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LOGARITHMIC

AAPL Update: Log Chart Reveals Key Levels and CluesPrimary Chart: Parallel Channel Defining Downtrend from All-Time High, Uptrend Line from Covid Lows Through June 2022 Low, Fibonacci Levels AAPL's logarithmic chart reveals some interesting technical facts that are not as apparent on a linear / arithmetic chart. 1. AAPL remains in a trading range. This range developed and persisted over the past month. The top of the range is about $157 and the bottom of the range is about $134 (lows on October 13, 2022). The breakout of this range may determine the next multi-week trend leg in AAPL. Supplementary Chart: 65m Chart Showing Chop Range for AAPL over Past Month 2. Uptrend Line from March 2020 through June 2022. First, consider the uptrend line (light blue) from the Covid 2020 lows that connects through the June 2022 low. On October 12, 2022, SquishTrade discussed this trendline, showing it on both linear and logarithmic charts. This TL formed the lower boundary of a very large multi-month triangle. SquishTrade's previous AAPL post forecasted whipsaws around this trendline stating on October 12, 2022 as follows: "But when multi-month triangles like this break, and when multi-year trendlines like this break, it should be expected this could be a process rather than a quick event, assuming the trendline is valid. In part, this is because multi-year trendlines and multi-month triangles do not break and dissipate easily. The lower trendline of the triangle pattern is a multi-year trendline from the Covid lows to the present. Price does not always just break right through such an important level. On occasion, it can slice right through a level deemed consequential and long-term. But often when encountering a very important longer-term level, price can tag it, then break it repeatedly in both directions, whipsawing above and below the line a few times before following the ultimate direction it will take. Or it can break the line and then retest it from underneath a couple times as well." On the Primary Chart for October 12, 2022, SquishTrade stated: "watch for a retest or whipsaw moves around this line." The expected whipsaw has occurred to an even greater degree than was expected. Notice on today's Primary Chart the black line showing seven breakouts above and below the line. Price has been whipsawing back and forth around this TL for more than four weeks (since September 29, 2022). On the log chart, price seems to be making progress, however, back to the downside. But with the long lower wick on the candle for November 4, 2022, one might expect yet another retest or whipsaw before moving lower. If AAPL were to retest this TL, the retest would be at approximately 152.70 if it were to occur next week—the line slopes, so the retest resistance level increases with each day that passes. 3. Major Support and Target Areas in the $128-$131 range . The immediate support zone arises at the base of the parallel channel, currently at $130-$131. The VWAP anchored to the 2020 low lies around $128.03 over the next few days. SquishTrade forecasts that AAPL will reach $128-$131 within the coming weeks or couple months though this will not likely happen in a straight line given the choppy price action in both AAPL and equity indices like SPX and NDX. This $128-131 level shows confluence with the YTD price low at $129.04 as well as a key Fibonacci level at $133. 4. Major Support and Target Areas in the $114 to $122 range. If this $128-131 target is reached and violated to the downside, then further downside targets will be considered as viable and effective. The next lower targets are (i) a Fiboancci projection at $122.25, (ii) a long-term Fibonacci retracement at $118.02 (.50 Fib retracement of the 2020-2022 rally on a linear chart), and (iii) another key Fibonacci retracement at $114.07 (.382 Fibonacci retracement of 2020-2022 rally on a logarithmic chart). This area should be considered as a significant support / target zone from $114 to $122.
