Bitcoin Week Ahead | Liquidity Voids and News | Trading Plan Asset: Bitcoin BYBIT:BTCUSDT.P
Timeframe: 4-hour
Context:
Bitcoin has been ranging around key level of 63179, between two Weekly Open-Close levels at 69104 and 56261.
HTF
At 1D it's going down a descending channel after it closed below the 50% of the 1D FVG and is currently retesting that level
LTF
It just broke a descending triangle pattern on the 4H with a target between the 50% on a Double Fair Value Gap (DFVG) at 62294 and the Weekly OC Key level 63179.
Week Ahead: News & Liquidity
Depending on how the price reacts to this area we might see:
Bullish Plan:
Monday: Succesful Breakout above 63179, consuming the Bearish Liquidity Void.
Tuesday: Confirmation of Breakout and retesting the 4H -OB after PPI and Powel Speech .
Wednesday: Retest & Possible Continuation upwards after Core Inflation Data
Bearish Path:
Monday: Rejecting 50% DFVG Level & retesting SSL along with 50% FVG bounce/retest.
Tuesday: Retest and Breakdown from 50% DFVG, heading for Bullish Liquidity Void below the 50% FVG after PPI and Powell Speech
Wednesday: Volatility after Core Inflation Data possibly heading downwards to next resistance at 56261.
I'm more inclined to the Bearish path due to the huge liquidity void below 56265 and the violation of the 50% on the 1D FVG. What do you think?
*I welcome feedback and alternative perspectives from other traders.
*Always consider Stop loss for your positions
*Follow your own strategy: this is just my Idea, and I welcome other points of view in the comments.
Liquidityvoid
S&P500; Into the Void Pt.3S&P500 has failed to touch the "Swing High", or even the Swing High close. Meaning that there is not much to trade from(in my opinion).
However, the previous range is a good reference point and is therefore more meaningful. I have indicated a Bullish Order Block, a Fair Value Gap and an entry that is at the Equilibrium of that previous range.
TPs remain the same.
S&P500; Into the Void Pt.2A follow up on my previous idea:
The price of S&P500 failed to reach the top of the current range, meaning it is not prepared to fill the void yet. I anticipate another reach to the bottom of the range, the same FVG, but this time also finding the equilibrium of the Swing High and Swing Low that I indicated.
Take Profits remain the same: At the top of the void and at the top of the current range
S&P500; Into the VoidAfter the big selloff on Thursday - the day before NFP - S&P500 left a liquidity void that must be filled. NFP helped it get out of that bottom range leaving clean lows, a future price target for sellers.
It has created a small range which we are currently in, coming off of a fair value gap at equilibrium (50% Fib).
The price targets for long positions are at the top of the current range, and at the top of the liquidity void respectively. There should be a retracement after TP1 is hit, before eventually continuing upwards towards TP2.
NAS100USD: Exploring Potential Sell OpportunitiesCurrently, NAS100USD shows signs of a potential sell-side draw towards the H1 Bullish Order Block . This hypothesis is reinforced by several confluences, notably the presence of inefficiencies such as Liquidity Void and Fair Value Gaps at discount prices, which typically signal opportune moments for smart money to capitalize on profits.
For confirmation of entries, we await a pullback into the H4 Bearish Order Block, which also features Buy Stop Liquidity below it, serving as our selling target.
Stay tuned for an in-depth video analysis of NAS100USD to further dissect this potential trading opportunity.
Kind Regards,
The_Architect
GBPUSD: Exploring a Possible Sell OpportunityAt present, prices are at extreme premium levels, with a notable reaction from a premium m15 Order Block , in mitigating the Order Block we also filled the Liquidity Void left by yesterdays CPI News Release . A market structure shift (MSS) has occurred, suggesting a potential reversal as we aim to target the H4 Sell Stops, our Draw On Liquidity.
Additionally, there's a possibility of capitalizing on the m15 Buy Stops , particularly as it aligns with the Asian High . Should the H1 Breaker Block fail, I will consider selling against the m15 Buy Stops upon confirmation.
Kind Regards,
The_Architect
Uncovering Sell Potential: NAS100USD AnalysisI am preparing for a potential sell opportunity in the New York Session , contingent upon the Liquidity Void being filled on the H1 timeframe and the H1 Order Block . I will seek confirmation on the lower timeframes once price mitigates the H1 Order Block to target the Failure Swings (Engineered Liquidity) on the sell side.
