Liquiditypool
NZDUSD | Market outlook
NZD/USD gained strong positive traction on Friday in reaction to a stronger NZ CPI report.
A subdued USD demand remained supportive of the move up amid a positive risk tone.
Rebounding US bond yields, upbeat US Retail Sales data did little to impress the USD bulls.
COVID-19 jitters kept a lid on any runaway rally for the major, at least for the time being
AUDUSD | Market outlook
The pressure on the pair AUD/USD is increasing amid the rapid spread of the Delta coronavirus strain in Australia and the strengthening of the US dollar after the publication of inflation data in the USA.
Investors remain concerned about the epidemiological situation in the country. Victoria state was locked down for five days on Thursday following a spike in COVID-19 infections. Market concerns about the spread of the coronavirus are supporting the US dollar and weakening other currencies.
US30 FORECAST Since the move 35119 made double tops with the last high of 10 May.... we all know that they is a ton of SL's above the highs I therefore anticipate that Price will go lower to fulfill IMB's at the bottom of the Range before going for Liquidity above the EQH's as the structure is so so so BULLISH.
GOLD ready to make a decision? | TRADE IDEA
Gold fell on Monday in step with a stronger dollar as investors cautiously looked forward to U.S. inflation data that could influence the Federal Reserve’s timeline for easing its bond purchases.
However, a gold recovered before NY closed and continued the rally during ASIAN session.
Possible pullback on gold around 1801-1798 (OTE) before further upside continuation.
JPY strength - good for a short? CADJPY or GBPJPY interestingGood Monday!
this is a good analysis on how JPY could be a good idea to trade this week after the run up that all currencies did against it.
Fundamentals, Japan has had some good news on their books, we will see how the liquidity responses to this .
USDTRY - Preparing for a dip?
The Turkish lira under pressure from inflation data in the country.
June consumer price index rose from 0.89% to 1.94% MoM and from 16.59% to 17.53% YoY. As a result of the partial lifting of quarantine restrictions and an increase in raw material prices, inflation in Turkey has reached two-year highs, which does not give hope for the start of lower interest rates by the country's central bank until the end of this year.
XAUUSD | POSSIBLE PULLBACKGold rose above the $1,800 psychological level on Tuesday to hit a three-week high, as a pullback in the dollar lifted bullion demand, while investors awaited minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve’s June meeting for clarity on monetary policy.
Expecting a possible pullback on gold in the following next sessions. Recommended buying on the pullbacks around 1776-770
USD/CAD – Week 26 – More correction ahead.As we were expecting in our previous analysis, the US Dollar lost some momentum against the Canadian dollar and started to depreciate.
For this week we expect the price to reach the resistance and drop until it reaches the liquidity pool highlighted on the chart.
Trade with care.
Best regards,
Financial Flagship
Disclaimer: The analysis provided is purely informative and it should not be used as financial advice. Remember that you need a plan before you start trading; so, take this knowledge and use it as a guidebook that will ultimately help you understand the market and easily predict your next move.
⚡️ Understanding Breakout Traps ⚡️If we see a pattern form that retail likes to trade,
It is highly likely that this pattern may get manipulated.
The reason these common patterns get manipulated is
because of liquidity forming.
Banks want to make sure they can create enough liquidity
for themselves to get positioned nicely in the market.
They do this by driving the price up/down into stop loss areas.
To avoid being caught out we need to sit on our hands,
wait for the stop loss hunt to occur before we go-ahead
with our initial position bias.
The Liquidity GrabI'm going to do my best here at explaining the basics around a liquidity grab (some times called a stop hunt), why it happens and how it works (ignore the chart I'm using, I'm not saying this is a manipulated move just showing you an example of how it works)
I often refer to this in my playbook as an STL "Sweep The Legs" coupled with a picture of Johnny Lawrence from the karate kid lol
First you need to understand that Big money plays a different game to retail.
When you want to place a buy order at a specific price point, lets say your buying a thousands dollars worth of BTC @ $30,000, you can put an order in and boom it gets hit your filled and your ready to go to the moon.
Now imagine some bigger traders who play with a lot more money than you, lets say there order is more like a billion dollars.
Well in order for them to fill there position, there needs to be a large amount of selling at that level other wise they may only get a small piece filled...... theeeeeen of course the price moves away and your priced out of the market (imagine putting your $1000 order in, only getting $10 of it filled and then having the price moon....yeah it would suck)
They do not want to chase candles or buy up the order book, thats just not good business, and if you have to do that in order to get your orders filled thats a good indication that there is already liquidity issues within this market and you may have a similar problem trying to cover of your position later on.