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by SquishTrade
48
down a little or up a lotI suspect crypto entered peak despair, after Celsius, BlockFi, 3AC, FTX, etc. self destructed. It’s actually a net positive when these scams go under. It purges derivatives that dilute the supply from the market. There are still a few more fractional reserve banking scams that I’d like to see walk the plank, but the lion’s share has already been nuked. So I think we could take one more wick down to the 100 MA, which correlates with the top of the 2019 squeeze at about 13k-ish. What makes me think the bear could be dead, is with all the ballyhoo over FTX drama, the drop was much smaller than the Terra Luna rug.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by KekistaniCentralBank
The unknown obvious: when to use log-scaleThere's a semi-wide-spread snake oil "wisdom" in near-quant circles that you need to use log-charts/log-scale/log-transform all the time. No, you need to use it only when the range of the data been processed exceeds one order of magnitude (data maximum at least 10 times data minimum). Before dat, no-no! Please, don't stabilize the variance unless it'll asks you to. Now bringing your attention to the important detail -> data 'being processed'. It means that you don't push the log button when your chart's arbitrary time range is 456-986755. You push dat button when the particular domain (part of the chart) you analyze does exceed one order of magnitude. P.S.: disregard the studies applied, it's all R&D
NYMEX:NG1!Education
by gorx1
Epic Fail of Bitcoin in logarithmic Regression [Weekly]Hi everyone, There has been many references to the weekly logarithmic regression of Bitcoin that claimed it never failed from the time of its creation by Satoshi Nakamoto. it has been promoted on social media for a long time by serious advocates such as PlanB or many others on twitter. But as you can see on the chart, in November of 2022 the logarithmic regression failed to support the price for the first time in Bitcoin history. Bitcoin is relatively a new class of asset in comparison with Gold for instance and I believe one should be very cautious with it in regard to its short history, especially in times of a possible recession. FYI, Logarithmic regression is a type of regression used to model situations where growth or decay accelerates rapidly at first and then slows over time. more in-depth elaboration of its math and logic is available at : heartbeat.comet.ml Please manage your risk responsibly and make informed decisions. Good luck!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Shamshiri_Investments
6
How I see BitcoinHello everyone, this is how I see Bitcoin in the long run. Looking at the weekly timeframe, I am still bearish on Bitcoin right now as it is still trading below the 200-EMA since June 16th, 2022. Also, we're currently in a technical recession after the FED of Atlanta has estimated a negative -2.1% for Quarter 2 of 2022. We already had a negative -1.6% decline for Quarter 1 and now after the FED of Atlanta released their estimates, we're definitely in the technicalities of a recession. If you don't believe we're in a recession right now, just look awful the big retailers did for their Quarter 1 earnings. Walmart and Target did terrible as their revenue went down from consumers cutting their spending due to inflation and of course the cost of gas/diesel, affecting truckers and consumers. Look at Target, when their Q1 earnings were released on May 18th, 2022; they had an excessive inventory as Target highlighted that there is less customer traffic in their stores, meaning that consumers are not spending as much simply because everything is getting too damn expensive, due to inflation! As consumers cut back on their spending, it will obviously affect the GDP. Just look at the consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan. It's at the lowest it has ever been recorded. It's not just consumer spending, look at how many times the 2-year and 10-year treasury yields have inverted this year. The 2-year and 10-year treasury yields have inverted multiple times in February, March, April, May, and today, as of typing this right now. Many tech companies like Coinbase, Meta, Tesla, etc., have all stopped hiring people since May of 2022, in order to cut back on Salaries and Wages Expenses, due to inflation and bad market sentiment. I could keep going on and on as there are many indicators of a recession. Obviously, we still have to wait for an official announcement from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis on July 28th, 2022; whether we're in a recession or not. How does this all relate to Bitcoin? Well, for the past 4 months, every time the CPI data was released, Bitcoin always had a negative reaction to it. As inflation increases, this will cause the markets to dip even further, meaning that investors will draw away from their investments and will be on cash instead during a recession. Since we are in technicalities of a recession due to the FED of Atlanta, expect the stock market to have a negative reaction, causing the price of shares to go down, which in result, will cause a negative reaction to the crypto market in the short-term. So July 13th (CPI Data Release) and July 28th (Real GDP Data Release) will be two important days for July 2022. In the meantime, just because I am bearish on Bitcoin doesn't necessarily mean it's the end of the world. I am still bullish on Bitcoin for the long run. Just zoom-out and relax. Disclaimer: (I am not a financial advisor! Always conduct your own research before investing.)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by brandonreymejia
