Lockheed Martin... We are moving! Pt.2Just like I drew it up, NYSE:LMT is approaching its Fair Value Gap faster and faster. With the defense spending kept in the public eye, investors seem bullish on Lockheed as reflected from its rise in share price. This rise in price also is reflected from Lockheed's competitors in the industry such as NYSE:NOC , NASDAQ:HON , NYSE:RTX , and other defense contractors such as NYSE:BA , NYSE:HII , and of course $NYSE:GD.
Before we attack the charts, let's review the general sentiment in the arms and defense (or offense) industry. Firstly, we are faced with constant uncertainty in the middle east and eastern Europe. With the conflict between Israel and Palestine, there is no doubt that any flare ups and scares will include U.S. involvement prompting higher revenues for defense industry leaders. As for the eastern European conflict between Russia and Ukraine, what appears to be a ceasefire closing in, there is no doubt that tensions and conflicts will continue through the region which we can expect the defense sector to be involved in. In a simpler sense, as conflict rises, investor interest in the defense sector can be expected to surge.
In the case of peace, we can expect the general indices to rise, but should expect some shedding from the defense industry as their services will be in lower demand . The good news in that scenario is a diversion of a larger scale war (which I'm sure your willing to take a 6% dive on your positions). So, if you are to believe that a peace and/or ceasefire will come of the negotiations, remaining long on this position is just not for you.
As for the current trade itself, I'll first review my main long entry and plans. My first post for this trade was on Feb. 11, 2025. Since then, it has returned an impressive 5.52% (even considering its very low 1y Beta). Even more impressive is the performance of the SP:SPX , TVC:NDQ , TVC:DJI , which have been -4.90%, -6.82%, -3.99% respectively. So in this instance, outperforming the main indices was a literal walk in the park as yours truly spelled the lottery ticket out for you.
And now for the charts....
Here is the NYSE:LMT 1D chart looking back into 2019. We can note the strong trendline, a price action rising towards the 200 EMA, and of course out beloved Fair Value Gap which has yet to see any price action although we are approaching it. As for the good news, the price action approaching two major technical factors which are in the same place at the same time (these being the 200 EMA and our beloved FVG). Ideally, we will hit these two technical targets prior to the next quarterly financial report on April 22.
Hopefully this update helped clear up any uncertainty. This position has been quite participating for anyone who took my trade and I'm glad to see us well into the green especially in times of market turmoil (no matter how minor it is). If you recall, I mentioned that I would be early to this trade (which I was) but I would have no problem with selling into the gain even if it shows no sign of slowing down. The poor man never takes profits.
Lockheed
Lockheed Martin | LMT | Long at $472.00Lockheed Martin $NYSE:LMT. The war machine keeps turning... while there may some temporary "peace" with the new Trump administration, it is just never (unfortunately) permanent.
The price has entered my historical simple moving average area. If there is a bounce, I expect it to be between the current price of $466.00 and $450.00. I've started a small position at $472.00 and will grab more shares if it hits $450. Now, if the aerospace and defensive industry goes through a downtrend with the new presidential administration, I expect the price to fill the daily price gap near the low $400s - which is only an even better bargain, in my opinion.
Target #1 = $500.00
Target #2 = $535.00
Target #3 = $610.00
LMT -Lockheed Martin Corporation - bullishAccording to market behaviour, LMT has been rising sharply on the one hour, five hours, daily, weekly, and monthly charts. Technical analysis indicates that the next target will $256, and if it crosses that level and closes above successfully, the next target for the market will be $462.
Italian Translated:
Secondo il comportamento del mercato, l’LMT è in forte aumento sui grafici di un’ora, cinque ore, giornalieri, settimanali e mensili. L’analisi tecnica indica che il prossimo obiettivo sarà di 256 dollari e, se supera quel livello e chiude con successo, il prossimo obiettivo per il mercato sarà di 462 dollari.
German Translated:
Dem Marktverhalten zufolge ist LMT auf den Ein-Stunden-, Fünf-Stunden-, Tages-, Wochen- und Monats-Charts stark gestiegen. Die technische Analyse deutet darauf hin, dass das nächste Ziel bei 256 US-Dollar liegt. Wenn es dieses Niveau überschreitet und erfolgreich darüber schließt, wird das nächste Marktziel bei 462 US-Dollar liegen.
