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LOGARITHMIC

Implications of this breakout for longterm BTC trendSo yes, BTC is apparently bullisher than I thought, at least short-term, because longterm I'm always a BTC uber bull :) But short-term, I had several reasons to think that a weekly capitulation bar was very likely: 1. Too much bullishness and optimism (contrarian indicator) 2. Number of daily transactions still below ATH (although now finally approaching ATH level), therefore metcalfe price not high enough 3. Crypto fear and greed index at or above 60 (alternative.me) 4. Weekly and 3d stoch RSI on overbought since ages 5. Drying up volume after a strong impulse move down in an ascending triangle 6. Bearmarkets in BTC like to end with a strong capitulation weekly bar on large volume And most importantly: 7. Cycles getting longer, meaning that the low we had in 2015 in January, would come a few months later, around April-May. But apparently, BTC does something else. That's why one has to love BTC. No matter how long you're in the market, BTC always makes you rethink your assumptions. That's why I was thinking, what implications would it have on the longterm BTC chart, if we'd enter the bullmarket now, the chances of which have increased a lot, especially if the weekly candle closes above 4600. I've drawn two scenarios: One where BTC slows down, every cycle until now was 574 days longer than the previous one. Of course, we don't have enough data points yet, but if we are to extrapolate this, we'd get the next ATH in July 2023 at around 200k. But it seems to me that this theory might be wrong, given that BTC wants to continue the bullmarket prematurely, thus, as fast as the last time, with no signs of slowing down. This would mean that the cycle duration would from now on stay more or less the same: 4 years, strictly governed by the halvings. In anticipation of the halvings, the price already starts to rise at least one year before the halvings, as it seems. Therefore we would get the next ATH at the end of 2021 already, but then not quite as high, "only" around 100k. So, as BTC appears faster and bullisher than I thought, what do you think, will the cycles get longer or not? Both could work out, although the faster breakout here would favor a bit the 2021 ATH version. But then again, the logic dictates that as bigger as something gets, the more "inertia" it should have. Guess we'll need new data points for 2019 :) Now, when is a good time to enter this market? I personally never enter a FOMO, especially not when all indicators are overbought. If indeed the weekly candles continue green and get above the 5k range, it will be good to enter when weekly stoch RSI gets oversold again, after a few strong dumpds, i.e. from 6500 to the 4000 range, provided the logarithmic resistance now acts as strong support. I've written a lot now, but this move here is fascinating, and therefore needs thinking and re-adjustments for the longterm BTC trend might be necessary. Neutral because I wanna see the weekly candle close first to be sure.
BNC:BLX
by SebastianofMoon
17
Amazing convergence of BTC supports points to a certain priceI noticed a crazy convergence of extremeley important supports, at a price range, that I think, will be the strongest support in this bearmarket. The first support being the weekly MA300. The second support being the longterm squareroot function trendline. The third support being the line connecting the 2013 ATH with the China dip. The last one comes from an idea by: Credit to him for noticing this interesting characteristics of BTC, which also held in the previous BTC bearmarkets for estimating the low. All these three extremely solid supports point to a price target of 2000-2500 USD. Somewhere in that range. I don't see it going below these supports for an extended period of time. If, then only very briefly with a very strong rebound.
BNC:BLXShort
by SebastianofMoon
6
BTC: Which logarithmic resistance will be the important one?There are two falling logarithmic resistances at play now, which could be important in the coming weeks for determining the reversal point. The one which is obtained by connecting the ATH top with the point where the last decline started at 6500. The other one being a not so steep one, connecting the previous smaller tops after ATH with 6500. I tend to think more and more that the steeper one will be the one where BTC will make the reversal. Reasons: 1. It will reach the steeper one sooner. Weekly stoch RSI has set up nicely to overbought, as I thought it would. It will be at almost 100 overbought after the next 2 weekly candles => Perfect setup for drop 2. LTC did a nice fake-breakout from the log resistance as in 2014, pretending to be super bullish and strong. These fake-breakouts are really dangerous and occur sometimes in crypto, especially in alts 3. The weekly bbands will be narrow enough for a drop already starting in march. 4. The drop starting in march with low in april would coincide better with the increased cycle duration of around 20%. I think we're a bit slower in this whole bull/bear cycle, the more btc grows, the slower it gets. A low in april would be 3 months later than in 2014/15, which would fit this theory. 5. he higher resistance is still quite high, at around 5000. BTC showed great weakness the last months, therefore I cannot believe that we'll see another 1000 USD pump. This would also put LTC too high, LTC would be at 70-90 USD, which would be too high before the drop imho. So this is my view, as always: I could be wrong. I just present what I'm thinking. We'll see soon when BTC nears the first logarithmic resistance, how it behaves, and then we can act accordingly.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by SebastianofMoon
28
BTC bullflag and what to expect in the coming weeksAfter exactly one day of action, BTC wants to make you fall asleep again. I think we won't see a fast climb to 5000, that scenario is for me completely off the table. Instead, the new bullflag will probably break to the upside at some point, and then BTC will bore us to death by rising very slowly upwards, towards a maximum of 4600. It wants to rise slowly, so that the weekly Stoch RSI is nicely overbought at 80-100, and the weekly RSI also rises a bit again, after having been very low. This is of course all in preparation for an epic dump. If we take the magnitude of the last dump, which went without any major bounces from 6500 to 3200, we could easily go from 4600 to 2000, maybe even lower for a very short time. I am just not buying into the "probability for bitcoin bottom has greatly increased" narrative, some traders are suddenly proclaiming, just because BTC is pumping a bit. Reasons why 3200 has NOT been the bottom: 1. Daily transactions are still below ATH, the bearmarket historically only ended when daily transactions were at least 20% above the previous ATH 2. We are still very far away from the halving in mid 2020 3. I think stocks will see another sell wave this year, and since wallstreet is now actively involved in BTC, they will just treat BTC as any other asset, and also sell BTC 4. The sentiment is still far too optimistic imho. Just look at all the people who everytime think that we have reached the bottom. Normally, we have the bottom when there is absolute despair, and even hardcore BTC fans become doubts, and everyone has brutal panic, and a feeling of hopelessness is everywhere, THEN we'll have the bottom. 5. The cycle time gets longer every cycle. It is illogical to think that this bitcoin cycle is exactly as long as the last one. The cycle time increases every cycle, which makes absolute sense, since BTC is gaining more mass 6. The MAs that provided support, increased in number, every bearmarket. In 2012 it was the MA100. In 2014/15 it was the MA200. It is logical to assume that it now will be the MA300 that provides solid support. Well, these are my reasons to remain calm and not euphoric about the recent rise. I'll patiently wait to re-enter BTC, but this point will certainly be reached sometime this year, probably in the next 2-4 months. I am long till mid 4000s, then opening shorts when we near the log resistance.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by SebastianofMoon
11