BTC Struggles to Hold the Logarithmic LinePrimary Chart: Logarithmic Trendlines on Weekly Charts Recently, an article discussed a long-term logarithmic trendline that BTC's price had reached. Supplementary Charts: BTC Reached a Long-Term Logarithmic Trendline This post provides an update on that trendline, and it adds a couple more log trendlines for consideration, all of which are on weekly charts to give a longer-term picture of the trend. Several trendlines have been drawn to try to make the analysis as objective as possible. Trendlines are inherently subjective—they often can be drawn at various locations within a range and be affected by the bias of the chartist. Questions can arise whether to include extreme price points as touchpoints or treat them as whipsaws above or below the line. So this post attempts to add several trendlines to remove some of this subjectivity and bias, while recognizing that no trendline or group of trendlines can be completely objective. Note how BTC broke the upper trendline (light blue). BTC has been struggling at the lower two trendlines (orange and dark blue). Price has spent a great deal of time holding tightly at these lines. The lines have been both support and resistance in recent weeks. As of the date of this publication, price has recovered very slightly above these two lines. So while price has been holding both lines, it has been doing in a weak manner. One cannot argue that BTC's price action lately (on larger time frames) has been strong. But when looking at daily charts, though there has been some recent strength in the past few days coinciding with equity indices' strength. One line of technical analysis posits that when price declines to an upward trendline and crawls along the line, spending a great deal of time on the line, this shows weakness and portends a potential break of that trendline later. One counterargument is that price briefly broke below these lines but has recovered. This failed breakdown may signal a few days or weeks of strength. But with price action in crypto and equities being so tricky and choppy, anything can happen. Sometimes it's best not to trade the chop and just protect capital. It's good practice to remain patient and wait for the A+ setups. Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction. BITSTAMP:BTCUSD COINBASE:BTCUSD KRAKEN:BTCUSD BINANCE:BTCUSDT FTX:BITOUSD KUCOIN:BTCUSDT CME:BTC1!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by SquishTrade
6
When Will DXY (Dollar Index) Resume Its Devastating Uptrend?Primary Chart: Linear Regression Channel for DXY on Daily Chart, Upward Trendline from November 2021, and Parallel Channel from 2008 DXY Lows Since the low on January 6, 2021, DXY (the dollar weighted against a basket of several other major currencies) has ripped about 28.66% higher, causing ripple effects in equity markets, commodities, and international trade. This has been massive run that has pushed DXY to within a proximate range of a 21-year high at 121.05, a level last reached in July 2001 during the bear market of 2000-2002. Supplementary Chart A: Weekly Chart of DXY with a Parallel Channel Showing the Uptrend Since 2008 along with the 21-Year High on July 2021 The Primary Chart shows a linear regression channel set at +/- 2 standard deviations. The channel runs from the lows on October 27, 2021. The current pullback in the US Dollar Index is nearing a -2 standard deviation move. At the lower edge of the channel will equal -2 standard deviations from the linear regression line (at the center of the channel). Interestingly, the lower boundary of this regression channel coincides to some extent (not perfectly) with the upward trendline drawn on the Primary Chart. But when the chart is switched to logarithmic, the up trendline runs nearly parallel with the lower bound of the regression channel. This parallel relationship between the up trendline and regression channel's lower boundary is posted in Supplementary Chart B below. Supplementary Chart B: Logarithmic Trendline from October 2021 to Present Date Next, consider a slightly longer-term trend reflected by a somewhat longer regression channel shown on a weekly chart. This regression channel shows that the recent pullback has not even reached the midpoint of the channel at the linear regression line, though it could pull back to that area. This somewhat longer-term trend has been shown to illustrate the strength of this trend and to contextualize the pullback, which remains very mild in light