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Lira

Two great Buy opportunities on this chart for USDTRYMid-Term Forecast Trading suggestion: . There is a possibility of temporary retracement to suggested support line (7.4086). if so, traders can set orders based on Price Action and expect to reach short-term targets. Technical analysis: . USDTRY is in a range bound and the beginning of uptrend is expected. .The price is above the 21-Day WEMA which acts as a dynamic support. . The RSI is at 41. Take Profits: TP1= @ 7.4086 TP2= @ 8.0000 SL= Break below S2 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Short-Term Forecast Trading suggestion: . There is a possibility of temporary retracement to suggested support line (7.4123). if so, traders can set orders based on Price Action and expect to reach short-term targets. Technical analysis: . USDTRY is in a range bound and the beginning of uptrend is expected. .The price is above the 21-Day WEMA which acts as a dynamic support. . The RSI is at 70. Take Profits: TP1= @ 7.4530 TP2= @ 7.7210 TP3= @ 8.0000 SL= Break below S2 ❤️ If you find this helpful and want more FREE forecasts in TradingView . . . . . Please show your support back, . . . . . . . . Hit the 👍 LIKE button, . . . . . . . . . . . Drop some feedback below in the comment! ❤️ Your Support is very much 🙏 appreciated! ❤️ 💎 Want us to help you become a better Forex trader ? Now, It's your turn ! Be sure to leave a comment let us know how do you see this opportunity and forecast. Trade well, ❤️ ForecastCity English Support Team ❤️
Long
by ForecastCity
21
💥 Let's be short! Powerful breakdown on Turkish Lira! Deal 2💥 Hello everyone. For some reason, our articles are blocked without explanation, so they are short and to the point. On the chart, we choose the breakout, deal # 2, entry points, goals and volume independently and remember about the risk. PS: In our system, all the signals to buy. You can view the history of all transactions (which have not been deleted yet) in your profile. Be sure to remember about the risks!
ULong
by ivan_gold_star_
New Higher Highs For LiraAnalysis : First time weekly close above the highest pinbar of 2018 devaluation Correlated pairs (gbptry,eurtry) already closed above weekly top Fundamentals : Coronavirus :Jobless claims and inflation rates getting higher during pandemia. low tourism income Negative real interest in TR TR Central Bank can not limited usdtry @ 6,86 and showed us they has negative deposit in real Joe Biden's election winning almost accepted by everyone. Biden's foreign policys is not familiar for TR. That can cause sanctions applied for TR soon Take Profit : Fibonacci extension and trend channel targets 8,20 - 8,40 area Note : This strategy will not be valid if good news announces for Lira/TR Centeral Bank
Long
by SuleymanCem
Pt 2: Turkish Lira → gold & BTC volatility As per previous post, the lira (USDTRY) has been getting hammered in an ongoing currency crisis through mismanaged gov & monetary policy, souring US relations, and COVID hitting the country’s tourism industry. President Erdogan, who has been directly calling the shots at CBRT (Turk cent bank), despises the prospect of raising rates, despite the need to put a floor under the currency amidst a >20% inflation rate eroding the Turkish citizen’s purchasing power quickly. Further monetary mismanagement from their shift to embracing/aggressively accumulating gold reserves has Turkey now exceeding Russia as the largest buyers of gold (hence contributing to gold recent ↑ through record highs) - instead of using their dwindling FX reserves to buy gold at ATH, they “should” be defending the lira, which is now at all time record lows vs the dollar and euro. Along with its pro-gold/anti-dollar (due to sanctions) stance, Turkey has also been aggressively embracing crypto and digital currencies over the past year, with 2020 CBDC rollout. Crypto trading has greatly expanded in Turkey, companies like Binance expanding their local footprint. How this relates to gold and BTC this past week & going forward: •First just to preface: In a recent post shortly BEFORE TSLA Q2 earnings, I had called for TSLA results to be the top for the stock regardless of what they announce (good or bad, net profit/loss), as well as the catalyst to re-start a BTC rally, as the retail driven focus and flows move from one bubble to the next (“one bubble at a time.”) Within 2-3 hours of TSLA Q2 results and investor conference call, BTC jumps +5% kicking off the current rally. May be coincidental (sure doesn’t seem to be), but BTC which until that moment had been trading dead flat, suddenly sprinting to life matches in timing with my call - as opposed to all other commentators citing “central bank printing,” “dollar ↓,” “gold & silver ↑,” and even the halving from months ago. ALL of those things are fundamental reasons for BTC to go up, ALL of those things had BEEN going on (some, like printing fiat, have been going on for over a decade), and NONE of those explain