Kind Regards,
The_Architect
TSLA fifth wave and bullish FVG 4h timeframeI've been keeping a close watch on TSLA's recent movements, and there's something worth sharing. It seems we're in the midst of the fifth wave, if we follow Elliott Wave Theory. What's even more intriguing is that on the 4-hour chart, a bullish FVG (Fair Value Gap) could be in the works, indicationing the end of the bearish (fourth) wave.
Adding to the excitement, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is giving us some interesting signals. It's right on the edge of slipping into oversold territory, a potential sign of a turnaround. Plus, keep an eye out for the impending cross between the RSI and its RSI-based Moving Average (MA), as that could indicate a significant move coming up.
This setup has definitely caught my attention, and I'm thinking there's a trading opportunity brewing. If taking the trade I would suggest a safe stoploss below the fourth wave or a more risky one below the next bullish liquidity void on the chart. I would target the end of the fifth wave as a TP area because after that I believe we will see the first correction wave of the ABC pattern.
Of course, as traders, we know the drill – careful analysis and risk management are key before making any moves.
ES short-term analysisWe have 1h Breaker block 4213.75-4220.50. We might see possible bounce to this BB and a drop to the 15m Breakaway Gap - 4177.
But it can drop from 4204 - there is 15m FVG there + 3m BB.
Break above 4227 will bring us to the 4244. This is Buyside Liquidity level.
I want to see fill of the breakaway gap first. 4177 and 4170 my key levels. They act as a magnet for the price. Once it fails to hold 4161 - SSL, we are going to have short trade opportunity with target at 4145. There is 15m Liquidity Void
BTCUSDT time to retracement?Recently, the market has created equal highs in the 25k area, where there is also a daily supply level. This indicates that there is strong resistance in this area, and that buyers have struggled to push the price higher.
However, there is potential for the market to grab new liquidity from the 22-23k area, where there is a 0.786 Fibonacci level. This level is often seen as a strong level of support, and if buyers are able to push the price higher from this level, it could signal a potential shift in market sentiment from bearish to bullish.
It's important to note that this scenario would only be invalidated if the price were to create a breakout from the 25k area with confirmations. A breakout above this level could indicate that buyers are able to overcome the resistance in this area and push the price higher.
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Follow the Shrimp 🦐
Keep in mind.
🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure.
🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure.
🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure.
🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure.
⚫️ Black structure -> <= 1h structure.
Follow the Shrimp 🦐
$EURUSD = Ending the week With a Judas Swing Short *SMT**SMT* = Smart Money Theory = everything you think that is not retail related to trading. First, SMT does not believe that triangles, wedges, trendlines, channels, harmonics, etc. has any effect on how price reacts. I'm sorry, but you won't convince me that Tesla or Bitcoin knows it has created a triangle and that it knows how to react to that? It does and will remember price levels, that's it. The second is to recognize that the price is not random, it is set by an algorithm controlled by those that control the asset. The Third thing to remember is price will do 2 things 1) move toward attacking where there is Liquidity (Equal Highs, Equal Lows, phantom Trendlines, etc.) and 2) Move toward Imbalance (Fair Value Gaps, Liquidity Voids. Open Gaps) That's the basics. The rest is very unique in the vocabulary you need to have and the concepts that wrap around these ideas.*
The asian range ican be a good determining factor as to where to look as to which direction the end of the week will move toward. First I look at the NY opening price at midnight. Price should cross that point at some time during the next trading day, whether it be during london or NY session, I honestly don't know. But it should get just above the recent swing high and breaking buy side liquidity and hitting a bearish blockj and then dropping towards the sell side liquidity breaking the lsell side iquidity created last friday by the daily low. The standard deviation of the asian range is exactly at that same low from last friday. So I have two entries,.
0.51% of account - 1.7:1 ratio
Entry 1 -0.98135
Stop Loss - 0.98797
Take Profit - 0.97000 (Just above the standard deviation to be safe)
1.75% of account ~6.4:1 ratio
Now my second entry is based on the space between two bearish order blocks .
