When Do Breaking ATMs Signal More Than Just Technical Failure?In a fascinating twist of economic irony, Turkey's banking system faces a crisis not from a shortage of money, but from an overwhelming abundance of near-worthless banknotes. This peculiar situation, where ATMs physically break down from dispensing too many low-value bills, serves as a powerful metaphor for the broader economic challenges facing emerging markets in an era of hyperinflation.
The numbers tell an extraordinary tale: a 700% currency depreciation since 2018, 80% of circulating notes being the highest denomination available, and a stark disparity between official inflation rates of 49% and independent estimates of 89%. Yet perhaps most intriguing is the government's reluctance to print larger denominations – a psychological barrier rooted in the traumatic memory of million-lira notes from the 1990s. This resistance to adaptation, despite the obvious operational strain on the banking system, raises profound questions about the role of political psychology in economic policy-making.
What emerges is a complex narrative about the intersection of technological capacity, monetary policy, and human psychology. As Turkish banks spend entire days counting money for simple transactions and regulators continuously delay implementing hyperinflationary accounting standards, we witness a unique case study of how modern financial systems can be overwhelmed not by sophisticated cyber threats or market crashes, but by the sheer physical weight of devalued currency. This situation challenges our traditional understanding of banking crises and forces us to reconsider the practical limits of monetary policy in an increasingly digital age.
Lira
GBPTRY - Great Holiday Time :)Starting September 2nd I'll be on holiday in Turkey for 2 weeks.
I've managed to time this holiday pretty perfect, looking at the charts we can see it's been in a steep UP TREND since 2nd of July, although it could be argued it happened after the RANGE BREAKOUT in May.
GBP is now extremely strong to TRY, meaning we get more TURKISH LIRA for our GREAT BRITISH POUND.
If your planning a holiday any time soon, this is the time to exchange your currency.
I will be watching in the coming weeks to see what happens, hopefully we can keep this steep uptrend for several weeks, either way i'm happy to be exchanging my GBP to TRY within 2 weeks.
It's highly probable this up trend will not last, so make the most of it while you can, i'm confident that by the time i'm home the situation will have changed. To me, it looks like we may be about to enter into a range in the coming days.
I'm watching and waiting for either a pullback or a range breakout for entry/exchange, it's NOT a good idea to enter near the top.
Either way, from a travel view point rather than a trader, it's a great time to holiday to TURKEY!
Collecting Rollover while the TRY RangesThe CBRT has raised rates from 8.5% in June 2023 to currently standing at 50%. There was a recent CBRT meeting where rates where held at 50%. There has been a roll coaster for inflation YoY which was below 20% in 2020, rose as high as 36% in 2021, pushed up to 85.50% in 2022, dropped in 2023 to around 38% at its lowest, then pushed higher to standing at 69.8% currently. It is projected that inflation will push above the 70% lvl this year and eventually cap out and start pushing lower. The Lira is being hit hard and has lost over 80% of its value over five years due to the unorthodox method the President implemented.
But with this said, there are things going for the TRY, which is a nice carry trade (I'm in it to win it...corny (yeah I know)), with around an 18%-27% annualized gain (fluctuates), this could be some serious gains (and price has been ranging, so that is good). With the FED potentially go to lower rates in September and with the CBRT having rates at 50%, this could cause the TRY to either keep ranging or eventually push lower. But the CBRT might have to raise rates higher in order to fight inflation that is almost 20% higher than its interest rate. This makes the 30 lvl seem that much more plausible to be hit. Additionally, price is trading towards the 32 lvl and has attempted to trade below the 30 lvl a couple of times. So another hit to the 30 lvl support could potentially push it to my price target of around 27 (mean while I'll be able to collect some rollover). A standard lot holding this pair could bring in around $49 a day (depending on the rate for that day) which is a decent amount. The margin requirement for this pair, at least with my broker is 1:4, which means this pair is highly volatile and risky.
This pair can move thousands of pips in a matter of seconds and the spreads are sometimes outrageous. But, around a 1.2 micro lot would be less than $375 in margin, each pip would be a $0.01 move, and rollover per day earned would be around $0.56 a day.
The is a good chance that price will stay were it is at and push lower. The 33-35 lvl is the cap, but for price to push as high as 35, there would have to some strong catalysts to make that happen. I think this is all a self-fulling prophecy with all waiting to see when the FED will make its move. For now, the plan is to keep building in this pair, collect rollover, and wait until at least the 30 lvl is hit to make another decision on whether I want to see it play through to the 27 lvl.