of this larger-degree trend. Strong trends generally tend to continue after corrective retracements rather than reverse—though the crash in equities this year shows that strong trends can and do reverse at some point. Supplementary Chart C: 2-Year Linear Regression Channel from January 2021 Fibonacci price analysis also provides a plausible technical argument for why DXY could end its pullback near the upward trendline support and the regression channel's lower boundary. This Fibonacci projection (or a measured move) appears on the Primary Chart above, and it shows that the 1.00 to 1.272 zone (where the two segments of the current decline are equal or nearly so) ranges from 107.93 to 109.21. Could this be where DXY reverses back higher to continue it's trend? Could this be where DXY moves back into the center of its channel? Given the strength of the trend over the past 2 years, this area seems like a spot where some significant chance exists for a reversal higher. Much will depend on the FOMC meeting on November 1-2, 2022. If DXY turns back higher, then it may well be that equity indices stall around the same time and turn back lower. Finally, consider a major weakness in the bull case in the intermediate term. Price has tested the top of the very long-term parallel channel now three times, as shown by the blue arrows on the Primary Chart. This makes sense that price would reject here given the long-term nature of this dynamic resistance level at the top of the parallel channel. This area is now weaker, though given the repeated contact price has had with it, including a few minor breaks that didn't last. Will price reject lower again on the next retest of the return line at the upper bound of the parallel channel? Or will it overthrow the parallel channel's upper bound in a final multi-week exhaustion move? An alternative is to target 116-117 in the index as the next upside target. If the parallel channel is redrawn on a logarithmic chart, channel resistance has not yet been tested yet in September and October 2022. In fact, the next push higher could test the upper channel on the log chart at 116-117. Supplementary Chart D: Parallel Channel Drawn on Logarithmic Chart Feel free to post your argument in the comments below! ________________________________________ Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed. Please note further that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for the near term. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. And countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is lower probability and is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
TVC:DXYLong
by SquishTrade
10
ETH Headed to New Lows Unfortunately, $569 PT Primary Chart: 2D Chart of ETH Showing Fibonacci Targets ETH and most cryptos are moving fast so this post will be brief. But ETH is headed to new lows. It has sliced through every single major retracement of the rally off the June 18, 2022 low. Squish has remained bearish on BTC and other cryptos despite very brief counter-trend forecasts on occasion to take into account the strength from bear rallies. ETH is plummeting along with the rest of the crypto market due to a well-publicized liquidity crisis that has seen SBF's net worth fall over 95%. Further, crypto market cap just broke below a long-term logarithmic TL. That strengthens the bearish outlook for the entire crypto space given the nature of the break. Supplementary Chart: Total Crypto Market Cap with Long-Term TL Squish's first price target is the YTD low around $880. The second price target is $569 , which is still conservative. Yes, that sounds extreme, but for those who lost 80% from buying at the peak, consider that buying at $1000 can quickly lead to a -50% to -60% loss. Caution is warranted for anything other than well-managed, disciplined trades for counter-trend bounces, which are actually low probability as @Scheplick discussed today in a livestream (highly recommend his livestream events in the future). The most aggressive downside target target is $367, which should not be considered unless and until price falls below $569 decisively. This is the measured-move area as well as a Fibonacci 1.00 projection of the first major segment of the decline projected from the peak of the summer's rally. ________________________________________ Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed. Please note further that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for the near term. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. And countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is lower probability and is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
Short
by SquishTrade
11