So these players some times need to hunt down and find or even artificially create liquidity pools for them to take a big bite at like pigs at the trough.
One of the easiest ways to do that is to look for the most obvious levels of support with in a trend of sideways channel and look at the buying thats happening on that level.
If we dont get an instant recovery or bounce at that level it can normally indicate price being trapped or held down in order to encourage more retail to "buy the dip" or buy on support as these are some of the most basic tools and strategies taught to retail traders.
Now one thing to remember when all of these traders/investors are in there positions from this level, there will be a large number of these traders protecting capital with stop losses, normally under the level they where buying at.
This now created a liquidity pool...... You see every stop loss on a BUY order, becomes a SELL order, and with so many BUY orders created and entered at a specific level that means the stop loss orders are stacking more and more on top.
Think about it like this, if we hit 30k and someone buys $1m worth, that means there is possibly a SELL order (via a stop loss) of roughly 1m under that level.... now we hit that 30k level again, and someone buys some more, maybe another $1m worth... well now there is roughly $2m worth of SELL orders in that stop loss zone. Hit that 30k super sweet safe support level 5 or 6 times and all the sudden you could have 8-10m worth of SELL orders at a single price point below support.
Now if I wanted to enter this market long and I had 10m order to fill, it would make sense for me to run the price down to clip these stop losses creating a large amount of selling straight into my pig of a buy order.
Once my orders filled I can stop holding the price down and let the price begin to organically rise again, this often creates fomo for all the retailers who just got knocked out of there trades from "tight stop losses" to chase the market back in only adding to the momentum and mark up of my position.
The same thing can happen in vice versa when they are covering or exiting a position as well, and its often followed by a square up to reduce or remove the risk taken on to manipulate the price during there accumulation or distribution of there order, more specially into a short position as they take on more exposure to the underlying asset to manipulate the price, in a long there exposure is fiat and there isnt any need to cover. (ill explain square up in detail next time)
This is often what is referred to as a liquidity grab and its how big players enter the market, they do not chuck a limit order in on Binance and hope for the best...
I hope that made sense and added some value, but if you have any questions please chuck them below
UNDERSTANDING LIQUIDITYIn this quick and easy lesson, I will break down the concept of liquidity.
If you retain the thought that liquidity stands for an area where stop losses are you will grasp this concept quickly.
We often see spikes into areas of liquidity before true moves continue, this is so that banks can capture as many orders as possible before they depart from the area.
JUNE 20 NASDAQ ANALYSISLooking at the CMP, see seek for the price to go lower and fill the void that was left by the buyers after the previous fast move up, once this is filled, we will be looking for buying opportunities below the area of liquidity. A good rejection and repricing will see us moving higher. Lets see how much liquidity will be poured into the markets as we watch the fundamentals shifters.
XAUUSD | Market outlook
US Fed matched wide market forecasts of keeping the monetary policy intact but the quarterly economic projections were the key. The policymakers not only revised up the near-term GDP and inflation forecasts but also pumped the rate-hike expectations, mostly known as dot-plot. As per the latest update, US GDP may grow 7.0% in 2021 versus 6.5% previous whereas the PCE figure, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, is now seen at 3.4% for 2021 and 2.1% for the next year.
US dollar index (DXY) jumped the most in over a year.
US 10-year Treasury yields rallied the most since early March to 1.58%
Best to sell on rallies around 1846-56
XAUUSD | Market outlook
Possible corrective move before Bearish trend continuation.
DXY is not much stronger. Despite a significant increase in inflation, which exceeded 5%, at yesterday's meeting, the US Federal Reserve decided to leave the parameters of monetary policy unchanged, and, according to the comments, a revision of the volume of bond buybacks will become possible only next year, when the current parameters of inflation and employment are adjusted.
Main trend is bearish as incomplete bearish pattern. Best to sell on rallies around 1842-1858
Note: Market can continue Bearish move without an upside correction.
XAUUSD | Market outlook
U.S. Treasury yields were steady on Tuesday ahead of the conclusion of the Federal Reserves two-day meeting on Wednesday, which will be watched for any signals on when the U.S. central bank is likely to begin paring its massive bond purchase program.
Benchmark 10-year yields were little changed on the day at 1.499%. They fell to a three-month low of 1.428% on Friday and have dropped from a one-year high of 1.78% in March.
Gold fell to the strengthening of the U.S. dollar, as investors eagerly awaited the outcome of the Fed meeting to find hints to cut economic measures.
It's good to sell on rallies around 1885-95.