why the markets suddenly decided that was the time to price it in - and therefore are nonsense zero value attempts at explaining. •With that said, I’ve also repeated countless times that the spark catalyst (for both BTC, gold and silver) doesn’t necessarily equal the sustaining driver for upside, in fact that would be highly unlikely. The initial price jump is almost irrelevant, because there are who knows how many hundreds of billions if not more with their fingers on the trigger ready to get long BTC, and to a lesser extent gold and silver, all of them know the fundamental case, and they just need that initial price move confirmation before deploying their capital. So TSLA was the lit match, but the room is already soaked with gasoline - and when fully ablaze, the long-charred matchstick will barely be an afterthought. •Therefore, if Turkey’s ongoing currency crisis (which really began in 2018) is rapidly deteriorating while BTC looks to show SOME signs of life, those who hold lira will jump ship and shift their assets to something, anything, that won’t destroy the value of their liquid assets like the lira has been. Look at the chart- BTCUSD and BTCTRY (along with BTCJPY, BTCEUR etc) have all moved pretty much in tandem % for %, with little spread between BTC and the different fiat pairs. But in the last week, not only is BTC at record highs vs the lira (certainly not vs $ € ¥ £ etc), but the performance spread between BTCTRY and BTCUSD have become notably wide - by double digit % diff within a few days. This is obviously a reflection of dollar vs lira, but shows just how much flows are moving from lira to BTC vs other fiat. It also explains a lot of BTC’s recent post-resurgence pullbacks - Lira volatility with flows in/out based on developments from Ankara. •Gold on the other hand has been on a consistent nonstop surge, until yesterday- as my chart posting from yesterday points out that the gold rally will stall due to the lira sell off reversal. And indeed that seems to be how the day played out. If Turk CB has been the largest buyer of gold though July, then that means they are selling lira (and fx reserves) to buy gold = gold ↑, lira ↓. If reports are true that CBRT reserves are running out, then that means no more inflows to gold from a major contributor to the rally (gold loses upside steam and sellers take hold pushing prices ↓ for healthy correction), and no more lira selling (“no more” as in a slowdown in rate of change terms). So therefore, my view was/is that if the lira starts to reverse and appreciate (USD/TRY ↓), gold will follow. That seems to have happened, and seems to be what finally caused the gold rally to pull back. That’s why my last post was saying: keep an eye on the lira, for both BTC and gold near term directionality. Going forward: Gold and BTC will resume their ascend in the immediate - med term, because of much larger forces than the lira. But thinning bullish volumes towards the top of the gold and silver rally + thin volumes in general for crypto make their price action susceptible to a major EM currency like the lira in crisis. Personally I’m remaining long Gold untouched and just bought (very cheap) puts ahead of the downward move yesterday, which I’ll liquidate and use to add to gold as I keep eyes on Turkey. I took down 25% BTC exposure (25% figure comes from my % gain since getting massively long ahead of TSLA earnings), and plan to redeploy back into BTC. I DO NOT recommend shorting either gold or BTC, as the lira situation can re-reverse in a heartbeat, and/or the (absolutely clueless) bulls will just come in and buy the dip. What started as a TSLA spark has been picked up by Turkish lira holding citizens, obviously in addition to global individuals re-entry to BTC (in dollars, yen, euros, pounds etc). However, it hasn’t been enough of a move to pull in the institutions yet- though it’s still early in the BTC next phase rally, and this is why BTC upside isn’t yet a one directional decisive surge.
Short
by acrossthespread
EUR / TRY 7/6/2020Welcome to this analysis on Euro / Turkish Lira. EUR / TRY has been in a massive macro uptrend since 2019, It paused around the highs of the previous uptrend cycle of 2018 at 7.850. Since the 7th of May, the market has gone sideways, it had a pullback to 7.35, re accumulated there, and bounce back to the previous high. Looking at the structure, it looks like it has made a Symmetrical triangle pattern which can also be a handle of a Cup And Handle continuation patter if price closes above the previous high at 7.85. The target of the triangle is at 7.9 and the target of the Cup And Handle is around 8.25. The 2 levels of resistance above the current price are the previous high at 7.85 which used to be a daily close high of the 2018 cycle as well and above that the psychological 8 level which is also the wick highs of 2018 cycle. This trade idea has 2 rewards to risk if it hits the triangle's target and 5.5 R if it hits the target of the Cup And Handles. Good luck trading.