Stable TL For the Next Few Years? A quick update on the future of the Turkish Lira (TL):
Interest rates will rise to the range of 30% to 35% and will remain high for the following years (possibly 2-3 years). The Turkish Central Bank will stop printing vast amounts of money, and getting loans for purchasing houses or cars will become difficult. This action will lower inflation for few years. TL will have a correction to the levels of 20-23 within a few years.
After 3-4 years, the next target will be levels of 40-60. The Central Bank will continue to print money and lower the interest rates. That will trigger another inflation around 2027-2028.
Targets:
First target: Range of 28-29
Second target: Range of 25-28 for a few years
Third target: Levels of 20 for a swift correction
Last target: Levels of 40 after 2-4 years
This constitutes a very long-term analysis. It is important to note that this assessment could be inaccurate; all the stated opinions are personal. The market can undergo drastic changes due to even a minor policy adjustment. Therefore, exercise caution and conduct your own research before making any decisions. Stay safe.
Right, I'm calling it! 😁💥Overview
I'm calling 2024 the end of Lira selling.
The Details
2024 could see Turkish inflation peak🗻
The main driving force of the TRY selling has been unconventional monetary policy, erratic changes of the head of Turkey's central bank and finance ministers, and undisciplined high inflation
A rate hiking cycle has been in play since May 2023 - rates hiking from 8.50% to 45.00% - and conventional monetary policy seems to have finally arrived😅
Erodgan seems more committed to tackling inflation and having central bank stability
Things to consider
I am not suggesting that Turkey is on the verge of a boom, though I am not ruling this out; inflation could be peaking, so the Lira may finally see strength. This will create an all-time high on the TRY charts.
I suggest that the aggressive uptrend could be coming to an end, even if that means TRY pairs start ranging.
The carry trade makes this an irresistible opportunity for me. I have been long TRYJPY since June 2023, which has resulted in generous daily swap payments💰
USD/TRY is to jump in 2023?For the last months, the Turkish lira has been traded near the all-time lows against USD. I think that demand for the lira would shift soon, and it would trigger a breakout of resistance of 18.7 with the first psychological price target of TRY 20 for 1 USD with consolidation near 25 in the second half of the year.
In terms of technical analysis, I do not see any compelling things on the USD/TRY chart.
Therefore, I decided to look at an exotic currency pair with TRY on one side. I have taken Hungarian forint or HUF. Comparing HUF with USD or EUR , we can say, it is a weak currency that has constantly lost its value for the last 20 years. However, against the weakest TRY, HUF is a king. On the TRY/HUF chart, I see an opportunity to breakout of support of HUF 18.4 for TRY until the end of the year. The first target could be 14 with the chance to drop to 10. Keeping in mind that HUF is a weak currency that is now in a temporary good shape against the world currencies, such a possible forint strengthening against the lira could happen only if the latter drop to the majors.
If TRY/HUF is to be 14, and USDHUF is near its essential middle-term resistance of 380. It means USDTRY would be around 27,14. If TRY/HUF reaches 10, USDTRY would be 38. With a magical macroeconomic policy in Turkey, including jumping inflation , artificially low-interest rates in Turkey , and raising interest rates in USD, EUR, and Erdogan's elections in June (and budget spending increase), it doesn't seem impossible to me.
TRY Bleeding Out%19 Interest rate, huge debts, vaccination progress is still very low.
Turkish Central Bank manager kicked out because of interest rates, but we have still a huge interest rate and USD/TRYis still going forward. What Turkey could do? No tourism income for now, no leverage hand for interest anymore.
Unfortunately, TRY will be 10 soon if we close daily above 8.58. Also, don't forget DXY is bleeding out what is gonna happen when DXY hits 98 again.
Not financial advice.
Erdogan win most lucrative trade of EURTRY continuesI'm writing to you today to discuss the recent election results in Turkey and how they have impacted the value of the Turkish lira.
As you may know, President Erdogan's party suffered a significant setback in the recent local elections, which has caused a drop in the value of the Turkish lira. While this news may concern some, it presents a unique opportunity for forex traders like us to invest in the Turkish lira at a lower value. He just won again today!
I encourage you to take advantage of this opportunity and invest in the Turkish lira. With the right strategy and analysis, you could see a significant investment return.
As always, doing your research and making informed decisions regarding forex trading is essential. But with the current situation in Turkey, there's never been a better time to consider investing in the Turkish lira.
Thank you for your time, and happy trading!
Quick one: USDTRY might be about to go boomForex market have started getting very volatile (after years of making us fall asleep), following the west heavily increasing their interest rates + the war against Russia.
The risk reward could be very good, the price can easily rally strongly. It looks like it could be about to burst. Even 15% odds of that happening are worth it to me.
