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Extrapolating previous cycle price action to predict the futureUsing the Indicator: 4-Year Cycles Cycle Analysis: Cycle 1 to Cycle 2 Changes: ATH increased from $1,160 to $19,676 (16.96x increase) Gain percentage dropped from 52,287.39% to 12,804.2% Loss percentage slightly improved from 86.9% to 83.11% Cycle 2 to Cycle 3 Changes: ATH increased from $19,676 to $68,979 (3.51x increase) Gain percentage dramatically dropped from 12,804.2% to 1,976.94% Loss percentage improved from 83.11% to 75.93% Projection for Cycle 4: Based on the observed pattern of diminishing returns and the logarithmic nature of Bitcoin's growth: Projected ATH: $242,000 to $275,000 (Calculated by applying the observed ATH increase factors) Projected Gain: Approximately 800-1200% (Continuing the trend of diminishing percentage gains) Projected Loss: Around 70-75% (Following the gradual improvement in loss mitigation) Each cycle shows a pattern of: Reduced percentage gains Slightly improved loss recovery Continued exponential growth in absolute ATH price ATH Calculation: Cycle 1 to Cycle 2 growth multiplier: $1,160 → $19,676 = 16.96x Cycle 2 to Cycle 3 growth multiplier: $19,676 → $68,979 = 3.51x Observed Growth Multiplier Trend: Cycle 1 to 2: 16.96x Cycle 2 to 3: 3.51x Projection Approach: Lower Bound Calculation: Previous ATH: $68,979 Multiplier: 3.51 (conservative) Lower target: $68,979 × 3.51 = $242,000 Upper Bound Calculation: Previous ATH: $68,979 Multiplier: 4.0 (slightly more optimistic) Upper target: $68,979 × 4.0 = $275,91 Gain Percentage Calculation: Cycle 1: 52,287.39% Cycle 2: 12,804.2% Cycle 3: 1,976.94% Observed Decline Pattern: Cycle 1 to 2: ~75% reduction in gain percentage Cycle 2 to 3: ~84% reduction in gain percentage Projected Gain Range: Lower bound: 600-800% Upper bound: 1000-1200% Loss Percentage Trend: Cycle 1: 86.9% Cycle 2: 83.11% Cycle 3: 75.93% Projected Loss: 70-75% (continuing the gradual improvement) Methodology Notes: Used geometric progression with decreasing multipliers Considered logarithmic growth pattern Accounted for diminishing returns observed in previous cycles Disclaimer: Ultimately, these projections are mathematical extrapolations based on historical data and should not be considered definitive predictions. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile and unpredictable. This projection is based on historical patterns and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult financial professionals before making investment decisions.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by jpkxyz
4-Year Cycles [jpkxyz]Brief Introduction why Crypto moves in Cycles. "Crypto is an expression of Macro." The 2007-2008 global financial crisis was a pivotal moment that fundamentally transformed monetary policy, particularly in how central banks manage economic cycles through liquidity manipulation. Before the crisis, central banks primarily used interest rates as a blunt instrument for economic management. The 2008 financial crisis exposed deep vulnerabilities in the global financial system, particularly the interconnectedness of financial institutions and the risks of unregulated credit markets. In response, central banks, led by the Federal Reserve, developed a more sophisticated approach to economic management: 1. Quantitative Easing (QE) The Federal Reserve introduced large-scale asset purchases, essentially creating money to buy government bonds and mortgage-backed securities. This unprecedented monetary intervention: - Prevented a complete economic collapse - Provided liquidity to frozen credit markets - Kept interest rates artificially low - Supported asset prices and prevented a deeper recession 2. Synchronized Global Monetary Policy Central banks worldwide began coordinating their monetary policies more closely, creating a more interconnected approach to economic management: - Coordinated interest rate decisions - Shared information about economic interventions - Created global liquidity pools 3. Cyclical Liquidity Management The new approach involves deliberately creating and managing economic cycles through: - Periodic liquidity injections - Strategic interest rate adjustments - Using monetary policy as a proactive economic tool rather than a reactive one The 4-year cycle emerged as a pattern of: - 2-3 years of expansionary policy - Followed by a contraction or normalization period This cycle typically involves: - Expanding money supply - Lowering interest rates - Supporting asset prices - Then gradually withdrawing support to prevent overheating The 2007-2008 crisis essentially forced central banks to become more active economic managers, moving from a passive regulatory role to an interventionist approach that continuously adjusts monetary conditions. This approach represents a significant departure from previous monetary policy, where central banks now see themselves as active economic architects rather than passive observers.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by jpkxyz
GOLD ANALYZEHere we are analyzing 2H time frame for gold. By using trendline and price action module. According to this analysis I'm looking sell trade when price come into our zone than we will take some confirmation like candles confirmation and price action and than after strong confirmation we will take sell trade. Always use stoploss for your trade. Always use proper money management and proper risk to reward ratio. This is just my analysis or prediction. #XAUUSD 2H Technical Analyze Expected Move.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by TradeTacticsreal