NVDA: Early Bears Punished by Devious WhipsawPrimary Chart: Two Downward Trendlines, Fibonacci Levels, Major Resistance Zone and Anchored VWAP from October 13 Low Early bears jumping in to short NVDA last week were punished when NVDA's apparent breakdown failed. NVDA broke decisively below key Fibonacci support as well as an upward TL off the YTD lows from mid-October 2022. But then this breakdown utterly failed with price moving right back up above the TL and into the parallel channel off the YTD lows. Price also reclaimed that key Fibonacci level at $134.85 (the .382 retracement shown as a purple line). Now price remains squarely within the parallel channel, but on Friday last week, it rallied smack into resistance at the August 4, 2022, VWAP (orange). This VWAP lies at $141.78. Price may pull back from this level a bit even if later it wants to push a bit higher before starting the next leg downward. SquishTrade monitors the $145.87 to $150.67 range as a key resistance level where NVDA's bear rally could ultimately fail. No one can predict the future, so it's important to stay open minded to probabilities rather than remaining married to a viewpoint such as a rigid bearish or bullish argument. Markets love to destroy well-supported but overly rigid viewpoints. In short, the probability of the downtrend resuming continues to increase as NVDA rises higher. The downtrend line and pink resistance zone ($145-$151) marks a key spot where the probabilities for a downward move seem better as long as risk is managed with with a tight stop above this key level. SquishTrade recommends continuing to watch DXY and interest rates as this market remains challenging and tricky. A more conservative approach may be to wait for confirmation rather than getting bearish right at major resistance. The reason for this approach is that one never knows when a bear rally will end, and markets love to whipsaw before starting their real trend move, and this is true especially this year. Some may see a break above the down TL from March 29, 2022 (light blue TL). The linear chart below shows this TL as having been violated to the upside. But keep in mind that the Primary Chart which is logarithmic shows that this TL has not been touched yet since August 2022. The chart below shows the linear chart's version of the TL break. But on both linear and log charts, the longer-term down TL (gold) has not been broken, and that lies significantly overhead. Supplementary Chart: Linear Chart Showing TL Break SquishTrade has been watching NVDA for a short setup, and will continue to monitor how price responds to some key resistance levels. SquishTrade prefers not to consider shorts before earnings. Sure, this may result in missing the move as with AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT in recent weeks. But it also may mean missing the complete annihilation of a position as with bears on AAPL or bulls on GOOGL and AMZN around earnings reports in recent days. And with CPI in the US being released this week (November 10, 2022)—and CPI reports have almost started becoming like FOMC days in terms of volatility in equity markets—and with midterm elections on Tuesday, markets could wipe out a fair number of poorly positioned bears and bulls alike this week. Caution is recommended. Wait for the best setups, the right setups for your trading strategy and approach. And remember, there will always be more setups, so don't let FOMO cloud judgment. Bears can get the same degree of FOMO as the most optimistic bulls. ________________________________________ Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed. Please note further that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for the near term. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. And countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is lower probability and is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by SquishTrade
15
#BTC - Technical' s are saying bottom#BTC - Technical' s are saying bottom Let's ignore the world burning at for a minute and look at the pure BTC technical' s. A lot of people look to Plan B's - Stock To Flow. We look to TheBlockDoc's BTC Growth Curve. Why because it takes a combination of factors into consideration to determine this logarithmic curve (If you want to learn more then join Labs!). This is our Top/Bottom Indicator. A couple of extremely significant signals have popped up we have now challenged the bottom percentile (This basically means BTC has spent less than 0.01% of its time in this area) occuring only once per the past 3 halvings - the other key indicator here is the Inverse Pi Cycle bottom has been trigger 126 days ago waiting for the reversal to come previously there has been a 146 day and a 260 day wait for this reversal. What are we saying? Based on the Growth curve we are preparing for the reversal.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Kryptochristian
9
