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Trade deadlock, Saudi tanker attacked, expert opinionsThe trade negotiations between the US and China are still at an impasse. The reason is - the Trump’s position, who accused China of violating the agreements. China, in turn, accused the United States of having provoked a negotiation crisis. Well, sum up there is a complete halt in the negotiation process, the expected counter-actions on the part of China and rather gloomy prospects for the world economy ahead. As for counter-action. China announced that it will increase duties on US goods in the amount of $ 60 billion. The Ministry of Finance of the People’s Republic of China issued a statement announcing that from June 1, 2019 duties on a number of American goods will be increased from 5% to 25 % Yuan naturally has dropped, reaching the lowest values against the dollar since December 27. According to analysts, this decline will not be limited and it is worth preparing for the assault on the mark of 7 yuan per dollar (the minimum value of the yuan since the global financial crisis). Yuan was not the only victim - stock indices declined steadily. In general, the conditions for Japanese yen and gold growth are more than favorable. So, we continue to recommend its buying. As for the US dollar, recently, any uncertainty of investors leads to its growth: the markets perceive the dollar as another variation of safe-haven assets. That is why a lot of managers of famous funds unanimously declare that the dollar is still the king in the foreign exchange market and its buying should be preferred. Moreover, the advice is buying it against the currencies of developing countries, for example, the Turkish lira, the Argentine peso, and the same Chinese yuan. It is simply to understand what is happening currently, the escalation of trade wars causes damage primarily to the economy of developing countries, therefore its currencies will be the first to take the brunt. Saudi tankers among 'sabotaged' ships off the UAE coast. Taking into account the already tense situation in the Middle East, the oil market reacted to this force majeure as a completely natural reaction in the form of price increases and oil. But the growth did not last long and the day closed with a “black candle”. We will keep up to date and continue to look for points for oil sales. By the end of Monday, our trading preferences have changed: we will look for points for buying the euro against the dollar, selling oil and the Russian ruble, as well as buying gold and the Japanese yen, but we will wait a little with Australian and Canadian dollars buying so far.
Long
by Trade24Fx
USDTRY - TCMB Meeting - Next Devaluation?In 15 minutes is Central Bank meeting in the Republic of Turkey! If the TCMB leaves the interest at 24% or possibly lowers it then threatens in my view, a rapid devaluation with new highs from the perspective of the USD / EUR or new lows from the perspective of Turkey. I have prepared the following Trading plan. If 5.9066 fall then new highs are very likely and I will try as well as possible to trade it. Greetings from Hanover, Lower Saxony, Germany Stefan Bode
Long
by StefanBode
3
Disaster cooking in Turkey=> For those who believe in the bearish Turkey story, we are in the early stages of a 5th wave which we mentioned in our previous ideas... it can be seen clearly here and shows how the floodgates for the highs are wide open. From a technical perspective the 5th wave target, the first major target is 7.85 (assuming wave 5 is a 1.00 ratio in length of wave 1). Given the nature of this rally so far there is a very large chance this can extend well beyond the initial targets as far as the 2.168 extension above the highs. It is also worth noting for those following EW that the 5th wave usually marks new highs... confidence in this view will increase above the 161.8% so for those wanting a less aggressive entry you can sit tight and watch closely and good luck to those wanting to pull the trigger early for the next few Quarters in 2019. This is going to be a monstrous move and worth tracking for those interested in watching the EM collapse continue.
Long
by ridethepig
15
May vs Parliament, lira fevers, and sales have dropped off in USMonday was a very busy day for financial markets. It was partly due to the processing of weekend news (May's statement on Brexit, the results of the elections in Turkey), partly with new news stories. But first things first. Brexit news. May’s attempt to hold the fourth vote in a row failed so far. Monday didn’t bring anything new to the current Brexit scenario. What do we have today? Postponement Brexit until May 22, the UK is not available. Now the country must either leave the EU on April 12 or request another delay. The second option is basic. But the timing of the delay - an indefinite value. As we warned it could be a year. However, you should not relax this week. May may still “push” the vote, early parliamentary elections are possible, May’s resignation and much more is possible. So you should be “careful” with the pound. Very volatile in recent days in pairs with Turkish lira. This time the outcome was the results of the municipal elections in Turkey. Erdogan and his coalition were defeated in elections in 40 out of 81 polling stations (previously controlled by 49 municipalities), and he has lost Ankara and Istanbul. The central bank of Turkey, meanwhile, literally “burns” its foreign exchange reserves to stabilize the lira. According to data published on Friday, Turkey’s reserves have decreased by one third over the past month (!). Yesterday’s macroeconomic statistics. The most important, perhaps, were the data on retail sales in the United States. They appeared worse than analysts' expectations and showed a decline for the month (-0.2% m / m with a forecast of + 0.2% m / m). That did not bother buyers of the dollar and it continue to strengthen. However, we recommend looking for points for selling dollar on the intraday basis. Consumer inflation in the Eurozone came out slightly below the expectations of experts. At the same time, the PMI index in the Eurozone production sector was also worse than forecasts and below 50 (47.5, with the forecast of 47.6). So, it is clearly premature to expect monetary policy tightening by the ECB. Oil continued its growth yesterday. It is worth noting that the first quarter of 2019 was the best for the oil market since 2002 - the asset after it rose by 32%. This once again confirms the current market sentiment. So we continue to recommend looking for points to buy an asset on the intraday basis. In addition, we are looking for points for buying gold on the intraday basis, selling the dollar and the Russian ruble.
