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Liquidity

Macro Monday 61 - Fed Balance Sheet Signals Liquidity BounceMacro Monday 61 Fed Balance Sheet Hits Long Term Supporting Trend Line The Federal Reserve Balance Sheet The balance sheet is published weekly, typically on Thursday afternoons, and it provides valuable information on the direction of global liquidity and the fed’s monetary policy. When the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet increases, it means that the central bank is acquiring more assets. This expansion can occur through purchases of Treasury securities, mortgage-backed securities, or other financial instruments. The increase in assets typically leads to greater liquidity in the financial system and can influence interest rates. Conversely, a decrease in the balance sheet indicates asset sales and reduced liquidity The Chart - FRED:WALCL ▫️ Since April 2022 the Federal Reserve Balance Sheet has reduced from $8.973 trillion to $7.140 trillion (reduction of $1.833 Trillion). ▫️ Right now, the chart has signaled that we have hit a critical diagonal trend line support (red line on chart). ▫️ We have hit this red trend line twice in the past (Sept 2019 & Aug 2008) and on both occasions it bounced from the red trend line and the balance sheet thereafter increased significantly for 2 to 5 years. If you follow me on Trading view, you can revisit this chart at any time and press play to get the up to date data and see if we have held the line or fallen below it. What does the following mean to you? ✅High likelihood of interest rate reductions in Sept. ✅Apparent stabilization of the rate of inflation (U.S) ✅A current stable labor market in the U.S ⏳The possibility of the balance sheet bouncing from trend support and increasing from the support line as it did in the past for 2 years+ (Increasing Global Liquidity). Versus 🚨 The yield curve un-inverting (moving above 0) 🚨 Sahm Rule Triggered 🚨 The marginal increase in the U.S. Unemployment Rate which is consistent with prior recessions. 🚨 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims and Continuous Jobless claims have had increases consistent with pre recession historic activity. 🚨Job openings reducing since March 2022 from approx. 12m to 9m (this would be the largest pre recession drop ever if followed by a recession. 🚨 Warren Buffet sitting on the biggest pile of cash ever. Does this all say “soft landing” imminent or should we be worried? In my opinion, we will know by Jan 2026. Its a big window of time, but the timing is the biggest challenge, and if we can take one thing from the above, volatility is guaranteed. Happy Trading PUKA
FRED:WALCLLong
by PukaCharts
2
How Spotting Liquidity Can Help Your Trading StrategyUnderstanding where liquidity exists in the market can help enhance your trading success in a few ways: 1. It can help you understand where potential blocks of liquidation could occur. The market is often attracted to these block and will liquidate there. 2. It can help you confirm patterns that exist on you charts 3. It can help you spot new patterns which you may not have spotted previously. Let's take a quick look at the "Liquidity Swings" indicator by LuxAlgo in this video.
INDEX:BTCUSDEducation
by stewdamus
MATICUSD tested the June 2022 Historic SupportMATICUSD has reached a demand zone last tested in June 2022. The market formed a long-tailed bar on the weekly timeframe, signaling a rejection of this level and the potential for a bullish move. Additionally, it broke and closed above the accumulation zone, which is another encouraging sign. If the price stays above the 0.400 level, the market could rise to retest the resistance. There’s potential for a breakout from the channel, continuing its bullish trend. Pay attention to the August close, as the monthly chart is shaping another significant long-tailed bar. The target is the resistance at 0.500
MLong
by RTED_Investing
XAU/USD Technical Analysis: Ascending Channel with Multi-TouchThese charts depict an evolving market structure for XAU/USD (Gold Spot) and highlight significant zones and patterns across multiple timeframes. 1. Key Patterns and Channels: Ascending Channel: A dominant ascending channel is visible on multiple timeframes. This is a classic continuation pattern, suggesting that as long as price remains within this channel, the prevailing trend (upward) is intact. The channel's lower boundary has been tested multiple times, reinforcing its validity as a support level. Weekly Flag: The “Weekly Flag” mentioned is a larger pattern that might suggest a continuation of a broader trend. Flags typically form after strong moves and consolidate before a potential continuation in the direction of the initial move. The flag is being “correctively broken,” which hints at a potential retest of the lower boundary or a reversal if the flag fails to hold. 2. Liquidity Zones (LQZ): 15M LQZ / Reversal Zone: This zone is near the current price and is a high-probability area for a reversal or significant price reaction. The price reacting to this level could determine the short-term direction. 1HR and 4HR LQZ: These zones are lower and represent potential targets or areas where the price might find support if it breaks down from the current structure. Daily and Weekly LQZ: These are even broader zones of interest. Their distance from the current price indicates that if the price moves toward these levels, a significant trend change or a large corrective phase could be unfolding. 3. Potential Scenarios: Bullish Continuation: If the price holds within the ascending channel and breaks above the “corrective break” in the weekly flag, this could lead to a continuation of the upward move, targeting new highs. Bearish Reversal: If the price breaks below the ascending channel and breaches the 15M LQZ, it might move towards the lower liquidity zones (1HR, 4HR), indicating a deeper correction or a trend reversal. Multi-Touch Confirmation and Advanced Pattern Recognition: Multi-Touch Confirmation : The chart shows multiple touches on the trendlines, especially on the ascending channel's lower boundary. These touches reinforce the trendline's validity and increase the likelihood of a significant move upon the next touch​. ADVANCED Pattern RECON: The "corrective break" within the weekly flag and the smaller internal channels within the larger ascending channel provide a "pattern within a pattern" scenario, which often precedes significant moves​. Conclusion: Monitor the 15M LQZ closely as it's a crucial area that could determine the short-term direction of the market. If price reacts strongly at this level, consider the implications for either a continuation (bullish scenario) or a breakdown (bearish scenario).
