ridethepig | TRY Capitulating...The struggle for democracy is being carried out and as long as Erdogan remains at the helm there is only one direction for TRY. Autocrats are typically sticky in nature and difficult to remove, the attack should first be aimed at the currency which will be the base of the capitulation. Attacking the 7.8 will break local bank and looks imminent as markets receive the USD via safe haven flows. Example:
After the technical break of the resistance the swing formation seems to be self fulfilling. So, according to the plan we attacked immediately and that is now clear in the outflows by...
If you wish to undermine democracy; you tend to try to blow up the foundations of capitalism. The natural restructuring of markets will always follow automatically and hence it is only a matter of time before we see 7.80 and Turkish banks capitulating. After Erdogan, the IMF bailouts will have different possibilities. Turkey's plan can be seen at its clearest now that fears of coronavirus have coupled alongside the Saudi / Russia oil action. Remember, Turkey is an importer of Oil ... so with Oil now flirting with a break towards $20 (see diagram) the logical development will be to destroy the highs in USDTRY.
Very simple. Continue to work longs on the first dip you see. Thanks as usual for keeping the likes and comments coming, jump into the discussion with your views on TRY!
Lira
USDTRY map: down then huge up then collapseUSDTRY could dip now into 5.45 area to complete small wave X (white label).
Then the final move up with wave Y in larger degree X could emerge, which could tag former top of 7.0830.
After that the large Y to unfold down to retest the bottom of the entire consolidation at 5.1300
Emerging markets taking a poundingWhile the emotional crowded is full focussed on the S&P, CoronaVirus, Crypto, "exotic" currencies are all dropping hard.
Economic slowdown ==> The poor end up in the street first.
Turkish people really hate it when I call their country a third world country. They are in denial poor guys, and have been for decades.
Just the way it is not my fault. Parts of europe are too, greece, portugal african country at this point, spain on its way, then the rest of europe. RIP.
The monthly chart is pretty clear... It would be pretty nice to get a retrace I only do reversals.
I think I understand how going with the trend is, it is much much more forgiving but you very often get small reward to risk.
This is not financial advice but it's looking like it is just going to continue and continue and continue.
If you long this pair there is big interest against you... Kinda ruins it I feel.
In the short term there may be some explosive moves to buy, idk...
I guess I was right the first time:
Other ones
I bet when normies / plebes start hearing of those, or seeing how much they moved they'll get all excited and there will be an assault of legions of reptilian brains and wild moves in random directions, but for now they are rather tame with normies focussed on coronafartinthewind, maybe still brexit a bit, crypto still, and "CO2 is a pollutant" joke of the millenia (Tesla in particular).
Real speculators want tame markets, predictable and calm (well volatile but not hysterical).
Losers chase the most emotional markets they heard about on the news.
I am here to make money, not to talk about the latest popular fad with my family or friends (don't have any).
Potential growth of USDTRY as waging war agains Syria1. Wait for breaking parallel channel or resistance line then take long
2. Wait till lower band of parallel channel and then take long
Turkey officially declare war against Syria. it could bring chaos to middle east. Russia also is defending Syria. Turkey threatened NATO to support otherwise it would open its borders and free Syrian refugee to flee to EU countries.Turkey did it and refugees had faced a very bad conflict with police of Bulgaria and Greece (EU Gate). Turkey is drowning as more than 45% of GDP made by external loan from international institution like IMF as an example. How could a country be independent while it has 433 Billion USD external load more than 45% of GDP!? President of Turkey Erdugan said we would not get any dollar from IMF as it would violate our foreign independence. After some months it appears Erdugan could not resist foreign pressure and wage war. If both sides of conflict could not reach an agreement that would be death and destruction. Erdugan could not rescue Turkey economy by doing this and corona virus could damage tourism earning so much so bye bye Lira! bye bye foreign real estate investors!
USA will use Turkey like a tissue and then throw it away.
History will repeat itself.
Turkish lira - correction !Turkish lira is near to its end, bow trading at 6.1096. Long term technical analysis shows corrections of this trend to S1 support level 5.9880, next target can be S2 level. This levels are calculating based on long term fibonacci retracement, also confirmation fo our analisys can be pattern wedge with trendlines T1-T2. Crossing of T1 will be a signal to sell USDTRY.
USDTRY AnalysisHey Traders,
I hope everyone is having a good time as the year is ending and new one is beginning soon; I saw this market or the dollar-Lira which the market has broken the resistance area and then retested, if the market holds above this level and the breakout turns to be real one, then the Lira is going up, my target is the second resistance area which the wig the market made 26th of Aug this year. however, if the breakout turns to be a fake breakout, then the market is gonna sell-off around 5.80 as my level of support, then the market will decide where to go then.
Here is the trade setup
Scenario 1: Long Trade Setup
USDTRY Buy at 5.93133
Stop Loss at 5.8960
Target Profit at 6.03960
If market movement is now fake and the current support area is broken, then the market would turn into short and here is the second scenario for it:
Scenario 2: Short Trade Setup
USDTRY Sell at 5.88000
Stop Loss at 5.9580
Target Profit at 5.8000
Good Luck and happy new year!
USDTRY is near Buy Zone!The price is near the Support/Resistance Zone.
We can open Buy if daily candle will close above.
Potential profit will be in 3...5 times bigger than risk.
Push like if you think this is a useful idea!
Before to trade my ideas make your own analyze.
Write your comments and questions here!
Thanks for your support!
EUR/TRY trend turning upwardSuddenly, the Turkish lira is experiencing accelerating weakness. EUR/TRY, for example, has been spinning higher lows and higher highs include this week's fresh breakout. These runs usually continue until some dramatic flourish with the Turkish lira losing a LOT within minutes. I won't be surprised to see a 10%+ move in the coming weeks. Note that those climactic moves are often fadeable.
Turkish Lira: Big Break Is Coming!Hello dear Forex friends, and welcome to this Turkish Lira analysis! ;)
A big break is coming for the USD/TRY, since we're tightening for 1 year after we had reached 7 Lira. Have fun watching! ;)
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USDTRY - LONG (Gradual)Our risk / reward ratio is 0.28 in the first field and 0.09 in the second field.
There was a close above 5.84.
Long positions can be tried in small lots.
However, losses can be a bit high since the bar cannot be sure without closing, so stoploss should be placed directly at 5.81 or 5.84.
Our sales level for the first area is 6.095.
If the first area breaks down, our sales level is 6.56.
TRYJPY Double Bottom FormingMaybe not the most popular trade idea given what is occurring with Turkey geopolitically, but a good set up nonetheless.
Been in a downtrend with multiple waves, and we hit a support/flip zone which can be seen by going further back or on the daily chart.
A double bottom indicates a possible exhaustion of the trend as no new lower lows have been made.
I am looking here for a break and close above the 18.54 zone but perhaps 18.60 is better since we take out the previous lower high.
19.10 zone would be the target if we get the break.