks or financial institutions may inject funds into the economy, often by lowering interest rates or implementing quantitative easing (QE). Key Market Trends Associated with Rising Liquidity: - Asset Price Inflation : As liquidity increases, investors typically move capital into higher-yielding assets such as stocks, cryptocurrencies, or real estate. This capital influx drives up the prices of these assets, sometimes creating asset bubbles. - Lower Interest Rates: Central banks may lower interest rates to stimulate economic activity, making borrowing cheaper for businesses and consumers. Lower rates also make bonds and other fixed-income assets less attractive, pushing investors toward riskier assets like equities. Globally, this trend is already in motion, and it's anticipated that on September 18th, the U.S. Central Bank will follow suit with a rate cut, expected to fall between 475-525 basis points (bps). - Weakening of Currency Value : With more money circulating, currencies can weaken, particularly during aggressive QE periods. As currency values decline, inflation may rise, reducing your purchasing power. I highly recommend reading my article, "Why You Need to Invest," or watching my corresponding YouTube video for more information. Remember, when fiat currencies lose value, hard assets like real estate, Bitcoin, and gold tend to increase in value, so it's wise to plan accordingly. - Increased Risk Appetite: Rising liquidity and falling interest rates encourage investors to take on more risk, driving up stock market valuations at a rapid pace. If you're looking to capitalize on this risk appetite, platforms like Robinhood and ByBit offer margin accounts that allow you to borrow within your investment portfolio, increasing your exposure to both growth and potential loss. Be cautious when using margin or leverage, as global liquidity is cyclical. Eventually, QE will give way to quantitative tightening (QT), and you could risk losing your gains. - Commodities Rally: Commodities, such as oil, precious metals, and even Bitcoin, often rise in response to increased liquidity. Investors view these as a hedge against currency devaluation and inflation. Bitcoin, with its dual role as both a commodity and a tech-like asset, tends to perform well in both risk-on and risk-off environments. In my opinion, having some Bitcoin in your portfolio is always a good strategy. Risk Update: I'll be honest—during the last cycle, I convinced too many people to invest in cryptocurrency and Bitcoin because I, like many others, believed in the supercycle theory and anticipated even higher prices. This time around, I’m taking a more measured approach. As long as prices and indicators support a bullish case, I’ll continue to advise my friends and followers accordingly. However, as we approach the market’s peak, I will be sharing strategies for taking profits. You can read more in my article, "A Strategic Approach to Bitcoin," (substack.com) or watch my YouTube video, “Bitcoin's Next Big Move: My Strategy Revealed!” I’ll revisit this topic when it's more immediately relevant, but for now, fear and greed indices remain borderline fearful—this is the time to buy. A few months from now, the risks will be higher, and potential gains will be smaller. Indicator Update: Risk Level: Zero (Bullish) Puell Multiple: 1 (Bullish) Mayer Multiple: 2 (Bullish) Bollinger Bands % (BB%): 0.35 (Bullish) Hash Ribbon: Still trending higher (Bullish) In Summary: Global liquidity is on the rise, rate cuts are looming, and historically, these factors lead to significant earnings potential. Don’t wait for the FOMO to set in—our indicators and projections are tracking well, and there's substantial profit to be made if you act according to your risk tolerance and financial plan. Always consult with your financial advisor before making any investment decisions, and discuss your strategy to see what aligns best with your long-term goals. Godspeed, and good fortune. --Complete article found here: substack.com -- For more insights, please visit my webpage at linker.ee/pcalzolaio. I look forward to sharing this journey with you all. #FIRE #FREEDOM #BITCOIN Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making any investment decisions.