Raytheon - A Potential Earnings Pump To WatchEveryone wants to get rich quick. Because getting rich quick means you:
a) Get rich
b) Quick
Then you can wear big ugly sunglasses, a crappy t-shirt, flipflops, sit on the beach, eat a lot of meat, drink a lot of alcohol, and be promiscuous with women.
This is the modern human's dream, right?
And so everyone loves to speculate on potential earnings pumps and dumps.
There really is more to aim for in life.
Raytheon is one of the U.S. Military Industrial Complex cornerstones and is more or less a weapons mill for the NATO proxy war in Ukraine, which is of note because of the recent escalations of the conflict and how it can affect the U.S. Petrodollar, and thus bonds, oil, gold, equities, everything.
DXY - The US Petrdollar And The "Prigozhin Coup" In Russia
Geopolitically, the conflict between China and the International Rules Based Order is heating up. The current edict is to "de-risk but not decouple" from China (notice they never say "from the Chinese Communist Party"?).
In mid-June CEO Hayes was quoted by the propaganda machines as stating that decoupling from China was pretty much impossible because of all the parts and components that are manufactured in the mainland.
What this means, if you ask me, is that going forward, certain companies are going to have a very hard time meeting their target EPS and revenue estimates.
Raytheon may very well be one of them, as foreshadowed by a salvo of sanctions the Xi Jinping administration placed on them and Lockheed Martin.
The situation in China is very volatile right now. The IRBO wants control of China when the CCP falls. Xi Jinping and the other nationalists want to make sure that outside forces do not steal the motherland.
And so one day soon, we may find that Xi has thrown away the CCP in the middle of the U.S. night, and the markets will have themselves a series of consecutive red days like we've all never seen before.
Xi can weaponize the crimes against humanity that the Party and the Jiang Zemin faction have committed in the persecution of Falun Gong that started on July 20, 1999, and use the truth to protect both himself and China.
Organ harvesting and genocide of a group of 100 million spiritual cultivators with upright faith is certainly enough of a weapon to handle all the threats the motherland can be facing.
So why do you care about this if you're trading Raytheon?
Because a basic principle of markets is they go up when big money is selling and go down when big money is buying.
Raytheon and other military companies ironically never really pumped following the QE recovery from the COVID pandemic dump.
It wasn't until the Ukraine War began that Raytheon finally ran the highs.
And then it retraced.
That kind of retrace is actually really bullish and what bulls should want to see if they want their $145 billion~ company to become a $1.4 trillion company.
But the problem with the theory is more manifest on the weekly charts:
31 weeks of ranging and no breakout is not bullish.
And yet, after taking lows, it continues to recover. The most notable price swing is the $105 to $92 leg that just occurred.
I feel that Raytheon has some fundamental hidden bearish divergences to it and this is why it has traded this way all along, with the ultimate purpose of selling a lot high, and then selling it all above the all time high.
This hidden divergence, I think, is that U.S.-based companies may find themselves cut off from the Chinese supply chain in the very near future.
Only to tip all the bulls on their backs like stranded turtles and then dump and dump and dump and dump and not come back.
So I believe that with the setup at hand, the catalyst is actually the July earnings.
But if you look back at previous earnings, Raytheon doesn't have major pumps. It can go a bit and then it will run after.
Implied volatility on options for the July 28 expiry are only 20%, slightly higher than the 17% average.
But before we get there, I expect we're going to see prices return to the $92-93 range and give the best buying opportunity.
The catalyst for this, I believe, will simply be market-wide correction, which I outline in the following two posts:
Nasdaq - The Great Bear Trap
And
SPX/ES - An Analysis Of The 'JPM Collar'
In summary, there will be a shakeout in equities that will probably not be long lived, even if it's violent.
And after that, things will make their final run up, many of which will set new highs or new 52W highs, etc.
What's left for the remainder of 2023 and the start of 2024 doesn't look like it's going to be very pleasant, to speak frankly.
So make sure if you see Raytheon at a new high, you don't go getting ahead of yourself, longing the top.
LMT Looks BULLISHWith earnings coming up lockheed martin remains bullish and seems to have broke toward the upside out of consolidation. My immediate PT was for it to close gap at least around 475 area.
If LMT has a great earnings this can possibly test next resistance at 480 as its still trading and trending up.
Trade Responsible,
#TradeTheWave 🏄🏽♂️🌊
LMT Lockheed Martin Options Ahead Of EarningsIf you haven`t bought LMT here:
Then analyzing the options chain of LMT Lockheed Martin prior to the earnings report this week, I would consider purchasing
Calls with a 515usd strike price and an expiration date of 2023-6-16, for a premium of approximately $5.85.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
I am interested to hear your thoughts on this strategy.