Long
by Trader_Shayan
2
How Will USD Bull Run Continue USD is - still bullish, - has consistent volume, buys are slightly increasing since the beginning of the year. - made the bullish flag in previous year. - hit the bottom of the uptrend channel that validates the target zone at the top of the channel. - Turkish economy is still in fragile-five. Correction to 6.70 (Fib Level 0.236) is possible. It is up to you to wait for that scenario. Entry Zone : 6.70 - 7.00 TRY (Fib Level 0.236) Target Zone : 9.00 - 10.00 TRY (Fib Level 0.786) Stop : 6.40 TRY (Outside of the uptrend channel) Expire Date : Mid 2021 Psychological Levels : 9 - 10 - 12.5 p.s. This is not a trade advice. Do your own research and take your own risks.
Long
by aozan88
Ascending scallopNote USDTRY's 92 percent negative correlation with Crude Oil on weekly. Crude oil needs to to trend up for USDTRY to fall. Long terms trends seem to be effected by Crude Oil, as is the case with Mexican Peso and Thai Bath with which heavily Lira correlates (90 and 88 percent). It also has 97 positive correlation with the Natural Gas (XNGUSD) on 4 hrs. Price formed ascending scallop pattern (Lira trends in scallop series), classified as short term bullish continuation pattern. Ascending scallop reversals perform better than continuations. Narrow scallops take less time to reach ultimate high than short ones. Tall patterns perform better than short ones. Scallops get narrower and shorter when compared with prior scallops in series. For more, refer to Bulkowski's Encyclopedia of Chart patterns. Chapter 41. Scallops, Ascending. Price is moving in rising channel. Uptrend on weekly. Intermediate pullback. For trend change, channel needs to be broken to the downside. Since price broke May roof it should eventually hit R5 (7.42) - I marked the target. But first we should reach weekly S5, after breaking weekly support S4. Price below May A down pivot and will make a loop swing below it. The size of that loop might vary. The loop's bottom will be either at weekly S5 or at yearly R4. Top correlation 4 hrs 1 USDTRY - EURTRY 99.0% 2 USDTRY - GBPTRY 97.2% 3 USDTRY - EURCZK -92.2% 4 USDTRY - USDTHB 87.5% 5 USDTRY - XNGUSD 87.2% 6 USDTRY - USDCZK -85.8% 7 USDTRY - GBPCHF 84.1% 8 USDTRY - EURGBP -84.1% 9 USDTRY - GBPCAD 82.2% 10 USDTRY - GBPNOK 81.6% Top correlation 1 day 1 USDTRY - GBPTRY 92.2% 2 USDTRY - EURJPY -91.3% 3 USDTRY - AUDNZD 88.9% 4 USDTRY - CHFJPY -88.4% 5 USDTRY - AUDCAD 87.4% 6 USDTRY - AUDCHF 86.5% 7 USDTRY - EURTRY 83.6% 8 USDTRY - AUDSGD 83.3% 9 USDTRY - AUDUSD 81.2% 10 USDTRY - EURSGD -80.3% Top correlation 1 week 1 USDTRY - GBPMXN 95.0% 2 USDTRY - XTIUSD -92.9% 3 USDTRY - XBRUSD -92.8% 4 USDTRY - GBPTRY 92.5% 5 USDTRY - EURTRY 92.5% 6 USDTRY - USDZAR 92.3% 7 USDTRY - EURZAR 91.5% 8 USDTRY - NOKSEK -91.5% 9 USDTRY - USDMXN 90.1% 10 USDTRY - CADCHF -89.7%
Long
by ICFX
7
USDTRY: WeeklyAs you see, current bullish move was already predictable from October 2019 using TD (DeMark) breakout projection no. 2. Now, price is facing very strong support - May central pivot range (CPR), May Camarilla S3 reversal level, yearly classic S2 pivot, yearly Fibonacci S3 pivot (did not plot the last 2 to have it more clear - but they are there) all at same point, confluence with May S3 reversal level. If this level holds and price is rejected, what is also possible, it will bounce up and continue in uptrend or range above monthly CPR. If price breaks through monthly pivot range, as it is moving quite decisively into it and we have got that weekly pin bar reversal on top, short trade may be taken to former yearly roof R4, now support. At any case May CPR (I highlighted it black) is a fulcrum which holds the price now. If it is pierced through, that is it. After reaching highs, Turkish lira makes those descending ranging tails. What might be a scenario here. But there is a concern - price missed April pivot and April CPR, did not even test those. Such things occur at the onset of strong trends. Next month (or be it a day, week, depending on chart) price pulls back to the pivot and continues higher. So it is very important what happens at May CPR (that highlighted black zone). Price should move lower and touch S3 - May pivot. Then we will react depending on how it will behave after that. S4 is May floor. May roof R4 was pierced, that should be noted too. THIS IS NO FINANCIAL ADVISE. FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY.
by ICFX
1