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Lockhart

DXY/ USDJPY - FED LOCKHART & KASHKARI SPEECH HIGHLIGHTSShort USD positioning: Long GBPUSD and short USDJPY - Sterling re-balancing higher (attached), no fed hike likely thus 20% priced in needs to be faded out in USD downside. Further, my bets are any real BOJ action doesnt happen (e.g. depo/ lsp cut or QE) - All JPY STIR markets are infact pricing hikes, there isnt any level of cuts priced (Libor, Tibor, Euroyen). US election broad USD risk and the USD is in a no win situation for Brainards speech (e.g. hawkish and Yen risk-off demand weighs on $yen - dovish and USD rate hike hopes priced at 20% deprice USD lower) thus USDJPY is the best lower-risk expression for this view pre/post speech. I continue to keep short SPX too. DXY imo will move towards 92. Fed Lockhart Highlights: Fed's Lockhart: Data Supports 'Serious' Rate Rise Discussion At FOMC Lockhart: Won't Say When He Favors Next Increase in Fed Target Rate Lockhart: Economy's Performance Suggest Fed Will Meet Goals in Medium Term Lockhart: Economy Expanding At 'Moderate' Pace, 2016 GDP Likely 2% Lockhart: Job Growth Continuing, Slowdown in Pace of New Hires Not Surprising Lockhart: Still Expects Inflation to Rise, But Recent Progress Has Stalled Lockhart: Second-Half U.S. Growth Likely to Pick Up From First Half Lockhart: Job Market Still Moving Toward Full Employment Lockhart: Economy 'Chugging Along, Not Stalling Out' Lockhart: Inflation Expectations Stable, Well Anchored Lockhart: Inflation Should Rise When Full Employment Met Fed's Lockhart: No Urgency to Raise Rates Right Now Lockhart: Financial Stability Risks Don't Require Rate Rise Lockhart: Fed Not Being Led Around By Markets Lockhart: Isn't Worried Market Rate View Out of Whack With Fed Officials Lockhart: Market View Won't Stop Fed From Acting on Rates Lockhart: Financial System Much More Resilient to Shocks Lockhart: 'Time Will Tell' If Fed to Further Mark Down Long Run Fed Rate Lockhart: Not 'Embarrassed' By Fed Dot Plots Lockhart: Won't Comment on Trump Criticism of Fed Fed Kashkari Highlights: Fed's Kashkari Highlights Causes for Tepid Post-Crisis Economic Growth in Paper Kashkari Explores Solutions Like Increased Government Spending, Immigration Reform Fed's Kashkari Highlights Causes for Tepid Post-Crisis Economic Growth Fed's Kashkari: No 'Huge Urgency' to 'Do Anything'
TVC:DXYShort
by QuantumLogicTrading
DXY/ USD: FED LOCKHART, MESTER & BULLARD SPEECH HIGHLIGHTSFed Lockhart Speech Highlights: Lockhart: Tepid Business Investment Plans Raise Questions About Growth Lockhart: Uncertainty A Real Factor For Economy Right Now Lockhart: Fed Rate Policy Will Be 'Cautious And Gradual' Lockhart: 'No Gun To Our Head' To Raise Rates Quickly Lockhart: Two Rate Rises Remain Possible, One Likely This Year Fed's Lockhart: There's Some 'Haze' Around Economic Outlook Lockhart: Doesn't See Major Bubble Risks Right Now Lockhart: Brexit Related Risks Seem To 'Have Settled Down' Lockhart: One Rate Rise This Year Likely 'Would Be Appropriate' Fed's Lockhart: 2Q GDP Data Misleading Read On Economy Fed Mester: Mester: Economy Should Pick Up Over Second Half Of Year Mester: Timing Isn't Key Issue For Rate Rises Mester: Gradual Upward Path For Rates Remains Appropriate Mester: Every Fed Meeting Is A Live Meeting Fed's Mester: Economy Is 'On A Good Track' Fed Bullard: Bullard: Fed Has 'Quite A Bit Of Firepower' Right Now If Needed Bullard: Negative Rates Not Likely For US Bullard: Fed Doing 'Pretty Well' On Its Job, Inflation Mandate Fed's Bullard: Dot Plot Not Telling Rate Story About Rate Outlook Bullard: What Fed Up Activists Seeking Is 'Kind Of Crazy' Bullard: Monetary Policy Has Been 'Doing Pretty Well' Bullard: Inflation Is Not Far From Fed's Target Bullard: Fed Hurting Credibility With Bad Guidance On Rates Bullard: Understands Financial Risks Could Get Away From Fed Bullard: Fed Will Need To Use Judgment On Bubble Issues Bullard: Fed Should Not Be On Cusp Of A Bunch Of Rate Hikes Bullard: Ideal For Fed To Raise Rates On Good News Fed's Bullard: 'Agnostic' About When Fed Should Raise Rates Bullard: Doesn't See Asset Bubbles Right Now
TVC:DXY
by QuantumLogicTrading
DXY/ USD: FED LOCKHART SPEECH HIGHLIGHTSFed Lockhart was cautious on the margin stating one rate hike in 2016 only "could" be appropriate rather than should which echoed the sentiment of the earlier Fed Dudley speech which was alot more hawkish imo. This has helped the USD back off its Dudley induced gain, and refocus on the CPI miss as Lockhart reminded the market that " Some Signs Election Uncertainty Slowing Economy" and " 'Not Locked In' To Any Particular Monetary Policy Outlook Right Now" given the data uncertainty which continue to be the two biggest factors for the USD and future hikes going forward. Fed funds currently imply an p18% sept hike, up from 9% yesterday though - where i expect this to come down still into days end as CPI miss is priced and Fed Dudleys sentiment is faded with th ereal hard data left in traders minds (bearish). This in mind I continue to be bullish AUD with a 0.78 target (apprx 100pips). Fed Lockhart speech highlights: Fed's Lockhart: One More Rate Rise In 2016 'Could Be Appropriate' Lockhart: 'Not Locked In' To Any Particular Monetary Policy Outlook Right Now Lockhart: Optimistic About Outlook, Views 2Q Gdp With Caution Lockhart: Economy's Underlying Fundamentals Remain Healthy Lockhart: Indications 3Q Growth Fixing For A Rebound Lockhart: Doesn't Believe Economic Momentum Has Stalled Lockhart: 2% Growth Environment Now Looks More Likely Lockhart: Uncertainty An Issue For The Economy Lockhart: Economy Closing In On Full Employment, Wage Gains Rising Lockhart: Will Achieve 2% Price Target By End Of 2017 Fed's Lockhart: Some Signs Election Uncertainty Slowing Economy Lockhart: Auto Sales Have Been Going 'Gangbusters' Lockhart: Even at Full Employment, Economy Still Has Labor to Draw On
TVC:DXYShort
by QuantumLogicTrading