Turkish Lira Showing Signs Of StrengthI posted a monthly chart for the Dollar a few months back that showed the Dollar will continue to lose value in the future. This will obviously not happen overnight, but I expect over the course of 2021 the dollar will continue to it downtrend. Looking at the Turkish Lira monthly chart, we see bullish divergence, and several indicators showing strength. If you look into the emerging currencies market vs. the Doallr you will see the same exact picture. DO NOT be fooled, the Dollar will lose value this will impact the US economy on a global scale.
Lira
USDTRY New trading range and the end of correction !As I have posted last week, Turkish Lira has
started its correction against USD. But not
7.8000 is my support level, which will be
hard to cross, if there will not be strong
fundamental advantage. We can expect
8.0000-7.8000 range for next several weeks.
I will update analysis if there will be some
crutial news.
Terms and short forms!
T - Trendlines (T1,T2... etc.)
S - Supprt levels (S1,S2... etc.)
R - Resistance levels (R1,R2... etc.)
TP - Take Profit
SL - Stop Loss
F - Fibo Levels (F23,F61... etc.)
Check out my next stream "What is divergence, why it is important for trading?"
www.tradingview.com
USDTRY Correction has started, track the green line !My expect movement on TRY has started.
Compared to my last post, check the link below
Terms and short forms!
T - Trendlines (T1,T2... etc.)
S - Supprt levels (S1,S2... etc.)
R - Resistance levels (R1,R2... etc.)
TP - Take Profit
SL - Stop Loss
F - Fibo Levels (F23,F61... etc.)
Check out my next stream "Group from Moving averages based on Fibonacci numbers"
www.tradingview.com
TRY The most important range for next 3 months !TRY can be stabilized before christmas, due to
sales and tourism turnover increase. 9.0283-
8.1985 is the range for next several months
if there will not be any fundamental changes
as international policy of Turkye is under
strong tension. A lot depends on fiscal policy
and fundamental changes in the economic
structure, than monetary policy.
Terms and short forms!
T - Trendlines (T1,T2... etc.)
S - Supprt levels (S1,S2... etc.)
R - Resistance levels (R1,R2... etc.)
TP - Take Profit
SL - Stop Loss
F - Fibo Levels (F23,F61... etc.)
Check out my next stream "Group from Moving averages based on Fibonacci numbers"
www.tradingview.com
EUR/TRY: long trade closed in profit (Demo) as trend at extreme.Hello traders,
the readings on RSI and ATR, as well as the angle of the current hyperbolic move, make for difficult incentives for
holding a long trade on EUR/TRY: therefore, I closed my trade about 50% through the profit target and made a healthy
catch (over 26k).
In this video the key points discussed are:
- ATR divergence/waning (multi-timeframe analysis);
- RSI poss. divergence and also extreme reading (90+) in monthly/weekly;
- angle of hyperbolic rise starting to shape toward a vertical, strikingly similar to that of the 2018 move;
- extreme oversold reading in the MSCI Turkey ETF iShares and fading sell volume after historic lows warns of Lira-short exhaustion.
I also share a news source that is fundamental for Turkish Lira traders - watch the video to the end (no sales, it is a public resource)!
Thanks.
Stay safe
Happy trading
Francesco/FreeFX
EUR/TRY technical and relative strength analysis.In this video I am looking at the relationship between EUR/TRY and the
i-shares MSCI Turkey ETF, which allows us to look at volume data as a proxy
for momentum in EUR/TRY, specifically addressing the following question:
- is the MSCI Turkey ETF selling overdone?
- what does the daily and weekly ETF's RSI tell us?
- with the index reaching the 2018 lows, is there any more room to sell?
The Lira is on an endless devaluation trajectory, but of course there may be
room for some correction in the near future before further EUR/TRY (and other
Lira pairs) appreciation.
Food for thought.
Francesco Sani, FreeFX
EUR/TRY long-term direction (technical / fundamental).In this video I am looking at various aspects of trading the Lira,
namely its technical underpinnings and using a relative strength
assessment to check its possible trend momentum.
I look at the Turkey MSCI ishares ETF for correlation and volume
as a proxy for what may happen to Lira pairs.
Enjoy!
Francesco
EURTRY time to SELL Fundamentally, Turkey is important to stay in NATO , close to EU, supported by Germans, invested heavily in by Europeans and others.
Negotiations with Greece will commence (starting in 2 weeks) and after all Turkey has nothing to lose and lot to gain from East Mediterranean Natural gas resources.
Take this from a Greek like me, emotions are not good when you trade.
Technically, EURTRY looks bearish on the charts too. The 9.00 mark acts as a strong rounded-number resistance level.
Peace and prosperity to all and good trding wishes to our friends and followers
Money Supply Effect on BTCAs a summary my mid-long term projection is:
BTCUSD: Bearish
DXY: Bullish
BTC.D: Bullish
Altcoins: Bearish
Contrary to most, i still do not think that money supply will push BTC and crypto prices higher. US dollar is still powerful and till inflation starts to increase and DXY completes its movement, all pairs against USD have to be in correction.
At the end i wait very long and greedy bull market for all risky assets including cryptocurrencies and emerging markets. As an example, Turkish lira is one of the worst fiat currencies nowadays all around the world but it is just completing its major cycle against USD. You may check other emerging markets and currencies such as South Africa, Brasil etc.
XU100/USDTRY
To sum up, instead of a financial collapse, i will be waiting for risk appetite in long term but for now world need US dollar!
Big Day For USD-TRYUSD TRY shouldn't close today above 7.1 for a lot of technical reasons I cannot possibly mention here.
Let me just say that there should be a ton of resistance there.
Right now it is surprisingly holding very close to the top.
If it doesn't close and spends a few days in this area the possibility's become increasingly bullish.
In the event that it closes above 7.1 at any point within next week it's mid term target becomes 9.2 and there will be very little resistance to get there.
In the event that it closes today above 7.1 the price will rally like a rocket and 9.2 will be reached in a much shorter timeframe.
This is very sad for all Turkish people. And what's even worse is that no one there has a clue about this.
ridethepig | Thoughts on Turkish Lira📌 The capitulation
After PA in December 2018 showed us the basing formation it has been all 'one way trafffic'
This may lead you to wonder why it is so important to understand the fundamentals and definition of current capital flows, because it is then possible to build one's whole swing around a macro fundamentally sound trade idea, that underpins the technical ebb and flow tactics.
Of course we continued to pile on longs all the way up, our confidence in the swing was building which influenced the way we were able to construct the trade and future of the operation. Here I must highlight that the move does not last for ever; a full blown +50% move in a currency crops up occasionally, in fact even more you can see the need to capitalise on these moves.
So, as we approached the start of the 'flash crash' or up in this case, the following additions were made:
Then suddenly it happens, the almost powder runs dry in Turkish local banks and we get the momentum higher. It shows how hollow and uninteresting currencies can be, very straightforward when used in the safe little world of macroeconomics. A quick update on the initial leg of the Q3 flows we were tracking live:
The final motive to clear was nat gas being discovered, the threat of continuing higher is very high and therefore logical to trade. Funding rates are casually moving higher but with no sense of urgency which of course is linked to the entire defence system for sellers at 7.80. Now it's important to load off of the previous resistance in the first leg of Q3 at 7.20, for a move into the final macro targets above at 7.80xx right on time for the elections.
Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