What's next for the Turkish Lira?This is just an experimental analysis.
NFA
Target 1 : 14,0 - 15,0
Target 2 : 19,0 - 20,0
Targer 3: 24
Lirasi
One time Hell 🔥 - Two times Paradise 🏝️💼Hello Traders,
I'd like to take a moment to discuss a rather peculiar scenario unfolding in the world of Forex, centered on the Turkish Lira (TRY). It's a tale of two paradises – a seeming conundrum where what seems like a hardship for one can be a fortune for another.
🔥 Hell for Turkish people:
Firstly, let's understand the current state of Turkey's economy. With ongoing economic uncertainty under President Erdogan, it's a trying time for the Turkish population. The economic policies, coupled with steep inflation rates and the devaluation of the Turkish Lira, are causing a significant amount of strife for locals. In other words, it's a tough environment for the average Turkish citizen - a kind of 'economic hell', if you will.
💼 Paradise for Forex Brokers
On the flip side, the very turmoil that's causing despair for the Turkish people is creating a unique set of opportunities for Forex brokers. The Lira's volatility is attracting an increasing number of traders, drawn by the promise of high risk, high reward scenarios. Yet, the Forex market is a fickle beast, and as we see the Lira begin to trade sideways, the profits expected by these traders could be replaced by hefty commission fees, effectively creating a 'broker paradise' of sorts. Not for traders..for brokers!
🏝️ Paradise for Erdogan's Tourist season
The second 'paradise' situation can be found in Turkey's tourism industry. Despite the economic challenges, or rather because of them, Turkey will see a surge in foreign tourists. The weakened Lira makes it an affordable destination for many, boosting the local tourism sector. Cheap currency, while problematic domestically, can be a tourist's paradise, offering them more bang for their buck. Especially for Russians, who currently are treated as 'blocked' citizens for European countries. Erdogan must be very happy with a cheap Lira this summer. he will make his moves towards the end of the summer, trust me on this one.
🛑 Don't trade TRY this period
So what does this mean for us as traders? It serves as a reminder that markets are multifaceted and that the factors influencing them are interwoven in complex ways. Although the TRY might be attractive due to its high volatility, remember that trading in such conditions can be risky. In the short term, we might see the TRY continue to trade sideways, meaning that the cost of trading might outweigh the benefits. I am already out of my TRY Trades for this reason.
Remember, trading is about understanding the dynamics of the market and adapting your strategies accordingly. Stay safe, stay informed, and trade wisely.
Note: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions. Mine is to sit out this summer and go Long on Turkish lira after the tourist season.
👑President Erdogan, you might just be a Forex genius - although I can't say for sure. It still does not look healthy at all 🔥
Good luck and happy trading!
the FXPROFESSOR
EUR/TRY LOOKING BEARISH, THIS IS WHYI am aware of the current geopolitical problems in the world and especially in Turkey.
Also the economy of Turkey has had a very hard time.
In 2023 there seem to be re-elections. Maybe if they get rid of Erdogan there can be a future.
Also 2023 is like the holy grail year for the Turks because they can "pump the oil out of the ground", because of a so called 100-year contract ending.
Anyhow, returning to the chart what I see is a double top and a breakout downward from a parabolic move.
I would be comfortable to buy some Turkish Lira at these levels, looking at those signs and the current risk level.
EURTRY time to SELL Fundamentally, Turkey is important to stay in NATO , close to EU, supported by Germans, invested heavily in by Europeans and others.
Negotiations with Greece will commence (starting in 2 weeks) and after all Turkey has nothing to lose and lot to gain from East Mediterranean Natural gas resources.
Take this from a Greek like me, emotions are not good when you trade.
Technically, EURTRY looks bearish on the charts too. The 9.00 mark acts as a strong rounded-number resistance level.
Peace and prosperity to all and good trding wishes to our friends and followers