NASDAQ:LQDTLong
by Calzolaio
XAGUSD: A Bullish Perspective and Top-Down AnalysisSilver (XAG/USD) is showing a bullish trend, supported by several key fundamentals. The ongoing global economic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions are driving investors towards safe-haven assets like silver. Additionally, the increasing industrial demand for silver, particularly in the renewable energy sector and electronics industry, is contributing to its positive outlook. The weakening US dollar is also playing a role in boosting silver prices, as the precious metal becomes more attractive to international buyers. I'm utilizing probabilities on my charts to get positioned into longs for Silver. Let’s get into the details of my analysis. 6M: 1W: 1H:
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by Jasminex1x2
Probabilities in Play: Positioning for EURUSD ShortsEconomic Landscape Eurozone Challenges The Eurozone is experiencing sluggish growth, with some nations nearing recession. Persistent inflation pressures the European Central Bank (ECB) to maintain tight monetary policy. U.S. Economic Strength The U.S. economy shows resilience, bolstered by strong job markets and consumer spending. The Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance on interest rates supports a stronger dollar. Geopolitical Factors Ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in Eastern Europe, create uncertainty for the Euro. Trade Idea Given these fundamentals, my bearish outlook on EURUSD is supported by current global trends. I plan to utilize probability-based strategies to enter short positions. By analyzing key support and resistance levels, along with technical indicators, I aim to identify high-probability entry points for shorts. Happy trading, and may the probabilities be in your favor! 1W: 6H:
Short
by Jasminex1x2
1
USOIL : Why a 56.53% Probability Signals a Strong Bullish Move!The current global landscape presents several factors supporting a bullish bias for USOIL: Geopolitical Tensions: Ongoing conflicts in the Middle East continue to create supply uncertainties, potentially driving prices higher. Economic Recovery: As major economies show signs of improvement, demand for oil is expected to increase, putting upward pressure on prices. OPEC+ Production Cuts: Recent decisions by major oil-producing countries to limit output could lead to tighter supply conditions. Leveraging Probabilities for Strategic Positioning I'm utilizing probabilistic analysis on my charts to get positioned into longs. Here's why this approach is valuable: 1. Risk Management: By assessing probabilities, I can better gauge potential outcomes and adjust my position sizes accordingly. 2. Identifying High-Probability Setups: Probability-based analysis helps pinpoint trade entries with higher chances of success. 3. Emotional Control: Using probabilities provides a more objective framework, reducing the impact of emotions on trading decisions. 4. Adapting to Market Conditions: Probabilistic thinking allows for flexibility in strategy as market conditions evolve. By combining fundamental analysis with a probability-based approach to technical analysis, I aim to capitalize on the bullish potential in USOIL. 12M: 2W: 1H:
TVC:USOILLong
by Jasminex1x2
The Power of Probability: Navigating BTCUSD Longs with PrecisionSeveral key fundamentals support a bullish outlook for BTCUSD. Increasing institutional adoption of Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation continues to drive demand. There's growing interest in Bitcoin ETFs, potentially broadening investor access. Recent political developments, such as President Biden's unexpected withdrawal from the 2024 election, have introduced volatility in traditional markets, potentially making Bitcoin more attractive as an alternative investment. Additionally, on-chain metrics show a shift towards Bitcoin accumulation, especially among large wallets and long-term holders, suggesting renewed market confidence. I'm utilizing probabilities to position myself for long trades in BTCUSD. By focusing on high-probability setups, I can identify favorable entry points where the risk-reward ratio is advantageous for long positions 1D: 2H: Let's discuss our strategies and learn from each other!