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Adlercon333
2
Bitcoin Contracting before ExplodingBTCUSD has seen a solid rebound off a crucial support level, successfully capturing liquidity at the previous month's low. Over the past week, the daily chart displayed choppy price action, leading to a period of consolidation within a tight range. Notably, the weekly timeframe has formed an inside bar pattern, signalling potential indecision among traders. A break and close above 63,000 could provide a strong bullish signal, potentially driving the market toward the next resistance level at 73,000. The upward momentum could persist, especially if the market rejects the prior week's low. On the 1H timeframe, a classic triangle pattern is unfolding, suggesting the price may continue oscillating within this structure before making a decisive move. The target is the resistance zone at 63,400
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by RTED_Investing
Gold Teeters on the Edge: Major Reversal or Breakout?The charts provided for XAU/USD (Gold Spot) on various time frames present a comprehensive analysis scenario where several key patterns and zones align across different time frames. Analysis Breakdown: 1. **Daily Time Frame (1st Chart):** - Rising Wedge Pattern: This is typically a bearish reversal pattern, especially when it forms after a significant uptrend. The price is nearing the upper boundary of this wedge. - Daily Liquidity Zone (LQZ) at ~2,484, The price is within a critical liquidity zone. This zone often acts as a magnet for price action, where significant buying or selling can occur. A reaction here could signal a reversal, particularly since it aligns with the top of the wedge. 2. 4-Hour Time Frame (2nd Chart): - Continuation of the Rising Wedge: The 4-hour chart mirrors the daily chart, emphasizing the wedge pattern's significance. The price is testing the upper boundary of this wedge, which could result in a breakout or a reversal. - Confluence at LQZ: The price is closely interacting with the daily LQZ, reinforcing its importance. Multiple touches near this area might suggest either absorption of liquidity before a breakout or a potential exhaustion leading to a pullback. 3. 1-Hour Time Frame (3rd Chart): - Bearish Flag Structures: Two bearish flags are visible, which are typically continuation patterns indicating the possibility of a downward move. These have occurred within the broader rising wedge. - Approach to Key Resistance: The price is at a critical juncture where the rising wedge's upper boundary coincides with a strong resistance level. 4. 15-Minute Time Frame (4th Chart): - Breakout and Retest Scenario: On the lowest time frame, a breakout from the bearish flag is evident, with the price retesting the structure's top. This may indicate either a continuation to the upside or a failure and reversal, depending on how it interacts with the liquidity zone above. Potential Trading Scenarios: - Reversal Scenario: Given the rising wedge pattern and its bearish implications, combined with the proximity to a significant liquidity zone, there's a strong potential for a reversal. Watch for a clear bearish signal on the 4-hour or daily chart, such as a bearish engulfing candle, which could confirm the reversal. A break below the wedge's lower boundary would be a stronger confirmation. - Breakout Scenario: If the price breaks above the wedge's upper boundary and holds, especially on the daily chart, it could signal a continuation of the uptrend. However, be cautious of potential false breakouts, especially around such strong resistance and liquidity zones. - Entry Considerations: If considering a short entry, look for a rejection from the LQZ on the 4-hour or 1-hour chart, ideally supported by bearish confirmation patterns (e.g., engulfing candles, pin bars). A reduced-risk entry could be taken on a lower time frame after the breakout and retest of the wedge or flag structure.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Adlercon333
4
STOP being my liquidity!! Understand what's really happening!I show it to you every day - I show you exactly how the market traps buyers/sellers and turns them into liquidity i.e. stop losses for the real traders. If you find yourself getting trapped and faked out more often than not, WATCH THIS VIDEO! Understand what is happening in the market! Unless you're here to clown - I've met a lot of you over the course of my putting these videos out. If you're here to clown, not to learn, please continue to make fun of my lines and please continue to be my liquidity! Otherwise, for those students who are truly trying to read the markets and profit from every single move - come learn with me! These videos I post are all you need! Watch my last 4 videos on TSLA and you'll start to understand what is really happening in the market and how to take the clowns' money instead of giving it to me. Happy Trading :)
NASDAQ:TSLA
by ReigningTrades
14
Quarter Theory: Mastering Algorithmic Price Movements!Greetings Traders, and welcome back! In today's video, we’ll dive deep into Quarter Theory—a powerful concept that can take your trading to the next level. We’ll break it down step-by-step, explain how it works, and show you how to implement it into your strategy. Quarter Theory is all about studying the algorithmic price delivery within the markets. It’s grounded in Time and Price Theory, which suggests that significant market moves often occur at specific price levels and times. This foundational idea will help us predict price movements more effectively. If you haven’t already, be sure to check out the previous videos in the High Probability Trading Zones playlist for the key concepts you’ll need to fully grasp today’s content. For those watching on TradingView, links to previous videos will be included to help you catch up. Mastering Institutional Order Flow & Price Delivery: Premium & Discount Price Delivery in Institutional Trading: We’re kicking off a weekly series on Quarter Theory, with the goal of helping you build a robust trading model by the end. Stay tuned! Best Regards, The_Architect