Entry 2 -0.98456
SDtop Loss - 0.98670
Take Profit 0.97000
Additionally, I ee the dollar dropping to a bullish order block and moving up to fill a liquidity void (that should happen about the same time as the take profit hits) Then My analysis has the dollar dropping below the liquidity as the dollar contiues to drop in its valuation.
I'm hoping I hit both entries and I am able to calculate this correctly that I hit both entries and hit bothj take profits. However, due to the nature of the asian sedsion, I think It's only going to hit the first entry and take profit. If I expect that, I will probably add more to my position at some point, probnably when I can the direction is reversing, (if it does)
I could be wrong and it continue upwards, breaking structure in the upper prices. Howevber, if you look at my ideas back til may, I have not lost a trade. I may have to pass on the knowledge that was given to me via private mentorship if I keep this up.
EDIT: AFTER POSTING AND LOOKING AT PRICE ACTION THERE IS A 15 MIN fvg ALREADY LOWER THAN CURRENT PRICE, IT WILL WANT TO FILL THAT IMBALANCE.
Lastly in case it doesn't get to my final take profiut, I do have 3 goals to aim for. I usually do 30% 1st target, 30% second target 35% last target, leave a 5 % trailer to see if it continues down and keep moving your stop loss each time you hit a take profit so you dont los your winnnings.
Good luck and happy trading.
OANDA:EURUSD
TVC:DXY
ICEUS:DX1!
BMFBOVESPA:EUR1!
S&P500 Trading missedEven missed, we can learn that the price action trading are consistent and the theory and model behind the Fair Value gap are real indicating the algorithm are consistent with Time and Price. More backtesting and practice would again dictate the anticipation better. Have a good weekend all and Happy Hunting!!
Sell USDCADDXY is very weak and that is what this analysis is based on.
There are multiple confirmations of the price going short. These are
a. The breaker formed
b. The price is not respecting the previous bullish orderblocks
The price is being attracted to the Liquidity void below. Like and Subscribe.
Will BTC crash to $10k-9k or retest that Rising Wedge?Monthly TF, BTC broke Rising Wedge, since then been going down.
Question is whether BTC gonna go back up for that retest or just crash down?
BTC was filled as a LV when it went from $9k-10k to $69k.
Rule of thumb: LV always get filled the same way it went either up or down.
But BTC $10k is incoming for sure and real as that LV need to be filled.
It's gonna be a crazy ride. Stay Tuned. Bear market is not over yet.
BTCUSDT wants liquidity from 23k
The price is testing the monthly support on the 0.618 Fibonacci level.
The Market has two demand zones.
The first one between 30k and 20k, and the price could grab the new liquidity around the 23k for the reverse trade.
The second one is between 16000$ and 12000$.
How approach on it?
If the price is going to grab the new liquidity from the 23k demand zone, we could see a new pullback after a new breakout of 30k. According to Plancton's strategy , we can set a nice order
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Keep in mind.
🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure.
🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure.
🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure.
🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure.
–––––
Follow the Shrimp 🦐
XRP ready for the last DUMP before MAJOR PUMP - BUY OPPORTUNITYXRP is on the precipice of the last Dump, before a MAJOR PUMP headed for the ATH.
Price action is now headed for 2 specific areas in the chart, which cointain a massive amount of liquidity that will help to be used to pump a very strong reversal.
The main Technical Factors are: (Based on WEEKLY Chart)
1/ Between 0.11100 cents and 0.06200 there is a WEEKLY LIQUIDITY VOID
2/ There is a Breaker that has NOT yet been retested, at exactly 0.06200
3/ A double bottom was formed inside the price region of 0.17131
Note that the double bottom was finally formed (on 22nd June Week) to induce institutional money/traders to go LONG
There is a ton of institutional money sitting there in the form of Stops. The algo used to move the market, is based on 2 primary functions. Produce and retest, liquidity voids, orderblocks and breakers. Thus, the Market Makers (Manipulators) are now coming back for this liquidity and once stops are taken out (which go down low as far as 0.06200 cents) the liquidity will be used to pump the market back up to the previous ATH (a super reversal) to approx $3.80 and beyond.
The main Fundamental factors are:
1/ The SEC is suing Ripple, claiming they sold a security to fund their company, back in 2013
2/ There is a 5 year statutory limitation on such issues, where any alleged tort that occurred more than 5 years ago, cannot be prosecuted. We are 7 years from the tort, thus past the 5 year limit.