Lockheed Martin Corp - Still up over 30% in 2022On 7th March 2022, this company reached an all-time high of 479.99 USD. However, it struggled to move higher after that and started to exhibit choppy price action. Over the past few weeks, it formed a range within which it tends to move; this rectangle pattern spans between 429.32 USD and 449.58 USD. We will monitor the price action of LMT as we anticipate a breakout either to the upside or downside. If the breakout to the downside occurs, an interesting opportunity of shorting this stock may present itself as this stock is still up over 30% in 2022.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI, MACD, and Stochastic are bullish. However, the trend lacks momentum. Overall, the daily time frame is neutral.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 shows the setup for LMT with two alternative scenarios. A breakout above the short-term resistance will be bullish, while a breakout below the short-term support will be bearish.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
Stochastic, RSI, and MACD are all bearish. DM+ and DM- are bullish. Overall, the weekly time frame is slightly bearish.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
6/5/22 LMTLockheed Martin Corporation ( NYSE:LMT )
Sector: Electronic Technology (Aerospace & Defense)
Market Capitalization: 117.803B
Current Price: $442.69
Breakout price: $446.45
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $439.40-$426.40
Price Target: $474.40-$485.30 (3rd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 70-73d (3rd)
Contract of Interest: $LMT 9/16/22 445c
Trade price as of publish date: $21.35/contract
5 Defense stocks you might want to look at in WW3Here are 5 stocks that could profit from the Russia Ukraine Conflict!
Intro:
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict, which began on November 21, 2013, following the Ukrainian government's decision not to sign the association agreement between Ukraine and the European Union, is a diplomatic and military
conflict between Russia and Ukraine.17 The conflict was sparked by a series of large-scale demonstrations that led to the flight and subsequent removal of Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, who was replaced by Oleksandr
Turchynia.
Large-scale demonstrations then broke out and led on February 22, 2014 to the flight and subsequent removal of Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, who was replaced by Oleksandr Turchynov. A new government, led by Arseni
Yatsenyuk, is put in place.
In response, Crimea declared its independence and voted to join Russia, a move that was recognized by Russia, causing an international diplomatic crisis. Several other Ukrainian provinces with large Russian-speaking populations,
notably Donbass, experienced similar uprisings and in turn organized referendums on self-determination in order to separate themselves from the Ukrainian government in place. The later events led to the war in Donbass, with
Russia, the border country, being accused of providing military support to the insurgents by waging a hybrid war there.18,19
On July 17, 2014, a Malaysia Airlines flight carrying 298 passengers from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur was shot down in mid-air near the Russian border while flying over the Donbass. There were no survivors. The destruction of this
civilian plane amplifies the diplomatic crisis, the Ukrainian army and the pro-Russian separatists accusing each other.
On February 21, 2022, as part of the Russian-Ukrainian war of 2021-2022, in a televised address, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced Russian recognition of the independence of the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Lugansk
People's Republics and Russian armed forces invaded eastern Ukraine controlled by pro-Russian separatists.20,21 On February 23, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that he was going to invade the eastern part of Ukraine
and that he was going to take over from the pro-Russian separatists.
On February 23, President Vladimir Putin announced the launch of a military operation in Ukraine. During the night of 23 to 24 February, the Ukrainian territory was bombed and Russian troops invaded the Ukrainian territory.
Stocks that could grow during WW3:
Lockheed Martin NYSE:LMT
Lockheed Martin is the world's leading U.S. defense and security company. Like its main competitors, it designs and produces a variety of products in which electronics and technology play a key role. In 2008, 84% of the company's sales were to the U.S. government, with the remainder primarily to other states.5 In 2010, of the 45.8% of the company's sales that were to the U.S. government, 84% were to other countries. In 2010, $17.3 billion of the company's $45.8 billion in sales came from contracts signed with the U.S. government ($10.9 billion in defense, $6.6 billion in civilian). The company products a large amount of combat planes and other defense engines, its role in ww3 would be very important and we could see the company benefit from diverse defense contracts in the future.
Boeing NYSE:BA
Boeing (official name: The Boeing Company) is an American aircraft and aerospace manufacturer. Its headquarters are located in Chicago, Illinois and its largest plant in Everett, near Seattle, Washington. This aircraft manufacturer specializes in the design of civil and private aircraft, but also in military aeronautics, helicopters and satellites and launchers with its Boeing Defense, Space & Security division. In 2012, it ranked second in military equipment sales worldwide5,6. The company is engaged in a commercial war in aeronautics with its main competitor, the European group Airbus Commercial Aircraft.