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by Jasminex1x2
Unlocking Profits: Utilizing Probabilities for CADJPY LongsThe Canadian Dollar to Japanese Yen (CADJPY) pair is showing promising bullish potential, supported by several key fundamental factors: Global Economic Recovery: As the world continues to rebound from recent economic challenges, risk appetite is increasing. This trend typically favors the Canadian Dollar over the safe-haven Japanese Yen. Commodity Prices: With Canada being a major exporter of commodities, the recent surge in oil prices is likely to bolster the Canadian economy and, by extension, its currency. Bank of Canada's Stance: The Bank of Canada's relatively hawkish monetary policy compared to the Bank of Japan's ultra-loose policy is creating a favorable interest rate differential for the Canadian Dollar. Utilizing Probabilities for Long Positions In this trade idea, I'm employing a probabilistic approach to enter long positions on CADJPY. By combining fundamental analysis with a probabilistic approach to chart reading, I aim to capitalize on the potential upside in CADJPY while maintaining a disciplined and systematic trading strategy. 12M: 2W: 1H:
Long
by Jasminex1x2
Riding the Bull: My Probability-Based Approach to Trading GER30The German DAX (GER30) is showing promising signs for potential upside movement, supported by several key fundamental factors: 1. European Central Bank's accommodative stance 2. Improving economic indicators in the Eurozone 3. Strong performance of German export-oriented companies 4. Increasing investor confidence in the European market recovery To capitalize on this bullish outlook, I'm employing a probability-based approach to enter long positions on GER30. Take a look at these analyses to see the details behind this trade idea. 12M: 3D: 1H:
OANDA:DE30EURLong
by Jasminex1x2
Unlocking Potential: 59.90% Probability for DOGEUSD ATH Bullish Fundamentals for Dogecoin 1. Increased mainstream adoption: More businesses and platforms are accepting Dogecoin as a form of payment, expanding its real-world use cases. 2. Growing community support: The Dogecoin community remains active and passionate, driving continued interest and development. 3. Potential technological improvements: Ongoing discussions about upgrades to Dogecoin's blockchain could enhance its functionality and appeal. 4. Positive market sentiment: As the broader crypto market shows signs of recovery, meme coins like Dogecoin often benefit from renewed investor interest. Using Probabilities for Long Positions I'm utilizing probabilities on my charts to get positioned into longs for DOGEUSD. This strategy aligns well with my bullish bias on DOGEUSD, allowing me to capitalize on potential upward movements in a more calculated manner. 12M: 3D: 1H:
CRYPTO:DOGEUSDLong
by Jasminex1x2
1
You are a Fish - LaPlaces Demon Will Help You Escape BTC-WhalesHey Future Demons Lets jump right into the TA. 1. We are in a huge liquidity zone (50k-65k), where the whales have been stop hunting retailers fish for many months. 2. For the above mentioned reason it is normally a good idea to stay out of the market. We don't want to gamble. It's all about money protection and the right mindset. 3. When that is said we are right now in an expanding descending wedge, which is a bullish pattern. I know it's not the perfect example according to classical charting, but since the market is heavily manipulated, it's still a bullish structure. 4. Also the last 24 hours we saw BTC increase with around 3 %, and The Global Market Cap a little bit less. We saw an increase in volume with around 34 %, which also is a bullish sign. 5. Most people are bearish at the moment, but I believe it's a good time to be a contrarian, and go Long. But be careful in this market. Its extremely hard atm. Kind Regards LaPlaces Demon PS. Like and follow. Im here to help you from Wall Street, the Elite and big whales, who will try to outsmart you.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Lapl4cesDem0n
14
False move monday on BitcoinWe are currently sitting at the EMA50 on the 4hr timeframe. It looks like we are doint a mean reversion here again. The top was quick and formed a wick but I couldn't finde any vector candle that could be liquidity pools to recover. We also have a CME GAP at $54.2k which will be recovered soon in my opinion. We had the retest of the $58k level which was very important but I expected it to happen on wednesday. Lets observe price action but my observation leans towards shorting.
CME:BTC1!Short
by reports20netrust
AUDJPY Short Setup: Leveraging Probabilities for Better TradesKey Fundamentals China's Economic Slowdown: Australia relies heavily on trade with China. If China’s economy weakens, it can hurt Australia’s economy and the Australian Dollar. Safe-Haven Demand: In uncertain times, investors often turn to safe-haven currencies like the Japanese Yen, which could lead to a drop in AUD/JPY. Different Central Bank Policies: The Bank of Japan is keeping interest rates low, while the Reserve Bank of Australia may consider rate hikes. This difference can strengthen the Yen against the Australian Dollar. Using Probabilities for Short Trades By combining these fundamentals with a probability-based strategy, I aim to effectively trade AUD/JPY. 12M: 2W: 2H: On this timeframe I can get positioned into shorts based on probabilities.
Short
by Jasminex1x2