BTC dump = LTCBTC breakoutWith the recent BTC rally this combo predictably deflated over the past 1-2 weeks. Looks like we've finally bottomed out + BTC/USD just broke support in a descending triangle and is starting to fall with the BCC/hard fork FUD Aug 1. This means our resilient friend Litecoin can finally do some heavy lifting and this combo can rise. Great long opportunity once we confirm breakout. Key here is to keep an eye on bitcoin price action, when we see a reversal in BTC would be time to close position/dump LTC. Price target ~.018 but im bullish on it before Aug 1
Litecoinbitcoin
LTC/BTC OutlookHello Traders,
We hope you had a nice weekend. Today we have a very short outlook for the LTC/BTC. It makes higher highs and higher lows but it spiked down very hard last week.
If you didnt bought at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement then its probably too late as it already spiked down. We could be eventually looking at higher prices so lets see.
Always use a stop-loss while trading and never risk more than 0.5% from your account. Otherwise you will lose your account.
Cheers
LTC likely to adjust above $50 by end of JulyLooking at our chart (1 day Candles) we can see that there has been a break in our uptrend. I anticipate some drops coming up, but I expect LTC to ride our 2/1 Gann line (has been consistent with this support and resistance) to $50+ by the end of July. I think that the absolute lowest drop we are still susceptible to is at the $36 level, but I see it being highly unlikely. I expect some dips into the lower 40's (where we have a new support line at $40), maybe high 30's but generally expect to see an uptrend for the next month. Will keep updating over the next couple weeks. We're all hodlers anyways ;)
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Consolidation period, what's next???Upon looking at our 2h candlesticks you can see we have entered a consolidation period. Bears and Bulls can't decide which way to push price. What we are going to look for next is bullish or bearish confirmation, that is, a deviation from the consolidation trend, this confirmation will be the indicator on where price is going to go. (The tall wicks on top and bottom and small bodied candlesticks represent the consolidation). We are heading for some resistance at the $49.30 level on our Fibb retracement so that could potentially be trouble, but not necessarily. Hopefully we see a gap-up bullish candlestick, which will signify an uptrend. I Will keep updating as this develops.
LARGE rise in Litecoin likely this weekWe can see our price is developing a bullish flag pattern, the flag is the downward sloping consolidation area, this is a potential signal for a large uptrend, this is multiplied by the fact that price is about to hit support on our 1/1 Gann line. As if all of this is not convincing enough, Bitstamp is set to launch litecoin tomorrow and we may even see Lightning network implemented with it. This news, plus our indicators could blast the price very high. Im thinking well over the $55 level depending on LN, but we shall see. Stay tuned, will update this throughout the week, which I am excited for!
Golden cross, and support on the way for LTC/BTCWe may see a nice uptrend for Litecoin/Bitcoin price. We can see the 20W MA has crossed the 50W MA, known as a golden cross, this is a strong indicator for an uptrend. We can also see support coming at the 2/1 Gann line. With bitstamp around the corner we may see Lite coin get very close or even surpass its ATH versus BTC, not with some resistance, however, I expect a test around the 0.0117 level.
What to expect with launch of Bitstamp* Disclaimer * This is merely my speculation and opinion, I personally do not think TA is very effective in predicting big news. I am simply analyzing a past event similar to what is to come in order to present a possibility of what to expect. * Disclaimer *
I am analyzing the Coinbase launch in order to gain an idea of what we might be able to see here as Litecoin rolls out onto Bitstamp this week.
First off, Coinbase has 7.5 million users (According to website), we'll assume there was roughly 6.5 million at the time of Litecoin launch. Bitstamp currently has 700,000 users according to their site. Here we can see that Coinbase was roughly 9 times larger on May 3rd (time of litecoin launch) than Bitstamp is at the time of litecoin launch. I will use a ROUGH scale of 9:1 when comparing possible price levels of coinbase LTC launch and potential bitstamp launch price. Basically I will scale down all of my predictions by a factor of 9. And once again this is totally speculation, it is very hard to analyze the outcome of news, I am merely using historically similar data in order to derive a hypothesis.
First of all I have setup a FIB retracement from the day of launch to the peak it reached in the first half of the month. The retracement begins at a price of $15.16 and rises to ~$33. We can see that our retracement shows some nice support and resistance that is consistent with the trend. On its way up, the price of litecoin hit resistance at $26 which was 171% of its price level, it then fell about 8% and hit the resistance level at $24 before going up 16%. This trend continued until it hit its peak at $33 level. We can see the the largest price increase happened in the first 3 days of launch, this is where the steepest uptrend is and where volume increased the most. The uptrend then tapers off and continues to increase, but not without resistance on its way up.