Education
by The_Archi-tect
2
Gold Spot (XAU/USD) Nears Key Resistance: Major Move Ahead?Gold Spot (XAU/USD) Market Analysis - August 13, 2024 Daily Chart Overview - Broadening Wedge Pattern: The daily chart reveals a broadening wedge pattern, often associated with market indecision and potential reversal signals. This pattern, characterized by expanding volatility, suggests that the market is at a critical juncture, with the possibility of either continuing its uptrend or facing a significant correction. - Ascending Channel (Bullish Flag): Within this broader wedge, a smaller ascending channel (bullish flag) has formed. While typically a continuation pattern, the flag is currently struggling to maintain its structure as price action approaches a significant resistance zone. - Key Resistance Levels (Daily Liquidity Zone): - The price is hovering just below the Daily Liquidity Zone (LQZ), ranging between 2,477.654 and 2,484.053. This area also aligns with the previous higher high, marking it as a critical resistance zone. - A failure to break above this zone could lead to a reversal, while a successful breakout would open the path for continued bullish momentum. - Support Levels: - The Lower boundary of the ascending channel around 2,454.606 (which aligns with the 15M Liquidity Zone) serves as immediate support. - A breakdown from this level could trigger a deeper correction towards the lower trendline of the broadening wedge, likely around the 2,420 - 2,430area. 4-Hour and 1-Hour Chart Insights - Broadening Top Formation (4H): Echoing the daily pattern, the 4H chart displays a broadening top, indicating increased market volatility and a potential battle between buyers and sellers. - Descending Channel (1H): A descending channel has formed within the broadening top on the 1H chart, suggesting a short-term bearish bias. This descending channel is pressing against the 4H and Daily LQZ, increasing the likelihood of a significant price movement soon. 15-Minute Chart Considerations - Bear Flag Formation: The 15M chart shows a bear flag, a continuation pattern that could signal further downside. This pattern is forming near the 15M LQZ, reinforcing the importance of this support level. - Potential Breakdown: The price is testing the lower boundary of this bear flag. A breakdown here could lead to a continuation of the downtrend, particularly if the 15M LQZ fails to hold. Mass Psychology & Market Sentiment - Indecision and Volatility: The broadening patterns across multiple time frames reflect growing market indecision and volatility. Traders should be cautious as this setup often leads to sharp and unpredictable price movements. - Watch for Divergences: Keep an eye on potential bearish divergences on momentum indicators like RSI or MACD, particularly around the key resistance levels. These could provide early signals of a market reversal. Trading Strategy Recommendations - Wait for Confirmation: Given the critical resistance at the Daily LQZ, it’s prudent to wait for clear confirmation of either a breakout or a reversal. A strong daily close above the LQZ would be more convincing for bullish continuation. - Short-Term Bias: On the lower time frames (15M and 1H), the bias remains bearish. Caution is advised for long positions until there's a definitive break above resistance. - Risk Management: Considering the broadening patterns and associated volatility, tighter stop losses or reduced position sizes are recommended to manage risk effectively. --- Summary: Gold Spot (XAU/USD) is at a crucial inflection point, with significant resistance at the Daily LQZ and potential support at the 15M LQZ. Traders should closely monitor price action in the coming sessions, as a decisive move in either direction could set the tone for the next major trend. ---
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Adlercon333
2
XRP/USD at a Crossroads: Major Move Imminent!Welcome to another Wolf of Block Street analysis, where we dive into the latest market trends and chart the potential paths ahead! XRP/USD is at a pivotal juncture, with indicators pointing to a potential significant move in either direction. After years of consolidation, XRP has established strong support at key levels, suggesting that a breakout above recent resistance could trigger a major bullish move. Howewer on the bearish side, XRP is contending with resistance from a downtrend line and declining volume, which eventually could lead to the liq grab to the downside before further upside. The coming trading sessions will be crucial in determining whether XRP breaks higher or dips lower, making this a critical moment for traders. Fundamentally, I still believe XRP is the best crypto coin, thanks to Ripple’s extensive work in building a robust payment network and continue their work despite the SEC lawsuit. XRP is faster and more efficient than Bitcoin in every way, offering quicker transaction times and lower fees. An NFT platform is also being built on the XRP-Ledger and we can finally say that Bitcoin and XRP are the only digital assets that have achieved any regulatory clarity! On that note, thanks for reading! Make sure to follow me on X for weekly updates: @PuppyNakamoto
BITSTAMP:XRPUSD
by WOLFofBlockStreet
5