ELI LILLY Always a solid buy below its 1D MA50.Eli Lilly (LLY) broke on Friday below its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since August 09. As the stock trades within a long-term Channel Up since the March 01 2023 bottom, every time the price was below the 1D MA50, it didn't stay for long, thus providing the most effective buy entry.
Even though it could dip some more as with July's decline (only such case though out of 6 corrections), as long as the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) holds, we expect the Channel Up to be extended.
The initial Higher Highs were closer to the 1.5 Fibonacci Channel extension, the last one however was exactly on the 1.0 Fib. As a result, we will take a more conservative Target on that trend-line, thus turning bullish now and aiming at $1100 by the end of the year.
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Llysignals
ELI LILLY Recovered all losses from its High! What's next?Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) posted a miraculous bullish reversal in the past 2 weeks, recovering yesterday all of the losses of the brutal correction since its July 15 All Time High. Having rebounded on its 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) while the 1D RSI touched the 30.00 oversold barrier for the first time since February 28 2023, we can claim that LLY's Channel Up now sets eyes for its next Higher High.
This pattern is best illustrated with the use of the Fibonacci Channel levels. After initially holding the 1.0 Fib as Resistance, the 'ceiling' is now the 1.5 Fib extension, basically has been since September 12 2023.
The interesting parameter of this pattern is that every approximately +35.00 to +40.00% rise, the price pulls back or turns sideways (red arc pattern) until it eventually hits the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
As the stock completes a +35% rise from the bottom, a little above the 1000 mark, we expect it to turn sideways at best. The target after that is $1200, exactly on the 1.0 Fibonacci level, which is still a modest one, considering that the ceiling is now the 1.5 Fib extension, as discussed above.
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ELI LILLY Entering consolidation phase. Wait for the buy signal.Last time we looked at Eli Lilly (LLY) was on March 18 (see chart below) and we got the most out of it as we entered after a 1D MA50 correction and got the most optimal value:
Our original target was $1050 calculated according to the % rise of each previous Bullish Leg (+45%) of the +1 year Channel Up but now it appears that the stock won't hit that level during this Leg as we are entering the bottom phase of the Sine Wave.
As you can see on the chart (now on the 1W time-frame), this is where LLY typically pulls-back and consolidates (red Rectangle) until the next Bullish Leg begins near the 1D MA100 (red trend-line).
As a result, we are closing our bottom buy position and turn neutral on LLY until we approach the 1D MA100 again, starting mid-August.
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ELI LILLY Going to $1050 but after a 1D MA50 correction.Eli Lilly (LLY) has basically turned sideways since the February 16 High. The dominant pattern is a Channel Up since the March 07 2023 Low and can be divided into 3 Bullish Waves that delivered rallies between +45% and +52%. Every time the price hit the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), it was a buy opportunity.
The 1D RSI in particular has a Buy Zone, which coincided with all those dip buy opportunities within the Channel Up. As a result, since the stock has already completed a +45% rise from the October 31 2023 Low, we do expect a pull-back to start soon towards the RSI Buy Zone, but only after it rises a little again and forms a Lower High on the RSI, which would be consistent with the previous top formation on the Channel Up.
In any case, at any point the RSI hits its Buy Zone, we will position ourselves with a long and aim for a new +45% rise. Rough target from the current projection is $1050. Notice how efficiently the peak and bottom formations are caught by the Sine Waves. A very symmetric pattern for the long-term indeed.
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ELI LILLY targeting $705.00 if the 1D MA100 holds.Eli Lilly (LLY) has been on an incredible run ever since our March 01 buy signal (see chart below) that even broke above Channel Up:
We have been strong supporters of the company's fundamentals and those are translated into strong technical bullish patters, offering solid buy opportunities. Another such opportunity exists now as the price is trading around the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) near the bottom of the 2023 Channel Up.
As long as the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), which is exactly on the Channel's bottom, holds, we remain bullish, targeting the 2.382 Fibonacci extension (similar to the May 22 High) at $705.00. If the 1D MA100 breaks though, we will take the loss and sell instead targeting the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) at $500.00 where a stronger buy opportunity exists.
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ELI LILLY Our gem on the verge of making a paradigm shift.Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) has long been one of our best investments a real gem that even withstood and was practically unaffected by the 2022 inflation crisis. For long we have been using the Fibonacci Channel to display LLY's parabolic nature having broken above the 2.0 Fibonacci extension last May.
This time the price reversed much quicker than technically expected and is attempting again to break the top (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Channel Up that started in 2020. If it closes above it, then we wil target the 3.0 Fibonacci Channel extension at $700. If it gets rejected and stays within the Channel Up, we will sell and target the recent Support at $520.
Note that a break above this 3-year Channel Up may constitute a paradigm shift as the stock has never hit a new upper Fibonacci level that quickly (remember it broke above the 2.0 Fib just 5 months ago). This can transcend LLY into an even more aggressive bullish nature that we can't yet quantify.
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ELI LILLY Hit the top of the 4-year Channel. Relief sell-off?Earlier this year we gave a strong buy signal on Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) on March 01 (see chart below) where we called for the most optimal buy entry exactly at the bottom of the bullish pattern:
The price has now hit (last week) the top of the 4 year logarithmic Channel Up, highly overbought with the RSI on the 1W time-frame reaching 84.30, breaking above the August 16 2021 High. As last week's 1W candle closed in red (the first after 5 straight bullish weeks) this is considered so far a Higher Highs rejection and calls for an early sell signals towards the end of October, targeting the 1D MA100 (red trend-line) at $500.00, where the stock will start turning into a buy opportunity again (assuming the RSI is below 55.00).
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ELI LILLY Approaching the top of the Channel. Sell opportunity.Last time we looked at Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) was on March 01 (see chart below) where we called for the most optimal buy entry exactly at the bottom of the bullish pattern:
The price is now approaching the top of the 3 year logarithmic Channel Up, highly overbought with the RSI on the 1W time-frame at 80.00. This gradually calls for a sell towards the end of August, targeting the 1D MA100 (red trend-line) at $480.00, where the stock will turn into a buy opportunity again.
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ELI LILLY on the best buy opportunity of the year!Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) has been trading within a Channel Up pattern since the October 30 2020 low exactly on the 1W MA100 (red trend-line). As the 1D RSI turned oversold below the 30.00 barrier, while the price touched the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Channel Up, it has filled all conditions for the most optimal buy level of the year. There have been another three similar oversold events, each on one year since 2020.
Once the price breaks above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) again, which you can use as confirmation and take the buy after it, we'll set a target at $390.00 on a 4 month horizon.
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