What could this mean for Bitstamp??
Well first of all, if history repeats itself we could see a ~20% increase in price in the first three days of launch (171% / 9). I divided it by nine because of the factor mentioned in the beginning. The added volume that Bitstamp will bring will be far smaller than that of Coinbase, therefore they won't be able to influence price as drastically. So this 20% increase could put us at roughly the $36 -$42 in the first three days of launch. At this peak it will likely hit some resistance before rising a bit more to $39-$47 level. So if this trend does take action then it would be wise to hold long positions after the first dip after the initial rise because more gains are likely to come.
So basically we could be seeing something in the low $40 range in the first couple weeks of Bitstamp launch IF this trend repeats itself. Again this is news so there are a million factors to consider, but I hope this can provide some insight into the price level we might be able to expect and the trend that it will take. I could go much more in depth with some other indicators, but this paints the general idea I want to display well enough. I wanted to make this sort of as a fun depiction of what may be to come and to stimulate some discussions and what everyone else thinks, so comment and let me know what you guys think!
One of the last LTC entry points for awhileHere we can see that we are potentially hitting one of the last, if not the last solid entry points for a long position with the Bitstamp launch coming next week. Here we can clearly see with the 20W and 50W MA's that our price is heading for the over-sold position, which lays ground for a bullish reversal. This idea is strengthened by the fact that we are literally about to hit our 3/1 Gann Line AND some support at the $28.40~$28.80 level as shown by the yellow line. On top of all of this our stochastic is about to hit the bottom threshold, which even further signals a reversal. There is just too many signs indicating a significant up trend to ignore so hop in right away. As of late you can see we are in a sort of consolidation period if you will (seen with the spinning tops and large wicks), we can observe what sort of confirmation we get this weekend and make our prediction on the future trend. We also have news of some big pumps upcoming so we should see some BIG action from Litecoin this upcoming week so fasten your seat belts and get ready to see some gains!
Continuation of previous two week analysisI posted before this about "a week or two in advance for Litecoin" and I am just following up here quickly (I still don't know how to add this to my previous post) with some recent developments and predictions. So we can see that my previous prediction about testing the $31 resistance was correct as we can see it tested it and is dipping a little. Here we can see a potential consolidation period as you can tell with all of the wicks and spinning tops, so we will be looking for bearish of bullish confirmation once this consolidation period ends and we can make our move from there. This move should go either the green route or yellow route depending on what sort of confirmation we see. This could provide another good entry point if we see bearish confirmation where it would likely drop to the $28.80 support level and then back up into next week where it was announced Bitstamp will launch LTC. Here we should ideally see a nice spike into $40+. We also got a nice little snippet of news today that the creator of LTC, Charlie Lee has left Coinbase in order to focus on Litecoin full time! MOON!
*Check my previous post in order to gain a little bit more context of what is going on here :)
LTCUSD 15m - Formation of Bull Wave 3?LTCUSD is trying to pull itself out of it's slump since SegWit activation, a likely case of "sell the news", and there are some interesting wave patterns that are developing across several time intervals.
Ichimoku Cloud indicator on 5m interval shows that LTC needs to pull itself back up to retest the $30.39 (32.8% retracement from pre-SegWit high) in order to continue this bullish sentiment. Stoch RSI needs a recharge, but RSI shows plenty of buy potential; so the price may stagnate here for a few while Stoch resets itself.
The pictured 15m interval is showing the possible formation of a third major bull wave. If successful price should retest (and likely surpass) the $30.39 resistance level, and go beyond to test the $32.00 resistance level (50% retracement). If the bullish sentiment fizzles out, then we will likely see a retest of the $28.36 (23.6% retracement) support level.
I have hopes that LTC will rebound and go to test new highs in the coming days.
LTC setup next few days, will I get rekt? O_oRight now LTC is in a pretty interesting place. With Segregated Witness support at the strongest its ever been, 82%, it looks like it might be implemented on LTC within the next month.
So, with this in mind, I think LTC looks good over the next few weeks. However, I think a correction still needs to happen, as I feel the price is still a bit inflated from the last pump. In my opinion, the price might head up to the top of the triangle, at around 0.0098 BTC, and then find resistance, sending it down to about 0.0085 BTC. At this point, I think another strong bull run is coming.
Plans:
I've bought in half at 0.0094 BTC, I don't plan to short that, in case the price doesn't correct and keeps heading upwards. I plan to buy in the other half should LTC correct to 0.0085 BTC, and hold that for a while and see how SegWit affects price.
GLHF will be posting updates