The case against Ripple will be thrown out of court, which is set for a hearing on the 19th of January 2021.
References:
* www . paulweiss . com/practices/litigation/securities-litigation/publications/us-supreme-court-clarifies-scope-of-5-year-statute-of-limitations-in-sec-enforcement-proceedings?id=12684
* dailyhodl . com/2020/12/29/first-court-date-set-in-landmark-case-pitting-sec-against-ripple-labs/
3/ The SEC Claim that XRP is a security. However XRP CANNOT be a security because:
a) XRP existed BEFORE Ripple was even a company. XRP was Originally OpenCoin and was made by 3 people, 2 of which work in Ripple, the other heads the XLM project.
b) OpenCoin was Gifted to Ripple many years after it was made, then Ripple changed the name to Ripple Coin and finally to XRP
c) If Ripple were to cease business tomorrow, XRP would still be traded on the markets, because it is NOT a representation or Share/Stock of Ripple, it is a Coin, it is a currency/commodity.
d) XRP does NOT pass the Howey test, it is NOT a security. By the SEC saying that XRP is a security, is stating the same as me being able to buy Amazon stocks, BEFORE Amazon was even a registered company.
e) There are many more legal points to consider, best place to find that would be to start here:
* newconomy . media/news/california-court-refused-to-support-sec-in-the-case-of-recognizing-a-cryptocurrency-token-as-a-security
* www . investopedia . com/terms/h/howey-test.asp
4/ In the markets, both Regulated and Unregulated, we often see Dump and Pump scenarios, mainly organised by whales who are able to 'induce' panic selling, so that the amateur and inexperienced investor, will dump their holdings, thus inducing a mass sell off which gives downward pressure to the market value of the commodity/coin/stock.
We don't have to look that far back when we can recall in 2017, JP Morgan CEO Dimon, stated that 'Bitcoin is a scam', only to induce a panic sell off of Bitcoin and then the very next day, JP Morgan were found out to have 'bougt the dip' thus buying the majority of bitcoin sold off, at 'discounted' prices. A trick where when used in 'regulated' markets, lands the institution in hot water. Due to the fact that crypto is NOT regulated, yet, institutions can get away with such skullduggery.
5/ The obvious game in play here, is to remove as many amateur holders of XRP as possible, to induce a mass sell off, purely based on Fear and rhetoric. Dump the price down to the previous breaker (An Orderblock that has had it's structure broken), and retest it, thus using the liquidity that has been sitting there for around 3 years to help pump the price upwards.
6/ Note that when stops are taken out, it doesn't only concern institutional money, it also carries with it, amateur and funds management positions, which usually get liquidated in the Derivatives/Futures market. This greatly contributes to the upward pressure of the market price, thus you will notice when observing whale feels in telegram (for example) when LARGE and SIGNIFICANT long positions are liquidated, the market price is pushed down, thus a dump occurs. When LARGE and SIGNIFICANT SHORT positions are liquidated, the market price is pushed UP and a Pump occurs.
7/ Ripple are the only Crypto company that has been following the SEC regulations and preparing themselves properly for Regulatory framework. So many staff have been hired by ripple that were previous employees of the SEC, which ensures conformity with regulatory framework.
8/ This last dump that is due to occur, will be the last dump before a massive pump, which will see new ATH achieved. Although I've explained above how the reversal is achieved in a Technical sense, there is also a fundamental aspect of this and that is directly related to the XRP/BTC market, rather than the XRP/USDT market. This is directly due to the impending SEC determination that the USDT Tether coin was and is Fraudulent, and upon the SEC determination, will induce a mass exodus of liquidity FROM BTC ---> TO XRP, thus producing the massive pump we have been expecting.
The liquidity from both Stops taken out as well as liquidity at the breaker, plus all LONGs that will be taken out and accounts liquidated will ultimately all contribute to the massive pump that we are expecting to happen.
9/ The games people play... As we note, such games are played out in diverse markets. The crypto market is not any different to other markets throughout the hundreds of years they have been around.
Crypto, although very young in comparison, is not immune to market manipulation, especially because it is unregulated at present.