BTC's Logarithmic TL vs. Linear TL: Vote Now!Primary Chart: BTC's Logarithmic Trendline from the All-Time High to the Present Date BTCUSD's current down trendline reflecting the primary trend can be drawn on either a logarithmic or linear chart. Both charts are used in technical analysis. Logarithmic charts tend to be better at conveying accurate proportions of price action on charts covering a lengthy period of time and a broad span of price action. In the case of BTC, why does it matter? Look at the down trendline drawn on a linear chart (Supplementary Chart below) connecting the same all-time high in November 2021 and the March 28-April 5, 2022 peaks. Notice the breakout? Supplementary Chart: BTC's Linear Trendline from the All-Time High to Present Date Other evidence suggests that the downtrend is not over yet and new lows are likely. But the choppy and trap-filled price action since June 2022 has made it difficult for any directional traders long or short. Care to vote in the comments? It's probably true that each vote reflects the conclusions each of us has reached, and our general market expectations. My vote is that the logarithmic chart is the better TL. But my posts have remained fairly bearish this year, so this may reflect my underlying expectation that no new uptrend is being established in crypto assets despite any sharp bear rallies in the near term. Here are some of the technical reasons (in prior posts linked below) for remaining bearish. But for each of these reasons, there may be other keen technical or fundamental arguments being made for why the lows are very near. Bearish arguments in prior posts: Have a great trading week! ________________________________________ Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed. Please note further that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for the near term. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. And countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is lower probability and is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
Short
by SquishTrade
19
Will Bitcoin ever break above it's old trend line? #2 Hey fellow traders and Bitcoin enthusiast, A month a go I made chart labeled "will bitcoin ever break above it's old trend line?' It was met with overwhelming response from the community as it was my most popularity chart. The charts focus was a look into the indicator "BTC Log Rainbow" coded by BullRider802. I wanted to look even deeper into this chart and indicator and see if there is any confluence to it with any other indicator.... Well I have found one. "HTF Log Curves Oscillator" coded by quantadelic is the one on the bottom and it's showing the same exact thing. So we have to different Indicators coded by two different coders literally telling us the same thing! As we can clearly see the HTF was in a clear trading channel bitcoins entire existence and then show's a breach in 2020 as the other did, price action then shows a quick recovery to the eventual lack of hitting the top of the channel and the ultimate break though the bottom. What does this mean? To me, first off, It means the math and coding used is sound. Both indicators separate from each other are reacting in the same way, and we might need to pay attention. Why do we need to pay attention? The age old saying in investing is why, what was previous support is future resistance. These could very well show us the next bitcoin top and or bottom. The one thing that is for sure is they are both either showing a slow down in bitcoins parabola or a consolidation period. That still remains to be seen. Follow along with me and let's find out together. I would like to thank everyone who has recently followed me, liked the chart and the Tradingview team for recognizing my work and helping this view get out. Once again the support and response has truly been overwhelming. Thank you. Please feel free to comment your thoughts or questions down below. Remember, WeAreSat0shi Stay blessed!
BNC:BLX
by WeAreSat0shi
AAPL's Four-Month Triangle May Be BreakingPrimary Chart: AAPL's Four-Month Triangle with Various Trendlines and VWAPs SUMMARY: AAPL's longer-term charts show a symmetrical triangle arising from the convergence of a down trendline from January 2022 (dark blue) and an up trendline from March 2020 lows (also dark blue). This triangle appears to be in the process of breaking on arithmetic charts. When considering that long-term trendlines don't break easily, price may retest or whipsaw above and below this long-term up trendline (from March 2020 lows) two or more times before the line can finally break decisively. The first major level of importance below this 2020-2022 up trendline is the VWAP anchored to the 2020 lows. This VWAP lies at approximately 127.61 today. On a logarithmic chart , this VWAP coincides with a longer-term up trendline in the coming 2-4 months (see Supplementary Chart B below). This is probably the most conservative downside target if the bear market continues to pressure prices lower. Another anchored VWAP from the January 2019 lows is approximately at 102.45. This level coincides with the .618 retracement of the 2020-2022 rally starting at the Covid lows, which equals 102.71. See Primary Chart. But before discussing these levels around $102-$103, price must first break through the .50 retracement of its 2.5-year rally from March 2020 to January 2022. The .50 retracement lies at $118.02 . Another long-term up trendline from the January 2019 low appears on the Primary Chart in light blue. This even longer-term trendline coincides with the .618 retracement of the 2020-2022 rally off the Covid lows and the VWAP