EURUSD 8/12/24This week, with Euros to the U.S. dollar, we’ve seen price pull back to the highest area highlighted in last week’s markup. It took out the liquidity high we placed below it while also mitigating some of our longer-term points of liquidity. We’ve now identified several points of liquidity lower down, one being at the base of the last upward move. This move originated from the area we highlighted as a potential zone for bullish price action. Despite the significant upward movement, our higher time frame bias maintains a bearish narrative, indicating that money is still flowing out of this market, pushing prices lower. As shown on the chart with the indicator applied, we are now on the 4-hour timeframe. A "money-out" area has been formed, and we are watching for price action to follow this trend, targeting the liquid lows we have marked. This setup points to a sell opportunity at the start of this market session, with the expectation that price will continue to move bearish throughout the week. Stick to your risk and follow your trading plan.
by PipSurfingSociety
Ethereum (ETHUSD) : Time to Position for Profits!Ethereum (ETH/USD) is currently positioned for a bullish breakout, and I am excited to share my analysis with fellow traders. Bullish Sentiment and Technical Setup The current price action shows ETH testing the $4,000 resistance level, which, if broken, could trigger a wave of FOMO buying, propelling prices towards $4,500 and beyond. With the Relative Strength Index (RSI) reflecting strong buying momentum, now is an opportune time to consider long positions. I will be utilizing probabilities to strategically enter into long trades, focusing on support levels around $3,600 to $3,700 as potential entry points during any pullbacks. Several fundamental factors are contributing to this bullish outlook: Institutional Interest: Recent reports indicate that BlackRock has made a significant investment in Ethereum, purchasing over $230 million worth. This institutional backing is a strong signal of confidence in Ethereum’s future. Market Dynamics: The overall cryptocurrency market is experiencing renewed interest as Bitcoin has surpassed the psychological barrier of $100,000. Historically, Ethereum tends to follow Bitcoin's lead, and this correlation suggests that ETH could also see substantial upward movement. Technological Advancements: Ethereum's ongoing developments in DeFi and NFT sectors continue to attract users and investors alike. The upcoming upgrades and increased adoption are likely to bolster its price further. In summary, the combination of technical indicators pointing towards a bullish trend and supportive fundamentals creates a compelling case for trading ETH/USD long. As we navigate this exciting market landscape, I encourage fellow traders to stay vigilant and consider positioning themselves for potential gains in the coming weeks. P.S. If you have any questions about how I trade probabilities with the overall market direction, feel free to reach out. Let's capitalize on this momentum together! 2W: Hourly Timeframe Entry:
COINBASE:ETHUSDLong
by Jasminex1x2
XAUUSD OUTLOOKIn this analysis we are focusing on 1H time frame for GOLD. Here we are using SMC concept combine with price action. We have two sell areas and levels where I expect the price to drop further down. Let's see what happens and which opportunity market will give us. Wait for price when it enter into our zone and after confirmation we will execute our sell trade. Always use stoploss for your trade. Always use proper money management and proper risk to reward ratio. This is just my analysis or prediction. #XAUUSD 1H Technical Analyze Expected Move.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by TradeTacticsreal
1
XAUUSD need to be careful Liquidity is extremely strong in this area, creating a high probability for price to move both up and down to trigger all stop-losses before continuing the downward trend. What we expect: The price breaks this box to the upside, grabs liquidity from the minor high, and then resumes the downward movement, aligning with the overall bearish trend for gold. This scenario highlights the importance of staying cautious and planning trades carefully around these key levels.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by hakimbo989
XAGUSD - Short SetupMy main trading principle is that the price always moves from swept liquidity levels to untouched liquidity levels. In particular case we clearly can see the following context: price swept 1D key liquidity level and left untouched level lower. But to take more statistically more probable trades we should wait for some time of lower timeframe confirmation. For me the best way to confirm higher timeframe context is structure. We can notice the break of market structure (sign of weakness) on key liquidity level, so there is a higher probability to see price lower at least on opposite level (marked lower). Your success is determined solely by your ability to consistently follow the same principles.