Please take some time to have a look at the following 2x charts, where a comparison between XRP ---> TESLA &
tradingview . com/chart/XRPUSD/spRskwyU-Game-TSLA-CEK-18-XRP-CEK/
XRP Comparison and alternative (retail) analysis
tradingview . com/chart/XRPUSD/N8zebeLo-XRP-USD-2018-08-09-200-2020-12/
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* A note to the BTC maximalist that wants to comment with FUD and negativity on this chart.
- Before you start shooting your mouth off writing XRP is a scam, you should be more concerned about your own Bitcoin as there is a MAJOR SEC lawsuit already in motion against USDT Tether.
The Tether coin IS fraudulent and was used to initially pump the price of Bitcoin. We all know that USDT is NOT backed by anything and IS FRAUDULENT which means once the SEC is done with Tether, Bitcoin is expected to Dump extremely hard, probably down to the region of anywhere between $100 to $5K. Yes its a broad price range, but never has such fraudulent activity been experienced in this crypto market using so much fraudulent coin USDT.
- Re-read the above fundamentals statements to understand more about the XRP case and it's merits.
- You should remember what happened in 2017 with JP Morgan CEO Dimon, where he badmouthed Bitcoin stating it was a scam, and the coin dumped particularly viciously, only to be bought back up by JP Morgan themselves at 'discounted' prices. Its all a big boys game and Bitcoin maximalists are little children playing in shark infested waters. Better wake up now before you all get burned
- Between the dates of the 15th of January till the 29th of January, 2021, we should see BOTH SEC cases determined. This should be that XRP is NOT a security and has NOT violated any regulations and XRP is NOT a security (see above again for a refresher) and that USDT IS fraudulent, not backed by gold or cash and was used to pump the price of Bitcoin. Thus expect a massive exodus of Bitcoin directly into the XRP market, pumping XRP higher past any logical targets we currently have.
- Everytime there is a massive dump, made in this way, it is usually followed by a super massive pump. There is GREAT buying opportunities here, not a doom and gloom scenario for XRP. But if you own Bitcoin, you might want to dump it now before the official bitcoin dump occurs during the SEC USDT court determination that USDT IS fraudulent and was used to fraudulently pump bitcoin.
Main reference here:
* coindesk . com/crypto-traders-lawsuit-claims-bitfinex-tether-cost-market-over-1-trillion
* fxstreet . com/cryptocurrencies/news/us-treasury-to-consider-stablecoins-as-security-202012301155
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These are my thoughts and opinions, this is not financial advice or investment advice. Trade & invest at your own risk. Education is the best form of money & risk management.
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XRP/USDT preparing the bottom ready for reversal to ATHXRP/USDT consolidating and price action preparing for a level 3 (low) move before the reversal upwards to the ATH .
On this daily chart , we can see the high at level 3, the first consolidation at level 1 and second (small) consolidation at level 2... Current price action is at level 3 where the following is observed
Using the 1Hourly chart, we can see:
https:// www . tradingview . com/x/CDNEpp5M/
1/ a Double Bottom formed at the 48 cents region, which suggests a high probability move with smart money and institutional move to RUN the LONG stops and Activate SHORT positions.
2/ there is a likely move low to the 50 to 46 cent region, with a significantly large wick (especially on the Futures markets) which will most likely present itself, in order to fill the Liquidity Void
3/ the liquidity void is between 33 cents to 40 cents, we can expect one of the following to occur in this region
- a wick may touch the top of the liquidity void at approx 0.4015 cents
- a wick may fill 1/4 of the liquidity void at approx 0.3800 cents
- a wick may fill 1/2 of the liquidity void at approx 0.36722 cents
- a wick may fill 3/4 of the liquidity void at approx 0.35088 cents
- a wick may completely fill the liquidity void with a low of approx 0.33130 cents
- a rogue wick which may fill 2x liquidity voids down to 0.30660 cents
In my opinion, the most likely target which the wick will drop to would be where there is an orderblock on the weekly at around 0.3600 region. Thus a half fill on the liquiditiy void.
After the above occurs, I'm expecting a significantly strong reversal UPWARDS to go for the next ATH at aprox $3.80 within this next pump upwards.
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This chart is my own opinion, no financial advice given, none suggested, trade at your own risk.
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