The USDTRY fundamentals have changed:
- now it is as bad as before for the Lira
- but now the USD has interest to make it even more attractive compared to that dead currency
Makes sense to me it will continue to go up like it has been doing for years in a straight line as it now has even more reasons to go up.
Do not hold too long, the high lira rate hurts after a while; but not as much as it used to as it has been going down (from 20 to 10% in the past 12 months) and the USD rate has been going up.
Would really surprise me if the exchange rate between these two did not continue on its way up before very long. But you never know in this game...
USD Would be 20 Liras in Next MonthsAlthough the chart has too many bullish daily candles, the upward angle and trend confidence shows me the trend is your friend. So I expect a new record high and a breakout of December's high of 18.25 . The target is 20 in the next two months .
On the macro side, the imbalances remain. Turkey has the highest negative real interest rate (minus 64%) * among countries targeting inflation worldwide. Turkish inflation continues to grow, and the negative difference would grow. As a conclustion country's economic agents would continue to get rid of the lira. The Turkish central bank can't achieve its 5% inflation target for more than a decade. With Erdogan in power, it would never happen.
Yearly current accounts have been negative for the last 20 years, with one exception in the 2020 Covid year. In 2022 Turkey continues to register the current account deficit thanks to the high energy prices of imported goods and perpetual high inflation. Without a sound monetary policy, the Turkish lira could be permanently devalued to new historic lows every year or two.
* I compare last month's inflation with today's central bank policy rate. It is not 100% correct in the macroeconomic sense. They compare the expected inflation rate at the end of the year with the policy rate. Still, all forecasts are sloppy and usually are not on target, so I deliberately use the statistics.
EUR/TRY LOOKING BEARISH, THIS IS WHYI am aware of the current geopolitical problems in the world and especially in Turkey.
Also the economy of Turkey has had a very hard time.
In 2023 there seem to be re-elections. Maybe if they get rid of Erdogan there can be a future.
Also 2023 is like the holy grail year for the Turks because they can "pump the oil out of the ground", because of a so called 100-year contract ending.
Anyhow, returning to the chart what I see is a double top and a breakout downward from a parabolic move.
I would be comfortable to buy some Turkish Lira at these levels, looking at those signs and the current risk level.
USDTRY, near a major resistanceHello traders and arkadaslarim, This is an update of previous analysis (blow link). Everything is clear on the chart for you like always. So monitor the price's action in the circle. After breakout the resistance zone and fixation, we can buy and for lower risk after pullback.
Good luck.
If you like the idea, do not forget to support with a like and follow me for next analysis :)
Write your comment and opinion below to me
U.S. Dollar / Turkish Lira USDTRY -ShortUSD/TRY may end the uptrend for a period of time in a bear market correction. Either the bear market is in the going or the uptrend may
still needs to make more uptick before the bear market resume. The wave count and chart pattern may give us a clue for the direction of the trend. Only sustain trading above 18 Lira to one US Dollar may destroy the bear market correction scenario.
Turkish Lira (USDTRY)Economy keeps crashing in the hands of "strong man" Erdogan, who has fired every Head of Turkish Central Bank who tried to stop him fulfill his own Turkish Dream of hyperinflation in which business is no longer possible as the cost of imports and commodities rises daily. Erdogan's genius policy in a world where growth and investment is stalling is to keep slashing interest rates in the hope of stimulating investment in Turkey's economy... oh and getting his loyal supporters to hand out dollar bills in loyal neighbourhoods so that the people can burn them in front of TV cameras.
This country of 85 million has no economic policy at all anymore. It is a total basket case and failed state in the making. Get out!
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You maniacs! You blew it up! Ah, damn you! God damn you all to hell! --- Taylor
USD/TRY
In long-term view, the pair is heavily overbought and inflation is very high
It does not mean the market condition can continuously drive it upwards.
TP areas are signed white flags. And supports are black flags.
*Please share your opinion on it, write in the comments. Dont forget some cheers bravo. "
Teşekkürler.
USDTRY, Correction then Growth. Update Hello traders and arkadaslarim, Everything is clear on the chart for you like always. So monitor the price's action in the circle. After breakout the resistance zone and fixation, we can buy and for lower risk after pullback.
Good luck.
If you like the idea, do not forget to support with a like and follow me for next analysis :)
Write your comment and opinion below to me
USDTRY - Bullish Bias RemainsAs for now, Turkish Lira is still ABOVE 2021´s Close (Black Line) and Came back to Restest it.
Hence the Bullish Bias Remains. If price starts going up it will end at yearly R3.
If price breaks below yearly S1 (what I find unlikely) the yearly downtrend will be to S3.
For Educational Purposes Only.