FX:XAGUSDShort
by Maks_Klimenko
EURAUD BUY SETUP1️⃣ Demand Zone Reaction The price is currently in a clearly defined demand zone, where we’ve seen strong buying interest in the past. This zone has already shown signs of holding support, making it an ideal area to look for a long position. 2️⃣ Volume Profile Confirmation The volume profile shows increased activity near the demand zone, indicating significant interest from buyers in this area. 3️⃣ Fibonacci Confluence The demand zone aligns with the golden pocket area (61.8%–78.6%) of a Fibonacci retracement, adding strength to this level. 4️⃣ Bullish Momentum Potential There are signs of rejection from lower levels, with wicks and candles showing hesitation in breaking lower, suggesting bullish momentum may build from here. 5️⃣ Liquidity Grab The price recently swept the lows, grabbing liquidity from weak hands before a potential move to the upside. Trade Plan: Entry: 1.61900 (current demand zone). Stop Loss: 1.61600 (below the demand zone and liquidity sweep). Take Profit Levels: TP1: 1.62500 (local resistance). TP2: 1.63000 (higher timeframe resistance zone). Bias: The overall market structure remains bullish, with price expected to continue upward after this retracement. Reminder: Always manage your risk. Use proper position sizing and wait for confirmations if needed.
Long
by Safaric
1
$MRK Long-Term BuyHealthcare could possibly be the next rotation coming out of this tech bull run. Using the Trade Jeanie (Jeanius Screener/Indicator), I was able to see the current technical buy signals happening on NYSE:MRK : Inside a HTF fair value gap (12M timeframe) Testing a HTF uptrend line (3M timeframe) Larkuidity (Liquidity) Sweep The Jeanius Indicator shows green 'Combo' labels every time this same combination of signals happened The Jeanius Screener lets me filter my favorite tickers to see which ones are currently sweeping liquidity
NYSE:MRKLong
by jeanius_tech
Healthcare Sector (XLV) Long-Term BuyI believe healthcare will be the next rotation coming out of this tech bull run. Using the Trade Jeanie (Jeanius Screener/Indicator), I was able to see the current technical buy signals happening on AMEX:XLV : Took out an untested low Price touching 21EMA while the 9EMA > 21EMA Retested a level that was broken to create a break of structure (BOS & Retest) The Jeanius Indicator shows green 'Combo' labels every time this same combination of signals happened
AMEX:XLVLong
by jeanius_tech
2
S&P potential long when new york market opensas the bullish daily bias show us, we can see some liq to the downside that could be taken . after that we could react at the 70-80 % fib level , which is as well at the 1h Order Block . that would give us nice confirmation and we could take a trade if we get a good setup to that, the main thing is that we are bullish and that we want to get higher. but unfortunately everything can happen and we are not forcing trades. Risk 1-3 %
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by lazar_tata_business