by Trade24Fx
Impulsive move in play for USDTRY Here we are witnessing a very interesting move taking place for the Turkish financial system. After finishing a clear corrective ABC sequence since the August highs we are now in the early stages of an impulsive move to finish the more broader 5th wave in a very large sequence. For those tracking the updates in USDTRY in the previous charts (see attached: "Starting 5th wave looks imminent..") this is the move we have been waiting for over the last few months. Finally it is here, time to stick the knife in and cause maximum pain for Turkey. The fact that we are rallying in an impulsive manner means we are going to eventually crack 6 + and possibly even 7.80 Continuing to watch with interest, all positions are fully loaded here as has been the case for months. Time to sit on our hands and enjoy the moves. Thanks
Long
by ridethepig
TOPSY-TURVY TURKEY? $TURInteresting to note that despite the nice gains Turkish equities saw in January 2019 (+15.7%) to make up for December 2018 (-6.87%), the asset class has experienced some nasty losses in February (-3.63%) and March (-4.36% so far) - all of which are quickly eroding all YTD gains. Its the only EM market to have suffered such losses so far (rivaling that of South Africa). To add insult to injury, it appears that Turkish equities have had great difficult trying to break through its 50-Day EMA as well, indicating global equity investors are loosing faith in Turkish equities. To complicate matters even further, the Turkisk Lira (USD/TRY) has been down 3.46% against the US Dollar so far in 2019, putting further stress on the currency. In continuation from last year, it may mean that markets are trying to tell us something about the health of the Turkish economy for 2019. As global investors continue to shed Turkish assets throughout 2019, this is one space investors should be very wary of investing in over the next little while. We recommend caution against Turkish assets.
NASDAQ:TURShort
by EconomicsGlobal
TOPSY-TURVY TURKEY? $TUR $TRYUSDInteresting to note that despite the nice gains Turkish equities saw in January 2019 (+15.7%) to make up for December 2018 (-6.87%), the asset class has experienced some nasty losses in February (-3.63%) and March (-4.36% so far) - all of which are quickly eroding all YTD gains. Its the only EM market to have suffered such losses so far (rivaling that of South Africa). To add insult to injury, it appears that Turkish equities have had great difficult trying to break through its 50-Day EMA as well, indicating global equity investors are loosing faith in Turkish equities. To complicate matters even further, the Turkisk Lira (USD/TRY) has been down 3.46% against the US Dollar so far in 2019, putting further stress on the currency. In continuation from last year, it may mean that markets are trying to tell us something about the health of the Turkish economy for 2019. As global investors continue to shed Turkish assets throughout 2019, this is one space investors should be very wary of investing in over the next little while. We recommend caution against Turkish assets.
Short
by EconomicsGlobal
7.80 in the crosshairs..=> For those who believe in the bearish Turkey story, yet again we are at significant value areas for USDTRY longs. The 5th wave we mentioned in our previous idea can be seen clearly here and shows how the floodgates for 7.80 are wide open. => From a technical perspective the 5th wave target, the first major target is 6.78 (assuming wave 5 is a 1.00 ratio in length of wave 1). => Given the nature of this rally so far there is a very large chance this can extend well beyond the initial targets as far as the 2.168 extension at 7.80. => It is also worth noting for those following EW that the 5th wave usually marks new highs... confidence in this view will increase above 5.60 so for those wanting a less aggressive entry you can sit tight and watch closely and good luck to those wanting to pull the trigger early for the move of 2019. => This is going to be a monstrous move and worth tracking for those interested in watching the EM collapse continue.
Long
by ridethepig
10