Boeing could be a discounted opportunity. The company is now playing a significant role in responding to Russian aggression via its RC-135 reconnaissance plane. While the monitoring of forces to provide real-world analytics is the primary goal, these flyovers serve a secondary purpose: Let the Russian military forces know that the eyes of the world are on them. It may not be the ultimate deterrent, but anything to help the situation from devolving into bloodshed is a positive.
L3-Harris Tech NYSE:LHX
When dealing with defense stocks amid tensions that could spill over into armed conflict, the natural instinct is to consider weapons systems and defensive platforms. Certainly, L3Harris Technologies features a broad range of air, land and sea-based solutions — even solutions that extend into space and the digital realm. However, communications is also a key component of warfare. Without the ability to coordinate offensive or defensive actions, a nation’s military force will not be utilizing its resources in the most effective and efficient manner possible. Considering that Ukraine will be grossly outnumbered in a hot conflict with Russia, efficiency is absolutely critical. Of course, the Russians are not unaware of this serious potential vulnerability. Inevitably, one of their actions in case of an invasion will be to cut off supply routes and disrupt communication lines. Therefore, the Ukrainian government’s relatively recent cooperation agreement with Harris Global Communications, a subsidiary of L3Harris, is significant. Irrespective of whether or not an armed conflict occurs in the coming days, the relationship between L3Harris and Ukrainian forces should grow closer.
Northrop Grumann NYSE:NOC
The U.S. government has already shipped weapons systems to Ukraine and authorized its European partners to send their own shipments. Now, Ukrainian forces have even more resources with which to defend themselves. Given this dynamic, tensions may rise higher. That’s where Northrop Grumman could come into play with its MQ-4C Triton drone. Specializing in real-time intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance, the Triton can provide valuable information while keeping servicemembers away from harm.
United Tech - Raytheon Technologies NYSE:RTX
United Technologies Corporation (UTC) was an American multinational conglomerate headquartered in Farmington, Connecticut. It researched, developed, and manufactured products in numerous areas, including aircraft engines, aerospace systems, HVAC, elevators and escalators, fire and security, building automation, and industrial products, among others. UTC was also a large military contractor, getting about 10% of its revenue from the U.S. government. Gregory J. Hayes was the CEO and chairman. It merged with the Raytheon Company in April 2020 to form Raytheon Technologies. Raytheon has partnered with Lockheed on the Javelin Weapon System, the missile of the hour.
Marketed as an “anti-tank guided munition that can be carried and launched by a single person,” the Javelin offers serious implications for how the Ukrainians can defend themselves against a much larger enemy.
Credits to - xtekky -
2/13/22 LMTLockheed Martin Corporation ( NYSE:LMT )
Sector: Electronic Technology (Aerospace & Defense)
Market Capitalization: 107.893B
Current Price: $396.19
Breakout price: $396.00 (hold above)
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $384.80-$369.85
Price Target: $416.00-$420.00 (1st), $434.00-$442.00 (2nd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 103-110d (1st), 211-221d (2nd)
Contract of Interest: $LMT 6/17/22 400c, $LMT 9/16/22 400c
Trade price as of publish date: $19.40/contract, $25.30/contract
Go long LMTTrading in a channel with some healthy consolidation. 50 day SMA passed through 200 day SMA (Golden Cross)
Trading at a discount with only a 15 P/E ratio.
Fair Value Estimate from Morningstar: $436
Implied Upside from Last Close: 15%
Lockheed just landed a big sale to Switzerland of their F15 jets beating out Boeing
$LMT #LMT Relatively safe swing trade off hereLockheed Martin Looks like it be a good channel trade for a short swing, Trade it till it breaks, got a feeling it will break to the upside soon. Weekly chart looks like it's finding good support off the 150 MA and a break above the channel is very bullish.
Buy Lockheed (NYSE:LMT), Entry 361.30 SL 354.80,valid till 17JunLike other stocks (check out idea published on Boeing NYSE:BA by visiting our ideas) in Aerospace and Defense industry, LOCKHEED (NYSE:LMT) also has some path to move further up.
Coordinates are:-
Entry: 361.30
SL: 354.80
Target: trail the price
Valid till 17th June 2020