anchored to the January 2019 low. If this long-term trendline is tested next year in January or February, it would be about $102-$103, the same level as the VWAP from the January 2019 low and the .618 retracement of the 2020-2022 rally—where the yellow circle appears on the Primary Chart. Could this be where AAPL puts in a lasting bottom at 102-103? This analysis will briefly cover some of the broader and longer-term levels for AAPL. If the downtrend continues as it has, and the macroeconomic and interest-rate environment remains challenging for equities, AAPL may reach the levels identified. AAPL's four-month triangle has formed from the convergence of two trendlines: (1) a downward-sloping trendline from its all-time high to the present (dark blue) and (2) an upward-sloping trendline from the pandemic-crash low in March 2020 to the present (also dark blue). On an arithmetic chart, AAPL appears to have violated this multi-year upward trendline in recent days with a couple closes below the line. One interesting perspective on the 2020-2022 trendline appears on a logarithmic chart. AAPL has shown a more decisive break of this 2020-2022 up trendline, which appears as an orange line on this Supplementary Chart below: Supplementary Chart A: Logarithmic Chart with Upward Trendlines from March 2020 low and January 2019 Low But when multi-month triangles like this break, and when multi-year trendlines like this break, it should be expected this could be a process rather than a quick event, assuming the trendline is valid. In part, this is because multi-year trendlines and multi-month triangles do not break and dissipate easily. The lower trendline of the triangle pattern is a multi-year trendline from the Covid lows to the present. Price does not always just break right through such an important level. On occasion, it can slice right through a level deemed consequential and long-term. But often when encountering a very important longer-term level, price can tag it, then break it repeatedly in both directions, whipsawing above and below the line a few times before following the ultimate direction it will take. Or it can break the line and then retest it from underneath a couple times as well. Levels of importance below this trendline are the VWAP anchored to the March 2020 low. The anchored VWAP from this 2020 lows is shown in light red. Currently, that VWAP lies at $127.61, but this can change over time due to the dynamic nature of VWAP calculations. Because it is longer-term, it shouldn't change too dramatically in the coming days or weeks unless a very sizeable rally or crash takes place. Another longer-term anchored VWAP from the January 2019 lows is approximately at 102.45. This level currently coincides with the .618 retracement of the 2020-2022 rally starting at the Covid lows, which lies at 102.71. See Primary Chart. But before discussing this 2019 anchored VWAP and .618 retracement around $102, price must first break through the .50 retracement of its rally from March 2020 to January 2022. The .50 retracement lies at $118.02 . Another even longer-term trendline can be drawn from the January 2019 low to the present. This trendline intersects with the .618 retracement early next year in January to February 2023 (see the yellow circle on the Primary Chart). This level also coincides with the approximate location of the 2019 anchored VWAP (dark purple)—the current trajectory of this 2019 anchored VWAP looks as if it may run near or through the yellow circle in the next 3-5 months. Ultimately, this is not intended to be a bold, heroic prediction that AAPL will certaintly reach $127, $118, or $102. If the downtrend structure continues to remain intact, and rallies get sold, then these are viable targets. In short, this is just a technical overview showing that these levels are higher probability targets that could likely be reached if AAPL continues the path of least resistance lower. Lastly, consider the March 2020 anchored VWAPs discussed in this post and its relationship to the same trendlines discussed except drawn on a logarithmic chart. The 2019-2022 trendline (light blue) coincides with the March 2020 anchored VWAP (or nearly does). This level will be about $127-$130 in 1-3 months. So perhaps this can be both a conservative target or a more intermediate term low in this bear. Supplementary Chart B: Anchored VWAPs Position Relative to Logarithmic Trendlines
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by SquishTrade
5
DJI (1897 to 2022) log channel reality checkCharting all possible events is useful, however unlikely they may be. Logarithmic channel drawn from 1897. Overshoot in 1929 and symmetrical undershoot 1932. Throw-over and rejection 1987. DJI entered hyperlogarithmic growth post-1995. Bounce off channel top trendline 2009. Maximum downside from 2022 high (symmetrical undershoot): -90% loss - In "no bail-outs" scenario á la Great Depression. Validity of analysis: These are straight lines roughly drawn for 120 years of data from an arbitrary cutoff point, what do you think? Probability of risk: Unknown to uncategorizable.
TVC:DJI
by Smitty61
Jumping S-curvesIn this post, I will explain what jumping S-curves means and how you can identify potential S-curves before they jump . First, let's begin with the chart above (also copied below). This is a yearly chart of McKesson Corporation (MCK), a medical supplies company. As you can see in the chart below, this stock has been soaring over the past year despite most other stocks being significantly lower. Here is the performance of the S&P 500 over the same time period. Whenever I see something highly unusual in a chart, such as extreme outperformance, I check the higher timeframes to see what's driving price on a technical level. Below is the yearly chart for MCK. When I examine price action over a long time period, I always log adjust my chart. Below is the log-adjusted chart. Upon seeing this chart I immediately knew what was going on: the stock price jumped S-curves. I will try to illustrate below how I reached this conclusion. To begin, I drew Fibonacci levels from the last reaction low to the last reaction high on the yearly timeframe. The previous reaction low was the bottom of 2008 because that bottom was a Fibonacci retracement of some earlier reaction high, the reaction high is the top in 2015 because price did not surpass that high without first undergoing a Fibonacci retracement (to the golden ratio). As you can see above, from 2015 to 2018 the price retraced down to the golden ratio (0.618) on the yearly chart. It is often from this retracement level that the base of the second S-curve is created. (For simplicity, I only included the 0.618 Fibonacci level on the chart). Some may say that this pattern is merely a bull flag or pennant. (See chart below) Indeed, bull flags and pennants can be another way to visualize S-curve jumps. Whereas, on a deeper, more mathematical level, S-curve jumps are logarithmic spirals (approximated as Fibonacci spirals or Golden spirals). If you wish to delve deeper into logarithmic spirals, including the Golden spiral, you can check out this Wikipedia page: en.wikipedia.org These Fibonacci or Golden spirals are present on mostly every chart and they appear on mostly every timeframe (hence they are fractal ). One of the best charts you can use to visualize these spirals is the chart of Bitcoin. Below are charts of Bitcoin which attempt to show the endless fractal nature of Fibonacci spirals (or "S-curve jumps"). I've only illustrated a few of the spirals, but indeed there are numerous spirals. (I tried to do my best using the tools on Trading View to draw these spirals, but it can be quite hard to manipulate the curves perfectly to price action.) One may ask what about when price falls? That is obviously not an S-curve jump since the price is falling. Actually, when price is crashing it is usually just an S-curve jump, or Fibonacci spiral, on the inverted chart. Although I have not tested it with scientific rigor, I do hypothesize that Bitcoin's price movement is a series of infinitely fractal and competing Fibonacci spirals on various timeframes, including Fibonacci spirals on inverted scales. Price movement can be thought of as an infinite series of S-curve dilemmas where infinitely fractal S-curves, including those of which are inverse S-curves, compete to govern the next price move. Each dilemma is resolved when an S-curve reaches its inflection point, such that it governs price movement and price moves rapidly in that direction until it approaches capacity and faces its next dilemma. Those who know Calculus may recognize this chart. Indeed this is the graph of a logistic function. The mathematical terminology for an "S-curve" is sigmoid function . Here are some more interesting charts of S-curves (none of which is intended to be investment advice) Meridian Bioscience (VIVO) jumps S-curves on its yearly chart The U.S. Dollar Index jumps S-curves on its yearly chart The entire price action of Chinese EV Company (NIO) is an S-curve that just completed a perfect golden ratio retracement Japan's faces a population S-curve dilemma Citigroup underwent S-curve growth up until the Great Recession. Then it crashed or underwent S-curve growth on the inverted chart. In summary, price movement involves an endless series of S-curves or Fibonacci spirals. Identifying an S-curve on a high time frame before it reaches its inflection point and breaks out can lead to tremendous gains (among the most lucrative gains one can realistically make in the financial markets).
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NYSE:MCKEducation
by SpyMasterTrades
22